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Come To Daddy

by The MoleNovember 9, 2015

We are now counting six consecutive higher highs on the weekly panel and although that is not a reason to dip into short positions I am starting to enjoy seeing the odds swinging back to the selling side. At least on a short term basis we are heading into a correction sometime this month. Timing our entries will be what separates the steel rats from the field mice.

2015-11-09_spoos

As of right now I’m seeing a juicy short opportunity on a little pop towards ~2091. If stopped out and Zero permitting I will long 1/2R after that and add 1/2R if we breach 2100.

2015-11-09_USDJPY_update

Before we get to the setups here’s a USD/JPY Update. You may have grabbed some longs there with me last week and it’s due time to take some partial profits. The remainder 1/2R I’m keeping in the run with a trailing stop near 123 – nice number.

2015-11-09_GBPUSD

Cable – I’m sweating a little bit on this one given the current sell off but I’m long here with a stop below 1.5. Let’s see if it sticks.

2015-11-09_ZB

Bonds – similar setup actually – interesting. I am the first to admit that there isn’t much of a support line here as we barely have three touches. 1/2R only.

More setups below the fold, please join me in the lair:

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About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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  • ridingwaves

    Buenos Dias senor Mole…good luck in your setups today….

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Taking any?

  • Ronebadger

    Short SPX from last week, I already “predicted” this … LOL 😉

  • Ronebadger
  • ridingwaves

    No, L VIX per last friday entry, L a couple spec bio plays

  • ridingwaves

    see above…

  • Bill

    Going long here until 2091 based on Zero.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    You’ve got to explain me that one…

  • Huey

    Really like the EURAUD long here. Weekly and daily support. Trend on weekly is up and just had an orderly pullback. Going to use Fridays hammer candle as my trigger and stop placement. Will start taking profits > 1.56. Still holding 25% of USDJPY long and 50% of EURCAD short from last week, trailing stops. Also short GBPCAD with stop at breakeven. Thanks Mole!

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    You are most welcome – glad you are banking some coin.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    You guys and your EFTs – hehe…

  • Ronebadger

    TICK positive for just a minute or two in first 45mins?

  • ridingwaves

    so far the plan is working perfect..

  • tradingmom

    going long here at spx 2078

  • RoastBeeph

    ZL sure isn’t very negative for how red today is. Also see the divergence on it, probably a good long here.

  • Ronebadger

    Wait for ittttttt……

  • mugabe

    lol, yes, EFTs

  • BobbyLow

    My “Pony” was working up a lather this moring so I gave it a little rest and took +1 R off the table. I’m letting the rest of it “ride” with a 30 minute closing stop above $44.92. 🙂

  • tradingmom

    there it is

  • Ronebadger

    ETFs = Poor Man’s Option/Future

  • BobbyLow

    Test. Where did everybody go?

  • mugabe

    what’s the question? 🙂

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I am here – where’s the rest I wonder.

  • BKXtoZERO

    no comfortable medium huh?

  • Billabong

    Wash, rinse, repeat … miners MOMO turning up … looking for follow-through.

  • randomuser6789

    How will you decide/know when to close this trade? What are your rules or what parameters do you use for your discretion. I asked someone else this recently. I am trying to learn this aspect of campaign management by picking yall’s brains when you are in a winning trade.

  • BobbyLow

    My rules regarding exit are pretty straight forward. Average True Range (ATR) is my most important part. TOS has a selection on my chart where I can adjust my ATR Multiples based on a 6 to 8 period average or whatever average I choose that makes the most amount of sense to me. (This is where back and forward testing comes into play) I then have this ATR Multiple automatically adjust to every candle as price moves and acts as a Trailing Stop. (It can only move forward not backward) Doing this also opens a back door into finding an approximate MFE.

    When a candle closes over/under the relative ATR of the Underlying in this case /CL (Short or Long), I’m out – win, lose or draw. I try to have the least amount of thought process as possible. The majority of Grunt Work has been done during back and forward testing. The only time I have to pucker a little is while I’m waiting for a candle to close before entering/closing a position. There are occasions when I will close my position before the candle closes but they are rare.

    Again, the most important part of this for me was to do the grunt work before hand. I’ve also been charting /CL for many years on many different time frames so there is a type of familiarity that comes along with this that is not as bad as some might think. 🙂

    I took partial profits this AM because the $43 area might offer support. The rest of my position now has a stop of a close above $44.77 on my 30 Minute Chart. The bottom line is that I don’t make the decision, price does.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Zero snapshot – the EOS buying happened with a flatlined signal. We may drop a bit further here…

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    oops – chart…

    .

  • Kevin Mcdonald

    is it wise to take long setups if the trend seems to be down? even if the zero gives the divergence signal like it did this morning?

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Are you referring to the session’s trend? Depends on the signal range. In the first two hours – absolutely no. During the lunch time divergence, sure – the signal was starting to swing toward the Zero mark. I strongly recommend you watch some of the wrap up videos which you find under the Zero menu ^^^

  • Scott Phillips

    The thing you are trying to do, place intraday discretionary trades on the emini – could be one of the most difficult things in trading. Difficult because you are taking a lot of trades, your mental state needs to be bang on every single day, your record keeping is complicated, etc.

    Even with the zero, this is the equivalent of having a few martial arts lessons and jumping in the UFC octagon. You are far better served adopting a systematic skill building approach to trading and building a system that suits your personality, and trading that until you can trade mistake free. If you then decide that intraday emini trading is for you – then go back and build a system around it.

    To my knowledge NONE of the regulars here using the zero have tightly designed systems around it. This leaves the door open for what humans are best at, which is “interpreting the evidence to leave our original conclusions intact”. Skynard used to do this all the time… he would take a counter trend view, and then seize on a divergence to justify a counter trend position which he was already biased towards. Even with the best of tools (and zero is a too like any other and categorically not a magic wand or crystal ball)

    Bottom line – what you are doing now is not going to make you a profitable trader 🙂

  • Scott Phillips

    In the same way that a lottery ticket is a poor man’s 401K 😉

    You get ripped off in trends with ETF’s, so your big winners aren’t as big. The holding costs are exaggerated so contango/backwardisation work against you. You have exaggerated gap risk due to market hours. These things sound small but over time they take substantial amounts of profits.

    The only way ETF’s are viable is for short term (intraday, 1-2 day max) trading.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I have people continuously using the Zero quite successfully for several years now. Of course you still need some kind of swing trading system – just placing trades via the Zero signal alone would be tough. However in combination with a proper entry system the Zero kicks ass – those divergences have paid in spades since 2008.

    FYI – I always wait for price confirmation – in my case that’s a spike low and a retest. I also use Net-Lines pretty heavily. If there is more additional technical context then even better.

  • mugabe

    think they’re OK for medium to long-term trend following of stock indices/bond indices as costs can be v low and gaps are less of a problem

  • kudra

    back in the day you called him good at what he does. i guess he proved to be a charlatan. jokes on me for following him into NG. f em.

  • Scott Phillips

    My point is that because of the great admiration for you, some people here pursue frankly dangerous trading because they are armed with the same tools you are.

    Specifically.

    Nobody keeps records of how often the divergences play out, and how often they don’t. That is straight up LAZY on the part of our community, and something which should be addressed in a crowdsourcing fashion. Put it this way, if Denali came here talking about his method with the same “I’ve been watching this indicator since 2009 and I know it works” I would chase him off the board. What is good for others has to be good for us, that is the sine qua non of keeping it real.

    I’ve personally traded with the zero, and found it extremely useful in conjunction with my existing systems for taking profit on trades or not going against divergences, also taking the first retrace in the direction of a divergence playing out. All three of these things are very different applications, and I have no records of how often they play out. Neither does anyone else. Half assed again, on my part when I was using it, on our community part right now.

    I’ve never seen the records of people successfully trading with the zero, nobody has ever kept them or posted them. Half assed again.

    My criticism is not of the zero, which is a fine tool. It is of EVILSPECULATOR PARTICIPANTS, who are trading in a manner we would objectively not regard as pro level, thinking that somehow a superior tool will save them.

    Nobody trading without a system will be profitable long term. With or without the zero, it’s really that simple. Tradingmom outlined briefly her setup a few days ago, why don’t others start doing the same, then as a group we get a google spreadsheet together, start collating statistics and doing the work properly.

  • Scott Phillips

    He IS good at what he does. He sure CAN pick a reversal. Better than me, anyway.

    Picking reversals is dumb as fuck, long term, its like picking up pennies in front of a steamroller. Skynard fell victim to classic stuff: Not continually working on his psychology (when prompted he would say “I used to have bad psychology, now I’ve made all those mistakes I’m awesome”); not keeping accurate records (when prompted he couldn’t produce any, which means he wasn’t keeping them); Becoming biased to market direction or enamoured with predictions. All these things together are a death sentence for a trader.

    Bottom line, to be a reversal catcher you have to be at the absolute top of your game, all the time. He slipped a bit, and turned into a trading fucktard (happens to us all, one bit of bad trading sets up a chain reaction of fucktardery)

    I’m sorry you followed him into a stupid trade, but you have to own your part. Why in fuck were you trying to catch a bottom in a 10 year downtrend? Because you wanted to be RIGHT, rather than make money! Why in fuck would you take Skynard’s low probability hail mary play instead of the higher prob setups Mole posts every day? Because you are a greedy fuck, you looked at that chart and saw nothing but blue sky if you could just catch a good entry. Why did you just follow some guy you never met off the internet into a trade with a life changing sum of money? Because you are a LAZY fuck as well as a greedy fuck, too lazy to do the work, too impatient to get it all now instead of in a year’s time when you have done the work yourself.

    You have a great opportunity to learn from this mistake and get down and dirty with the work necessary to transform yourself into a solid pro like others have here. Mole and I were talking voice this morning and his own formative experience with a horrific drawdown early in his career was transformative. It was for me (I spunked a million dollars), it was for Bobby.

    Time will tell if you have the heart and character to transform yourself, because make no mistake, transformation is necessary 🙂

  • Scott Phillips

    Actually you are correct, SPY and DIA are very close 🙂 I should clarify, its only for commodities they suck

  • Scott Phillips

    A breakout here, if it happens is a very nice trade IMO

  • ridingwaves

    Commodity ETF’s do suck…Vix related etf’s should be included in that category…..but I still play them…with much different stop routine.. You could get away with playing some vix instruments for 4-5 days but that is all based off the individual trading it. Momentum is almost caught up into candles on today’s vix….your vix play could be near…

  • Scott Phillips

    Well to be fair the VX futures suck just as badly 😉

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    We haven’t kept statistics as it is an indicator and I frankly do not want to delve into turning it into a trading system as I’m intimately familiar with doing that and there are huge implications. Look mate – I understand your personal quest for excellence but what you are saying, although very valid, is in the domain of the respective trader. I cannot possibly manage that part – if people want to use the Zero as part of a system. Well, the comment section here should be leveraged for exchanging rules and other system specifics – excellent.

    What I am offering as a service however is only the indicator feed. A lot of people here have been subbed to it for more than five years. And they are using it very effectively in the context of their own trading activities. I can’t recall how many emails/comments I received along the lines of ‘the Zero saved my ass today’. What is most crucial about the Zero is that it shows you participation – which is a factor that is difficult to integrate into a trading system. If I see the Zero go flat like a flounder after a big sell off I just KNOW that a reversal is coming and 80% of the time it does – most people who have used it here can attest to that fact.

    Does it thus provide me with a long entry signal or does it tell me when exactly to drop my short positions? No – of course not – that is your job as a trader. I encourage you to watch the videos – they show countless examples of how the Zero shines.

  • evilasevildoes

    Always wait for price confirmation ALWAYS

  • evilasevildoes

    fell asleep