Everyone Hates Bonds

Everyone is bearish bonds right now and who could blame them. They’re old fashioned, printed in b&w, politically incorrect, a bit icky, and even slightly racist, which is the real reason why they keep losing value on a daily basis. Heck I went to the farmer’s market this morning and apparently the vendors are starting to wrap their fish and meat in old U.S. bonds as opposed to newspapers. “Screw bonds, they’re worthless” said the man before he tossed a package of wrapped fish in my hands. “It’s either that or burn them” he added.

Awestruck about finding such financial acumen at a fish market I quickly checked whether or not he had spit on the package before handing it to me.  Okay not really, it’s all lies, but I think you get the point – everyone hates bonds right now. And when I see the MSM harping on about bonds in free fall then it’s usually time too look for long entry opportunities.

Let me paint the picture for you on the medium to long term basis. The weekly panel on the ZB is now starting to look interesting as price has descended to a medium to long term support cluster near 141’20. Why that number and not 140 or 141 I frankly don’t know. GG does, but he’s not telling me.

Now what I do know however is that the 100-hr BB is starting to squeeze with price now advancing > the 100-hr SMA after a series of promising looking higher lows and higher highs. Which is why I am grabbing a long position with a stop < 141’27 – if you’re more conservative put it < 141’20.

Our E-Mini campaign continues as planned but I wouldn’t be surprised if we’d see a retest of the 100-hour SMA sometime today. My trail remains a little bit below that near 2655.

In case you’re wondering but the bear is far from dead and this may just be another rip higher before the next shoe drops. The inability of the bulls to take out 2718 came at a price, and thus far the toll has been surprisingly, almost suspiciously, cheap.

The Dollar campaign is starting to bank hefty profits at this point as I just advanced my trail to the 5.5R mark with more than one R already above us. That puppy was coiled up to the max a week ago and was bound to produce a big move in the near future. Glad we were able to hop on board here.

All that Dollar bullishness however has pushed various crosses toward support clusters, in particular the AUD/USD which is now approaching its lower 100-day Bollinger.

A long play right now right here would be a wee bit premature but this one is definitely on the radar for next week. What I would love to see is a juicy spike low with the 100-hour BB squeezing even tighter. A hop > the 100-hour would get me into a long position.

Alright I guess I’ve inflicted enough damage for this week. Enjoy your weekend 🙂

Cheers!