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History Does Not Repeat Itself – But It Rhymes

History Does Not Repeat Itself – But It Rhymes

by The MoleSeptember 14, 2009

Various analysts (e.g. Market Mike, Daneric, and perhaps T.K.) have recently been comparing the obvious similarity in gyrations to the 1937 recession:

My opinion (and of course everyone has one) is this: History does not repeat itself – but it rhymes. Meaning – repeating fractals can be found all over the place but the wave count is completely different on this one, a blatant fact everyone seems to be ignoring.

The 1937 was a complete zigzag correction as part of cycle wave II of Supercycle (V) – according to my count.

The current depression didn’t start in 2007 – it started in 2000 and was papered over by Greenspan and the Fed. Since then we have been tracing out a large expanded flat (psalm 47:1-34 in our bible), of which the c leg is still in progress and I expect to conclude far below 666 – again, according to my (and Prechter’s) count.

The difference here is key in that the 1937 correction was a regular zigzag in which the A leg traditionally is steeper than the C leg. However this time around we’re dealing with a nasty expanded flat which will fool many bulls (and bears) as the C leg of a flat is steeper and more violent than the A leg.

I’ve said before and I say it again – this bear market is only getting started and the nastiest part of it (Primary {3} of cycle wave c) is in the near term future.

About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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