Crude Awakening 2012

I have rarely seen such a boring start of the year and until we see a decisive move there’s really not much to talk about on the equities side. The tape shows characteristics of very limited momentum/participation and that in itself is unusual for early January. Hey, don’t complain to me – I don’t make the tape, I just report it. Whatever you do – treat carefully.

Meanwhile let’s direct your stretched attention span to crude which has finally reached its short term target potential. We may push a bit higher but the easy money is over for a little while. At least on the short term side – long term the picture looks a bit different:
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Seems to me crude still has long term potential to push into 110 (per the weekly) and perhaps even into 120. If we get there I’d love to be short once we see signs of a topping process. Hey Iran – how about a bit more saber rattling on your end? Threatening to close the Strait Of Hormuz is a good start – but why stop there? The financial MSM is not doing their part either – I am only seeing a scare report on Iran’s intent on starting WW3 every hour or so. How’s an evil speculator supposed to make a living? Besides, I really do not pay enough at the pump just yet – $3.75/gallon in Los Angeles is for pikers, I’m sure folks are looking forward to being squeezed a bit more toward summer.

Anyway, in the meantime it’s permissible to think about a short position here but don’t overstay your welcome – watch the hourly panel and be out if it runs into anything resembling support (i.e. NLSL, moving average, bollinger, etc.). As I said on a medium to long term basis this beast is probably going to push a bit higher.
[/amprotect] Cheers,