Frayed Around The Edges

As the year is slowly winding down I’ve been doing a bit of personal introspection as part of taking stock of what I managed to accomplish as well as identifying areas where I could be doing better. Not to pad my own shoulder but given the hellish mess we’ve been through this year I think we’ve all done exceedingly well, and thus should be proud. But alas it has come at a psychological toll to many of us, and at least to me personally.

To be honest I have not felt this worn out since back during the 2008 financial crisis – and I was a bit younger back then, able to replenish my energy levels much more rapidly. Which is why I’m very much looking forward to taking some well deserved time off between Christmas and early January. Actually I recommend you all do the same and rest up as I don’t think that 2019 will be any easier than 2018.

All one has to do is to take a good look at the past year of weekly price action which stands in very stark contrast to the prior decade with the exception maybe of 2015. Interestingly however 2015 on a monthly panel looks almost like the horizontal mirror of 2018 in that the long spikes are on top as opposed to the bottom. Food for thought…

So given that I have to concede that I am not attributing high odds to my current lottery ticket which now has rolled into the March contract. Looking at that weekly chart I have a hard time imagining a strong push higher from here, and maybe that was the best reason for taking it. Plus the ST technicals of course.

Soybeans is looking fine but the lackluster session yesterday suggests we may get another retest of that prior resistance zone near 913.

My trail on the USD/JPY campaign remains at 1R. Looking pretty good and given current Dollar weakness this is actually a pretty good sign.