We should probably preserve our final judgment until today’s close but I at this point I believe it’s fair to say that we most likely are looking at an outlier for week #40. Per the histogram, the SKEW, and standard deviation charts I posted on Monday we knew that there was a possibility for fireworks which made it possible for us to hedge ourselves appropriately.
We’ve reached the end of September plus it’s a Monday, so let’s talk some stats. First up big props to Rob Hanna over at QuantifiableEdges whose SPX stats properly pinned week #39 with high odds of closing in the red – which it did. My own most humble SPY stats did back up his view as well but let’s give credit where credit is due. Okay, so what does have week #40 in store for us?
With summer solstice only days away market participants are now starting to shift their focus from trading toward a well deserved time off from the trials and tribulations of the financial markets. A drop in activity of course leaves plenty of opportunity for bot driven shenanigans, especially during a week filled to the brim with volatility inducing market events. In short: caveat emptor.
If you’ve ever flown Ryan Air over here in Europe then you may know the long term damage even a short term flight can inflict on your body. And believe me, the six nights we spent sleeping on a creaky old mattress (note to myself: do not ever trust booking.com reviews again) had nothing on the two hours of legalized torture we were subjected to in order to be whisked across the Mediterranean for under €200.