Having spent over seven years in Spain and having had to put up with their various cultural peculiarities gives me sufficient license to mock any Spaniard at every possible opportunity. Which is a privilege I yield (somewhat) responsibly but sometimes I just can’t help myself.
We should probably preserve our final judgment until today’s close but I at this point I believe it’s fair to say that we most likely are looking at an outlier for week #40. Per the histogram, the SKEW, and standard deviation charts I posted on Monday we knew that there was a possibility for fireworks which made it possible for us to hedge ourselves appropriately.
We’ve reached the end of September plus it’s a Monday, so let’s talk some stats. First up big props to Rob Hanna over at QuantifiableEdges whose SPX stats properly pinned week #39 with high odds of closing in the red – which it did. My own most humble SPY stats did back up his view as well but let’s give credit where credit is due. Okay, so what does have week #40 in store for us?
With summer solstice only days away market participants are now starting to shift their focus from trading toward a well deserved time off from the trials and tribulations of the financial markets. A drop in activity of course leaves plenty of opportunity for bot driven shenanigans, especially during a week filled to the brim with volatility inducing market events. In short: caveat emptor.