End Of The Road?

A slowing of the trend in the S&P 500 over the past few sessions has evolved into a more pronounced sell off overnight, and by the time you read this my ongoing E-Mini long campaign may have already met its maker. And that would be perfectly fine as we’ve been riding this rally way beyond expectation. And I mean that in a strictly technical sense and not an emotional one. A 3R or 4R winner is considered a very good run these days, especially given the increase in intra-day volatility over the past few years. More than double that should always be considered the rare exception, rather than the norm. That fact of course does little to prevent most retail participants from expecting to hit it out of the park with every single campaign.

Now if that reflects your general mindset then you may be better off in Vegas or Macau. At least there you get to enjoy scantily clad girls and cheap drinks while the house systematically separates you from your savings account. Which incidentally is why I always was surprised about the success of online gambling. Who wants to lose money sitting at home with your spouse breathing down your neck? If you are determined to gamble away your money, at least have the dignity to do it in style.

Now it’s Friday and I decided that we’re going to mix things up a little. I’m going to update you on our ongoing campaigns but will also throw in some longer term trend perspectives. The E-Mini as I said may be touching our current trailing stop near ES 2348. It’s been a run to remember and if only half of our campaigns would turn out this way none of us would still be here looking at charts. Except the Gold Gerb of course – he’s an addict.

The P&F actually shows us near what once was a pretty outlandish looking bullish price objective of 2370. I actually posted that one a few months ago and I remember suggesting that we probably wouldn’t get there in one run and that we may touch it near summer. Well, so much for lofty predictions.

Whereas the trend in equities seems to be nearing its end gold may just getting warmed up. We got extremely lucky here when we entered Wednesday and it’s now time to advance our stop a little – I suggest that you keep it a respectful distance away until we see more context (i.e. a spike low or a continued run higher).

The daily panel incidentally could not look any more promising if it tried. After the breach of the NLBL at 1245.1 here’s nothing but air above us and if gold can maintain its mojo we may be able to ride this all the way into 1300.

The P&F panel however shows us a more humble PO at 1275 – in which case I wouldn’t be one to complain either. For now we’re positioned well and the rest is up the market.

I actually had split one R between gold and silver and fortunately the latter appears to be following the former’s example. I do however see a potential hurdle here near 17.73. If it can bust through that and continue higher then the odds of a medium term trend rally would increase markedly. But we’re probably at least a week away from getting there. For now let’s trail this one and wait for further instructions.

Cable actually gave us several entry opportunities over the past week and it seems that our patience may now be rewarded. The current stab higher grants us an advance of our ISL to a trail at < 1.246. As you can see the 100-day BB has been compressed and even more so the 25-day BB. Which means this one is coiled up pretty good  and a big move could be on the horizon. Hopefully it’ll resolve in our direction 😉

Crude has been a bitch on heels lately – shown above are the daily and weekly panels. IMO nothing good is going to happen here between 52 and 55. As a matter of fact the 52 mark is probably our best bet for a long entry as that is where daily and weekly context are forming an important inflection point.

The WTIC point and figure seems to agree, except here the 50 mark seems to delineate a support line which ought to not be broken. If crude can some day get out of the gate a run to 72 is in the cards. As always the trick here is to get a seat on the bus. Crude can be tough to catch as it has a tendency to wear out traders just ahead of a big move. A quality it shares with precious metals as I’ve pointed out on several occasions.

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