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Clockwork Orange
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Clockwork Orange

by The MoleJune 29, 2010

It’s Primary {3} and we need a new label for those wave counts – so let’s give a warm (and long overdue) welcome to Clockwork Orange. The bearish scenario the bears have been patiently waiting to see for almost a year now. And one that Wall Street has its unique way of welcoming:

That’s right, the bears are back – like it or not. There will be a lot of pain – there will be blood – and there will be a lots of ass kicking mixed with generous helpings of bitch slapping. My advice to the bulls: Wear a cup – this will get ugly. To celebrate this occasion the Evil Lair has now officially been set into extra evil mode – which is one step below the max setting of turbo evil. Expect the worst – and if you’re a stainless steel rat – expect to profit.

Let me celebrate the occasion by sharing this little gem that’s starting to make the rounds:

This is right out of the Book Of The Dead [Markets] – on the left you see the 1987 crash which was preceded by a fractal pattern. One that is repeating itself right now. I sent it to Chris Carolan a few days ago and he came back with the little (but most important) tidbit about the Lunar Eclipse – again the timing is spot on. Mmmmhhh.. I wonder how it all ends this time – anyone buying the dip? 😉

Yes, Soylent Green is dead – we could see a little bounce here near term but medium term I think this market is going to fall off the plate. That is based on the level of bearish sentiment I see out there – and remember large scale drops happen in oversold conditions. Quite frankly I think we are heading into a perfect storm – bring a sweater.

That’s what I’m seeing on the Dow medium term. By the time Minor 3 of Intermediate (1) concludes I expect the Dow to trade in the 8000 range. That is probably when we’ll cover and wait for instructions – of course it’ll all depend on the wave pattern and I will keep everyone in the loop (no bi-monthly vacation for this blog host – ahem…).

Here is something I don’t see anyone talking about. Look at where medium/long term yields are at right now – the 10-year (TNX) is basically where it was at the end of Primary {1} in March of 2009. The 30-year (TYX) is trading slight above but is sinking quickly. What does that tell you about the medium term risk assessment of bond traders? And we have not even dropped yet! Admittedly I am not a bond trader, so if someone with a clue can chime in on this subject I would appreciate it.

Cheers,

Mole


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
Enjoyed this post? Consider a small donation to keep those evil deeds coming!

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  • psycho_puppies

    1st.. what do I win???

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    You get to buy a subscription.

  • yudhisthira

    First chart is absolutely evil.

    I have a buddy who keeps selling his FAZ for small gains.
    He misses every big move because he can't hold 'em.
    Ah well. He claims he can't afford to pay some evil guy $49 for a signal.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Well, the way he's going he can't afford to keep trading. When it's all said and done show him your earning statement at the end of the year. He might change his mind 😉

  • jigdaddy

    “(no bi-monthly vacation for this blog host – ahem…)”

    loving it

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    Not fair, i post hamster time… BANG new post (was it because of the cease an desist?)

    well… REPOST

    hamster time! (btw, a certain molish overlord will soon receive a cease and desist from some ratish lawyers about rammstein time)

    BPSPX under sma13, bearish as bear can be, BUT we have to break support near 42

    SPX:VIX first bouce or slide (lower bb13), but given BPSPX i'd say the war will be near 19 (been talking about 19 for some months no?)

    SPX:CPCE point down

    SPX:GOLD is ambiguous at best (strange), but the “centenial” agrees with a slide down the lower bb scenario (could the ambiguity be a latter gold crash to 980? (i have a hard time believing 860 or sub 700, sorry pure deflacionists, gold is hedge against government lunacy and we'll see plenty of that)

  • DudePlunger

    Oh man, what a day. Back from the hospital (4 fucking hours), got some antibiotics, and ready to focus on the markets.

  • verdo131

    I have been considering becoming a new subscriber. I swing trade or longer trade both long and short S&P. Think I will need some help with the coming volatility. What subscription would the board recommend? Zero, evil rat, etc

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Seriously, I don't think he should call himself a trader – maybe Dr. Dolittle is more appropriate 🙂
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6qH8SfPbPL4

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I'd vote for the Zero – especially if you like the futures.

  • verdo131

    Been thinking about subscribing. I think the market will become very volatile soon and will need all the help I can get. For a swing or longer trader of the S&P, what system would you recommend?

  • jigdaddy

    for people buying gold…what has been the best way/experience of buying it? buy a contract? own physical?

    TIA

  • BobbyLow

    I hope you are on the Mend Dude.

    The Market will be back in Business tomorrow. Should get real interesting from here. 🙂

  • DudePlunger

    Oh yeah. I think I'd like to short 1045 overnight but stay hedged the /nq in case we see a sharp bounce. Thing is, today was a gap down, so I wouldn't be surprised to be a rally attempt overnight that may fail and result in solid intraday selling. But we will see.

  • BobbyLow

    I Swing Trade Mostly SPY Options along with IWM and XLE.

    Although I will make occasional Day Trades, most of my trades last from a few days, to a few weeks, to a few months. I also have some Options that go out to March 2011.

    I use the Zero Lite to tweak my overall position, to signal when it's time to take partial profits or losses and for basic entry and exit points. It took me a little while to where I could use it with a degree of confidence that fit my trading style.

    I think a lot of us use it in different ways as some trade only ES and NQ futures.

    I don't think it's a magic bullet but I've found it to be an excellent tool that helps give me a solid reason to make a trading decision.

  • yudhisthira

    The count shows spx approaching heart of (iii) of 3.
    Thrilling prospect, if the count is true.
    Bulls need to pull off some magic to prevent.

  • WTFed

    God damn I love it when Mole gets excited!

  • WTFed

    Dude- Is 1045 your stop?

  • DudePlunger

    No, I shorted /ES 1036 and went long /NQ 1765.75. The NQ is my hedge, and will allow me to confidently short 1045 overnight. If for some reason we see excessive strength tomorrow, I'll set up a plan to buy more NQ's and hedge myself or make a profit if we explode. But otherwise, I want to be a seller at 1045-1050 on /ES, and on breakdowns and weakness intraday.

  • BobbyLow

    Yep. I've gotten to the point that there isn't much that can surprise me in this market anymore. But as Mole and others have said there has been severe damage done. And like I said the other day this market is a ticking time bomb.

    So I think I'm going to bed, watch some Mindless TV, get some sleep and get ready to have at it again tomorrow.

    Good luck and we'll catch ya on the other side.

  • WTFed

    Nicely played. I'm holding ES short overnight hopefully. Trying to keep my stops outside the sweep zone.

  • DudePlunger

    Exactly what I'm doing. Watching South Park, keeping a hot compress on the huge lump on my arm (that is just some sort of an infection, probably not a bug bite, lol,) and glancing at an hourly chart of the futures and EUR/JPY

  • pierre66

    I hold physical gold as a long term currency/inflation/collapse hedge. I've had it for years and sometimes sell/add to my holdings. I keep it at home in a safe and offshore in a foreign security deposit box.

    I use Tulving. Best dealer and lowest premiums if you can afford the 20 oz. gold/500 oz. silver minimums. Reliable and safe. I consider physical PM's a buy and hold strategy.

    Good Luck!

  • jigdaddy

    its a good feeling…..he is the only one that lays it out there day in day out, gives you the most solid tools to trade with, which in turn completely takes emotion out of the game…..other blog guys will call for the end of the world, or one minute be short, then long, then short, etc…

  • jigdaddy

    have you ever bought a contract and then demand delivery?

  • anotherone

    So I'm looking at some retracement levels and I notice something. On the ES, from the April high at 1210 to the 1040 neckline is 170. From 1040 minus 170 to the H&S target is 870 which also happens to be where a significant low occurred last July. So we're looking at wiping out an entire year's gain. But then 870 minus 170 is 700 which is just above the March 09 lows of 670.

    So much becomes apparent in hindsight. 🙂

  • pierre66

    No, but came real close 18 months ago in the silver market. The 1,000 oz. bars were trading at a real discount to the Eagle/Maple 1 oz. coin prices. Never pulled the trigger but that would have been a good trade. I hope a lot of smart investors nail the LBMA for delivery going forward. Buffet did it years ago on silver and it is time for them to be held, on a widespread basis, to their “promises'.

    Let's hope TRUTH will prevail in the end……

  • anotherone

    Mole, are you by any chance going to let non-subs have access to your Spiral Calendar post? That'd make for some interesting reading over the long weekend coming up.

  • Henny

    Unless you are thinking of it as a short term trade, I found – if you have the means – it's best to just buy some physical. You end up not really caring about the daily fluctuations… I, unless something truly catastrophic happens, never plan on selling my gold.

    I would find a coin dealer or a seller off of craigslist to make your purchase as there are no governmental records (my tin-foil hat is now showing)…

  • Graphite

    When buying physical for my own possession I always buy from Kitco and have been very satisfied with their service. I've also sold them physical metals and had a good experience with it.

    I also have a GoldMoney account which I think is a very good way to “hold” bullion outside the country.

  • elliott_surfs

    if everyone keeps asking, you'll never see that bad-boy

  • UayBalam

    I've had a tough time learning the proper time to close a position and take profits. I usually am too soon or too late but still make a decent amount.

  • Tronacate

    FREELOADERS suck donkey dick……so as soon as you post your donkey dick sucking video…..you'll get access…….

  • chronographics

    Mole Meister, i have been posting US Long Bond Charts for some time, i have repeatedly told the evil rats that
    a) the Bond Traders are smarter than the rest of us (ok maybe just me)
    b) the equity market will wake up one day and realize they have mispriced risk
    c) the correlation between bonds and equities can at some points in time get stretched from a timing perspective

    Not had much comments on them so haven't done them for a few days as i have been a little busy (and evil) sell sell sell
    🙂

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Bond traders are meaner, smarter, and higher paid – equity traders (not unlike us) are the scum of Wall Street these days. The rest (i.e. glorified academics) is working at the rating agencies.

  • sloth_bear

    I don't understand a lot about the bonds but always enjoyed your point of view!

  • chronographics

    Hey you left out FX traders! We (Ok I'll come clean I am also a Analyst by trade and an FX Trader from way back) are like half demented reef fish when given a piece of information, oh and I think Mole you must have been one in a former life as we also like Beer and nudie bars 🙂

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Alright – I'm turning in – need to catch up on my beauty sleep. See you on the other side, guys!

  • chronographics

    You're welcome, I will get another one up shortly n maybe EURJPY if it looks interesting 🙂

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    FX traders – well, there are the pros and then there's a legion of retail idiots who are getting reamed both ways – on the entry/exit/fee side and of course in the market. Not sure why I only rarely play FX – gotta stick to what you're good at I guess.

    How can any human being NOT like nudie bars and especially German beer? 😉

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    You are so polite tonight – thanks for scaring away a stainless steel rat in training :-/

  • elliott_surfs

    LOL. the second i get into that sorta thing, Tron, you'll be the first to know 😉

    (meet me in TJ)

  • chronographics

    Yes and speaking of German Beer I am heading there on the 7th for two weeks, hmm looking forward to the sauerkraut and pork knuckle (as well as the beer) at my Mum's

  • aussiebinlaughin
  • chronographics

    US Long Bond Update
    http://screencast.com/t/Y2E3MzJiM
    As you can see the Osc is embedded firmly above the 80% mark. Would expect any price correction to Stay above the lower channel line. Nothing here to support Equities at present.

  • wordsinmotion

    We keep you alive to serve this ship. Row well and live (10)41…

    Rammstein speed!

  • gsavli

    lol, if he doesn't survive tron's bitching, he's not man enough to be here. 🙂

  • chronographics

    EURJPY
    http://screencast.com/t/ODQ2NjRmMDc
    Looks like we are having a little Correction up at present, if this is an ABC then C= A at 108.55 and C= 1.618 A at 109.11
    High so far high is 108.54 Note Osc is very high at present, if price comes off a turn in Osc from this level is bearish especially if the move up has seen only three waves

  • sloth_bear

    Thanks for the update Chrono

  • sloth_bear

    Here is a sloppy channel that support the C=A case:
    http://screencast.com/t/YTFmOTc3OTAt

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    would some “donkey ass” be enough?

  • sloth_bear

    Too bad it's not 168 (The Fib number)!

  • chronographics

    nice, hm being broken now 🙁

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    was that an attempt to start a short cover rally?

  • CorporalCarrot

    hmm, why are futures getting a woody on this ecb auction?

  • sloth_bear

    The EUR/JPY is really hard to chart, I have a hard time finding “harmonic” channels…

  • raised_by_wolves

    Looking at the world at large . . .

    http://content.screencast.com/users/raised_by_w

    Wouldn't it have sucked to be shorting BP today?

  • sloth_bear

    I didn't now that BP was a “green” company!

  • raised_by_wolves

    Email admin at evilspeculator dot com

  • chronographics

    I hear ya! its always hard to chart crosses, partly its the way some of the quotes on it are done. Not sure depending on who it is but many automated quotes provided to information vendor are done by getting the MID of – in this case – Say EUR 1.2265/69 so 1.2267 and JPY 88.60/64 so 88.63; Then they do the maths 1.2267 x 88.63 = 108.72
    This is whats sent to the vendor for charting. AND heres the catch the market is usually trading at one side of the spread so the traders are quoting say 108.61/66. Now in deeper markets some quote the rate without running it through the USD so you get a bit of movement. All adds up for messy charting on the shorter time frames – just MNSHO

  • raised_by_wolves

    And I thought everyone was “green.”

  • sloth_bear

    Thanks for the highlight!

  • amokta

    exactly, why are US futures up, dax up, ftse up, rbs up

  • jacksoo

    euro banks needed less than expected financial support from ECB – -so in a nutshell their bad, but not as bad as feared. The proverbial less bad news than expected – – at least for now.

  • raised_by_wolves

    "We could see a little bounce here near term but medium term I think this market is going to fall off the plate."

  • jacksoo

    where does that assumption go wrong RBW – -above 65 ES?

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    yes under current accounting rules..ie a lot of stuff still not disclosed…and won't be until either the proverbial hits the fan again..or things get so much better that they can undo all that “stuff” in the market in an orderly fashion (utopia)..

    would need some big help from housing, consumers spending etc…it definitely ain't happening in S Spain..

  • sloth_bear

    EUR/USD higher now than the HOD yesterday!

  • CorporalCarrot

    Anyone see what the Brits have done to the £20 note?

    The new Oxford English Dictionary definition of irony is to be changed folks.

    “Irony – when a government changes the image on its legal tender to that of an economist who espoused the exact opposite economic principles to those of the government currently issuing said legal tender”

  • amokta

    The Soylent Green King is dead….Long Live Soylent Green ?

  • chronographics

    Never let it be said that the Brits don't have a good sense of humour…

  • CorporalCarrot

    I also meant to say, Mole, your 1987/201 $tran chart is fucking kick ass. I will literally piss myself if it happens like that. (and then add that 360 Challenge Stradale to my car collection)

  • TrustFundCowboy

    I trade bonds, and the chatter among everyone is that bonds are screaming deflation. I don't think people quite know how to price that into equities, being the first to take losses in any liquidation, but it certainly isn't good. There are a LOT of big foreign buyers, Japanese life insurers are running from Euro bonds, and they are ecstatic with 3% on 10's and 4% on 30's based on what they get in local guvvies.

  • TrustFundCowboy

    Because the ECB is finally realizing that they've been throwing gas on the deflationary fire by not providing any liquidity and sterilizing their bond buying. Trichet will go down as the worst central banker of the bunch when the dust settles.

  • Thespookyone

    Clockwork Orange, eh Mole? What will it be for the bulls then-” a little bit of the in and out” or some “ultra violence”, LOL.

  • rae17

    Nothing like a big red candle to start the day

  • CorporalCarrot

    Be afraid folks……..CNBC talking head on the floor of the exchange talking to 2 guests, both of whom were, if not outright bullish, certainly of the belief that 1040 support would hold.

    CNBC talking head “for the record, you're on your own, I'm taking my chips off the table” !!!!!!!!

    I've never heard a CNBC dude outright contradict 2 guests who espouse the openly bullish slant of the station.

  • sloth_bear

    AUD/JPY made a lower low!

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    DAX like S&P also at support a break below 5920 targets 5600 min..if we hold thne a re test of the highs at 6300 possible…I'm going for 5600 !

    http://www.screencast.com/t/YWQ5MjQ2NTAt

  • DudePlunger

    Damn, 2 ticks from selling 1045 overnight.

  • OldChicago

    Chicago PMI at 9:45. The philadelphia # was bad last time I recalled.

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    AUDUSD looking for eventual test of .8000..and if we ARE in P3 then a break..this is looking at the longer term picture..

    http://www.screencast.com/t/NTU1MmQ0Y

  • WTFed

    Pretty wacky first 5 minutes here. Like a wobbly cart

  • WTFed

    Ben at Work

  • CorporalCarrot

    Is chicago PMI the one that gets released 2 minutes early to certain market participants?

    Certainly looks that way.

    Its also tempting to wonder; with everyone (and even all the talking heads on TV are on about it) focussed on the 1040 level, is it just a bit too fricking obvious?

  • shortcover

    end of quarter need to hold 1040 is in effect…maybe next week??

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    under normal circunstances we'd be bottoming… we'll need to embeb on oversold to take this lower

  • nugie

    Is anyone have problems with the ZERO chart????

  • WTFed

    Maybe it's just flat as a pancake and you can't see the line.

  • Tooncez

    no problems here. Does it show near the correct time when you refresh it?

  • WTFed

    Pump it Ben!

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    ok shortest erm we should have topped and this is either a nice headfake or we're in for 1050+

  • amokta

    3 Bulls are Leaping, 3 Bears are weeping…5 Gold rings

  • shortcover

    I still say watch TLT (or TBT) as a tell…bond market seems to have been leading the equity market past few months…

  • Tronacate

    l TWM 22.24……..me thinks bounce will fizzle

  • WTFed

    Agreed. Looks feeble so far.

  • nugie

    Thanks my refresh was disabaled

  • sloth_bear

    Thanks for the tip!
    Having a look…

  • http://thefxspeculator.blogspot.com Onorio

    Well beach was fine but now it`s time to bank some coin 🙂

    We migh need another push up before the dump…

  • DudePlunger

    I shorted 1040 about 20min ago.

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    Lets get ready for some fun this week.. Think Nov 2008 opex and the following Monday

  • chronographics

    Yup Yup Yup, that is sure the message they are giving 🙂

  • DudePlunger

    I remember Nov 2008 opex very well. I made like $15,000 that week and felt like I was unstoppable. lol 😀

  • chronographics

    BONDS
    http://screencast.com/t/OWRkYzBiZ

    Ok here is something for the BEARS, Bond prices holding up nicely as OSc slowly comes off Over Bought. this is not good for the Equity Bulls. Shame 🙂

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I actually see intelligent comments this morning – am I on the right blog? 😉

  • http://thefxspeculator.blogspot.com Onorio

    I hope this year and the next we can do that every OPEX 😀

  • chronographics

    EURJPY
    http://screencast.com/t/YjY3YmRjNT

    Osc has turned down from O/B levels, support at 108.20 and 107.60

  • chronographics

    Gonna be an interesting Day today 🙂

  • DudePlunger

    Want to see the infection on my arm? :D.

  • http://thefxspeculator.blogspot.com Onorio

    USDJPY moving down fast while market go up…something is on

  • chronographics

    So long as its only the one on your arm lol

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    I turned $200 into $10k in 1 day.. SKF OTM puts 1 hr before opex friday close when skf was 300.. by monday's close skf was down to 160..

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    What is this – Kindergarten? LOL

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    … after which you were stopped out?

  • skynard

    In the future, MLMT – Please post those if you don't mind. That's awesome dude.

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    If we get a flush today or better still tomorrow, 1 strike OTM July weekly calls on AAPL will make a killing. Those calls expire Friday Jul 3rd. (YES they have weekly options on AAPL now – LOL). Same holds true for IWM and QQQQ and SPY options that expire this Friday.

    Even better strategy to counter the rapid theta and vega burn (on the bounce), do a bull call spread (buy 1 strike OTM call and sell 2 or 3 strike OTM call depending on your outlook for how far the bounce will go)

  • WTFed

    Now that's good input man!

  • DudePlunger

    After which I kept buying massive ammount of puts and lost it all from December-Mid March 08/09.

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    I did exactly same.. gave it all away – LOL

    Easy they come EASIER they go

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    I am expecting a spike above today's range and then dump

  • OldChicago

    ES seems to be moving with EUR/USD this last turn. EUR/JPY were late following suits. This last breakout has no participation from Financial, or GOOG, AAPL.

  • AudioTactics

    I sold some more bonds this morning near the highs.

    I think bonds will see some selling pressure now… just a short-term trade probably held into next week.

  • http://thefxspeculator.blogspot.com Onorio

    I`ve got a abc complete from LOD, now (c)=0.6x(a), (c)=(a) arround 1051 that is 38% of previous down leg.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    AUD/JPY?

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    1051 ES or SPX ?

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    LOL – everyone busy covering their shorts?

  • WTFed

    Don't taunt us!

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    a top (fast k100 w%r0) but lazy and r(at)si a bit low and we didn't quite touche the upper bb

    still more ramping after this next fall

  • http://thefxspeculator.blogspot.com Onorio

    SPX

  • http://thefxspeculator.blogspot.com Onorio

    I`ll cover my shorts in august 😀

  • BobbyLow

    Choppy today. Difficult to see the Shark Fins swimming about.

    I did a little minor tweaking by taking the short side of part of my Long Insurance SPY Bull 108/111 Call Spread for a little profit. Still down on the Long 108's and not being helped by the 6% Drop in the Vix.

    Covered the Short Side of my XLE 2:1 Back Spread for a a little profit as well and took 1/2 the Long side off for a net BE. Still down on the remaining long XLE.

    Other than that, that's all I'm doing for now while the “market” decides whether this is a DCB or more of a bounce.

    We shall see what we shall see.

  • TrustFundCowboy

    Risk/reward I think that is a safe play. At the very least, I am expecting a sideways chop here to work off overbought conditions. It looks like the Euro might start catching a bid here as well now that the ECB has finally realized how pig headed they've been fiddling while Rome burns.

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    probably! Still seems a lot looking to buy 1040……let's see …

  • http://thefxspeculator.blogspot.com Onorio

    So here`s the deal so far…IMO today bounce is just another w(ii) since yesterday move could not be a w(iii) because that way would be shorter than w(i), in this case we`re extending this 3rd wave and we should drop further from here.

    If this is P3 im not expecting big bounces, we should drop fast and hard, i expect 850 before the end of july.

  • amokta

    Is this possible – i have some recent (way out time-wise & strike) puts on FAS but they havent gone from $200 to $10K

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    Nov 2008 opex when SKF was 300+ –> SKF OTM puts expiring same day (I think 270 or 280 strike) were available for $2 – at 2:30pm ET. By the close SKF was down to 240. I didnt sell the puts. On the weekend they assigned me 100 SKF short. By monday close, SKF was down to 170 or so… There you go.

    You can generate these kind of multiples by getting puts on inverse ETFs whey they are sky high.. puts on FAS work much differently..

    FAZ did not have puts back in Nov 2008.. because FAZ had come out as an ETF only on Nov 1, 2008. FAZ HOD on Nov 2008 opex day was 200.xx.. By Monday EOD it was down to 70 bucks I think.. 66% haircut.. These are insane products.. and if you use them right, you can make a fortune.. but if you use them the wrong way, you lose big..

    Back in Nov 2008, I wasnt aware of the decay on these leveraged ETFs.. so with my profits from SKF puts on Monday, I bought FAZ.. guess what FAZ never saw 100+ (I think it did briefly for an hour or so in March 2009)…

    If we start going up again.. FAZ will be back to 2 bucks again by Oct IMO

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    BUCY has been up 6% today. For those looking to short the bounce, Jul 50 puts on BUCY will be very nice… it REALLY moves very very fast.

  • amokta

    Thanks. Will keep this in mind!

  • fisheggs

    Thank you MLMT

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    It could also be PPT trying to keep the indices above a certain level for the monthly and quarterly close.

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    Another good downside play is AMZN. It went down to 106 yesterday.. It has a big gap down to 90 level.. Good chance it gets filled if we dump to 101x level

  • OldChicago

    crude oil crashing. 😕

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    If we take out yesterday's lows before 2pm… watch out for a 2:25-2:30pm bottom

  • amokta

    Finally, my oil short is coming into play.
    You know the old saying – where oil goes, the spx is sure to follow (??)

  • BobbyLow

    $74.68 – $1.28

  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

    ES “bullish” backtest of a PRS133 channel

    I am looking for a break lower, not to go long.

    http://screencast.com/t/MWE1Nzgx

    Also posted a few boatload of charts, all shorts.

    Have at it and please comment

    http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/

  • http://thefxspeculator.blogspot.com Onorio

    I`ve shorted USDJPY @ 88.50 on Tenken sen (30m) cross. 50pip target @ 88.00

  • DarthTrader

    Maybe 1 or 2 right in the Yarbles . . . then head off to the Moloka Milk Bar

  • http://www.flickr.com/photos/dabasia/sets/ Croozer

    That's cliff edge is about to give way….

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    It's quarter end – nothing will happen today. Not that I wouldn't mind being wrong about that one – hehe…

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Is that an old saying or you just made that up?

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    It's quarter end – nothing bearish happens today.

  • Tronacate

    AUDUSD sure suggests lower soon…..would like to see eurjpy make a hard move south……pretty meager of a bounce after such a hard selloff…..flatline workoff of oversold condition sets us up for a nice flush……

  • http://www.flickr.com/photos/dabasia/sets/ Croozer

    perhaps I'm mis-reading the lul……just feels like it's about to die…..

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Look at the zero – nothing happening there.

  • ricebowl

    So we're skipping ridiculously evil and going straight to ludicrously evil?

  • http://www.flickr.com/photos/dabasia/sets/ Croozer

    If it can't sell off…..an end of day ramp is likely to window dress as best they can…..

  • Tronacate

    Tight doji day would actually make alot of sense

  • ricebowl

    He read it in a fortune cookie.

  • WTFed

    here we go

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    hope so ..can short more then

  • DudePlunger

    Yeah, I just hedged myself as we're trading exactly where I added that second short at 1040. Now I can just confidently hold this position, and short up above if we rally a bit.

  • Tronacate

    So no unemployment bennies will make employment rate look great eh?

  • Tronacate

    Market leaders look like lower coming…..esp aapl

  • DarthTrader

    Wow, Haven't been able to load the comment Box today.

    MoleCool Love the Fractal CHART

    My cup of tea Big Time

    Here are 2 Fractals That I have picked out over last Few months

    This Chart shows the Fractal from 2006, 07 08 and the Current Fractal both highlit w/ black back ground.
    http://i198.photobucket.com/albums/aa84/Innovis

    And this is 1920 to 1955 Dow Chart showing the Credit bubble “Roaring 20's” into the Depression and the 26 years back to the 1929 high
    http://s198.photobucket.com/albums/aa84/Innovis

    Sorry for the Photo quality I'll have to get another service my good one is out of service

  • Tronacate

    Added 1 TF short

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    I never though it would, let's see what i said today

    NEAR 11:45

    a top (fast k100 w%r0) but lazy and r(at)si a bit low and we didn't quite touche the upper bb

    still more ramping after this next fall

    NEAR 10 AM

    ok shortest erm we should have topped and this is either a nice headfake or we're in for 1050+

    NEAR OPEN

    under normal circunstances we'd be bottoming… we'll need to embeb on oversold to take this lower

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    For anyone who took the BUCY puts trade, BUCY is down almost 2% from HOD – talk about a fast mover.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    going out for the day, don't let this make a 50 point move without me 😉

    (though we might make a violent close, either that or tomorrow we risk a hard ramp)

  • jigdaddy

    do we have an IHS on the ES for the day?

  • Tronacate

    zzzzzzzzzzzzzz

  • Tooncez

    Can you send a screen shot or at least the time scale? I'm not seeing anything that smacks me in the face as an IHS…

  • BobbyLow
  • jigdaddy

    1051 target if we break IHS neckline…

  • Tronacate

    A little move there to suck in the longs for more distribution…….

  • OldChicago

    EUR/JPY just falled out of up trend from yesterday's lo.

  • jigdaddy

    sure, not sure if it qualifies…

    http://www.screencast.com/users/jigdaddy/folder

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Guys – I have better things to do than to watch this crap. Let's see what happens tomorrow – I am going to take care of some chores. Will probably post a quick comment cleaner/update later this afternoon.

    Stay frosty!!

  • http://thefxspeculator.blogspot.com Onorio

    No frost in here…95F outside.

  • ricebowl

    Bought more lottery tickets…

  • WTFed

    How far out?

  • DudePlunger

    Shorted 1039, giving myself 3 ES Shorts vs 2 NQ shorts. Plan for today is simple–I'm stopping 1 /ES Short at 1044, above the day's high. If we breakdown, I'm selling 1030, a breakdown of yesterday's low. If I'm filled, I instantly secure 1035, and hope for continued selling through 1030. Then depending where we close, I'll probably pull off 3 /ES contracts and 1 /NQ contract, and leave 1 and 1 overnight. I don't want to be too leveraged overnight, I'd rather take my profits today if I'm given them, as I've been breaking even/down for the last 3 weeks.

  • Tronacate

    Cmon zero…..confirm this move…..

  • amokta

    if we stay a doji day, then there is a risk of a gap up tomorrow
    if we fall hard today , there is a likelihood of a bounce tomorrow
    if we ramp-up today, then thats not good for ST shorts (stop-loss hit)

    -so i am inclined to close out at least ST (short-term) shorts today, whatever the price action
    -tell me it ain't so

  • amokta

    i forgot to say that if we have a doji day, we could gap down tomorrow, but is that likely, given we have already fallen over last few days

  • http://chartsandthat.blogspot.com/ ultra

    IHS 5 min? Would like to see hit least the 23.6% fib first > SPX 1055.

  • http://chartsandthat.blogspot.com/ ultra

    Meanwhile, there is stuff going on out there and it's all about the EUR.

    Sterling has been on a good run, that looks like it's just run out of puff:

    http://tinyurl.com/2ulgkro

    Also, falling knife EURCHF must be due for a rocket bounce fairly soon – nearly completed 5 waves down for a final C (?) – wave 5 = 2 x wave 1 around 1.3087…

  • jigdaddy

    i think you should position yourself for a long term play. daytrading this shit is gonna eat you up…

  • jigdaddy

    on the other hand, please cover, thats usually when the market falls 🙂

  • amokta

    ive got the LT covered with puts. But im playing ST with etf – up on sxpu edz, dto, dont want to lose those profits!

  • Tronacate

    I don't even pay attention to small timeframe H&S……..

  • n2thezonez

    Treasuries just got a big bid as the Euro stumbles

  • jigdaddy

    SL @ 1045?

  • ricebowl

    Aug 36 QQQQ. I also put in a bid for July 42 QQQQ at $10, but I didn't get filled. If we get the drop down to SPX 900~930 before they expire, then they're going to be worth quite a bit.

  • amokta

    stop-loss on spxu at 36

  • jigdaddy

    fun begins when euro breaks 1.2141

    http://www.screencast.com/users/jigdaddy/folder

  • WTFed

    sweet

  • raised_by_wolves

    Yeah, I think the IHS has a high probability of playing out. It helps that the ZL is flat, and participation is weak. Plus, there's an objective; there's a gap to attempt to fill.

  • http://chartsandthat.blogspot.com/ ultra

    It may just be taking its sweet time of course, but I think the main thing to take from the EURUSD chart is how it held up so strongly when all around was falling off the plate.

    I suspect this one goes north.

  • Tronacate

    ZL still flat…….cmon…..lets see some participation

  • psycho_puppies

    P3 should not care about end of 1/4.

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    Hope you are enjoying your BUCY trade – ES down 5 points; BUCY down 5% – LOL

  • raised_by_wolves

    An IHS has already played out for EUR/JPY, and it could downtrend from here (you tell me). AUD/JPY continued downtrending today and has just made a new low.

  • WTFed

    Right on. Let's say the “window dressing” expectation doesn't pan out because managers are not inclined to be buying anything here. Can't we also expect that they aren't about to buy it just to support performance it for the quarter. Ridiculous! P3 will do what it wants when it wants.

  • http://pitch3.zstock7.com/ zstock7 Pro Select!

    I'm waiting for ESI and STRA, ( educ) to have a first up day…Falling knives…APOL at 42, kind of too low.

  • http://chartsandthat.blogspot.com/ ultra

    Yen is what you want your savings in so far as I can see…. it's whacking everything – and more importantly, it's whacking everything when stocks plunge – even the Swissie.

    Now why is that if Japan is (also) so colossally fcuked?

  • gsavli

    my guess is – they're in deep deflation, hence, their money is worth more.

  • raised_by_wolves

    The probability of the IHS is decreasing with continued AUD/JPY weakness and/or renewed EUR/JPY weakness.

  • http://thefxspeculator.blogspot.com Onorio

    Everybody fasten your seat-belts….

  • psycho_puppies

    No mare Santa Rally, nore more mutual fund Monday, no more holiday weekend ramp up.. this is P3 bitches! LOL

  • amokta

    futures on the lower side of days range

  • WTFed

    Mole left too early.

  • DudePlunger

    Approaching yesterday's low. 30minutes left. It's about to get exciting.

  • Schwerepunkt

    Whoooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooosh. Sell in May and go away.

  • ricebowl

    Yup. My Aug 36 QQQQ have gone from $39 -> $44 (+10%) so far. I bought the July 42 QQQQ at $15, and they're now at $19 (+25%). They're tiny positions, though.

  • Tronacate

    audusd getting clobbered……

  • gsavli

    just how accurate that saying is, unbelieveable 🙂

  • WTFed

    Nice work man

  • BobbyLow

    I think you're right P_P. VIX is working its way back to flat after being down 6%.

    One can almost smell the fear. 🙂

  • UayBalam

    What's the zero saying, my iphizzle doesn't support flash ><

  • WTFed

    Spill Baby Spill!

  • amokta

    huge drop?

  • DudePlunger

    Below yesterday's low, I've been building, Short 5 ES, Long 3 NQ. Stopping 3 /ES Short @ 1033 to secure profits, otherwise letting them ride into the close and I'd like to hold 2 short overnight at 1030, and 1 long NQ @ 1751 (both positions right near yesterday's lows for a reason.)

  • n2thezonez

    They're gonna need to send out an alert to the Stick-Save goalie. Has he already left for the holiday?

    Looks like he'll need a bigger stick today

  • http://thefxspeculator.blogspot.com Onorio

    here`s (iii) of [iii], gap down tomorrow.

  • Tronacate

    ES support……..1024 1014,1002,991.50,939.75

  • aussiebinlaughin

    'This is it…This is it', quote from somone famous i think 🙂

  • amokta

    Im no technophile analyst, but market seems very beerish to me!

  • gsavli

    you don't have to be one to see this 🙂

  • amokta

    lets hope we are not counting our roosters before they lay eggs!

  • Wave_Surfer

    wow!
    price action is making me wake from my afternoon nap

  • amokta

    **ridicoulous** dip this late in the day

  • amokta

    disqus fail before – seems to co-incide with market dips!

  • http://thefxspeculator.blogspot.com Onorio

    At this pace we`ll see 950 before Friday numbers…

    By the way i hate Disqus.

  • DudePlunger

    Finally had myself a great day. Pulled in a solid $900, and am holding overnight–2 short @ 1030, and 1 long nq @ 1851.

  • chronographics

    Shit haven't been able to log into DISCUS till now.

    Here update on the US Long Bond
    http://screencast.com/t/OTFkNWYzYz

    Bonds just keep giving Equities the Bad News…

  • aussiebinlaughin

    NOT there quite yet, but this looks and feels much better than the shake outs over the last few months. Panic is in the air and finally the hungry bears can smell it and are taking action.

  • chronographics

    Great trading Dude,guess that infection didn't spread from your arm 🙂

  • OldChicago

    Was that (ii) of iii today? Or (iv) of (i) of iii? There are MACD divergence on hourly for all indexes.

    Last July we had a failed H-S. This time around the H-S @ 1040 just seems to be too obvious. Been there and burned.

  • DudePlunger

    Since the quarter ended today, I'll share my May and June results here:

    http://i49.tinypic.com/14938sz.jpg

    Surely not going to buy some foreclosed properties trading like that, but the consistency isn't bad.

  • DudePlunger

    Thanks, you holding positions overnight?

  • chronographics

    Yes just short one emini n short one mio euro 🙂

  • amokta

    franken-atilla is back, if your interested in his blog

  • jigdaddy

    hey mole, does it concern you that a majority of pundits are now turning bearish?

  • sloth_bear

    Thank you for sharing this with us, it's rare to see so much honesty!!

  • sloth_bear

    Ouch!

  • http://chartsandthat.blogspot.com/ ultra

    Hadn't looked at a gold chart in a while – looking like it's going to break down sooner rather than later..

    http://tinyurl.com/3245gyd

  • gsavli

    AAPL chart is interesting. I see no real support until 242 from here. And what is even more interesting are lower indicators which show there is plenty of room down from here.

    http://www.uploadgeek.com/share-42FF_4C2BABE2.html

  • http://chartsandthat.blogspot.com/ ultra

    Is Atilla hinting at swing long here?? The plot most definitely thickens…

    http://tinyurl.com/3ygwsbh

  • sloth_bear

    I play EUR/USD for the corrections and really like AUD/JPY when we take the road to the south…

  • DudePlunger

    I think a flush lower tomorrow morning into 1010-1000 (MAYBE even as low as 975) and a sharp bounce for July 4th weekend wouldn't be too out of the ordinary. But I am short overnight.

  • BobbyLow

    I tried to post just before the close and with so many Bears sharing Disqus, they must have crashed the server with excitement.

    So this must be Double Kill of Soylent Green and that's fine with me. I covered some of my shorter term Shorts too early today and sold some of my short term Longs a little late. But as I said yesterday, for me that's just Insurance Premium.

    The bottom line is that my Net Short Combo finished the day respectfully up and that's the object of my game which is to end the day better than the day before.

    Also, if somebody had told me that my Lottery Tickets of March 2011 SPY Put Strikes of 60's and and 65's would be up 68% this quickly, I would have thought they were dreaming. I wonder what they would be worth if they were ITM before the end of the year?

    Now I'm not “counting chickens before they hatch” – I'm just sayin. 🙂

  • jigdaddy

    ive got dec 90s and i think they will definitlely be ITM before year end…at that point im not sure if i'll roll out to march 60s or go long or wait to reload on a bounce…

    im trying to make a plan and trade it 😉

  • DarthTrader

    This Market is like a Runaway Train and the brakes in each car are sequentially failing adding to the speed.

  • mmTesla

    Hey Mole. I appreciate your condolences and kind words. I know I have been critical of some of your comments or analysis in the past, I also have defended both of those as well. Much appreciated.

    mmTesla.

  • jigdaddy

    definitely confused now.. if 1155 taken out 1267 WTF?? thats a huge swing…

    mole declares p3 and atilla is going long….i think i will side with mole at this point as his charts and commentary are fare more in depth then xtrends….

    also dont forget those guys at xtrends pretty much fucked every single one of their readers during the rally that they completely missed..

    back when sol posted his trades, he was going long/short 100s of ES contracts and at certain points 1500 contracts…i have a feeling that is complete bullshit as a reader pointed out that he went and looked at the time and sales of those trades and couldnt find the proof..

    paper trading perhaps or perhaps adding 0's to the number of contracts they really trade. beats the hell out of me..

  • BobbyLow

    Cool.

    Having a plan is 1/2 the battle.

    I also own some December 90's and December 105's that are tied to Bear Put Spreads along with a few unencumbered August 95's.

    All I can say is that I feel fortunate to have been able to survive this Faux Rally since March 2009.

    Better than expected, Not as Bad as expected and Worse than expected but in a good kind of way CRAPOLA took its toll on a lot of fellow traders some of who got taken out.

    It's not over yet, but I like our chances.

  • jigdaddy

    we just need the VIX to help us out now….im a little confused on the VIX right now as i feel it should be trading much higher and helping our premiums out a little more…

  • amokta

    Just realised i have forgot to read todays ewi stu
    – mabe just reading this blog + moles posts is (almost) as good as reading stu, hence forgot 🙂

  • Fearless

    Mole,

    I subscribed to Zero a few days ago to see if it adds a valuable tool in my TA arsenal. I have to say it's already more than paid for itself in just one week. 🙂 I was pretty good at TA before becoming a Zero sub, but ZL adds the confirmation signal I was always looking for (I don't use EW btw, but I like your work).

    Anyways, I am a bit paranoid by nature, so here is my paranoia talking:
    You had mentioned that you noted major bottoms are preceded by a stronger than -3 signal on the Zero daily, followed by a non-participation (zero or slight above zero signal) lower low the next day or two. Did we have that today? Based on my own TA and projections, I think we crash next week, but the potential NYMO positive divergence has me a bit nervous (granted, it can be wiped out by strong bearish moves). I may actually grab some calls tomorrow just to avoid getting hurt in a short squeeze of mammoth proportions. I have to see how the market reacts when it approaches 1040 on the back test. Another thing is that today's volume was lower, although the sell-off after 3 pm ET was on heavy volume.

    Please let me know what you think.

  • BobbyLow

    I track the VIX everyday and on 6/21 it closed @22.87 and 9 days later on today it closed at 34.54 which is a 55% increase. So in relative terms and open for opinion it is moving pretty good.

    Some more Bear Food is that I've been looking at Conventional T/A looking at a potential SPY Black Cross on the Daily Horizon . Right now the 200 is at 110.42 and the 50 is at 111.73. The 50 seems to coming down very fast so that could add more fuel to the fire.

    Speaking of fuel, I've got to take a break and get some dinner so I'll catch ya on the other side.

  • Wave_Surfer

    The '87 fractal graph from The Book of the Dead brings up a great point.
    I think, by default, most Elliotticians assume that Intermediate Wave 3 will be the extended wave in Primary 3, but the truth is there is definitely the non-trivial chance that Intermediate wave 3 could be the extended wave.

    Since we appear to be in Minor wave 3 of Intermediate wave 1, this possibility becomes critically important in the next few days, – – just as that fractal shows.
    Even if there is only a 15% to 20% chance it happens, that is still plenty large enough chance to make sure you are prepared for it.

    Along these lines, what if P3 is not the extended wave in Cycle c? It could just as easily be Primary wave 5 that ends up being the extended wave. On the other hand, wave 3 can't be the smallest wave, and so, therefore, a 60% drop in Dow Jones is enough that we should be able to get some profit from it.

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Atilla thought the market was going much lower than 666. And it never did. HE will be wrong here. He does not really follow Elliott wave theory.He will miss the big plunge

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Good stuff Mole. Very good charts. This time we will have lots of CAKE….

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    Dear Mole

    now that it's freeloading time I'll make my comments:

    1. Very nice work
    2. I agree that we'll have to sell embebed on oversold (said as much today)
    3. we're still not there, I'd keep a watch on the 2004, (or even summer of 2007) replay
    4. still have to check where technical damage would invalidate that 2004 fear, but i'm sure it's way south of 1 k

    Now for some Hamster Time

    BPSPX… neither man nor god should now stop this thing beforewe hit 41 or even 30 (or in a scenario of a flash drop to sub 17 BTW near 10 GO LONG)

    SPX:VIX I don't particularly like what happened today, we unhooked from the lower BB and that means there is a non-null risk of a climb to 40 (and beyond if well used by ppt/bulls, and even 40 is a +30% trip), I need to see a very hard drop monday and then we'll talk about my “19” (no longer 19, likely 12)

    SPX:CPCE says we're in january 2008, one last ramp and drop before true wave 2 of p3 (or of wave 5 of P3)… still it's already touching the lower bb on weekly… you know what that means

    SPX:GOLD still sliding the lower bb but trying to unhook….how far in 2008 are we? In fact this is one of the leading indicators for my fear of this being 2004, in 2008 we had droped way further (new lows). Or should I accept that current attitude towards rebalancing the budgets was enough for most to accept a full defltionist scenario and no need of gold as insurence against government printing?

    BOTTOM LINE (fruitcake) we're in a third wave, most likely circa january-march 2008, will try and project times and targets under that assumption, NEVERTHELESS and in spite of several (cpce, vix) values beyond values then, we should NOT forget 2004 as a serious risk (there is a smaller risk of august 2007)

    DO COMMENT (Mole and others, please, i'd appreciate any feedback, i'd realy like to have some different oppinions or any confirmations by other means)

  • jigdaddy

    yeah he did, he shorted every rally…he's been expecting below 666 for the past year, made calls about crashes in the past month and just like MLMT said, he destroys his readers as they get into front month 3x ETF options expecting a crash…

  • UayBalam

    I bought some AAPL 240 Puts when it was trading at 270. Suffered for a week and now am up 100%.

  • psycho_puppies

    Man those charts are beautiful! Thanks for releasing them to the freeloaders. Perhaps you should set up a beer tip jar donation button… I don’t really have a use for a day trading oscillator, but I do appreciate all your work. I know I have a few coins laying around here somewhere.

  • n2thezonez

    I don't know if will end up happening, but that '87 analog is Jenna Jameson of Bear Porn!

  • ricebowl

    Turns out that I bought July 42 QQQQ that expires on 07/02… whoops! They still might go in the money, amazingly.

  • yudhisthira

    Maybe finishing SPX 3rd wave down from June 21st.
    http://screencast.com/t/NTkwY2Ni

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    with those numbers it would be more of a Tracy Lords, underaged and overstuffed

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    “I think, by default, most Elliotticians assume that Intermediate Wave 3 will be the extended wave in Primary 3, but the truth is there is definitely the non-trivial chance that Intermediate wave 3 could be the extended wave.”

    Huh? Say again?

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    drop some @239, @217, @177… word from the hamster

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    It's non-trivial to assess the Zero in the context of the wave progression. Every step of the market has its own characteristics. A flat market in a bear market rally probably has a different underlying reason than one that occurs within a first Intermediate wave at the onset of a large degree correction.

    Within a particular session I think the interpretations and especially the divergences are probably identical. But I am not sure how to interpret the current flat signals – especially in the context of a pre-4th-July week. What I DO know is that we went down on a day that bulls should have defended to death, and that has meaning beyond the the signal IMHO. What I'm thinking right now is that a non-bullish signal basically is a continuation of the current trend (i.e. down) – if it was summer 2009 then a non-bearish signal basically meant that we kept going higher.

    Does this make sense?

  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

    Communication and math are essential trading skills, refer to the funny post below that guides in improvement of these skills.

    http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/2010/06/communi

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    hamstranslator from wavish to molish w(iii) of wave 1 of P3 could extend

  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

    Makes alot of sense to me. Or it could be a classic trap….drop the market just below into the entry zone, and then blast it higher — locking in neo bears like deer in the headlights. But I don't think so.

  • Fearless

    Makes good sense to me.

    What I normally do is I draw a trend line on the RSI daily connecting the first instance of positive/negative divergences. If/when this trend line breaks, it confirms a trend change. I got out of all long hedges yesterday because of this trend line break. I think the probability of a crash next week is much higher than what most people realize.

  • Scoops

    Big increase in commercial shorts last week.

    http://snalaska.net/cot/current/charts/ES.png

  • Wave_Surfer

    Like what SSH said.

    Or in the Bible..
    page 32. Figure 1-5
    First Wave Extension instead of Third Wave Extension

    “In the stock market, the most commonly extended wave is wave 3.”
    Certainly in the credit crisis, wave 3 within that 5 wave structure was the extended wave since so much of the movement happened in October 2008.

    Now…
    What if….
    In Primary Wave 3, what if the most powerful wave was (intermediate) Wave 1?
    If wave 1 of P3 was the extended wave, it could easily be the middle (aka wave 3) of Wave 1 of P3 that extended.

    Meaning that instead of normal and like the credit crisis, where the BIG explosive meat of the move happens at wave 3 of 3 within the 5 wave structure. (October 2008) within the 18 month 5 wave we call the credit crisis.

    If wave 1 was the extended wave instead of wave 3, then the BIG explosive meat of the move of P3 would happen . . . . NOW! At wave 3 of 1 of P3.

    And the 1987 analogy describes perfectly how it would look and how it could happen.

    My eye opener is that.
    … since Wave 3 is USUALLY the extended wave, we all tend to ASSUME it is. But Wave 3 is NOT always the extended wave, therefore it could be Wave 1 or wave 5 of P3 that ends up being the extended wave. Since we are at wave 3 of 3 within wave 1 of P3, our version of October 2008 could happen NOW.

    Sorry, I write so poorly and convoluted. I guess that is why we leave it up to the Pros like you. If I am still writing poorly then you can just use SSH sentence.

  • n2thezonez

    What I find odd, and I've noticed this sort of inconsistentcy between instruments before:

    On the SPX E-minis… Commercials are heavily short, while small specs. are heavily long

    However, on the big SPX contract…. Commercials are quite long, while small specs are quite short

  • Wave_Surfer

    Also, I guess I would have been more clear, if I had not done a typo.

    “”I think, by default, most Elliotticians assume that Intermediate Wave 3 will be the extended wave in Primary 3, but the truth is there is definitely the non-trivial chance that Intermediate wave -> ONE <- could be the extended wave.””

    Intermediate wave ONE could be the extended wave instead of having the 'common' wave 3 be the extended wave.

    We often talk about the market taking people by surprise, what if the October 2008 part of P3 happened RIGHT NOW. Percentage wise how many people, bears or bulls, are ready for the biggest, most powerful move of this 2 year P3 wave to happen Right Now?

    I agree that having Chris add the eclipse adds a lot to the graph!

  • jigdaddy

    there is a very important trend line that the SPX is riding/or just broke thru depending on where you connect the candles. Im looking at the SPX all time high and the SPX high for 2008 which took place in May, if you connect those to together you notice that we are so close to breaching it or already have done so(on a daily/weekly/monthly/quarterly basis)…im not an expert at drawing trend lines so whoever is interested might want to connect those two candles and take a look for themselves..

  • DudePlunger

    I unsubscribed from STU to subscribe to Mole.

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    More red tonight with ES….Welcome to hell

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    I don't see any real support on spx until 900-950….Boy oh boy teddy bear is getting all lathered up tonight.

  • Wave_Surfer

    I don't know what the word “embebed” means. Sorry.

    Of course, any of us can always be wrong, and that is why I am not begging and borrowing and taking a 2nd mortgage out etc. and put it ALL in medium term puts right now. Having me not do that is about as far as I will go in entertaining that we are entering 2004 again. I just don't see it. I don't fear it. Though I do recognize it is possible, hence the slim hint of sanity in my money management.

    How long will you wait before you become comfortable that we are in P3? We have already fallen 15% or so and we may only fall 60% total in P3. Talk to a perma bull, during every step down there will be a reason to fear a bounce up.

    Anyway..
    I do think you make good points and that a disciplined trader will keep them in mind and they will also manage their money so they don't blow up in case we end up in 2004 or 2007.

    On the other hand, I like Mole's plan a lot. A decent chunk in longer term cheap puts as a P3 play and, until there is some solid reason to think we are not in P3, I think the majority of the evidence says we are in P3 and therefore should be played that way. Feel free to play a bit more conservative and with 1 eye towards it not being P3, but kind of like the P2 melt up, the trend seems to have changed and we should play it IMHO. I think P2 burned off enough fear and retraced enough to consider it a healthy and done P2 and looking at the action of the last 2 and half months it seems to me like P3 has started.

    I guess what I am saying is, you have good smart thoughts, but for better or worse, I have less fears than you do that we are not solidly in P3.

    To help with your fears, mole is good at doing good wave counts which includes showing at what price points a particular wave count becomes invalid, so feel free to keep an eye on price points that would indicate a non-P3 wave count.

  • BobbyLow

    SSH,

    I appreciate your input. I remember 2004. Wave Surfer implied it and I will build on it. In 2004 the Housing Bubble was just beginning to be inflated. The ATM free money to support our economy had just begun and had 3 more years to max out. Consumer Credit was free – Everything was free.

    The Bill for that party has come and is long overdue. The Tax payer is Tapped out. Job Creation is terrible. China now has Labor and Material Cost Problems. Europe is fucked.

    Other than that, all is well. 🙂

  • yudhisthira

    Ditto, my mental state has been so much better.
    Can I say that?

  • Wave_Surfer

    In case I didn't already confused everyone with my ramblings…
    I was thinking about how Cycle Wave c might unfold.
    Instead of just assuming that waves 1,3 and 5 all unfold in the 'common' way where wave 3 of 3 of each of those waves is the extended wave, what if things unfolded in a way that would catch more people off guard.

    Wouldn't it be nice if P3 ended up being just like P1 and after wave 1 of P3 is done, everyone bulls and bears all recognized P3 started and then we get a healthy wave 2 bounce and then a large number of people would be onboard for wave 3 of P3.

    On the other hand, what if wave 1 of P3 was the extended wave. By the time that people were convinced we were in P3, the meat of the move had already happened!

    Along with many other possibilities I was thinking of a wave count that would make things difficult for the highest number of people and yet in hindsight it will still look like and “oh, of course” with proper Elliott wave counting.

    What if things unfold like this..

    Cycle c that started in August of 2007.
    Primary 1 has the standard very extended wave 3. It had a nice 1,2,1,2 that took a year to unfold to keep people asleep for the dump that was wave 3 of 3.

    Primary 2 was a 13 or 14 month sharp move up that properly made people more afraid of the market going up than being afraid of the market going down.

    Primary 3. What if this was about the same size as Primary wave 1 and had Wave 1 as its extended wave. Bulls and bears alike would get caught off guard at the big move.

    Primary 4. I figure this will be a meandering flat or triangle that I am guessing will actually last for a bit over TWO years! If you thought P2 was hard at 13 months and always going up, how about an unstable TWO years of it going up and down and yet never really going anywhere?

    Primary 5. What if this ends up being the extended wave within Cycle c? I could see this looking like 1930 to 1932, where it goes down, but it just does lots of small down and up, down and up. You can't even really figure out which wave is extended, it will just look like a 13 count wave! Again, just like it was in 1930 to 1932. OK, is this gonna be the end? It is bouncing. Is it over? Nope. Down again. Then finally 1 day, the 9th or the 13th wave down will end and then we have 10 to 20 years of up, where the stock price increase may be half from the market actually going up and half from inflation making the price larger. Kind of like the late 70's.

    Potential Scenario?

  • Wave_Surfer

    I agree.
    I think that the 2004 and 2007 shenanigans are over.
    The market will find some other way to 'fool us.'

  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

    In 1000 trading days, I have never seen the ES (S&P 500 Futures) take a big move during the Asian session. It is doing so today, and finding support and resistance on some important lines.

    Please comment.

    http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/2010/06/es-impo

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    If you said 1000 calendar days, you would be correct.. But not so with 1000 trading days…

    Feb last week 2007 – I am sure ES went down big on china news. I think we ended the next day down 60 points

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    We saw this action in wave 3 in P1 :)……………Its time for wave 3 in P3

  • yudhisthira

    Any bigger decline tonight and I'm going to start thinking we start scaring people.
    So far my coworkers are paying no attention to the market decline like they did in 2008.
    It really isn't headline stuff yet. Hence no bottom, I suppose if this is the real thing.

  • jigdaddy

    hey great call on BUCY today…

  • n2thezonez

    In the past 1000 trading days, there have definitely been larger overnight moves than this!

  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

    Not overnight moves….I was restricting my comment to “during the Asian session”, usually nothing happens until the Brits show up.

  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

    Agreed, the few longs I know are just upset they aren't doing better.

    The Euro can tank this b'atch, and drag it to Davy Jones locker. Or we can bounce off the 38 Fib.

  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

    I am calling this wave 3 of Primary 1, this aint the real P3 yet. Just an opinion.

  • n2thezonez

    Gotcha

  • n2thezonez

    Is your ultimate target on the SPX (-750) 😉

  • yudhisthira

    Will find out how strong that 38 fib line is by the time I wake in the morning.
    Or it could do the courteous thing and smash through before I turn in.
    I hate checking my blackberry during the night when I roll over.
    Can't help it though, if I'm making money.

  • yudhisthira

    Mole must be working on a tremendous post in the quiet of the night.

  • Wave_Surfer

    Wave 3 of wave 1
    of P3

    Wave 3 Minor
    of
    Wave 1 Intermediate
    of
    Wave 3 Primary

    I think some people confuse Primary 1 with
    wave 3 of 3 of Primary 1

    Primary 1 was a full Eighteen months long.
    October 2008 was only 1 month long.
    Primary is a longer wave but most of a Primary wave does not necessarily move fast and hard.
    For example Primary 1 went on for a YEAR before people woke up!

    And I think people associate the hottest part of Primary wave 1, (wave 3 of 3 with inside P1) as P1 and tend to forget the first 12 months of Primary wave 1.

    Another sign that people are mixing up a primary wave with the fastest part of a primary wave is that people were getting excited when P3 was starting.

    Think about it, it could easily have been – yet again – Over a full year of comparatively slow movement before anything exciting happens. Just because P3 has started doesn't mean it won't be a snoozefest for a year or more.

    That said, I think there is a real chance that in P3, it will be wave 1 (aka NOW) that will extend instead of a long delayed wave 3 of 3.

    Again, a Primary level wave takes a year or years, so just because you start a Primary wave doesn't mean you will have any excitement.

    I also agree with you and Mole, this is wave 3 of 1 of the next move down, which is P3.

    And if we don't have a 1987 thing start in the next 48 hours, wave 3 will end fairly soon and there will be lots of up and down going no where and lack of excitement for many months.

  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

    hehe, 200

  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

    OK I like the way you said it.

  • psycho_puppies

    Exactly, so far this is a set aside event. Who’s on American Idol what Vampire is …..?

  • psycho_puppies

    Yeah, Bulls are fucked LOL

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

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    ¨°º¤ø„¸ N E W „ø¤º°¨
    ¸„ø¤º°¨ P O S T “°º¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    thanks for the feed-back, embebed as in stuck, as for P3 or something else (as mentioned more than a year ago I'm more of a w5 of P3 fan)… I just presented the facts as I see them, expecting some feedback that might help clarify. btw I'm still fully short

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    point taken, but they can always make another QE2 and Ben can buy a bigger chopper

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    glad i was of help, and glader that i got it right 😉

  • raised_by_wolves

    LOL!

  • raised_by_wolves

    "SPX:GOLD still sliding the lower bb but trying to unhook...."

    ($SPX/GLD) is below BB(208,2.618) on the daily . . .

    http://content.screencast.com/users/raised_by_w

    The weekly has support from the BB(40,2.618) . . .

    http://content.screencast.com/users/raised_by_w

    The monthly has support from the BB(208,1.618) . . .

    http://content.screencast.com/users/raised_by_w

    The quarterly has broke the fuck down below MA(208) . . .

    http://content.screencast.com/users/raised_by_w

    However, the longer the time scale, the more the data is influenced by $SPX, not GLD since GLD has only been around since the end of 2004.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    i got it right, wave said as much on his answer 😉

  • raised_by_wolves

    Yes, you did get it right. You also got a laugh out of me. And I don't laugh very often.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    you don't? i'd guess you might smile little, but laugh a lot