Fence Hopping

I’m seeing a lot of fence hopping today which not only took out a few inflection points but also triggered some of the setups I proposed yesterday. Let’s review where we are:

The spoos sliced through their daily NLSL and not only that – we are now officially trading below both the 25-day and 100-day SMAs. That’s pretty bearish – even if we snap back here we’ll have a trifecta of resistance to deal with.

The volume profile chart has us now almost below that volume hole which may have offered some hope to dip buyers. And as you can see there is plenty of juice below leading into 1300. Which is also near the lower 25-day BB on my previous chart. So unless something dramatic happens before the close chances are we’re going to retest 1300.

Ole bucky triggered a long entry at 83.935 – if you took it then make sure your stop is set and do nothing. Definitely starting to enjoy my EUR/USD exchange rate these days.

USD/CHF – a classic NLBL retest which gave us a great opportunity for a cheap double dip nacho style. I think this beast could push quite a bit higher – set your stop and sacrifice a chicken in hopes of a short squeeze.

AUD/USD dropped through its NLSL – that’s strike one. We are now waiting for strike two which is a breach of the two entangled SMAs. Set your alert to 1.02 and be read if she drops below as gravity could pull this one toward par.

USD/CAD breached the SMA plus the NLBL which of course made it a great long entry. Nothing to do here right now as our target is quite some ways away. Yes, we may get a NLBL retest – I will keep my stop below it for a few days.

And finally treasury futures of the 30-year kind. I proposed a long yesterday despite a pretty scaring looking candle (which by the way looked even scarier on my chart). But technically it was a good long entry and I would probably start taking a few positions off the table as this was a pretty fast snapback. Probably not a bad idea to keep a few lottery tickets in the running.

Bottom Line: Let’s not overt hink this. Apparently quite a few inflection points where breached today and I don’t see any reasons to look for a floor on the equity side at least just yet. Keep watching the currencies – which is really what’s running the show. And let’s keep banking coin by solely focusing on technically solid setups.

Cheers,