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Ancient Trading Concepts
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Ancient Trading Concepts

by The MoleApril 9, 2019

I didn’t feel particularly inspired to post a market update today, so let’s mix things up a little and talk about trend trading. I wager that you’re familiar with the careers of world renowned trend traders like Ed Seykota, Tom Basso, Richard Dennis, or Bruce Kovner, which means you probably understand the basic paradigm behind ‘buying high and selling low’.

It’s a concept that runs exactly orthogonal to our core human instincts, which of course are to buy as low as possible and to short the market right before it’s about to fall off the plate. Not that there is anything wrong with the basic premise – however I really don’t think I yet again have to elaborate on why a chronic contrarian perspective is not only deeply flawed but in the vast majority of cases leads to devastated trading accounts.

Another name you’ve probably heard of is Richard Donchian. This handsome fellow happens to be credited with being the father of trend following. In fact Donchian’s original technical trading system became the foundation upon which later trend followers would build their own systems. Where do you think the famed Turtle system evolved from?

“Okay, thanks for the history lesson, Mole – but how valid are trend trading concepts in today’s fast paced HFT driven market?”

Well as with all things in trading you’ll be the judge! I for one find them extremely helpful when it comes to separating trending phases from everything else. You may recall that as a professor emeritus of mathematics at MIT Benoit Mandelbrot ran an extensive statistical analysis on the trending behavior of cotton futures, and he found out that 87% of all large price moves occurred in only 11% of the time.

And although not every single market is the same in general markets spend the vast majority of their time in clearly defined ranges until they suddenly shoot higher or sometimes start free falling lower. This phenomenon is being observed on all intervals but is most pronounced on minute based and hourly charts.

The indicator you are looking at above is, you guessed it, a Donchian Channel running against the E-Mini futures, which I’ve set to a range of 50 60-min candles. It’s probably one of the simplest price indicators one could imagine. The upper band marks the highest price of a security over N periods while the lower band marks the lowest price of a security over N periods.

The labels I’ve slapped on the chart point at two types of behavior – one is widely known as trend triggers and the other is one I’ve coined myself: detachment incidents – which refer specifically to a reversal after a period of consecutive Donchian band touches.

And what becomes immediately clear is that there are many Ds and very few Ts. I count only six Ts but 13 Ds – so the ratio is > 2:1, one again confirming that Mandelbrot’s findings regarding trending behavior hold up to this day and I don’t expect them to change anytime soon.

But back to the detachment incidents – does anything in particular stand out to you? Well, for one it seems to me that D incidents happen in the late stages of advances and are a precursor to an eventual reversal. Of course sometimes the market just turns on a dime without warning and that’s that.

But even then I see something worth nothing – when a market detaches from its upper Donchian without a retest it appears to be taking the express elevator to the other side. Fascinating!

Here’s another example and it’s the E-Mini again all the way into yesterday’s close. Let’s do a quick count: Depending on how you label it we’ve got 12+ Ds and only 4 or 5 Ts (sometimes trending starts and is quickly reversed, so I’m uncertain how exactly to count it).

The same observations I made above seem to hold true here as well. Most recently we see a bit more trending action and quite obviously it makes the point that a market which continues to advance to new highs should never ever be shorted.

Also worth pointing out is the fact that a D quickly followed by a T also almost always leads higher albeit it’s usually accompanied by a bit more realized volatility. And if you see Ts taking turns with Ds followed by a shallow retest of the center line then the market is most likely engaged in a low volatility melt up.

You rarely see this behavior on the way down (which is a lot more violent). At least in equities that is, I should point out that LV declines happen quite a bit in the futures as well as to some extent in forex.

All of my observations above and many more tie directly into system rules that over time have defined core trend trading disciplines:

  • Buy high.
  • Sell low.
  • Buy dips in an uptrend.
  • Sell rallies in a downtrend.
  • Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • Read the charts, not the news.
  • Set and forget you’re trades.
  • Don’t try to pick tops or bottoms.
  • Cut your losers short.
  • Let your winners run.
  • Keep a long term perspective.
  • Stick to the plan.

Now this post isn’t supposed to be a soft sell for trend trading – my mere intent was to show how very simple concepts perceived as antiquated by some can still offer us great value. In terms of basic tape reading the ole’ Donchian channel has repeatedly delivered me valuable insights about the market’s two main modi operandi:

Trending (11%) and everything else (89%).

While most traders are fanatic about picking tops and bottoms my main perspective has long been one of differentiating between trending and non-trending market phases. Which in turn has made a profoundly positive impact on my own discretionary trading results.

Ancient King In Your Palm

By the way since we’re on the topic of ‘ancient’ concepts and ideas, which admittedly was a bit tongue-in-cheek: Take a look at your mobile phone right now, right there on the top right. Unless your phone is older than 5 years you most likely see this strange symbol:

It’s of course the symbol for Bluetooth which is a short range wireless standard that has effectively become a standard worldwide. What you may not know is that it’s actually a bind-rune (a merger of two runes together) that spell out the initials of Harald Bluetooth.

If you’re curious about a long dead Danish king managed to get his initials onto a 21st century technology then read the whole story here.


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
Enjoyed this post? Consider a small donation to keep those evil deeds coming!

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  • bankwalker

    Good Morning Sir Mole.

    Thank you for the most excellent post.

    Do you always include overnight data in your /ES (and other markets) analysis?

    What is your reasoning behind this?

  • Sp00nman

    Thanks for the post Mole, I really like these analytical types of posts in terms of how you trade and a different way of looking at things. I was reading a book and one of the good points made is that trend trading long and short works in futures and a variety of assets classes, but the short side doesn’t work in equities. The equity market has a natural upward slant/bias and thus something like a short only mean reversion system is like trying to swim upstream. Can it be done? Sure, but it’s simply not smart.

    Anyway, just something to chew on for those that can get overly bearish with their bias (I was). I’ve noticed how you are always more reluctant to take the short trades on ES, and you’ve stated such (how the market has an upward bias), but I think it bears repeating. I haven’t been around too long, but have seen a few folks come through here saying you’re biased to the upside for ES, and the obvious response to that is, that’s how the equity market says you should be. I’ll stop my rambling.

  • ridingwaves

    Great post…..

  • zzezzezz

    Thank you sir. I love the “core trend trading disciplines” you listed.

  • BobbyLow

    Excellent!!!!!!!!!!!!

    I would like to add that IMO, a trend can be in whatever time frame that I want it to be. For example if I’m basically trading 3 Hour Charts that turn over every 3 days then I could care less what kind of trend a weekly chart is in. This is for relatively short term trend trading that can sometimes run longer. BTW, yesterday, I said that Wheat was being a PITA and just before the close yesterday there was more of an indication of more short term weakness then upside so I flipped to short. If it begins to go the other way, I’ll flip it again until I get a run.

    Nothing new under the sun. Just buying strength and selling weakness within a given time frame.

  • ridingwaves

    i’m just closing it out, not enough juice to move it one way or the other it seems…

  • BobbyLow

    Probably a good idea RW.

    Still looking for a spring run but it wants to play games I guess.

  • ridingwaves

    gold has all my interest now, the chart is a screaming buy via my lens, think we might see 1400’s again once it clears up thru congestion..

    AVXL is getting pushed around on low volume to the area I kind of suspected they would push it too, they are presenting today….longer term trend here…

  • HD

    Great post! certainly equities trend more than 11% of the time though.

  • HD

    HD Mod • 20 hours ago
    FWIW per the EW 5=1 at 2908 and .618 1 is 2896

    Sorry that 2896 price was $0.54 early. <2880, 2860 on deck-swiftly

  • HD

    ZW pretty strong rejections at $480, candle tails.

  • BobbyLow

    Agreed. This begs the question of what time frame we’re talking about? I’ve seen you catch a nice “trends” day trading fast charts throughout the day. Mole can catch nice trends on the 5 Minute Zero or his longer term charts using BB’s. And an investor can catch long term trends using much slower and longer term charts or fundamental analysis.

    The dictionary defines a trend as:
    trend
    /trend/
    noun
    1.
    a general direction in which something is developing or changing.

  • HD

    Agree, all about timeframe. 2019 has all been 1 trend imo, so that alone will be at least, minimum, 25% of the time this year. I would think trend traders would be longer timeframe, daily charts. Shorter the time frames hold more trends(waves) 🙂

  • kim

    Buy high. Sell low. Shouldn’t that be vice versa??

  • BobbyLow

    Fricken long tails in both directions is the worst case scenario under most time frames but I would expect to be long before 480 barring a runaway gap up that happens overnight. This is a bitchy time for wheat. It’s also relatively thinly traded and can get jerked around pretty easily. However, a bunch of small gains and small losses usually come before an extended run either up or down that should make it all worthwhile.

  • BobbyLow

    Catching a trend on Daily Charts would work with my trend trading system but it takes way too long to get in and to get out. I also don’t have the patience and or the stomach to carry the much larger stops that would be necessary to trade a daily system.

  • BobbyLow

    I think what he means is that a trend trader usually doesn’t get into a trend until after it has already begun and doesn’t get out until it has already begun to weaken. So we miss the first part of the move and give back some of the last part of the move but the middle part of the move can taste pretty sweet indeed.

  • ridingwaves

    yep, much easier for me on 4 hr and daily to identify the real trend in between the shorter time frame gyrations, momentum in hourly charts are deceptive for trend trader….

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    EASY – just throw up a Donchian and you’re good to go!

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    “but the short side doesn’t work in equities. ”

    It may work in theory but you just never get on the bus if you’re trend trading – or if you do it’s too late.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Surprised this post was so well received. Maybe I should do more stuff like this 🙂

    Comment count is a bit slow lately – it’s go away in May, not go away in early April!! Is it the rally or why is everyone taking time off?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    The Cougar is in Boston. that’s what it is.

    Donchian as a child.
    https://i.pinimg.com/originals/7a/f4/ee/7af4ee1341da9720e32452d5341f9e83.png

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I think I explained it in my post. But those were the very words used by them there trend traders of olden times. It basically tells you to wait for a trend to become established before grabbing a seat on the bus.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    LOL

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    It’s just a completely different style of trading. I wanted to lay out the type of thinking – the type of lens – that inspired it in the first place. There’s a reason why Donchian developed the price channel, because that is exactly how he perceived the market.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Sp00nman

    Ya.. looking at some equity momentum/trend strategies, most don’t take short trades, or if they do they are much less frequent or tend to be hedges. There just isn’t an edge on the short side longer term in equities.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • bankwalker

    short /GC 1308.70 …. for now …

  • bankwalker

    when do you exit a trade like that?

  • Jason13

    Pull up a 1min chart for this past hour on Wheat. Something is up. Don’t know what but we should have our answer soon.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    oh, July 4.
    😉

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    blame me for confirmation bias.
    I don’t CARE.
    😉

    https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/images/charts/gasoline_demand_and_price.png

  • bankwalker

    Well duh … why didn’t I think of that?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    because you haven’t been at Evilspec long enough, cadet.

  • bankwalker

    cadet? I’ve been called worse than that … MUCH worse!

  • bankwalker

    So … other than donchian channels, what are some other methods that serve as viable trend indicators?

  • kim

    it remembers me sit on a bus with btc at 15k, lol

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    BAC Yes ! The tip off last week a distribution day and weekly chart unable to go above a very important down trend line. Today an intraday reversal 29.50 very strong resistance.Banks reporting this week so took 1/2 off short position and monitoring closely. Home office is reduced to a skeleton crew today as attending the Boston Red Sox home opener. Looks like I better root for the Sox ! LOL! I will be in Boston until the 15th.Third time at Home Office and they are scheduling me to come more often on a regular basis.I told them next time husband comes Their response You Bet ! LOL!
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hi Chief Same concept as Jesse Livermore. Thanks for the post Chief
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Also Jesse Livermore monitored stocks in same industry and sector
    JULIE

  • BobbyLow

    “The equity market has a natural upward slant/bias and thus something like a short only mean reversion system is like trying to swim upstream. Can it be done? Sure, but it’s simply not smart.”

    I’ve tried my system with equity indices and it does not work well trading both sides. It can work with individual sectors but because of a as you mentioned “a natural upward bias” of the main index it doesn’t work well on the short side of a major index. I believe this natural upward bias of a major index is caused in part by at least one or more equity sectors within the index doing well while other sectors are not. This is the main reason why I stick with individual sectors like BIO, Oil, and Grains. For whatever reason, my system does not work as well with metals either. So in my case one size definitely does not fit all.

  • bankwalker

    The natural upward bias of equities is due to the mutual funds that buy, buy, buy …

  • BobbyLow

    Yeah, that too. 🙂

  • Sp00nman

    BL, ya, you mention those sectors, and I’d be willing to bet that they tend to “work” for you because they have a lower/little correlation with the broader market/indices, and thus can trend in a complete opposite direction from the equity market. Oil/grains are driven by their underlying commodities.

    Ya it’s interesting looking more in depth at different sectors and asset classes and how they act differently. Mole did some posts on this some time ago that I read but I haven’t put much more thought/time into analyzing them.

  • Sp00nman

    I think it’s due to a multitude of reasons. Dollar being a fiat currency and being devalued over time means higher asset prices (inflation). Mutual funds and more recently stock buybacks steadily buying. Lower trending interest rates means people forced to chase returns, driving up asset prices. The wealth effect it creates so there’s an inherent bias for it to rise. etc. etc.

  • BobbyLow

    One minute charts make a 2 point move look like gigantic moves so I try to stay away from them. I will close my short and flip to a long at the first sign of strength within my time frame. Unfortunately ever since last Thursday morning’s high of 477.50, price has screwed around and deteriorated for the most part. Let’s see how it closes.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    quick!

    in case you get cornered.
    10 Boston Red Sox and Fenway Park Facts You Never Knew About
    https://bleacherreport.com/articles/724329-10-boston-red-sox-and-fenway-park-facts-you-never-knew-about#slide1

  • DaVerg
  • Jason13

    Yes, it has. Did you see Corn’s reversal today?

  • Jason13

    And I always (Crude is the exception) take a longer term time frame approach with commodities but I thought that particular hour was very active for a commodity. Usually means a measured move in near future. Don’t know if up or down, just prepare myself for either.

  • BobbyLow

    Yes. This is especially the case with grains except when there can be correlation with the broader markets as there was during the on/off/on/off/on China Trade Deal BS. Oil usually has a mind of it’s own but moves in oil can be exacerbated by overall equity strength or weakness. However in most cases the trend in oil has already been established when this type of correlated move happens.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    BAC!?
    DB is ready to puke from $8 to 7$? don’t be a blonde.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=DB&p=W&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p36633756473

  • HD

    Maybe just HH’s and HL’s and vise versa is all you need to locate a trend. Idk.

  • BobbyLow

    I’ve had a difficult time with corn in the past and took it off my radar. I’ll take another look at it though.

  • http://www.captainboom.com/ captainboom

    Time to watch the Nick Radge video…

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ew1L6SLpHgM

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yes, Joe made frequent appearances on local Los Angeles TV kwhy – indeed not someone to dismiss out-of-hand even thorough most of his musings were squarely against the trends of the 1980’s and 90’s

  • BobbyLow

    Just took a look at it and at first glance it still looks like a short but the move up from today’s low looks interesting. If it can get a point or two above today’s high, I might be a player on the long side. I’ve got to run a quick back test first though.

  • BobbyLow

    I have this video saved and it is worth re-watching every once in awhile.

  • evilasevildoes

    i like Darvas Box

  • ridingwaves

    quite a boring -17 on spx, Vix is partying somewhere else

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Ronebadger

    VIX has nice candle, up 8%

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    14.11 last I checked.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Ya. No complaints here. I dug my heels in yesterday for a larger hold.

  • ridingwaves

    I was trying to wake it up…it worked…

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I knew it.
    you wear heels.
    😉

    http://www.funnytheworld.com/2009/Jul/CANKLES.jpg

  • BKXtoZERO

    Thanks!

  • Darkthirty

    those feet need horseshoes……..

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Mark Shinnick
  • bankwalker

    Yes. I like that one too … similar concept to donchian channel.

    I also like parabolic SAR.

    They all give false signals … every single one of them.

    That is the nature of the game.

  • ridingwaves

    another auction tomorrow that could keep draining equities….its like slow death by sea urchin spines..

  • Mark Shinnick
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    RSI, the ‘don’t get greedy line’

    problem is, price just keeps on floating higher.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/86e1c0ab704bb45913a8b6d879b1a9bd12357ab1ec506216c56ab7f2c83cc618.png

  • ridingwaves

    you pulled your gas chart gerb….

    I was looking hard at it via UGA but so thin traded…
    Ethanol had 2 huge green handle days at a tradeable bottom right now…..weather could add volatility there…but how do you trade it…

    ridingwaves 14 days ago
    I’m still in Crude…..think they run it up as its all they got to create inflation…..OSI index is getting really bullish….started looking at UGA for gas supplies worries, didn’t get in and off it goes, thinly traded

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • mSquare

    But, but …it is different this time!

    I confess, I have some FOMO

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    ah. I didn’t think anyone was watching.

  • DaVerg

    i liked his walking on water prank, which was removed from internet. He looked like he was walking on water, but he had a plank , just under water, in his swimming pool. Classic Granville. Most famous saying about market “it’s like you are standing on railroad track, looking at tunnel, you can feel the tracks moving, you can’t see anything. But you better GET OUT now because that train is coming” .Or something along those lines…………

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    confession is good for the soul,
    https://aholdencirm.files.wordpress.com/2016/07/monty.jpg?w=676

    ..privately.

  • nirav777

    Not alot of sell side into these lows, …. its a trap? Will have to see the next 30 minute or so…

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/18fc7d8049b5af12cdf072b5bb2961998b3b15d9629fb64e08d8aeb971a54f4d.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I don’t think I’ve seen vwap so easily disregarded.
    EVER.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    To answer the question.
    I don’t want to trade it. I want to monitor it because of a frequent correlation to SPX.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p41616403273

    edit: in Q4, gaso went linear down to Xmas. SPX ‘played games’.

  • HD

    So if you don’t pick bottoms and all that BS, where exactly are you gonna buy the dip at?

  • bankwalker

    immediately before it turns back up …

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    (GG chortles)

  • nirav777

    bottoms or tops, you don’t really know till after, so hind sight capital is always right….

  • kim

    thanks, i’m pretty sure it’s quality stuff, will watch it as soon as possible. bookmarked

  • HD

    Fair enough but you still have to click at some point!

    What’s HWB April range? 2874?
    Pick ur spots and scalp on.

  • nirav777

    rule of thumb, Zero tell me is safe to swim… with the sharks…

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • bankwalker

    Does the zero prove useful for higher timeframes or just intraday?

  • nirav777

    You need to sub and make a determination if it fit the frame you looking at…

  • ridingwaves

    gas chart is bullish but is still a little overbought…..yep similar…

  • Mark Shinnick

    82% essentially bullish. I’m not comfortable with that.

  • bankwalker

    42.80

  • bankwalker

    Yeah … I was hoping to find out before the purchase …

  • HD

    Indicators never give a price to buy so they can only lag price action.

    Pick your spots.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • BKXtoZERO

    Trend following is my middle name! BKX (trend follower) tozero

  • ridingwaves

    if it was same time next year, I would be weary……bull market has legs left, still a lot of hot money flowing at 2%…

  • Mark Shinnick

    …nice equity curve today….maybe a new local trend?

  • bankwalker

    long /ES 2881.25

  • BKXtoZERO

    This was one of those posts where I realize how different I am…. Lots of thinking today.

  • bankwalker

    exit /GC short 1308.50

  • nirav777

    it’s less than what most people risk on a trade, or 1 es point for that matter…

  • Mark Shinnick

    Anyone who fucks with lasers is usually going to be a little different.

  • bankwalker

    it’s not so much the money as the needed to figure it out …

    Today is an anomaly. Usually I am totally consumed with work during market hours.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Hey guys – I’ve been busy recording a few clips in my system building course. So much work!!! But it’s great material that I’m sure many of you will absolutely love. Anyway, it’s been a very productive day 🙂

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Seeee!!?? 🙂

    It’s a great indicator – the trending phase is clearly defined. If I can give you a tip – on futures use a shorter window – a 20 candle window would be perfect.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Yes exactly 🙂

  • BKXtoZERO

    Most put money at risk for long periods of time aiming for about 1%/week neighborhood these days…. My goal is 40-100% over a short time frame but without having my arm blown off trying to pick it up.

  • Jason13

    Of course. I’m not in a corn trade just thought I’d mention it.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Happy to hear that !

  • zzezzezz

    Short /ES. 2865 in my crosshairs…

  • BKXtoZERO

    Thanks for the relationship tips

  • BKXtoZERO
  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Hey guys – as it’s central bank double whammy day I am not putting up a post – I’ll chime in here when the smoke clears.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/32924d46d35d7383843ecb36bded784d42f954515e9994e30a3deb7ec94b4800.png

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • Mark Shinnick

    Excellent point.

  • bankwalker

    exit @ 2888.00 +6.75

  • Mark Shinnick

    For some many weeks now, overlay a modest daily MA of HY onto ES; they correspond pretty well.

  • HD
  • HD

    surprised zeroedge is still in biz….

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Soooo, much hyperbole.

  • Ronebadger
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    so that’s where my options trade money went.

    https://www.foxnews.com/science/first-ever-black-hole-image-revealed

  • Ronebadger

    All I see is a black hole in the middle…

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    ..theta burn did it.
    😉

  • Ronebadger

    I don’t know that group, but I do know this group (of rats)

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6gG0mFT9xgM

  • Ronebadger

    “The world’s most famous unknown band” https://www.classicrockhistory.com/15-essential-good-rats-songs/

  • HD

    More Rats for you and Ronebadger
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Efup3SWRBOA

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    RBOB, 30m
    there was a detachment yesterday with volume, but that didn’t last.
    pressure is relentless to that upper band.

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/48gAn5iS/

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • zzezzezz

    nice trade. i’m still short (and underwater)

  • Mark Shinnick

    Chart resistance. “lines”

  • Darkthirty

    2895 = 786 retrace before downside would be more symmetrical

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Hey guys – how’s everyone?

  • BKXtoZERO

    Doing well. I have never survived such an onslaught before totally intact trading mostly TVIX. ACCT is up 10%…down from 14 but hey…. Either I got better or they got worse….or both.

  • BobbyLow

    Doing OK Boss. My 3 open positions Oil, BIO, and Wheat are still positive. Oil and BIO have been on steroids but whatever it takes. 🙂 I got stopped out of /ZL yesterday for a loss but I guess 3 out of 4 ain’t too bad.

  • Darkthirty

    It was bought out. The intelligent people quit posting. Now it’s “orange man bad” discussions. Still a few good posters, but it feels like being a sparrow in a barnyard, digging through piles of shit to find a kernel of corn……….

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • HD
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I think so.
    that right shoulder, start rolling over post Easter.

  • BobbyLow

    Not for nuttin, but the worthless EIA Report today showed another forecast for a 2 M Build and had another 7 M Build instead. These numbers are almost an exact repeat of last week’s. Before you blast me again for reading this shit, please remember that I only read this report for entertainment and it has no basis whatsoever on whether I’m long or short. In that regard, I’m still long and at +$7.30 per share via 3X OILU.

    But the best answer to your question I can think of at this moment is something I heard many years ago and it is “the best cure for high oil prices is high oil prices”. I believe the reverse is true as well.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    stop complaining. I won’t be doing that no more.
    😉

    I hear farmers take it to a whole new level.
    time marker 0:30
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nr25bYpjHKg

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hi Guys Still short BAC 1/2 position with a stop.Unable to monitor very busy in Boston so only have one trade position. I would like to expound why short BAC. Weekly chart not positive and very important IMO it’s as good as it gets.The volume SPY and other markets very anemic and this potentially reflects my feelings on earnings and direction.The market is IMO pricing this in and volatility could be just around the corner. The bond and equity markets are in opposing direction and Guys be careful as the Bond Market is laying it out Everyone trade carefully
    JULIE

  • Jason13

    Informal survey..Fireworks or no Fireworks in 10 mins?

  • bankwalker

    FOMC meeting minutes to be released very soon.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    East Coast mentality will warp your mind.
    Get back to Big Sky Country ASAP.
    😉

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG Unreal how the people in Boston reply to each other. They yell at each other and who can yell the loudest wins an argument or takes the floor.The baseball game yesterday unreal the raucous fans and complete disregard for the Blue Jays.A different life it is from Montana However the people in the Home Office are wonderful
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    The usual firerworks Jason as approaching a double top or ATH A lot going on here to influence direction My two cents Jason
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    that explains why Bostonians aren’t allowed Glocks.
    😉

    Glocks can be sold only to law enforcement officers in Massachusetts, because consumer sales are banned under state law. … She said the handguns ended up in the hands of Massachusetts consumers “irrespective of whether the sales were made legally or not.”Sep 1, 2016

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    BK – GG Nice charts $CPCE and USO
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    off to lunch!

  • BKXtoZERO

    Every now and then I do something useful.

  • BobbyLow

    Have to leave early so I took profit on Long BIO LABU and Opened Short LABD. It was a close call and I might reverse again tomorrow.

  • bankwalker

    or maybe not being able to own Glocks explains why they act that way.

  • BobbyLow

    So the people were yelling on the whatever floor you were at and this was representative of 700,000 People? And perhaps the Red Sox Fans should have served the Blue Jays tea. BTW, what do you think it’s like for visiting teams in other stadiums? No booing allowed? LOL

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    You misunderstood my comment BL I was referring to a dinner that I attended. The guests were yelling at each other and at a lounge having a drink with co workers patrons were yelling at each other. I have never seen this before We have attended Seattle Mariner games in Seattle and fan behavior there was different than Fenway Park Just an observation BL
    JULIE

  • zzezzezz

    yeah, i’m short IWM

  • Jason13

    Yawn….

  • Mark Shinnick

    Very nice about labu; Be sure to note HY trending.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    “Glock envy” – pure and simple.
    😉

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    pssst.
    I’m selling IWM charts. this one’s free.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IWM&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p10466715082

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    EvilSpec, ‘home. away from home’.

  • HD

    its Just too slow. 90% of the time that is not bearish.

  • Darkthirty

    Missed by .75

  • BKXtoZERO

    Meaning never short a dull MKT take on things?

  • HD

    They gave us 20 handles of IV last week and so far that’s all they gave us this week too.

  • bankwalker
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • BobbyLow

    Thanks Mark. I closed my position based on my visual just before I left at a little after 2 PM and then of course it closed higher near the HOD. It’s possible I’ll have to reverse again but we’ll see what tomorrow brings.

    BTW, I really like the price action on LABU/LABD. I take my entries off of $PSIBI S&P Biotechnology Select Industry Index of which these 3X BIO’s are based on and it works well.

  • BobbyLow

    No problem Julie.

    Like I said before, I grew up in a small town about 65-70 Miles from Boston. I also lived very close to the ocean which I miss. However, I wouldn’t want to live in the city of Boston or any major city for that matter.

    I think most Red Sox fans are also disappointed that after winning the World Series last year, they are off to their worst start in 100 Years. I also think they are very disappointed that RS Starting pitcher Chris Sale just signed a 5 Year $145,000,000 Contract and is now 0 and 3 and not pitched decent game yet. For 145 Million Dollars expectations are very high and he’s been a dud so far this year. With the team not playing well while having one of the highest payrolls in Major League Baseball performances, this can lead to fans saying WTF alot.

    OTOH, there are lots of teams where the expectations are not as high and the intensity is much lower.

  • ridingwaves

    I’m betting opposite, he is not looking at cycles….

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I need to start charging you rent!

  • Jason13

    Isn’t that just the time to shock? No position here. But I think you’re right. ATH complacency is best to shake the masses. That may not be til later this year.

  • https://www.linkedin.com/in/george-tyrakis-fia-79007226 Georgios Tyrakis

    Mole, I always enjoy reading your stuff and this article is a fine example – keep up the good work!

  • Boutique Pharaonique