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Game Changer
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Game Changer

by The MoleMarch 23, 2018

Let’s not beat about the bush and call what happened during yesterday’s session asย what it represents: a possible game changer. I’ve slipped in that weasly adjective as nothing in the world of trading is ever guaranteed.

However that said: Unless some miracle occurs today and the bulls drive the E-Mini back > 2750 the gist pretty much is up for the foreseeable future. Let me how you where it all went horribly wrong:

I mentioned just yesterday that a breach below the line in the sand (LITS) at 2652 would be very bad news for equity traders and exactly here we are just one day later.

No of course the bulls still have a faint chance here to pull off a backward flip and somehow turn this formation into an ugly correction the wave wankers will no doubt spend weeks debating over.

But we here at Evil Speculator don’t really care about academics, do we? All that matters to us is what lays ahead and how we can exploit it for maximum ill-gotten gain.

So here is how I see it: Going forward any long campaigns should be considered lottery tickets, which is basically the inverse of our approach for the past two years or so.

We are basically transitioning from BTDF to STFR (sell the f…g rip). You can do both of course but in either case keep your position sizing small and your stops as wide as humanly possible. Got it? GOOD!

Now gold has been gyrating its way higher and the recent gyrations suggested that it was coiling up for a move higher. Don’t beat yourself up – this was a tough entry to catch.

But what’s a lot more important here is the medium to long term perspective, which is starting to look quite bullish. So until further notice the inverse strategy applies: BTFD instead of STFR for gold and other precious metals.

Alright, now let’s get to the good stuff – volatility. You’re going to love this:

The bad news is that you probably missed the countless opportunities when I told you to load up on long term SPY puts. You only have yourself to blame as you thought 49 bucks a month is too much for high quality market analysis.

If you’re paying a steep price today then make sure you cover your six in the future and sign up for a Gold or better yet a Zero sub right now for less than a single E-Mini handle. Don’t wait – do it now! I mean it – though times are ahead and you don’t want the Mole and his crew to be trading against you, do you? ๐Ÿ˜‰

Now the good news is…. well …. there are none really. But there are evenย worse news as my IV charts are all flashing bright red now:

I’ll throw one freebie to you leeches but then I’ll have to hand it to the pros: VIX vs. VXV – a.k.a. the IV term structure. If you don’t know what it is then don’t fret – it simply shows us a ratio of near term IV vs. more medium term IV. This is a representation of short term vs. medium risk perception.

I know – right? Your brain just froze over. Look just look at that chart and you’ll see how the Mole (which is me) is using the ratio very effectively to plot medium term turning points.

Except that it stopped working on the short side over the past year or so. And like with anything in life in the end there is always a price to be paid. And guess what – we’re all about to pay it.

What is happening right now is a yet another breach > the center line at 0.9 – which isn’t arbitrary, it delineates the approx. median of our current IVTS range (just stick with me here).

Apparently pushes > that center seem to precede downside corrections. And we just had one a month or so ago. What usually happens is a correction followed by a visit to the lower threshold in red.

And guess what – we didn’t get one. The signal dropped below the center and punched right back up.

But we are just getting warmed up – it gets even worse. If you’re not a sub then now is a good time to remedy your personal failings quickly and efficiently. No we don’t throw in a free set of steak knives, sorry ๐Ÿ˜‰

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About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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  • Richard Adler

    Excellent post Mole. I keep learning every day…..

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Well, thank you, Richard!

  • Yoda
  • Mary

    Some think this is bad …

    Some think this is good …

    These are just opinions …

    And opinions are like …. well,you know …

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Not market specific.

    yet ๐Ÿ˜‰

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Assholes..everyone has one?

  • Brishort

    Currently shooting star on CL hourly near previous high, may be worth watching.
    https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=CL&p=h1

  • Mary

    and they all stink …

  • Mary

    Hey Mole. FYI … Your crypto charts in the upper right are missing …

  • BobbyLow

    No Comment. ๐Ÿ™‚

  • BobbyLow

    As Scott used to say, “there are times when the trading is easy and there are times that the trading is hard. . .

    With the exception of fast day trades, which phase do you think we’re in now?

  • Brishort

    True, albeit it also confirms the regime change theory of Mole and Scott. Time to review all systems for the changing nature of what is now the tape we are given.

  • Mark Shinnick

    This maybe too macro for your question: There has been the stasis of % trend shaping a number of generations perceptions and reality. The new phase will take money from those generations of trading conditioning.

  • BobbyLow

    I agree for the most part. One thing that sticks in the back of my mind is the memory of there is always shit going on that “appears” to move the markets whether that move is up or down. Think Greece and the “fall of the Euro”, Iraq and never ending tumoil in the ME and every other worldwide event that has appeared to have shaken the markets. . But in reality, is this simply the end of one of the biggest bull markets in history? I think the market’s only had about a 10% correction currently. This used to be the norm and perhaps a 15 – 25 – 50% correction might bring us back to some form of normalcy.

    In the mean time, whatever’s going to happen is going to happen. However, I’m not going to place any big bets one way or the other and we’ll just have to see what the tape tells us over time.

  • Yoda
  • Yoda

    easy for me.

  • BobbyLow

    I think I know what you mean and often speak of how easy it was to make money during the tech bubble. I began trading just at the beginning of this bubble. Everyone was getting involved and it was unbelievable. I became conditioned to easy times. After that bubble burst, I was “reconditioned”. ๐Ÿ™‚

  • BKXtoZERO

    Mark, you had a great comment about 2 weeks ago. You said something like “perhaps we are biased” or our bias needs to change or some-such statement. You were perhaps the first to suggest regime change

  • BobbyLow

    Good for you. I think you might be an exception but I guess it depends on the type and style of each trader.

  • Yoda

    It is not about opinions but facts. Bolton is one of the worst warmongers in existence. WW3 has already started, but with guys like him at the top, it will go into over-drive.
    I have adjusted my portfolio accordingly:
    L Oil
    L Gold (through miners)
    L Defence stocks
    These are positions that I plan to hodl to for the long-term with very wide stops, essentially Fire and Forget.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Re-entered shorts.

  • Mary

    Your 2nd and 3rd sentences are opinions, not facts.

    One of the biggest problems in the world is that many people don’t know the difference. That is my opinion.

  • Yoda

    BTW, if we were to talk like waver wankers, the 3rd wave should be in progress. Bwahahahaha ๐Ÿ˜‰
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/29cce15ac7bb85ccf251c617d1c4bcab40e44e52cbe4a6c4c8cc4a4d380d71a1.png

  • Yoda

    And do you know the difference?

  • Mary

    Yes., for the most part. That’s why I posted my last sentence.

  • BobbyLow

    FWIW, Portfolio wise, I think that’s a good way to go.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Testing your luck today you are!

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    They sometimes don’t load properly. Not sure why but it’s not a biggie IMO

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Agree about Bolton.

  • Yoda

    Good for you. I hope that what you consider my opinion is proven wrong in the long-run and that facts don’t come back to bite everybody’s stinky ass.

  • Mark Shinnick

    This looks like a powder keg close to an ignition source right now.

  • Yoda

    The line you threw, the hook I had to bite

    ๐Ÿ˜›

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    So Richard is the only one who liked my post? I guess it’s time to look for another vacation spot!

  • Mark Shinnick

    Leave immediately.

  • Yoda

    Trying to raise cash as best as I can, you know.

  • BKXtoZERO

    I LOVED it but I am a stinking leech so my opinions don’t matter as much. I have read EVERY post, every day.

  • Yoda

    LOL

  • Yoda

    As long as the 10 y yield remains at the present high level; I don’t think it is a good idea to catch knifes at this stage

  • Brishort

    Preferably by plane this time! Better bear results!

  • Ronebadger

    3 others UP-VOTED his post.

  • BKXtoZERO

    I am out of TVIX at 9.8 from 8.95 for 0.85 gainer. Yesterday took a 1.5 gainer but early. I did come up with rules that helped me a lot but I never did define a good exit system. a bird in hand is always better than 2 in the bush and your bird in your hand I always say.

  • Brishort

    Lucky I am around to post a P&F from time to time!!!!
    https://www.screencast.com/t/aXScizvNG

  • BKXtoZERO

    Mole. I really think you need to ad some EMOJIs in your posts so we can all give you smiles, hugs and cute little puppy faces.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    โ€œOlder men start wars, but younger men fight them.
    โ€• Albert Einstein

    โ€œI know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones.โ€
    โ€• Albert Einstein

    Albert Einstein slept with his cousin, she must have been HOT.
    ๐Ÿ˜‰

    can you see the resemblance? (the nose?)
    http://simplebooklet.com/userFiles/a/3/0/7/2/4/0/ujtgxLAM9eaqF8d945i7kL/3mEiw3VQ.jpg

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Off with the hermit’s head, we must.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    #LeechesUnite

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    ROFL. give me a hug.
    https://i.pinimg.com/originals/12/a2/e2/12a2e28f28a40bc5252329a54394a8db.png

    ..just no Bro’nies. a Gerb has his limits.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    ..that’s it. You are now officially in the Breakfast Club.

  • BKXtoZERO
  • Trouzzer_Snake

    Seeing some reversal signals, trying long ES @ 2634.50

  • Trouzzer_Snake

    Filled

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    ..just in case anyone misunderstood me yesterday.
    I was joking about BTFD

    it’s a crude chart, compared to the nuclear physics charts Captain cooks up. (it’s the German heritage)
    I’m a simple Scottish Gerb.
    “don’t be long” – let the house burn
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24BPSPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p02855803153
    -GG

  • HD

    $SPX symmetry hit.

  • Tomcat

    Too late GG, I BTFD

    jk ofcourse

  • Mark Shinnick

    Its funny….just a tic or so…or a few commissions. Some perspective, please.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    average down, it *has* to turn around eventually.

    J/K.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Wrongdoing in the world is ever-seeking. “Peace through strength” is a proven deterrent. No, its not perfect and it is abused…but those wrongs I believe are less than the alternative. Formerly, in the real world, positions were taken and a lot of ground lost correctly-calculating that nothing would be done about it by the US. Ground lost to wrongdoing is way harder to recover.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Brishort
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Mark Shinnick

    I’m hanging short, no bounce energy in evidence yet.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    It’s a dirty job but someone’s gotta do it.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Fuck, aging really sucks.

  • Yoda

    Fine with me but as long as we all don’t get incinerated as a result of some overzealous hotheads. In a nuke war, there are no winners.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Well, one thing its saying is of the most complex change inter-trend since 2015.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Backed-off the shorts…see what happens.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Brishort

    It’s the curse of the Friday that Julie called recently, things tend to tick-up on Friday. Unsure why, but seems to indeed be a recurring behavior of the last few weeks.

    Therefore, VWAP retest fist, it’s what comes after that will really be interesting….

  • Yoda

    Send them just a dollar?

  • Mark Shinnick

    I’ve seen .01 credit card verifications….they did say any amount.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    LOL – that would be brazen. And maybe that’ll buy me a BTC some day ๐Ÿ˜‰

  • Trouzzer_Snake

    I’m seeing some divergence on $TICK, it’s a decent reversal indicator for upturns. Down turns not so much. At least in this bull market. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/33f7f22adbd9089ebe7cfd8fef0dcb88c17b680edd4ddb2cba717ebfd7dc6c3d.png

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I get it – but it’s the principle that irks me. I sent them my ID scans and a pic of myself – they also have my phone #. But no – not enough. Verification should not depend on a transaction as that can come from anywhere – even a friend’s or 3rd party’s account.

    I think the crypto space needs to undergo a lot more pain before they get off their high horses.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yes, in this age of wholesale lost privacy the last couple generations blithely disregards, the principle is anachronism to majority think. i.e., Too many people actually trust government.

  • HD

    25 point hit into symmetry and 15 point bounce off it. Calling it a good first day back.

  • Mark Shinnick

    …yet….the alternative?

  • Mary

    spending bill signed into law …

    initial stock index reaction is slightly down …

    we shall see …

  • Mark Shinnick
  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

    it was a legit dip to buy… up until yesterday
    I can’t tell a normal correction from a first leg of bearmarket, so just fight the turns.
    I got stops on for half of my stocks, some already triggered.
    But when they turn – I turn, because last low is always lowest low… lol

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    I was driving into work, and thinking..”Dam, Thursday are big movers. No, it’s just your bias GG, calm down”.

    and then I thought..”If Scott can use a spreadsheet, so can you. Dam it GG, get to work!”

    and then I thought..”Julie needs to send some beach cheesecake”. {ahem, strike that}

    and then I thought..”Man up, be a QUANT”.

    so here is the results of 1 Year of S&P, High minus Low absolute value, range distribution per day.

    thoughts? Did I do that maff right? 2 points wider range on Thursdays?!

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/4139cdd65aebb170da14178890a08d512e044f6764f89f786b738cdb42ae4820.png

  • Mary

    can’t see it GG

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    refresh? click “see more” bar?

  • Mark Shinnick

    Nicely done !!

  • Trouzzer_Snake

    Closed for 12 handles.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    I can’t believe it’s a full 2 points skewed. somebody double check me.

  • Mary

    got it … did you include overnight data?

  • Ronebadger

    My name is “Ronebadger”…and I’m a perma-bear…

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Heck no, just a simple SPX data download from Yahoo.

  • Mary

    it would be interesting to see if NDX, RUT, and INDU confirm …

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    whoa Mary, I’m not that kind of guy.
    ๐Ÿ˜‰

  • Mary

    That’s not what I read …

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    LOL.
    word gets around.

  • Trouzzer_Snake

    Great post Mole! I needed to sit down and digest this one…

  • Mary

    You can learn a lot in a truck stop …

  • Brishort

    Since we are all missing Julie’s clouds, I will oblige.
    NDX 30 minutes resolution game plan https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/99a141a620e7e6ac1d9fc35b5e06d5c92469de35ccd6c897bb704a6f0fff1b35.png

  • Mark Shinnick

    Eased back into short. Thin wire walking.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    hey now, let’s keep this Pixar Friendly.
    ๐Ÿ˜‰

    http://cdn.viralitytoday.com/posts/Dxag1/r685rJfY.jpg

  • Brishort

    In the spirit of Scott: if something expected does not occur, that the opposite is magnifiable more powerful, interesting read as the study is currently invalidated by market actions.

    http://quantifiableedges.com/when-ndx-has-closed-at-a-multi-week-low-on-a-fed-day/

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    I tend to lean into that observation “The suggestion is that the Fed Day decline is often an overreaction, and that the market is likely to bounce”.

    price is set before-hand for worse case situation. then if the outcome is “not so bad”, relief upward shows up.
    -my 2 grams

  • Brishort

    prepare the popcorn, currently hugging lower line

  • Brishort

    The key distinguisher here is that his analysis is on Fed Day, with usually 0;8% drawdown in the following days.

    The magnitude of the current post-fed days sell-off could be the invalidator here. Not a prediction, just another arrow in the bow!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Mark Shinnick

    Volatility has been hanging a bit too high for what is usually a bit too long…but what is normal anymore?

  • Mark Shinnick

    Cracking?

  • Brishort

    Whoever wants to stand strong holding the bid ahead of this week-end will need quite deep pockets between now and the close…

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    daily EMA(40) is the closet I can get for you bud.
    ๐Ÿ˜‰
    [VIX]
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24VIX&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p74599836245

  • Brishort

    The way it’s looking, we may need a bigger popcorn bowl….

  • Brishort

    One hour candle on the Dow, the story that currently tells it all…

  • Mark Shinnick

    Well…a damm good set of reasons in the first place,

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    ignore the wave counting. notoriously stolen public chart.

    “game over man..”, or perhaps price gets stuck in a pennant triangle region.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/d53831d6caf1b64d12a32fb20ce3113067be4a0cf3e4a483430eccd1ad655fb6.png

  • Mark Shinnick

    Who, I wonder would justify standing in the way until some of the more robust trendlines or MA’s?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    HYG,
    follow thru. RSI, death ceiling.
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=HYG&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p26165655637

    iBerg, peace -n- love.

  • Brishort

    In these types of strong trending candles, a simple 15 seconds filter via Ichimoku cloud to know when to pay attention can do wonders. Although one could think the period is too small, it does wonders since the beginning of February as a filter and potential stop at the top of the cloud.

    Here is the Dow for the last two hours.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/cd791256af368af29cc0a24d2f180b08a3c9a34efc5dcea0b6f7f1d63d4174a0.png

  • BobbyLow

    My day started out ugly this morning when I got whipsawed on yesterday’s short crude position. I held my nose and flipped to long. My short on XLE (ERY) held up pretty well through this morning’s upturn and is now back to positive on the day with about 45 Minutes to the close. A lot of my hit this morning has been recaptured and we’ll see what happens by the COB.

  • Brishort

    BL, I have been fairly whipsawed myself on crude the last few days. The trending times will come back, but right now, as it is rechallenging its Feb high, a lot of cross-current banging the boat. But that too shall pass…

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yeah, great point. Whatever the tool, some objective method putting what’s happening into some better more filtered/stabilized perspective.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    BAC,
    Julie would have pounced by now. Her favorite prey

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BAC&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p16679619629

  • Julie

    Hi BL and Brishort. Gotta few minutes and checking in. Having a great time. USO IMO watch closely going up into upper channel (blue) and raff regression(red) and resistance overbought JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/191c81f7f3bfdce4db4b08b10f5822b6ef176025cb061b79b2e40a514ccad325.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    when you’re ready, let’s talk about a neutral zone strategy.
    it’s just like binary, with a little bit of fuzzy filling. less emotional wear.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    THERE she is. big hug, and emoticons.

  • Julie

    Very nice Brishort. Not sure what parameters you are using for the Ichi Cloud. I use 8,21,55 in lieu of the standard 9,26,52
    JULIE

  • Mark Shinnick

    BTW…there’s not much data I really yet on this, but there are some enticing volume holes not far below us here i.e, 2540 zone.

  • Julie

    Hi GG ! Second Honeymoon. Having a great time.! Going to stay another week.!
    JULIE

  • Julie

    GG TLT too if you recall. Oh Well A much deserved vacation. As BL said the market never stops and a trade always presents itself. Today is the first time I have looked at a chart since we have been here. Everyone needs a break and happy that Mole was able to get away.
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • BobbyLow

    Thanks GG. But there is very little room for being neutral in my system. I’m running at about a 56% Win Rate and I expect almost every other trade to be a loser not necessarily in sequence but on average. So these losses don’t wear on me at all. They are expected and when they come, they usually come relatively quickly.

  • BobbyLow

    Exactly. And another thing is in order to catch a trend you’ve got to be in it to win it.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    I’ve learned to ignore the Win rate.
    what’s your expectancy?

    https://evilspeculator.com/tools-section/concepts/

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Happy Weekend Everyone.

    I plan to chew on everything Saturday. Sunday I work, Ugh.
    Till Monday.

    Cheers!

  • BobbyLow

    Glad you asked. As of right now, my current APE is at .27327, my SQN100 is at 2.7572 and my SD is at .99. My APE and SQN were much higher a couple of weeks ago and this made me realize that I was overdue for a few losses as well.

  • BobbyLow

    I forget to ask what’s your APE and SQN?

  • Yoda

    Same to you old rat

  • Brishort

    Happy week-end too and to everyone here! See ya all!

  • Julie

    You too GG and everyone !
    JULIE

  • HD

    $SPX is one spicy meat-a-balla!

  • HD

    nice job Mark

  • BobbyLow

    Next week should be very interesting.

    Have a great weekend everyone. ๐Ÿ™‚

  • Julie

    Back at ya Brishort.
    JULIE

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    You too Bobby, HD, GG, Julie, Brishort, Mark, Trouzer, Mary, and everyone else I missed.

  • Julie

    Thanks Chief ! Glad you too were able to get away and recharge the batteries. Have a great weekend Chief !
    JULIE

  • tomek

    Mole, Gemini is worth the verification pains. Awesome exchange with great customer service vs GDAX. Also, bank transfers, once you’re verified take ~12hrs during weekdays. As far as verification, any amount will do, i did $15 or some silly amount via wire transfer too. Well worth it though.

  • ridingwaves

    secret sauce is green line and there is where the end of the line lies……… the 60 million green volume candle on TVIX the 19th was telling…..made this too easy….the big boys almost pointed at where they were going…..see ya all at 2460….
    ridingwaves 3 days ago
    a slight disturbance in the force, I feel Master Yoda

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/e2d94f0a2c80c081713134ba2b70b09a93db6954a7328041a66a21d52e1efb22.png

  • https://scottphillipstrading.com/trade-setup Scott Phillips

    Great post amigo.

  • https://scottphillipstrading.com/trade-setup Scott Phillips
  • BKXtoZERO

    well your “how to trade the SP” chart was pretty spiffy. Thanks Scott.

  • BKXtoZERO

    I missed that post…. dang. I have been keeping TVIX tight but nailing every intraday entry given and only one overnight after the FED meeting. I love TVIX but I will never be phucked by this thing again. Great intraday mover. Today nailed another but I could have had 2 maybe 3 entries today rather than one. I saw them.

  • https://scottphillipstrading.com/trade-setup Scott Phillips

    We only remember the times they work! I’ve posted hundreds of losing setups here also.

  • https://scottphillipstrading.com/trade-setup Scott Phillips

    Sorry thats a bitcoin chart if you didn’t know

  • https://freshcalendars.com/april-2018-calendar calendar for april 2018

    2750 the gist pretty much is up for the foreseeable future. Let me how you where it all went horribly wrong:

  • https://scottphillipstrading.com/trade-setup Scott Phillips

    Those are words, but it doesn’t make sense. Engrish?

  • https://scottphillipstrading.com/trade-setup Scott Phillips

    Dude thats AMAZING RESULTS. Better than mine

  • Mark Shinnick

    Very odd, this one; he posted a reply to the current environment to a ES thread of mine of a year ago.

  • https://scottphillipstrading.com/trade-setup Scott Phillips

    Probably not a native english speaker ๐Ÿ™‚

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Neither are you! LOL :-))

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    The good ole’ RTV – we love it.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    to be honest, I haven’t calculated it out.
    even if I did, the low sample rate would be sketchy, right?

    I’m a amateur swing trader with less than a single trade per week.

    My win rate is 68.4% That reflects a weakness to take profits early, with the risk of a ‘few bad trades’ wiping me out.

  • https://scottphillipstrading.com/trade-setup Scott Phillips

    Only at the head, or the tail…never the fillet

  • https://scottphillipstrading.com/trade-setup Scott Phillips

    Strewth cunt! Aye yeah nah… bewdy cobber!

  • https://scottphillipstrading.com/trade-setup Scott Phillips

    Rob Hanna runs a superb blog.

  • BobbyLow

    Thanks for being honest. ๐Ÿ™‚

    I’ve been averaging over 4 closed trades per week. My net profit has been higher than what it had been trading longer time frames. But I believe that I’m also taking profits too early and that there is room for improvement .

    So I recently made a change in my trade management by changing the way I use stops after my Initial Stop at entry. This “should” cut my number of my trades down and “increase” my net profit over time and still allow for a number of whipsaws like those that happened last week. I need to keep this new method of stops in place long enough to see if in fact they work out as well as my latest back test demonstrated. Doing this will be easier said than done while watching my potential profits come and go until the final conclusion of my trades but worthwhile trying.

    I think one of the problems that most of us have is finding the sweet spot in whatever system we choose that maximizes our time and effort. I’ve come to believe that everything I do in this business is important but nothing is more important than how I manage my trade after entry.