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Approaching Resistance
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Approaching Resistance

by The MoleMay 10, 2018

Although buying pressure remains minimal the E-Mini somehow managed to crawl its way higher and is now approaching its medium term resistance zone near 2700. This is most likely the threshold at which the shorts may decide to draw their final line in the sand. The question now for me at least is whether to continue to hold or to consider a short position. Let’s see what’ve got:

The Zero has remained slightly bullish and there appears to be a bullish divergence on the smoothed hourly panel (on the left). In order for this situation to resolve positively in the near future that green support line must not be broken today or tomorrow.

I’ve decided to once again give this one a wide birth at the off chance that it actually pushes through 2700 and thus initiates a massive short squeeze. Should I see a divergent signal on the Zero however I would be open to closing out and taking on a small short position.

Clearly the 2700 mark is the big hurdle especially with that sideways 100-day SMA pinned right above it. The onus is now on the bulls to show what they are made off. Should they fail here I’m afraid it’s going to be one hot summer.

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I almost got stopped out of gold but my campaign survived by just a few ticks. This thing just keeps on coiling up waiting for Dollar weakness. Which may be near – see below…

The ZB campaign is officially history with a stop out at break/even. Again the strong Dollar has kept a lid on any upside in bonds, so the timing here just wasn’t optimal.

Now here’s the Dollar campaign which is now looking like it may be ready for a retest of the upper 100-day Bollinger. Totally to be expected after such an extended run, thus I am leaving my ISL were it is right now.

Truth be told, if I hadn’t already advanced this far I would probably place my stop < the 100-day BB in order to weather out the impending shake out. However it’s my golden rule to never lower a stop once it has been raised, no exceptions.

Much to my surprise the USD/JPY campaign is progressing higher and I’m now advancing my trail to break/even. A push > 110.034 kicks this one into overdrive but the odds on that are 50/50 given that overall the Dollar seems to be weakening.

We’ve got new entries – so if you’re a sub grab your decoder ring and meet me in the lair:

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About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Spoos,
    here’s my line, shorts need to be very careful.

    I may be farting Unicorn Rainbows but..
    This could be the short squeeze day. A Bolt Higher would not be that difficult, IMHO.
    The bears would retreat, and regroup at 2755.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/9ea3374c3a62a5bb137bf7294078d83cb5ae46b1810e929baa30b798ab448482.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    /YM,
    is meeting resistance before open, a run would take it to the next rung upward.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/d554610c149ffe96ae399deebd802a1678ccce7f0dfdadd04cbfcae41b9b0ae8.png

  • StockTalker

    The divergence from every time frame through the weekly is insane on crude oil, currently -4. Stops run both directions now.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Posted last night JULIEhttps://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/9e61daa837c1d5fd93cd5dd90fae0bfbe975722bd4ff9123483810a2af67c1ec.png https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/9e61daa837c1d5fd93cd5dd90fae0bfbe975722bd4ff9123483810a2af67c1ec.png

  • BKXtoZERO

    Plying my “craft”. L TVIX 5.99, day only. Great post Mole. Thanks for the run down.

  • Yoda

    breakout!

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Yoda YEAH !
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    USO This morning’s gap up sold into Gap and Crap
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    ST I have pointed it out also
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    Long USLV 10.4, small position, longer term hold (i hope)

  • Mark Shinnick

    I’m buku long this morning….for time being.

  • BKXtoZERO

    you may get it… MACD widened and pointing upward edit: 1yr chart

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yeah, damn thing is already 4%

  • StockTalker

    Time to short the F out of this market.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    $GDXADP 50 sma above 0 which of bullish. Room to run up before becoming overbought JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/3191cc8e814d061eeb10173ab33102ce0458f9d189f63443dab2cd951bff19d3.png

  • BKXtoZERO

    hopeful… last night looked at 10 year CL chart. It doesn’t look as promising as shorter term charts. Staying short for the moment but keeping close watch. No plan to tussle with CL.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    $GDXUDP 50 sma above 0 which is bullish. Room to run up before becoming overbought JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/49dd58e11c9b1c8afc523d7e69c71bd60b6e3a6ffceded312d880ede4ad83db8.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    BKX Not worried about oil short at all
    JULIE

  • Mark Shinnick

    The vol environment has shifted.

  • BKXtoZERO

    sheez, I would ALWAYS be worried about an oil short. Oil and Gold to me are against the grain plays like shorting volatility. There is always a X factor, Syria, Iran, someone bombing etc..

  • BKXtoZERO

    were you buku long into that almost break down day? I was wondering about you that day. It worked, but I had a feeling you were long and biting your nails….

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    BKX Never go against the commercials net short position. Like you I started out with 30 K (husband put into an account for me) and it is now up over 120 K. My USO short is a very small position and will add
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • BobbyLow

    BKX, I was going to reply to your post about your 10 Year Chart on the last thread but I’ll do it here instead. You’ve been doing well on your quick in and out short term trades. I have to ask that as a short term trader what help a 10 Year chart would be? But seeing as how you brought up a long term chart, a while back, I tested a /CL daily going back 15 Years. What I found was that over a 15 Year Period, Crude behaved exactly the way it’s behaving right now. There would be periods of meandering prices with no firm direction followed by a long and extended rip to the upside followed by another directionless choppy periods followed by a long extended run to the downside. On just about every single run to the up or downside, people would say it couldn’t go any higher or it couldn’t go any lower. NOTHING HAS CHANGED!

    The only things that have changed over time is the explanations given for these runs although the middle east has been a consistent topic throughout. I’m sticking with commodities right along with you and just thought I would throw my 2 cents worth.

    BTW, Philly played a hell of a game last night but I’m proud of the Celtics hanging in there and now it’s on to Lebron. 🙂

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    where!? what!?

    I feel better *now*
    https://i.ytimg.com/vi/eaPJIttcAA8/hqdefault.jpg

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX My 2702.78 target has been reached Locked and loaded ready to blast this “BABY” South JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/658499e99304b28e14be62ba1e6aa742565a486f6164b819974e77b5c6e18a74.png

  • Mark Shinnick

    I got back to you on that. Stood aside because needed to do legal work; fascinating case, mom is suing me.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    I found a great solution to late night snackies..

    bacon!

  • HD

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/ed4f37893f53b051ddbbf6ab7665a05dda9ecbbcbd20d3239f169af57d79cba3.png $SPX moving fast, (55) point rally already. EW saved my butt, let me know I was wrong >2683, 27 points of pain avoided. Next EW level is here at 0-B TL. A close above greatly increases the probability of the correction being over. Likewise, overlapping the 2683 would give caution to the bullish POV. The triangle folks are still alive but need a few more data points.

  • StockTalker

    Yep, everyone bullish again, lol

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    The retail purgatory 😉

  • HD

    I know a guy that sold the 0-B TL…. wish him luck

  • Mark Shinnick

    How quickly / how wholly does everyone jump into what kind of trap this time?

  • BKXtoZERO

    Thanks BL. My point was that I personally lost touch with it. I realized I am throwing money at something I have no feel for and am just giving pause. Easy way to lose money that I worked hard for elsewhere. I ALWAYS love your posts on CL as someone who messes with it all the time.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    USO 14.38 resistance 14.24 support
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    sorry forgot….. some posts get lost

  • ridingwaves

    2850 by July…..

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yeah, in that way of obtaining a definitive decision process it just makes no difference what tool gets used.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Slo grind?

  • StockTalker

    DXY filled the gap

  • ridingwaves

    chop all the sell in may folks up and then hit them with more pain by running higher..

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    VZ, short covered.
    46.69

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    good luck!
    volatility will drop as the patient gets their morphine.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TVIX&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p55111511956

  • Mark Shinnick

    Is this an environment about to see a SL of short covering?

  • StockTalker

    Short /NQ 6935

  • ridingwaves

    quick note on economy via business trip to S. Calif. Hwy 5 had the most trucks I have ever seen in my 30 years of driving it yesterday. S. Calif is one big rat hole and getting bigger, the inland empire construction of all types is impressive. Can’t figure out where they are going to get the water but impressive to say the least. Traffic is off the charts horrible and will ultimately or is the demise of that town….

    took the back way out and the building in the high desert is nuts….when this all comes crashing down it will be epic….but I might be dead…

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    are we above Vwap? that’s all one needs to know.

    [SPX]
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p77141244579

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    IMO SPX about to complete the D leg of the triangle No position yet https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/b81e526c1cfe887b27ba5951b177e7f9b77fcbcf6630c7761427a8a55507387a.png JULIE

  • Mark Shinnick

    Traffic really is off the charts; I cannot comprehend why so many persons volunteer to endure so lifetime and $ consuming effort and gruel just be in this area. Its self-imposed slavery.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    RW LA – Long Beach Longshoreman are working two shifts. Ships destined for LA – Long Beach are being diverted to Seattle and Portland It’s crazy So Cal
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • ridingwaves

    I would never do it, living in a box in 100 degree heat in Mennifee or Riverside is insane….took me 2 hours to get from Riverside to Downey between 9:00 AM and 11….heck their was traffic in middle of night on Sat on drive down….5 hours from Grapevine to Murrietta..

    I would rather live in a shack with no one around for miles…..nuts…It was Nirvana in the 70’s though, outside of the smog…

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    RW Montana ! Love it !
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX Two days of gap and go … Entice them Bulls !
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    it’s a gap and go? you seem to be the gap expert.

    https://scottmautz.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/gap.jpg

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG Are you kidding me ! Sharon ; Mary and myself are big time ! LOL ! JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/b8d1f2b5ccf1a42dbe89bf66cd557394d4c8ecea113c231c24fbecdfcb883fd7.png

  • BKXtoZERO

    LUNCH ON ME! I am out…. The Ayayollah of TVIX is buying someone else lunch today! That 1/2 position that I lazily left on was up to a 1K loss and my system risks about 200$/trade to make 1-2K. By rule, when it gets to a 1K loss it gets closed. No ifs, ands, buts, hoping, waiting the day. gone. Other people are supposed to buy me lunch.
    edit: still holding today’s 1R position, but that is on a short leash.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    So how’s my crew?

    This may be a good moment for some of you to reflect on your bearish outlook last week. If you ‘knew’ for a fact that we were about to fall off the plate last week then you may want to reconsider how your beliefs are affecting your trading edge. Just a thought from your humble host.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I guess nobody really understands my comment. Sometimes I wonder why I bother…

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    BKX If wrong not wrong long The sun sets only to rise again
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    $USD,
    what do you think Julie,
    is this impulse over?

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24USD&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p99995300468

  • BKXtoZERO

    NO Evil laughter for me today sir!

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36
  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    What do you see?

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    So your trading account has a principal of about $100k?

  • BKXtoZERO

    Out of today’s TVIX position too, 5.99 5.69

  • BKXtoZERO

    I knew you math guys would close in on me eventually if I gave too much away. Not too far off.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Just making sure you are employing proper position sizing.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Thank you Sir… for caring.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    XOP Out Nice run .. Overbought at resistance with declining up volume JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/9f8881c537c49c2de1b59e2c67e82980bfda798a5e1b167a9c9fbd8adbca3773.png

  • BKXtoZERO

    where did you get in?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    2% * 100K is 2K MAX per trade.
    or 333 shares of TVIX,
    a 30 cents win/loss is $99.9

  • Mark Shinnick

    Well…whenever tvix decides to stop, general volatility has reached some local downside objective. Bulls may need one more blast higher and that would help tvix reach its own local downside objective.

  • BKXtoZERO

    I was running larger variable position sizes (especially intra-day) but keeping stops tight to 2% Had to be right to within small range or out. I shrank positions and widened stops as confidence in direction waned.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36
  • BKXtoZERO

    nice! congrats.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    SPX 2016.
    I have this feeling, 2020 by my lunch time.
    and I will miss 40 pts upward by close.

  • BKXtoZERO

    what makes you think it stopped? looks kind of bottomless

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    No GG An extended wave 3 is occurring IMO no wave 4 down yet. An extended wave 3 usually wave 4 retraces approx. 23% of waves 2 — 3 Just saying GG I try not to wave wank but do look for impulses
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Mark Shinnick

    Just chartwork and price action at those points. Some participants are going by it.

  • BKXtoZERO

    I get a different feel approaching 2700 area than I had in the past. I don’t think this is a fence post turtle. Looks like they will rumble through here.

  • Mark Shinnick

    A-la short covering rally. Last blast window seems to be happening.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG Above 2717 is bullish esp a bullish close above. A definite impulse. As stated in one previous post looking for the pullback to go long. I am very careful with triangles as also stated the D leg could be finishing up. If a D leg I would like to short it back. Either way a D leg or the pullback following an impulse going to try to catch.short If it is a pullback following an impulse probably retrace 50% as stated in a previous post
    JULIE

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Do any of you guys have problems borrowing TVIX or UVXY?

  • BKXtoZERO

    enjoy the ride Sir! L LABU ?

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yes

  • Mark Shinnick

    If you see a txix entry let us know.

  • BKXtoZERO

    yes, after it reverse splits again probably

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    D leg overthrow or an impulse Either way I am going to nail this back i.e. short ..Patience … Patience JULIE

  • Yoda

    Banking some steady coins in gdxj and pleasantly surprised by nutty gas up move today.
    Not interested in trading ES or shorting the market at this point.

  • BKXtoZERO

    good luck girl. I am looking into other areas… metals, crude

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    M Here we go guys A hammer off the (1) 89 ema (2) lower channel (3) support Oversold JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/cf1566933143ca285fe9bd7cf67b6bc2d062425bfd7934daff1ebe403e060f69.png

  • ridingwaves

    that was the trade of decade starting in 2012 or there about….doesn’t look done heading down….the weird candle on 4th is just weird…. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/107d1eeddecad9e6f76b805d8421d8d7a3b0bf4ef5e700aefdd28eb0fa97be9e.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Macy’s — Nordstrom’s — Saks Fifth Ave Sharon ; Mary and myself Definitely our hang outs ! LOL !
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    Trying quick scalp TVIX 5.63, against ES2720

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    BKX Did you checkout my reply to you last night GOLD and GDX GDX broke out this a.m per last nights post Also reposted this a.m way down below
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO
  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Okay, everyone pay attention please – this is IMPORTANT:

    Assuming your system has a 65% average win/loss rate, which few people have consistently. Over 250 campaigns you have a 92% chance of seeing 4 consecutive losers. Which will require a 4% gain to get you back to 100%. Not a big deal.

    But at 4% you will need a 17% win to get back to break even. Now what if you have a lower win/loss rate? Because at a 50% win rate you have a 92% chance of getting 7 consecutive losers within 250 campaigns. Now if you play 4% position sizes – which many retail traders do or worse – you are looking at a 31% gain just to get back to break/even.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/45703b29d2233bb47a6a8949aaa765e86d862e893dcaa1d3fd647b74f5e769d5.png

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I’m playing it intra-day. A buddy of mine is unable to borrow it over at IB. So wanted to get a sense how you guys are faring with various brokers and how much commission they are asking for a $1000 position.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    YODA nailed the GDX breakout this a.m. Me too per last nights post and the $GDXADP and $GDXUDP posts this a.m.Yeah !
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Also Chief RSI at or above 66.66 2 out of three days will be positive The reverse is true a RSI at or below 33.33 two out of three days will be negative. Love the math Chief Thanks !
    JULIE

  • ridingwaves

    not in the trade so lying if I told ya anything….slice thru 12.72 and ouch to be L VIX//

  • BobbyLow

    It might have been a couple of years back that you put out a video by Nick Rage who talked a lot about this. I thought I had saved it but can’t find it. Do you still have it?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • BKXtoZERO

    yes. I bought some USLV for a set it and forget it trade.

  • BKXtoZERO

    years ago at Etrade, I could only borrow it about 30% of the time. I would call in and brokers would sometimes find it for you. I gave up trying back then it was always tight.

  • BobbyLow

    Gold looks like it might be finally catching a bid too. 🙂

  • BKXtoZERO

    It’s dead Jim.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    He’s still out there Mate.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ew1L6SLpHgM
    Cri-key.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    OK GG Do not be late ! Husband fishing today ! Just kidding LOL ! Must get back to work now
    JULIE

  • BobbyLow

    Excellent! Thanks GG.

    BTW for anyone who hasn’t watched this video, this is about an hour long and very good film.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Because at a 50% win rate you have a 92% chance of getting 7 consecutive losers
    colder than ice water.

  • Yoda

    No you did nail the breakout. I am just riding GDXJ since Bolton joining the WH. It is a L-T trade for me, unless stopped out.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    One last post must get back to work I would like to see more volume SPY on this SPX breakout above 2717. IMO better be careful could be a false breakout. As stated in post below Either way a D leg or an impulse will try to short it back ( pullback a correction to an impulse or the E leg lower)
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    see what I meant when asking about leveraged inverse VIX. There is nothing offered (to retail) that goes UP as fast as TVIX goes down. If there was I would be scalping it every day.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Just bot some at .66. pretty damm tight.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Understood Yoda You have been in the Juniors awhile. BTW The green haired super fox Nice catch Yoda!
    JULIE

  • Yoda

    Lol you are a riot

  • BobbyLow

    Yep. And this is another reason why I’m a big believer in back testing as far back as reasonably possible. By doing this you get to see a lot of these back to back to back losses first hand and learn how important R levels are and not to be surprised when a consectutive run of losses happen.

    Losses are part of the game.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX The triangle has not gone 75% of the apex yet. Quite often a breakout or breakdown before the 75% Rule can be false Just Saying
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG OOOOONNNNN !
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    get back to work, before you get fired.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    I am the head of my Dept Everything is cool. Great co workers
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    this too shall pass.

  • Mark Shinnick

    That vehicle design has aged so well.

  • Mark Shinnick

    …standing aside.

  • ridingwaves

    passed by the first bobs big boy the other day in the city close to where I grew up…
    http://bobs.net/images/home/history.jpg

  • Darkthirty

    Said the snake that ate the porcupine………..

  • Mark Shinnick

    Valley guy?

  • HD

    That made my head spin.
    Interesting you say 250 campaigns though. Assume 250 trading days per year. You only need to be correct for $400 per day to make $100,000. That’s 8 points on 1 ES contract. Have no idea what the percents would be.

  • BobbyLow

    Geez, I just realized that Sunday May 6th was the 8th Year Anniversary of the infamous Flash Crash. Should have lit a candle for all the Benjamins that went up in smoke that day.

    But as for today, I’ve dropped my hedge on Wheat and am short while remaining long Crude and Gold.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    I watched it live, freaked me out a little.
    should be rich by now!

    https://i.ytimg.com/vi/XMg39-LhrNU/maxresdefault.jpg

  • BKXtoZERO

    still here… I think I see one red candle 1 point off the high

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    27+ pts.
    I think I can safely post this. (without being hit by tomatoes)

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DtVBCG6ThDk

  • HD

    But I know some of you are highfaluten types and want $250,000 a year. Trading 5 minis for just 4 points is your daily goal. This may explain why some people get excited with 5 and 10 handle trades.

  • BobbyLow

    I had to leave for the majority of the day and had 3 long positions that I put “drop dead” stops on and they dropped dead and some. I didn’t do as bad as a friend of mine who had some Naked Spy Options that he had to cover. He lost thousands.

    Of course it made everyone feel better that the exchanges acknowleaged their mistake. Not. 🙁

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Remember Julie’s Momentum Trade displaying details and parameters weeks ago …… JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/626279541aad8b4badf3f5795e81737aa26ad185e3af15bc46c5e6dab7015303.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    I had SPY put options going. Waited a week, got 40% back?
    some times you just have to Honeybadger it.

  • BobbyLow

    Yeah that was crazy. Speaking of options, I’ve tried just about every combination trading options possible and they just kick my ass in the long run. More power to anyone who can consistently make money on them. They are pure poison for me.

  • BKXtoZERO

    I found that gloating usually marks a reversal, when you see me posting a Muhamad Ali picture, Queen video, Big Red Gum commercial, go the other way!

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GDX Taking profits leaving 1/4 23.10 was a resistance posted in chart last night previous thread. Do not like the volume and now overbought
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • BKXtoZERO
  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    For retail it’s difficult – yes. But let’s be honest, there’s a reason XIV blew up the way it did. Most people cannot handle leverage.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    It continues to be one of my favorites.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    The sky is a neighborhood.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    That is actually the one big reason you ought to be backtesting. And then you double your worst assumption to make sure you are halfway prepared for reality.

  • ridingwaves

    valley girls are fun!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I just put together a ZScore indicator – check it out on the VXX:

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    https://content.screencast.com/users/evilspeculator/folders/Jing/media/4eea84bc-e7e9-44d0-a59d-901cba3058f5/00021103.png

    This is actually a small part of a bigger system and I was simply testing it on a price panel. But for a scalper this could be one juicy swing trading oscillator.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG I use that chart too with Renko I use MACD 8,13,5 Another reason I am taking 3/4 off the table. Thanks GG
    JULIE

  • Mark Shinnick

    Now…That’s Evil.

  • BKXtoZERO

    you may need to elaborate a little…….

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    follow the green sub line. ignore the slope on main price.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX Can’t wait for the close …. Possible false breakout per post below JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/4395c8904b45cd9b2f11885dc45a603cd4c188dfd846429e8652215658660009.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • HD

    $DJI didn’t take out the April high? That’s awkward

  • BKXtoZERO

    he took my lunch today

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    LOL

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Not obvious?

  • Mark Shinnick

    He’s sort of a position guy.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    $ONE:$VIX Top of Bollinger band perhaps a little higher to fulfill 20% above it’s 10 ema Careful here Guys ! JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/ef8581228af0402851e586a1a9d6a7ed3849fc4db6b0ed0b716c91fc1f113fe4.png

  • Mark Shinnick

    Ahhh …its always the seeming awkwardness that interferes with execution. You know?
    (Confound and Confuse)

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Here – you’ll enjoy this:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=butNX7mnsKk

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    22.49 is stop on remaining 1/4 long position GDX
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Nice GG Thanks corroborates my chart closely
    JULIE

  • HD

    Many look at the RUT or NDX. I look at the DJI when I want confusion.

  • HD

    Make one for BTC and you will suckers lined up to buy it. Jmho

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    I gave up lunch for this?
    😉

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    USO 14.38 is a resistance. 14.24 is a support (today’s low 14,25) Like to see a bearish close below 14.24 and it.s daily 5 ema 14.20 It is coming https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/8a76bbb569b6522d6470e2e0d3dea7629e850c2994deff971b93203b9fa0a92c.png JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    I have been multi tasking work and here
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    me too. I just made a (informal) proposal to my senior developer who shot down an idea.
    {sigh} I try to make it a better world.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    and it did!

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    BAC Resistance 31.08 (today’s high) Support 30.42 (today’s low) A bearish close below 30.42 will re short JULIEhttps://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/e266fb71b827ee81555898ad1122a8242a3f606f4f5919a810cb95114b685451.png https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/e266fb71b827ee81555898ad1122a8242a3f606f4f5919a810cb95114b685451.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • BKXtoZERO

    I took a long hard look. The only thing I can note is that the centerline for the whole mess was slightly below zero. The swings (to my eye) simply followed price moves. I have tried looking at quite a few oscillators in the last few weeks and don’t see much value in them (EXCEPT for your zero) of course. SIR

  • Mark Shinnick

    Looks like bears are taking bait….or end up running away with it…wtf knows. I’m flat from some time ago.

  • HD

    You got your V crush. Kudos. Most of the patterns are blown out. 2702 May be a good bullish above / bearish below.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    $RUT An Ascending Triangle. BUT A pullback to approx. 1550 matching the 55 ema : a fib confluence and a rising trend line OR 1530 matching the lower rising uptrend line and a fib confluence Possible E leg lower. Many times the E leg retraces 1/2 which would be approx. 1550 JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/6921bfdc60bad2de501073847da1da7616ad3581423906d7c1153831a97359f2.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    HD 2702 is the weekly Ichi Cloud baseline (21) which is a resistance. Bullish closing above this Friday As I posted 2702 was a target
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Mark Shinnick

    Quite a number of technicals and met price objectives are around here; something for everyone I suppose. The only thing “real” is yesterday’s change in volatility paradigm.

  • Ronebadger

    Probably another VIX Sell Signal, Step 1 today…wait for close

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Everyone has heard of the three musketeers Well ….. GG Yoda and Mole are The Three Musty Steers
    Alternates Mark BKX and RW
    LOL !
    JULIE

  • Ronebadger

    Taking a little short position right here…tight stop

  • BKXtoZERO

    you mention looking for a VIX sell signal below. I remember everything except the chart settings. 2.0 Bollingers, close out, close in, higher or lower close next BUT…. what time frame chart? Thanks.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Ronebadger SPX could go up to approx. 2750 matching the gap window and 61.8% retracement before pulling back Just Saying. I have no position SPX JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/ced21fab276c1a656604b22b467931c303a26576ceaa8f98d8f0f0dc0f5eabda.png https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/ced21fab276c1a656604b22b467931c303a26576ceaa8f98d8f0f0dc0f5eabda.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    EDIT 61.8% retracement not 50% retracement
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Another chart showing 2750 an approx. target showing a developing channel JULIEhttps://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/a24fbee7886e608e3829f01b84684803dcb0c06e28af16be61dc8a15f70f70ed.png https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/a24fbee7886e608e3829f01b84684803dcb0c06e28af16be61dc8a15f70f70ed.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Later Guys Everyone Have A Great Day ! 2 1/2 hrs of work left
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    We didn’t get the Bolt today,
    but remember the 3.33, 1.66, 0.80?
    On track. (pun intended)

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p48720489628

  • HD

    2600 or 2800? Comes first?

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Nice session today – easy does it! A close > 2700 is positive but now let’s get a move on!

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/e3d4a1db30e08c4e5f17c512bd06e478ed35641e86db2df5b9f4fca8ecff0b7f.png

    Zero signal today was weak, so we may see a bit more whipsaw here at this inflection point.

  • Trouzzer_Snake

    My trailing stop finally got hit today for a 54 pt gain. Using the trail instead of exiting the position as I usually do was worth an extra 20 handles or 37%!

  • BKXtoZERO

    BTW… exited Crude short today, small loss 0.10 on DWT. Basically cash and some silver for me. perhaps vacation….. ride my 2 GSXR 750s and Yamaha XT350 dirt bike in the Cascade mountains.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hi BKX Dinner almost ready I highlighted SEDG The oversold bounce off the 55 ema and MACD centerline test Missed it ! LOL! JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/fb28c5b1bcc6a169e9568b333ea5afffe86ac9b62dd0ed16f193784ec2185b27.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys Checkout the volume IWM Not exactly breakout volume . Also IWM closed mid range today at resistance IMO looking for a pullback $RUT per $RUT chart posted below JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/582b33c33d84ce7567505c957f4ae88c8db0ccebd0c671545f404a6ac9fdbf51.png https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/582b33c33d84ce7567505c957f4ae88c8db0ccebd0c671545f404a6ac9fdbf51.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hey GG Got a “Nibbler” for us GILD Exhaustion gap down and a possible selling climax. Takes approx. 5 days for institutions to digest What The Hell. A resistance is 66.15 and the 5 ema is 65.86. A bullish close above 66.15 and we play it up to the confluence of the trend line ; support now resistance and declining 21 ema approx. 69 Shown GILD daily and weekly charts JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/4be69ef08f90e539f38a4224f5d03538a2e4b39b617876a043cd9665719367d5.png https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/75b09fcaf919515e47b784ccdf948b37bccba41dce9671a7e7d40a798a589e34.png

  • mSquare

    How about Neither till the end of 2018?

    Both lows and highs are in for the year – or at least till a big upset in Nov elections …

  • BKXtoZERO

    it is looking rather erect!

  • BKXtoZERO

    Looking at a 10 year NQ chart…. Hugging the upper band for 8 years! 74 green candles. Next bollinger hit is 7350. Maybe this time is different. Lucy, pull the ball away again! https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/83caa4b5f0811cffafc1d6f52b27ae985adb885bccdafd35acb43a237b880c0d.jpg

  • http://www.captainboom.com/ captainboom

    Wow… Good luck on that. It’s amazing what some people will do when they start smelling the death or incapacity of a family member. If only everyone would play nice together.

  • Darkthirty

    E wave extension?

  • Darkthirty

    2752 = 786 on ES