Education
Now Reading
Evil Santa
262

Evil Santa

by The MoleDecember 20, 2018

Let’s face it, we have all been very very naughty over the past decade. And it was great fun while the easy money lasted but those days are over now and alas it is time to adjust our trading accordingly.

Clearly Santa is in a very foul mood this year and he’s not taking any prisoners, as a matter of fact he and his intrepid elves are working overtime to dish out some mighty comeuppance to any bag or purse holders.

I was preparing a video tutorial on market types yesterday (to be released next year) and this chart actually does a good job of showing us what is going on.

Take a peek at the three the three indicators below. I wrote them a few years ago scheming evil deeds with Scott and they are based on market type classification concepts as taught by Ken Long.

The SlopeStat and StretchStat indicators show us the direction of the medium term trend, and the VolStat, as you probably guessed it, shows us realized volatility. And all three horsemen are pointing toward a high volatility bear market in the making.

Which incidentally is the most difficult market of all to trade. Take this from someone who has done it and lived to tell the story. So sign up for a monthly Gold sub right now to ensure you’re staying ahead of the tape during what’s heading for us. Plus you’ll finally stop feeling so guilty for freeloading so long here at Evil Speculator 😉

I’m not kidding by the way. The Fed made it very clear that the Powell put is kaputt, and that the Fed is dead serious about abandoning the easy money policy it has been engaged in over the better part of the past decade.

Sorry guys, those days ain’t coming back, so we need to adjust to our new reality.

Tenets For Bear Market Survival

What that means for us are several things. One, obviously markets are going to crap the bed here and even if we’re seeing a bounce in the near future I expect high volatility conditions to reverberate for the coming weeks and months.

Two, we will have to adjust our trading activities accordingly. Even back in 2008, the fabled glory days of the bears, trading stocks was a royal pain in the ass. If you do then focus on the handful of stalwart leaders and buy them at medium term or long term support levels (a few examples below the fold).

If you insist on trading short equities then find hapless victims that already looked weak during the roll over period and then STFR (sell the f..ing rip). On that end I greatly prefer sector ETPs, e.g. tech and financial stocks and ETPs should be of great utility for the consummate short stock slayer.

Three, we need to start inoculating us against perma-bearish bias and only trade the tape in front of us. Believe me, everyone I bothered to listen to back in 2008 was dead wrong. I don’t expect them to be right this time either.

Four, we need to start looking for easier markets, as lame as this may sound. Instead of trying to guess where the stock market may head next, we should be looking for sideways MR or low volatility bull markets in other sectors.

A strategy that usually does well during economic turmoil is trend or momentum trading of futures and related ETPs. Which is what your average CTA or managed futures shop will be doing. Most of them are currently in drawdown for 2018, which usually a good time to invest or to follow them. Dunn, AHL, Aspect, QIM …they all do the same with different levels of volatility.

Five, and this ESPECIALLy holds true for bear markets, completely ignore the news. The less news consumption the better as it’ll completely fuck with your brain and lead you into committing trading mistakes.

Remind yourself that the majority of the people who write this crap are paid to do it and probably know less about trading than you do.

And six, trading bear markets is a high-stress-no-prisoners-taken-zero-margin-for-errors-activity. For that reason alone all tenets which usually apply should be followed even more closely. As a refresher I point you to a seminal post on this very topic I wrote almost exactly a year ago.

And seven, subscribe to Evil Speculator. Sorry for being a pushy mofo today but this place frankly doesn’t pay for itself and you think it was tough to keep you guys in the clear this year then I’ll probably be working overtime in 2019. So if you’re on the fence then ask yourself if you’re better off with or without Evil Speculator.

Alright, I’m starting to run behind as I still have a bunch of charts to share. Meet me in the lair:

evil_separator

It's not too late - learn how to consistently trade without worrying about the news, the clickbait, the daily drama and misinformation. If you are interested in becoming a subscriber then don't waste time and sign up here. The Zero indicator service also offers access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.

Please login or subscribe here to see the remainder of this post.


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
Enjoyed this post? Consider a small donation to keep those evil deeds coming!

BTC: 1MwMJifeBU3YziDoLLu8S54Vg4cbnJxvpL
BCH: qqxflhnr0jcfj4nejw75klmpcsfsp68exukcr0a29e
ETH: 0x9D0824b9553346df7EFB6B76DBAd1E2763bE6Ef1
LTC: LUuoD6sDWgbqSgnpo5hceYPnTD9MAvxi6c

  • Jason13

    2476 hit on futures last night. Usually there’s a re-visit to overnight lows when bell goes in this situation so could be a good setup for a nibble long.

  • Jason13

    I’m liking oil for a brief pre-Xmas bump as well. Another nibble for me. 45.50 area is a longer term fib support for those who care about that EW thing of which we do not talk about.

  • maxcherry

    there is hope, of the 10 worst Dec’s through dec 19th, and 2018 is the worst, down -9.17% 9 ended positive dec 19th through year end, 2002 was the lone down -0.50%

    avg gain 1.56%
    avg high 2.64%

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho
  • TimeToPanic

    Interesting, thanks.
    I’m still long, under water, but still expecting a cycle high just after Christmas. Not much BTFD going on so far, useless bulls.

  • Mark Shinnick

    As a interesting equity, I can suggest nok

  • Mark Shinnick

    There is so much manic delusion/cult-following wrapped-up into this company…one of those you just gotta wonder just how reality eventually bites it.

  • ridingwaves

    ruh oh….never seen the spread triple bottom breakdown..I’m young though….
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/d1d00d58c187473a8c4f1633a8b313a185e251cdacf6e8408dcc76c5c9c7abbd.png

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yeah, multi-generational memory needed. Damm interesting chart.
    Another damm interesting scene is LABU, for 6 months operating at 115 level, now at 31.

  • ridingwaves

    the weekly more ominous, pointing towards 2050….
    I’ve been following Mole’s plan, NG the red headed step sister, with oil down here, t NG needs to stay elevated or a lot of shale production and companies are kaput….

  • Mark Shinnick

    With Monergy and confidence contracting…most ships affected. This is pushing on a string with no real % rate ammo incentive remaining. We’ve arrived and the dawning is upon us.

  • ridingwaves

    yep, I was slow to recognize but positioned for defense now…
    whats nuts is the price objective in last 30 minutes for chart above just dropped another 100pts

  • Mark Shinnick
  • ridingwaves

    damn scary, do feel RUT is moving into short term buy area here and SPX needs to close gap 2460s and we get a good bounce…

  • Mark Shinnick

    This environment…..like all the swirling mixed-up stuff after a big one in surf zone.

  • ridingwaves

    good analogy

  • Darkthirty

    I partied with that guy, rode with American Breed

  • Sp00nman

    Wow Sir Mole, that Santa image sure is demented! I gotta hand it to you! 😀

    High yield debt lower again today, not good. Fedex reported the other day and noted a global slow down in shipments, so there’s definitely a whole lot less for the bulls to hang their hat on these days.

  • Jay Thomas

    All month I have been watching bullish comments here banking on historicity. “Last time…” “Most years…” Historical stats are effectively a gentle wind pushing a certain direction. One problem with relying on historicals is that the data can be sliced a billion different ways – by calendar, by Fed decisions, by earnings, consumer action, geopolitical winds, etc.
    My trading performance has been lackluster most of this year because I let my eyes wander, but I did not buy into the baseless hype of the Santa season and have made back my earlier losses. I have kept my eyes on price, momentum, and volatility through this season and that is what has worked.
    edit: I am not looking for congratulations or ego stroking. I intend this as a friendly warning. Keep your eyes on your system.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Things are going insane….blood is running.

  • https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLEx52bnnbLmh2dnV_Vyq1ErXT79LSU6pT xenoson

    We are breaking 2018 balance into opex leaving high volume zone and max pain behind (they are magnets into opex usually). Down the 2017 flag pole. Don’t try to pick a longer term bottom, this will take a while.

  • Darkthirty

    Do SPY and ES track on minute charts?

  • Sp00nman

    Can you elaborate what you’re looking at Mark?

  • Mark Shinnick

    I find the 3x instruments to be leaders, reflecting true real time market sentiment and tending to show the future of the larger indexes. Look at labu, for example.

  • Sp00nman

    Thanks!

  • ridingwaves

    max pain is a myth….
    no worries, bounce is near….a panic flash move down and lots of cheap PE symbols to shop….2460’s

    ridingwaves 7 days ago
    The RUT is pointing towards 1353, overthrow to 1322…via special plasma personal lens supplied by Doc and Spock….

  • BKXtoZERO

    Long more UWT 9.33. but for day only. I chose to buy/hold and build a position which now I regret as usual….. becoming an investor didn’t work out for me on Silver either but I was quicker to cut. I am down on 4R worth of UWT at avg of 12 on previous 4 entries

  • https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLEx52bnnbLmh2dnV_Vyq1ErXT79LSU6pT xenoson

    Away from max pain means big boys are hedging their sold puts (basically mole’s vixen strategy). Magnet is not a myth, its the definition of balance.

  • ridingwaves

    i understand the magnet and balance but max pain is thrown out a lot around this time of month and yet rarely takes place….

  • BKXtoZERO

    LABU…. wow…. I should have held my DRV

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    2482 did not hold Next level 2452
    JULIE

  • http://www.linkedin.com/in/sharondsessions/ Sharon

    Closed my Roth IRA SPY PUTS at a profit.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Well, that drv might be a 401 type trade….it might be the big sleeper in all this.

  • Sp00nman

    LVNs at 66 and 20. Looks like we’re getting a small bounce off 66, we’ll see if it holds.

  • ridingwaves

    gap closed on spx, went long

  • maxcherry

    from what I’ve seen, the market tends to move away from max pain, if its above going into exp, it rallies , sells off if its below , once in a while, usually in a flat market you see the move to max pain

  • Mark Shinnick

    near term volatility resistance in here…

  • Mark Shinnick

    Blood when wet still very slippery.

  • maxcherry
  • ridingwaves

    i like that one….and damn bloody too….
    but its the plan…so I’m sticking my bullish neck out….let the chopping commence

    ridingwaves Julie 35 – 25 – 36 2 days ago
    XBI pointing towards 71.30, oil down, Jasons area 2478 is going to get hit by looks of it, 2464 area overthrow….

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yeah, a much better performing, more-scary slope too.

  • Ted
  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Seriously? I have been posting bearish momo updates for several months now!

  • Mark Shinnick

    ….maybe Santa is pulling out the sled…dude waited to buy at better prices?

  • Sp00nman

    I joined you.. HYG bouncing a bit too.. target vwap.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Not a single comment reg. this post? There are several important strategic points I was hoping would engender more of a response. If you guys are planning on doing the same thing you’ve been doing over the past few years then think again. Tough times ahead.

  • ridingwaves

    I followed #3 just now Master Mole…but I’m nuts

  • BKXtoZERO

    I thought it was a great post Mole. Most mornings I have to get ready for work and read the ones that are more in depth at night.

  • TimeToPanic

    I’m new here, but I get the feeling those that comment here are a canny bunch and seem aware the tide has turned.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Seems like a bunch just covered shorts or went long…you know? Check out nok.

  • https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLEx52bnnbLmh2dnV_Vyq1ErXT79LSU6pT xenoson

    I don’t remember the futures contracts to expire in full trend mode to the downside. Usually this happens within shorter term balance zones. And this market was in balance on the bigger picture two weeks ago with yearly VPOC in reach. Even 2008’s Sept and Dec burned a lot of puts. I’m curious what happens tomorrow, but up until now this is really odd behaviour.

  • Ted

    Completely agree. Looks like 2007-08 all over again except not just a housing bubble it’s the everything bubble. It scares the crap out of me. Once we get a bounce I’m out of my long and won’t reconsider until 666.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I really hope so, most people have no idea how brutal bear markets are. I was one of them back in 2008.

  • TimeToPanic

    It won’t be as deep as 08/09, as the bond bubble will start to burst within a year, capital will get the hell out of USTs, gilts etc and back in to equities. Gold will be the big winner.

    Going to be a fascinating couple of years.

  • TimeToPanic

    You’ve sounded the warning bell chief, not much more you can do.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Yes, this time we may actually head straight into a recession. Remember that the market usually leads the economy.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Okay, as long as everyone gets the message I’m happy. We’ll take it day by day.

  • BKXtoZERO

    off to work… UWT stop in at 9.3, looks like another weak bounce to set up more selling to 45 CL… then I “would like” is that hoping? to see a move to50.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SP $BKX showing some sign of live today But $SOX is not. They must move together
    JULIE

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I dunno mate. WHERE is capital going to go if EVERYTHING is dropping? Not the Euro, that’s for sure – they are heading into a populist surge next spring when the European elections are scheduled. Europe is a mess, China is hurting, Brazil may be an option as they just elected someone who hopefully won’t bankrupt the country.

    Commodities may be an AMAZING deal going forward. If we get crude as low as 40 (which is close to production value if with sweet crude) then it could turn into a very profitable LT campaign. Assuming you properly roll contracts or use a pertinent ETP. Otherwise commodities over the next year or so are going to be great trend trading candidates.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Chief usually by 6 – 9 months. Employment is a lagging indicator. Prudent to follow the Rails as usually the last shoe to drop in a business cycle.fore warning of a downturn The rails are dumping now
    JULIE

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Wow, equities can’t find a bid… LHs and LLs.

  • evilasevildoes

    Greatest POST EVER!

  • Sp00nman

    Great post Sir Mole. I like the gameplan. I try to not focus too much on the “WHY” (like dollar going down), but I think we all try to rationalize certain moves. I’m glad I’m still holding my gold, and we’re banging against the rising channel.

    I’m honestly not sure how I should “trade” this bear market. I was around in 2008 but relatively new to trading and didn’t do much. My “plan” would be to wait for a bounce, and short a few ES contracts and just sit on them, but the nasty bear market bounces are painful to sit through at times.. That or short stocks specifically like you pointed out.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Thanks for the chart Chief. My husband has the same chart in his notes.Bear rules apply as stated in your post today. Thanks for the post Chief Not un noticed by me Chief
    JULIE

  • TimeToPanic

    Even Marty Armstrong said recently these next few years are going to be crazy.

    My view…Europe first, banks busting and sovs. Everyone crowds into US assets. Then strong USD takes US into recession.

    The ace in the hole, trust me in this, is the demise of the XAUUSD paper gold market.

    Stick physical gold at 5k to 10k and the world is recapitalised.

    They did the same via gold in the 30s and the late 70s. It’s the only asset that can do it. China will boom, India too, the Middle East, even America will get some benefit.

    I could go on, the cycle into 2032 will be like the 70s on steroids.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Thanks for being a sub 😉

  • Sp00nman

    Eh, I’m out. Keeping my stops tight, booked a whopping 1 handle. :p The trade was shorting the 50% retrace of today’s move down..

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I don’t really follow Armstrong as he’s a smart guy but like most of them WAY ahead of the curve – he’s not a trader. You can really get burned listening to these types as they often end up being right in theory but not in practice. I wonder how many people were losing their asses buying for example precious metals over the past few years, only to get taken to the woodshed repeatedly.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    LHs and LLs definition of a bear market. Hilarious the Gurus stating it needs to be a 20% drop for a Bear Market. By then fortunes have been lost ! Like you I follow the tape not the Wall Street BS
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Lilith sends her regards.
    😉
    Off to Lunch!

  • Ted

    It buys the Yen as well.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Paper golf market – now that’s a new one! 😉

    Not sure I agree with China booming though. WHO are they going to sell their products to when the U.S. is in a recession AND is fighting a tariff war at the same time? Japan? Russia? India? I don’t think so.

    Germany is going to find itself in a similar boat, which is why they were extremely stupid to pick a fight with the U.S. economically. I think it’s a bit like being in a long term relationship. After decades of dumping products into the U.S. they somehow started to take us for granted. Which is going to burn them BIG time in the coming years.

    As an exporting nation, you simply don’t fuck with the #1 importer in the world, it’s very simple. The U.S. is going to face a lot of pain in the next year or two but I think it’s going to come out as the winner at the end.

  • TimeToPanic

    Thing is, if you’ve bought gold (no other metal) and have it privately vaulted, not as a trade, but as a long-term holding, the past 5 years have been a gift, a chance to buy cheap, before the revaluation. Short term price movements have been irrelevant. None of that is Armstrong btw, my own thesis, plus a few others I know.

    Gold is still going cheap, get some at home, or in a non-bank vault. You’ll be glad you did after Spring 2021.

  • Sp00nman

    Yep, the dollar is far from perfect but it’s the least ugly option. :p

    China is what really makes me wonder about the next downturn. They’ve had a meteoric rise over the last couple decades with no pullback. They’ve built empty cities to keep the ball rolling.. If things slow down, I wonder how they can keep things together, or more likely they will have a very large negative impact on the world.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    But you would have lost money TTP, not what I consider a great buy strategy. It’s really strange how everyone always turns off the trader part of their brains when it comes to precious metals. For me a great buy is near the bottom, not on the way down.

  • TimeToPanic

    My average cost is c. £1,000 per ounce, I’m at about breakeven.

    It’s not a trade, it’s effectively my retirement fund. I’m the same sort of age as you. Put a zero on my gold holdings, I’ll be sorted for life.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Slishy-sloshy bloody Santa dude.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Without the U.S. buying its products China would still be nothing but a communist backwater. They’ve come a long way and they have done a lot right and a lot wrong. What they DO have however is an intelligent hard working populace. Long term they should be okay.

  • TimeToPanic

    The US sadly faces an insurmountable problem. It has twin budget and trade deficits. It’s been living beyond its means since the 70s.

    The plug has already been pulled, we’re just going to watch the water drain away over the next 14 years.

    China will be fine, its citizens all have gold, they’ll have a windfall.

    Sadly, it’s all part of a plan to take out the US, the last great Christian nation on the planet. The financiers have stripped the carcas bare, purest of evil, whilst turning God’s natural order on its head. The denouement will be in the 2040s, let’s just say it’ll be of Biblical proportions. I like Morocco as a bolthole.

  • Sp00nman

    Yep for sure.. Long long term they’re fine, MAYBE better off than the US, but a slowdown by all the top world economies means we could have some very hard times ahead. To comment on TTP’s point, I don’t think we’ll see 666 again on the spx, but I don’t see why we couldn’t see a similar % drawdown. We also have a $1T budget deficit these days starting a recession and rates are historically super low.. *facepalm*

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    And we’ll be still here long after they all have been wiped out.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I really don’t think so. Citizens don’t all have gold. Only the rich do and there are millions of them since it’s a country of 1 Billion.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Oh shut up – LOL

  • mSquare

    India may be worth a look for your risky fleeing capital.

    Projections for faster growth rate than China or most other big countries. The lower Oil helps India a lot as it is more than half of their trade deficits. Lately, the govt. just managed to get current Fed-Chief-equivalent to resign in favor of supposedly a more dovish one and thus 2019 has hopes of dovish ‘buy-the-votes’ extra govt. spending too.

    Of course when everyone is down they will be too, but likely better prospects (fundamentally).

    Look at ETFs PIN/EPI or better, some good active funds

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    The crap that Wall Street spews “You gotta be diversified ” WTF Everything goes down in a Bear Market. My favorite is “Dollar cost averaging” …. That is attempting to catch a falling knife. They have come out with this BS so they can sell into the people that buy their crap . Distribution to the uninformed is Wall Streets game in a Bear Market
    JULIE

  • TimeToPanic

    India and China have 5,000 years of seeing currency collapses, so gold is culturally engrained. The Chinese govt have been actively encouraging people to buy. India, everyone saves in gold. Jewellery and coins. The West are the nouveaux riche, this will be the first major wave of currency collapses for hundreds of years, hence gold is the dead forgotten asset.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Chief IMO India a democracy will beat out China in the long run.China must become a democracy
    JULIE

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    feels like this down move may soon be finished – as in temporarily – but a possible tradeable rally..ahead

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    catracho I thought there would be a rally approx 2482 target posted Now looking at 2452 but could be any time. SPX has come down to the weekly 144 ema and I have some indicators showing a rally could commence any time
    JULIE

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    LOL – diversification has not worked AT ALL this year and won’t work if everything but a few niches is losing value. Fucking idiots. But those are the high paid suits who they trot out every day to placate the masses.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Feelings?

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • Sp00nman

    If there’s one thing I’ve learned
    over the years, it’s that the banks are the gatekeepers. Any challenge
    to the establishment gets smacked down (gold somewhat, but bitcoin is a
    perfect example). With currencies they hold the cards and control things, but with PMs or other forms of “money” they don’t.

    With that said, it’s an interesting theory regarding inflation to “recapitalize” the financial system. Will it happen? Hard to say, but after ’08 and watching TARP, Fed backstops of the banking system, 0% rates, QE, etc.. I will never cease to be surprised. That would seem like the last “lever” to pull. Will it happen this time around? I dono.. Interesting thought though.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Chief What is amazing too .. A new Bull Market always has different leaders than the previous Bull Market. It will not be the FANG stocks or Bio Pharma but a different sector entirely. The new sector as noted the leadership will be and new market darlings will be the sector that lost the least % in the Bearl and the best within that sector. People will still continue to buy the FANG and Bio Pharma and they will completely under perform in a new Bull Market
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Please refresh above post
    JULIEv

  • Sp00nman

    I met with a financial advisor for a good free dinner the other week, and it was the same old “gotta stay invested.” I can’t blame them because that’s what’s worked for them till now. I usually just keep my mouth shut and don’t say much as I know better.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    My response would have been: okay, so… what’s for desert?

  • Darkthirty
  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    FANG is going to get killed as retail will not be able to buy a fucking $1500 iphone or Samsung on bloody credit. Honestly now I am actually getting a bit excited about talking this. Perhaps going on vacation will be fun once again as the bloody waiters will spit in my soup a lot less.

  • Sp00nman

    Haha.. ya we had dessert. The guy was nice, but it’s like pavlov’s dog salivating when the bell rings. BTD. They’ve made money doing that so will continue to do so. For the average joe who doesn’t know any better I feel bad for them a little, but ah well..

  • evilasevildoes

    yep

    they are scum

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    It’s up to $5.5M already? Long way to go to $1B though…

  • evilasevildoes

    I met with one trying to get me to snooker lil ole ladies for his ‘new index;’ ugg

  • evilasevildoes

    Mason mannwquins

  • ridingwaves

    speaking of – 20% move in BTC off bottom

  • Darkthirty

    Not bad for 3 days….not many people have seen it yet, either…

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    A preview of my next post. How I survived the last bear market:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1by0-nkKOTs

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    I have the same chart Chief with the VWAP Thanks Chief
    JULIE

  • ridingwaves

    Trump not signing the bill, this might be good in a weird way….not for equities…

    its the end of the world
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z0GFRcFm-aY

  • http://www.linkedin.com/in/sharondsessions/ Sharon

    who is this Bryan? I have read about some people helping homeless people and then taking the funds for themselves?

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX Falling wedge forming from 2585 with two rising fan lines Also developing positive divergences 60 min chart and 10 min charts
    JULIE

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho
  • ridingwaves

    if news doesn’t matter…perfect storms in news does….

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX Now at 2452 target if broken next target 2434
    JULIE

  • TimeToPanic

    666.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    TTP … 666.6666666666
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    put. the calculator….DOWN.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hey GG You are supposed to be on vacation ! LOL! I knew you would show up !
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    it’s just so damned hard.
    I’ve been doing this for what? 8 years, daily!?

    Guess the bottom of this fall? Winner gets a set of knives.
    https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/FI-BSy0ISLgmGWFjeQJG3cjmIGk=/0x0:2876×1218/1200×0/filters:focal(0x0:2876×1218):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/8936867/1_H-zCyVjnjOdWr7-eDIaPqg.0.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG It’s in my blood too !
    JULIE

  • Darkthirty

    That was a scam front to back, they all got busted

  • Sp00nman

    I dono.. maybe 1300ish?? 😀

  • ridingwaves

    I’m chipping in….Trump is making good decision to shut the govt. down, the cartel is flying ultralights and drones dumping drugs, illegals and anything else over our borders now….time to lock it down….people have been and are going to get hurt because of open border insanity

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    If Jerome Powell has any guts … FED opt out of the PPT. Time for a free market without intervention from the PPT. PPT buying the futures .. Stop the PPT now… A free market will heal itself … In the long run a market without intervention will be a better market … A true Market ! My two cents
    JULIE

  • ridingwaves

    are you not getting enough sun?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hi RW … LOL!
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    LOL! GG
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    not enough AIR, would be the reply to RW.
    😉

  • ridingwaves

    could anyone plan opex, fed announcement, budget border shutdown and penny marshall dying all at same time…..

  • evilasevildoes

    2424.66

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    No. and that explains why we are either in the Matrix…OR….it’s something to do with Uranus.

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    Yes well that’s the same with QE – trying to maintain an economy with no down turns – i.e low interest rates for ever – will end badly – companies that should go bust stay alive, compete with well run competitors, drive prices down and then they all lose.. Banks should have never been bailed out – the West has become more socialist in that respect- while maintaining the worst aspects of capitalism..

  • Ted

    That is heavenly! The scenery of course.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    I have another target closely matching yours @ 2422 ..below 2422 is 2415 A MAJOR one at 2404
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    We keep it classy here on EvilSpec.
    😉

  • ridingwaves

    my anus is ok according to colorguard test, so I;m going red pill, hint…it has CBC’s in it

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Excellent post catracho
    JULIE

  • ridingwaves

    yes this is all true, but that is old news, were not socialists, were a corpocracy……

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    Full moon Saturday – could be a low around this weekend.
    Moon aside – today’s action looks like some panic – so could follow through to Friday – but now sellers at this level? https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/b7f4fff16c4ed0186700f5cb9c85110f2cc680c91fee92912c30058b4b6c19fe.png
    close to 38 % retrace of 2016 rally
    A little lower also is 23 % retrace of 2008 rally
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/82da3ad7a56f5e14f519fa1222eaa266910363eb751f564e80ad5c001a44a0f8.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Sp00nman

    Yep, the “best” course would’ve been to take that $700B that TARP cost and start a new govt bank. Let the banks fail and pick their carcasses clean, then IPO the bank after a number of years and make it a public company.

    The number of times retards would say “TARP was paid back with interest” as if they did the government a favor! Made my head explode.. morons.

  • BKXtoZERO

    RW…… How is your skin condition? Are you getting better?

  • Darkthirty

    And shut down .gov. If this is necessary to get basic security, we sure don’t need congress critters.

  • Sp00nman

    Catracho, I don’t think they’re trying to prevent any downturns, just making sure they don’t spiral out of control. The real “problem” is our economic and financial system are mathematically dependent on “growth.” Ponzi systems really. No “growth,” and deflation can result in deflationary spirals. Like anything leveraged, you end up losing MORE than your initial capital, which is a big problem.

  • Ronebadger

    Keep checking the VIX BBs for clues. Here’s something interesting…the Weekly VIX with BBs https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/aef20c69065de470920947799e909b2bac2d266657484e070d1eedd7ddf56a19.png

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    yes but a capitalist system is growth then survival of the fittest companies, new companies replacing old, it’s the natural cycle of renewal and death; until it’s interfered with; interference is what communist regimes did- which is why China is such a threat (to the US) as they have adapted capitalism with socialist welfare state

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    I know i look at the DOW – just cos it’s a “headline” index..
    Targets above 23300, 23800 (above this and nature of the market changes)
    Down side still unfulfilled target at 22300
    Covered 80% shorts and looking to re-short at a round those levels

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/75e0e914e65993bb4d9006cbbda1848de37312c7459d13b63352e0057b0f0a4e.png

  • Sp00nman

    Ya for sure, but we’re a corpocracy as RW said, we’re obviously not capitalist.

    The reason why we need QE and low rates/monkeying w/ the economy as you call it is to kick the can/keep the deflationary spiral from occurring. We have fiscal problems (huge deficits) that are perhaps the heart of the problem. Banks want to keep banks in business, which is why QE, monkeying, etc. occurs.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Some of what Mole is really getting at is a denial phenomena…which so long as it exists, will simply preserve the local trend devastating to true believers.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Taking a stab long … Nibble i.e. small position
    JULIE

  • ridingwaves

    I was preaching for12 federally ran banks to handle swaps, deposits, loans etc and shutting down the big pigmen lairs, zombie banks etc. back in 07…..

    the nations financial well being would be much better off now

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I’m down $170.
    The pain, for my arrogance.
    be careful.

  • ridingwaves

    5 billion is nothing, were spending 100 billion on a bullet train to nowhere in california…Go to Mexico, wave an american flag, ask for benefits, voting, residence and not have a visa or passport…….

    enjoy your prison buddy…..that is where you will be…

  • Ted

    A par today would be nice to stop the bleeding. TPC will know what I mean.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG I bot the 61.8% retracement
    JULIE

  • Jason13

    Good aft…missing the action. Quick look at zero and it seems VWAP is a battle between buyers and sellers

  • ridingwaves

    I’m in TNA and FAS
    2014 and 2016 entry levels….

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yeah, I’m labu….nuwbe positioned :/

  • ridingwaves

    nice…..that sucker could run to 50sma easily on daily…

    yet it would still be ugly for holders way above…..

  • Mark Shinnick

    Our hands….covered with blood; no reliable grip.

  • BKXtoZERO

    I haven’t tried chasing it.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPY I have it now right at VWAP and two bottoming tails 60 min with higher lows . I entered long on the 61.8% retracement in reply to GG below A close above 2482 is preferred
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    may I suggest the Bernoulli M-4..

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qIalODmFrZk

  • Mark Shinnick
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    OUT Breakeven
    JULIE

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    You should have taken the day off instead of stepping underneath a falling sword.

  • TimeToPanic

    Recently full moons have been highs, new moons lows.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Love those peaks 🙂

  • BKXtoZERO

    Are you still in UWT?

  • ridingwaves

    stopped out…took 1/2R hit…

  • TimeToPanic

    Bounceback birdie?

  • Ted

    Nope another double bogie.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    BPSPX 18.
    take every trade you say.
    😉

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Shut it down. Teacher’s coming.

  • TimeToPanic

    There’s a rally underway I think. Look for the necklines on the year long head and shoulders patterns. Not a big rally, they’ll be exit time for longs I think.

  • ridingwaves

    bears have another chance to take it lower tomm….lots of news in paniced eyeballs on govt. shutdown etc tonite…..

  • ridingwaves

    Hemp is legal now in US….starting to look at Cotton way out of the money puts too…
    easier to grow and less water plus harvesting labor demand is lower….

  • BKXtoZERO

    I closed todays UWT position + 0.10, I am already in 4R of UWT from 12 average and am not holding any more, TVIX, I wish I had left a bunch on. I have been afraid to chase it. For years I lived for the big turd of a turd down and now am kind of in disbelief. I figured either the FED meeting or year end would have caused a rally.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Asian bears. I suppose US bears could stay up on Red-bull if they want.
    😉

  • BKXtoZERO

    I wish… every time I decide to be an investor I am sorry

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    it’s about damn time.
    the THC vs. Hemp difference has finally been distributed.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Take every GOOD trade!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    LOL!
    learn something new every day!
    😉

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Unacceptable, Julie. I want a detailed report on how this happened.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    ..pics, don’t forget the Pics!

    and if you put one more lipstick pig (Julie), I’ll scream.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GLD Yesterday stopped out of remaining 1/4 long position . It was a nice ride off the bounce 21 ema Today a gap up with a high wave candle going into a double trend line resistance. A 3 drives to the top pattern now exists so now the weekly chart important. Overbought weekly chart JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/5c534e3c856564113742f088c4270c0ce6e48766b01b2a7e83172ab5705e06cd.png

  • ridingwaves

    I thought the sloth bear was dead a couple times….best fight ever
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bo2kHm8s2EY

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Chief A detailed compendium on this occurrence will be on your desk in the Lair before the market opens tomorrow a.m
    JULIE

  • TimeToPanic

    Your preference delivered Julie. Nice one.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    You better work through the night as I want it ring bound and itemized alphabetically.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Yes yes, pics, plenty of pics.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Alright guys – we really have to get our act together here. Thus far I see a lot of equities googling but very few setups. This has to change in the new year and I’ll be spearheading the effort.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Pop goes the weasel:

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/3fbf0f21a3d8c76aa8113d7b311343ec45d6f3da84294b5d2f9fe5458303e7d0.png

    There were attempts to buy today but they got stomped down. Let’s see what happens overnight.

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    1.3 bn chinese..they’ll inflate their own economy – just like USA has done..plus Africa, South America where they have been very pro-active forging relationships and playing on the fact that most countries in those 2 areas have been screwed by the USA or at least ignored by them..it’s a long process but the world order is changing..prob not in my lifetime

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    What I mean is to start sorting promising sectors, preferably range bound and LV trending sectors.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Chief I am afraid that will interfere with another activity planned for late this evening LOL!
    JULIE

  • Sp00nman

    What do you think of just shorting some futures contracts and hanging tight for a lower target? Nice thing about futures contracts is the tax advantage here in the US for taxable accounts vs short equities..

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Shorting is fine but we need to find more LV tape. I’m thinking of specific sectors that are dropping without too much drama. On the long side crude may be a buy in a few weeks, gold may turn into a buy soon (depends on the Dollar) and the Dollar may be a buy soon as well. So a mixed bag but spreading things out across non-drama sectors. Everyone will be getting whipsawed in equities while we make bank in more quiet markets. That at least is the idea.

  • Sp00nman

    Interesting thing about today is we have an equal move ~330pts for ES on this leg lower. ~2930-2606.. and now 2787-2440. If this “wave” lower is done, the 50% fib is a little over 2600. Of course we could just keep going lower..

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Seriously though – this is exactly the kind of shit I don’t want you guys to click on. ZeroEdge will fucking ruin your trading account if you let them.

  • TimeToPanic

    Soon, once these head and shoulders patterns play out. 10% lower from here.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Sometimes I feel like they are Wall Street’s version of controlled opposition.

  • ridingwaves

    Natural Gas is a sector in play right now….but it could change on a dime

  • https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLEx52bnnbLmh2dnV_Vyq1ErXT79LSU6pT xenoson

    daily sma?

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Chief I read Zero Hedge only one time and it was by accident.I read the tape only .. No CNBC .. Barrons only the insider buy – sell ratio nothing else in Barrons. IBD stocks with 90 + relative strength ratings for setups
    JULIE

  • ridingwaves

    no feeling there, its definitely a controlled entity built to confuse….rope a dope on steroids

  • Darkthirty

    That would correlate with an A B C flat, But the global pic says it’s just the beginning……….

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Lambs to the slaughter guys. Okay, getting late here – will turn into a pumpkin soon.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I’ll do a post tomorrow and then take time off until the 2nd or 3rd. Next year we are going to kick ass guys!

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    You can bet on it Chief ! See ya when you get back Chief ! have a nice vacation
    JULIE

  • TimeToPanic

    Merry Christmas to you and yours. You want some gold stored safely in trustworthy hands in Zurich, give me a shout, my business has an account at Loomis. See you next year.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I may take you up on a referral if you know trustworthy folks. But honestly I am the ‘bury gold deep in the forest underneath a large rock’ kind of guy. I don’t really trust banks whatsoever.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Still here tomorrow – wish me all that then! 😉

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Are you guys here tomorrow or should I not bother?

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    I will be here Chief
    JULIE

  • TimeToPanic

    I’m the most trustworthy guy on the planet. Christian. Loomis, safe as houses, not a bank, they bought out Viamat.

    Luckily Armageddon isn’t this time. It’s 20 years away at least, heh.

  • TimeToPanic

    I’ll not be around much tomorrow.

  • Sp00nman

    I will be here. If you put it off till next year I think everyone would understand..

  • maxcherry

    If the market is open, I’m here, might be a crazy day with triple witch.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    only if there’s pics.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36
  • kudra

    Yes. Very engaged in market these days. Getting closer to break even on massive TZA position accumulated in late 2016 early 2017 (too convinced dumbo would tank the economy. two years too early on that feel). Since the low in August (market peak), TZA has improved by 52%. Another 52% to break even. So, another 17% on IWM. Another 36% to go on QID to break even. so, another 18% down on the QQQ. Will be cutting losses on these next year. not holding out for break even necessarily, but willing to ride this (baby) bear for a while longer. have a positive year end return on the trading done w/ the remaining 11% of the acct. lesson: trade small and feel comfortable.

    EDIT: yes. I am a complete idiot.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    oh good. You’re alive.
    Was thinking about you today. must be a synchronistic thing.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Miners? stay away from that.
    😉

  • kudra

    You’re too nice. Happy Holidays. Hope to rejoin you folks next year in the land of the sane.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Hedge. if the Market snaps higher, your may freak out!
    buy some 2x to the upside, cheap insurance!
    😉

  • kudra

    Thanks. After 10 years+ of attempting to navigate this game and mainly losing, I don’t freak out as easily as I did. The market will undoubtedly make some moves higher, but the likelihood that we have reached bottom seems less than 50%. Regardless, i’ll be lightening up next year. 70%+ of this game is controlling your emotions and axing the ego.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I know you can do it. a Great lesson you will never, EVER forget.

    I had to unwind myself out of heavy Gold & Silver positions in 2013, probably did a terrible job, did I make $$? no,
    did I learn a helluva lot? Yes.

  • Darkthirty

    Anyone that wants to smoke…already is

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I’m looking for a secondary peak. like 2000.
    see chart. (nothing goes straight down IMHO)

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/b9d966b2eee3cb73f8c1f4be9b43c8bf5e6d576e554c0ecda6835117a578a715.png

  • kudra

    humbling

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I don’t want a another rise, but like MOle said, bear markets are hard.
    straight down is kind of hard to swallow at this point with the media hyping the bear and the end of the World.
    my two cents.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Revenues. that’s the driver isn’t it?

    That’s worked for the AZ commission & Indian reservation casinos.

  • Darkthirty

    Exactly! Problem is that they aren’t conservative with the revenue.

  • kudra

    no doubt. already flirting w/ a bounce after hours.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    anything can happen overnight.

    if you’ve been around 10 yrs, you can remember bear slides.

    I can’t trade them very well, apparently Julie can. he he.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/e09eb2ce7279dd0247a1efea9a399fd27b7ee1079f84444654ea2b41ff7bf416.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    gotta run.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys a lot of my indicators showing an intermediate term bottom is near … BUT I would like to see a grouping of $TRINS higher AND a 9.0 $NYDNV:$NYUPV for a flush. Two flushes 9.0 within 5 trading days would be ideal CNN FEAR and GREED INDEX showing extreme fear.$VIX outside it’s upper BB and 18% above it’s 10 ema is setting up for bounce. We Need The Flush Guys !
    JULIE

  • Ted

    Fantastic chart GG

  • Ted

    NYMO -88.63
    NYMOT -267.15

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    That’s it. Sell your Tesla, and buy.
    Buy with BOTH hands.

    -GG

    Happy Yule.
    4 hours to GO.
    https://yourcountdown.to/winter

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/941b541ed0aa53ad00c74a2e58eedac23bc430beb51abcf17fe40db197c54fe6.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • ridingwaves

    sweet green river channel..
    nice chart xmas gerb

  • BKXtoZERO

    Thats it… back up the truck tomorrow…..

  • ridingwaves

    more interested in hemp industrial wise as its much more efficient than any other fiber and could replace plastic to change the world. Hemp biodegradable bottles are gone in 30-45 days….

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys It is quite possible SPX down to 2325 – 2293 – 2277 before a meaningful bounce Yup !
    JULIE

  • Darkthirty

    Have to get rid of the govt “drug war” / prison profit and stigma first

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Oh boy oh boy – I don’t even know where to start, kudra. Have you not been around in the past few years?

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    ^^^^

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Bummer I’ll be too old by then. I say bring it on now while I’m still able to crack skulls.

  • http://www.captainboom.com/ captainboom

    I’m here.

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    one more flush down?

  • Sp00nman

    Yep.. I learned a heck of a lot from the previous PM bull market, and my account has the scars to prove it. I will not repeat that mistake again..

  • http://www.id1954626.sexyps.website larry_lockhart

    maxcherry briefly