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How The Best Laid Plans Fail
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How The Best Laid Plans Fail

by The MoleJanuary 24, 2019

Yesterday’s session is a textbook example of how the best laid plans can fail. It’s also a welcome reminder as to why I don’t bother to count waves or rely on magic market cycle theories. If you skip back one post then you’ll see the binary setups I presented which, given the information at the time, seemed perfectly reasonable. Shortly after reality kicked in and swiftly tossed a crate of grenades into my nefarious scheme.


Our Zero indicator offers us some strong hints as to what was going on. Which is a complete lack of participation and clear signs that bot trading was dominating the tape. High participation markets don’t turn on a dime like that, and especially twice in the same session.

Here’s the UVOL:DVOL panel and I’ve pinned the SPX cash below it for some context. See how both turns merely make a dent in the respective signals as well as the ratio (in magenta)? What’s even strange is that the reversal was actually accompanied by a rise in DVOL which lasted all the way into the close. Possible sign of short accumulation?

As you can see the open started to look extremely promising after which the floor suddenly gave out and eventually led to a stop out, once again almost exactly nailing my ISL. Seems like I’m just lucky this week…

My original plan had been to immediately go short but given what I was seeing in the market internals, and on the Zero in particular, I did not trust the sell off and decided to be conservative and wait for a retest. Which in the end saved my butt as the snap back was almost immediate.

HOWEVER that does not mean the bear is dead and that we’re going to necessarily see a massive rally after this double bottom fake out.

Let’s Talk Trend

As you may recall I’m I’m the process of recording a video series on system building and in that context had put together a few handy charts on market phases for a screen session.

The VolStat and StretchStat indicators above, both concepts I brazenly stole from Ken Long and implemented for NinjaTrader, may be useless when it coms to anticipating market phases. But they are excellent for showing us where we are right now.

And even Mr. Magoo would agree that we are knee deep in high volatility bearish tape right now. Which, as we’re increasingly finding out (and I had warned you about on numerous occasions) is a royal bitch to navigate.

Here’s the SQN indicator I mentioned the other day but on a weekly chart. What blew my mind was how well it describes market activity in equities over the past seven years.

And then a second time when I realized that almost every single candle on this chart represents one whole week since I left the U.S. and moved to Spain in April of 2012. Insane…. where does time go?

Anyway, if we consider the ranges between the SMA and the upper/lower 2.0 Bollingers:

Framed in green are obviously times when the market is gaining on a net basis. BTFD on touches of that SMA in the center is pure manna from heaven. You GOT to love LV bull markets, so much fun.

Framed in yellow are the transition phases. Although price is still advancing its relative gain on a percentage basis has dropped and is unable to exceed the 100-week mean. Here both buying at the lower BB and selling at the SMA is working very well.

Framed in red are the sell off phases. Once the signal dips below the lower BB and remains there, unable to recover back above, a HV corrective phase is at hand. Theoretically attempts to recover are great opportunities to STFR but who is to say that you won’t be squeezed out this time around?

High Volatility Bear Markets Are Tough

And here’s how the cookie crumbles when it comes to trading HV bear markets or even when it comes to non-secular bearish market phases. A massive jump in RV (and IV) serves to make our respective lives hell, with yesterday’s session just being a modest example.

A week or two of it may be fun and exciting but a year plus of aberrant swings make us question ourselves and leads us to fill all that noise with our own opinions and various perspectives. It’s one thing to be right about the final direction, it’s quite another to actually trade it.

I Know What You’re Thinking

So I’m sure you’re now wondering if I’m going to use this jump higher for a discounted short entry or if I’m tempted to re-enter long.

My stop out yesterday wasn’t a big deal as I had employed small position sizing, which of course I had mentioned knowing the odds:

Nevertheless, given the general context of what I posted yesterday the long campaign has very low odds of succeeding but at the same time offers a low risk to benefit ratio. Or a high benefit to risk ratio if that makes more sense. Suffice to say that my position size is small here given the low chance of success.

We are basically back to where we were then and given the double bottom in place the odds for the bulls have slightly increased. But are they GREAT odds?

The LT trend charts above show us in a bearish market phase and it makes sense to not fight the overall trend until the NLBL at SPX 2685.5 remains in place. Yesterday’s entry was a low probability short term lottery long, but given what I’m seeing in terms of participation we can expect more monkey business and shake out attempts in the near future.

Bottom Line

So my assessment at this point in time is that short positions here are justified but need to be backed up by participation and market internals. That said, if you remember my big momo update then you know that the medium term internals do favor the bears again and given what I’ve seen I have a hard time imagining that the bulls are ready to turn the tide right here and right now.

I would love to see a nice divergent signal on the Zero indicator, more selling pressure, and at least a very convincing spike high in place before jumping into short contracts. As usual I prefer to work my way up from a short term entry which I can then transition into a medium term campaign.

On the long side it’s probably best to wait until the weekly NLBL at SPX 2685.5 has been overcome. At minimum a breach of ES 2673.5 needs to be on the table for me to re-consider a long position. And even then I need to see a convincing spike high in place and would be unwilling to employ a break out continuation strategy.

Why is that? Because had I employed one yesterday at the breach of the prior spike low then I would have gotten royally reamed overnight. And that campaign would have been following the ongoing trend, which is still officially down. After all the best strategy during HV tape is to buy and sell at potential price extremes.

Market Survival Rules
  1. Know what market phase you are in.
  2. Employ the proper trading strategy.

Makes sense. You don’t want to trend trade in a sideways market and you don’t want to trade mean reversions in a bull or bear market.

I know this sucks right now as it really puts us in a bind from a participation perspective. But it most definitely beats the alternative, which is getting caught up in the endless gyrations.

The bulls have enjoyed an easy ride higher from the lows. Now it’s time to demonstrate that they are willing to hold and extend re-gained territory when the going gets tough. Until that happens we are in a bearish market phase and should act accordingly.

A Final Thought

Reading all the above you may walk away with the impression that I feel very passionate about equities and that I’m determined to make a right call every step on the way. But frankly I don’t care this much as there so many other, much easier, markets to be active in.

But I know many of you do and as the humble host of this digital sanctum of reason and rationality I take my role very seriously. Plus it’s a great exercise in clearly expressing my own thinking process, which hopefully will be of value to you.

BobbyLow paid us a welcome visit yesterday, but it came with a stark warning in form of a sobering tale about one of his close friends, which I am taking the liberty to share below:

The market can be a cruel bitch and wipe us out in a heartbeat if we let it. I just had another good friend of mine get totally wiped out and after talking with him on the phone I can understand what he did even though he should never have done it. He was certain that this time was going to be different and that he would be able to recoup all his previous losses in one trade. He went in big on metal futures. The trade went against him and he received margin calls that he met and went in even deeper. Eventually he got totally wiped out and lost his entire life’s savings.

Scott used the term being carried out on a stretcher and my friend blowing up his account was just one more casualty of the trading wars. This one hit close to home because it happened to someone I knew. Having worked closely with Scott, I know he has gone down for the count a few times himself. I think Mole has had a few very close calls as well. Personally, I’ve gone down for the count so many times, I feel like “The Bayonne Bleeder” Chuck Wepner would have felt having gone up against Muhammad Ali over and over again.

It took me many years to get it through my thick scull that when in the midst of battle, a seasoned vet like Mole or Scott says duck that I better hit the ground. Another thing that took me many years to realize is that I must have a system that fits my personality and risk tolerance. 

If you think you are immune to this then think again. A good friend of mine, who happens to be a professional quant trader at a Chicago firm, made one emotional decision last March which basically ended up robbing him of an entire year’s worth of trading profits.

He didn’t blow up and he’s back in the game now. But the lesson learned is that this is all it takes, guys. And if it can happen to a professional quant trader with an IQ well over 140 and over a decade of hands on experience then what do you think are the odds it can happen to you?

“There are old traders and there are bold traders, but there are very few oldbold traders.”
— Ed Seykota

Wise and humbling words to live by.


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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  • Sp00nman

    Great post Mole (and yesterday as well). I really appreciate the the reasoning/logic behind the trades you take. Ultimately to me it’s always interesting to know the why behind trades, whether it turns out to be right or wrong is less important.

  • Edd

    Thanks Mole, outstanding post this morning. Superb clarity and succinct view of where we are. This one has been added to several other gems that I use as personal mandatory reading before the start of every trading day.

  • Jason13

    Strong reaction off the overnight low..

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    well written – know many (inc myself) who in the past “knew” which way the markets were heading – but made little – over-trading – which then results in lack of confidence and more..
    Unless you have very deep pockets – it is very difficult !

  • 1coin3lives

    There’s a ton of good info on ES, but this is one of the best posts I’ve read since I began following last year. Great work, and thanks!

  • Jason13

    My favourite part… and why…
    “Here’s the UVOL:DVOL panel and I’ve pinned the SPX cash below it for some context. See how both turns merely make a dent in the respective signals as well as the ratio (in magenta)? What’s even strange is that the reversal was actually accompanied by a rise in DVOL which lasted all the way into the close. Possible sign of short accumulation?”

    The time it takes the big boys and the retail trader (us) to accumulate a short is drastically different. We have the advantage of being nimble but the disadvantage of having peanuts for capital. This morning was a classic case of how I can be nimble with a long trade or exit using Zero and if Mole will allow me I’d like to show how I did it at the EOD today with a screen shot of Zero.

  • HD

    Great post Mole. wave counting even getting honorable mention in the second sentence!

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    I’m sure Wilbur Ross has been an extra on the Walking Dead 😉

  • BKXtoZERO

    NIce post Mole. Thanks. I had a pretty good day yesterday and I am STILL here…. All these stories did do one thing, they made me decrease my daily trading activities (holds) to smaller sized positions and made me switch back more to intraday hit and run activity. Thanks. If I am carried out on a stretcher it will be due to bad health.

  • BKXtoZERO

    L TVIX 48.2

  • Rightside

    Mole, did the trend day alert go out?

  • http://www.linkedin.com/in/sharondsessions/ Sharon

    Thank You, Sir Mole III, for your awesome as usual post today.

    This is such a wonderful place to learn with a great crew.

  • evilasevildoes

    On the
    ‘it’s probably best to wait until the weekly
    NLBL at SPX 2685.5 has been overcome. At minimum a breach of ES 2673.5
    needs to be on the table for me to re-consider a long position. And even
    then I need to see a convincing spike high in place and would be
    unwilling to employ a break out continuation strategy.

    Agree!

  • Sp00nman

    I haven’t gotten it but if I had to guess it would be a low probably up trend day. Recent action more chop chop. Cleared some stops around the O/N high and back down into range. Nice short trade for anyone that caught it.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Chief I concur with everyone … Great post and Thanks Chief
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX Consolidation (bull flag) for a possible move higher .. I knew something was funny yesterday as posted. Watching carefully
    JULIE

  • Sp00nman

    What Bull flag Julie. You mean a flag/consolidation range from the Friday high of ~2675? Thus far all I see on spx has been a channel off the lows from yesterday. This next hour or so has been interesting the last several days. Let’s see if that continues.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Nice little fake out in crude above short term downtrend line.Back inside now……………… https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/29d1d1a5b5e0c0c6f58a6dacd65adb5c856a7a1320e2da3b0b94b5c4baec82d0.jpg

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hi SP A minor bull flag from the high 2675.Not rolling over as it https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c2a4150532fa0c41bb9ec6f0b848bd58e0783fbd8577c0a5118639ce60cd91ca.png should from a break of the rising wedge IMO is the Banks ($BKX) $BKX holding it’s daily 5 ema . A bearish close below it’s 5 ema is needed which will pressure SPX

  • https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLEx52bnnbLmh2dnV_Vyq1ErXT79LSU6pT xenoson

    Yes, ES back into the fat of the year long volume profile. Holding the lower distribution 2620 to 2700 is bullish after the bullish trend up. Gyrations typical for high volume zones.

  • Ted

    Great post Mole as always. Here is what Julie is talking about: bull flag forming in the direction of the lower channel. I don’t expect anything much to happen until next week. This is an hourly chart. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/fca0021d19d0074ac2bdc693ed427712e6f9f9f2da90c25bc0494c18c478c3d4.png

  • BKXtoZERO

    Out DWT 10.0 from 10.2 crude bulls working that line again…. no more daily trading positions. sticking w. VIX

  • StockTalker

    Time to squeeze some shorts.

  • Brishort

    “Market weather” observations at the moment:

    Vix 10 min. stopped going down but has not retaken 20. Therefore not good short signals confirmation.

    Dow down, Nasdaq up but all FANGs red, with aapl deeply red. Distribution highly suspected in largest tech cap.

    Below VWAP and Zero not dead. There are market participants trading right now.

    Bottom line:

    All my SAR and Cloud 10 minutes on indexes are currently either on sell of below cloud.

    Trading plan:

    Looking for good short entries at or close VWAP, stop slightly above on Hourly SAR.
    Target: taking out/retesting somehow yesterday’s NQ low around 6600

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Brishort What parameters do you use on your cloud ? I use 8,21,55 in lieu of the standard 9,26,52
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    “Deep pockets” to me means more losses if stubborn

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Thanks Ted You beat me to it Was going to post a chart ! LOL!
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys IMO the Banks ($BKX) is key per chart and reply below to SP
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX A push above 2655 would help the Bulls
    JULIE

  • Ted

    The small caps have broken out to the upside of a very short bull flag.

  • BobbyLow

    FWIW, I’m still holding 1/2 Position Long via UCO. MOMO is staying positive enough on both my /CL 3 Hour and /CL 1 Hour as of this moment.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys A brief summary on my position SPX I opened a very small short probe last week and added a very small amount to the short. Position size is small Will add with a bearish close below 2622.94 If it goes against me very small loss.I opened a short position anticipating a brreak down of the rising wedge pattern which can be fast and furious and difficult to catch.Again my position is very small with MUCHO dry powder
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    slow motion chop…. arg…someone e-mail me when the paint dries.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys SPX The gap up on January 18 is acting as resistance Now again a push above 2655 (gap resistance) would help the bulls
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    EDIT ..Gap up on January 18
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    BK If they can’s take you out they will wear you out Hang in there pal .. It will break one way or the other
    JULIE

  • Sp00nman

    As xenoson mentioned below, we’re back in the meat of the range over the last 6 months. It took us a few tries to punch through it on the way down. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/33eaf80af74ea53b15c020c5898ed38da1c5889daa9dda5d3a75d3c608d3ee68.png

  • evilasevildoes

    anyone smell an ambush?

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    EV .. I smell a “Rat” We gotta watch the “Banks:
    JULIE

  • evilasevildoes

    2654.82 must get above but I prefer Moles stance

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    EV That’s what I have too 2655 (gap resistance) Good eye EV
    JULIE

  • Ted

    SOX up 6%

  • Sp00nman

    Edit, meant to say 90 days. Here’s the range with the meat of the volume. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/be4ba7ed56b5b193cbf2d91455370c4b9f8a8e077f4216c26583b1649a863dad.png

  • Jason13

    I smell a coiling…

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    guess it depends on your time frame for trading as always

  • kudra

    why do you finish each of your posts with “JULIE”? We know it’s you.

  • Edd

    Because she is a sweetheart and writes as if she is sending each of us a personal note would be my guess. You go girl.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    A post below Ted pointed out $SOX up 6% Let’s see how it reacts at 233 ema matching a resistance zone They gaped it up over an upper down trend line JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c81ac2d3ae4caf600ca5bd48e7acd5d6066f5a145c2bdc8e62f865cc5a08c1aa.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Love all you guys ! LOL!
    JULIE (my signature)

  • Darkthirty

    Seems when the charts run this pattern, there’s a large move immanent……

  • Jason13

    Agree

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    all the excitement – nothing has changed – no down trends broken (yet) – markets all behaving as they would after a sharp fall.. – still watching – and testing strength

  • kudra

    Love you too, Julie. Hope you didn’t take my ? as a an attack. I just found your practice odd and redundant, but I guess now it’s endearing. Keep on keepin on.

  • TomW4

    Thanks for sharing @disqus_qkFlPoMLUZ:disqus

  • BKXtoZERO

    ES broke one of my trend lines, back tested it and are now stuck under horz resistance. All dressed up and nowhere to go. Time to tweet about China. Looking a little red.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/88592d2c352f788c28b48f0102902165d4eadbb5a3f7bd75b455175cb3e0225e.jpg

  • BKXtoZERO

    shorter term line broken (above)

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36
  • Sp00nman

    Intraday since the open just a triangle on the shorter time frames.. Been making lower highs and higher lows.. For ES that is.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Thanks Kudra ..
    JULIE

  • TomW4

    That’s what’s weird to me. The past few weeks, a little news about China, market gaps up. But today, news said deal with china nowhere near getting done then market doesn’t move??

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Tom IMO Govt Shutdown IMO more important. Wall St blowing off China as realizes all talk B.S. so far. My lens anyway
    JULIE

  • Sp00nman

    News for the most part is bullshit imo. Market is gonna go where the market is gonna go. Does news affect the market? Yes, but to what degree and being able to pin moves on any specific thing is tough.

    In Dec the market didn’t have a problem crashing despite tweets about trade deals. Now it all of a sudden started caring again in Jan? When the market is falling good news is bad news, and when the market is rising bad news is good news. 🙂

  • Darkthirty

    the news / noise follows the “market”

  • Darkthirty

    old saying, never short a dull market…..

  • evilasevildoes
  • evilasevildoes
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    EV They said Thursday was going to be important … I guess so !
    JULIE

  • evilasevildoes
  • Mark Shinnick

    HS reversal I suppose.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Out TVIX +2$ at 50.54 from today on 2R, sold yesterdays small hold from 52 on 0.5R

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    EV Love your “Cloud” Eastern T.A. superior. Unreal Renko ; Kagi ; Heiken Ashi etc ..
    JULIE

  • Jason13

    Stopped out with very smal profit…oh well. Flat

  • Jason13

    Selling coming in….

  • Sp00nman

    I don’t think a move higher is out of the question, I just think a larger pullback is due. Back to maybe 2560? I think a move to make a right shoulder is just too fast time wise. We gotta put in some more time and chisel out a higher low.

    As I showed in the volume profile below, this area was tough resistance on the way down. I don’t think we crack it first time on the way back up..

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SMH ($SOX) pulling back per chart and comment posted below
    JULIE

  • Jason13

    Unless some stupid surprise comes in …..short is the play, if you already are.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Interesting stuff here….. I just want to be out of the MKT at this moment

  • Mark Shinnick

    I’m short via labd.

  • BKXtoZERO

    probably should have stayed short with a trail…. just don’t have time to watch screen all day today. Any vote surprise and the bulls love to run

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys $BPSPX Eastern T.A. RENKO Nailed the turn Dec 26th .. Nails all turns very close JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/423a8a847c53b7ea7598f514d4eb3443a2937bbfa9adfc02b5f215e854566791.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    On Renko There is ATR I use (0.90) with a MACD 8,13,5 and also 8 and 13 ema’s Nail every turn Guys
    JULIE

  • StockTalker

    Yep, here comes my 7k ticket.

  • Mark Shinnick

    ….Could be very cool….a series of these sort of piecemeal re-openings only ending up paying for the most essential constitutional requirements. Everything about the Deep State is on the line.

  • evilasevildoes

    look at it with point and figure watch 30-70 distribution accumulation

  • evilasevildoes

    49 is irrelevantt really on $bpspx you need to watch it for turn up down but above 70 is bullish and fall below 70 bearish we are at turn point however

  • amity

    Sorry Mole, reading “And then a second time when I realized that almost every single candle
    on this chart represents one whole week since I left the U.S. and moved
    to Spain in April of 2012. Insane…. where does time go?” made me to post this link:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NEY4LxORCeo

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Will Do EV Thanks !
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Exactly EV I watch for 50 also and yes above 70 then galling below 70 is a sell signal. EV like minds as GG would say !
    JULIE

  • maxcherry
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    $BKX Pulling back .. Again we Bears Or whoever is short SPX want a bearish close below it’s 5 ema
    JULIE

  • Brishort

    Market weather update:

    No excitement on VIX at all.
    On 60 minutes, a sideways correction but on 5 min, overlapping retracement from yesterday’s low to this morning high.

    A lot of news outlet distractions on-going.

    Bottom line: market is coiling, energy being accumulated but direction is totally unpicked at this point.

    And even if my 60 minutes looks like unfinished business to the downside (as per Mole post above as well) the 5 minutes is basically saying stops could be harvested violently either side.

    Trading plan adjustment:

    Unless VIX gets impulse above 20 for short positions or VWAP regained on a strong zero, refraining from picking a direction.

  • Darkthirty

    was that bill murray?

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Brishort 60 min chart Lower cloud boundary at 2617 and I have a level 2616 Yesterday and today 2616 very important
    JULIE

  • BobbyLow

    Deep State my ass. I thought we were going to keep politics off this board.

  • Jason13

    This pig just won’t die. The selling on Zero dried up for now

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    BL On Board today ? USO overbought stalling at it’s 55 ema going below yesterday’s low on 30 min chart I may short it back to approx 10.50 Breaks below 10.50 then 10.35 target. Must first pullback JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/83661d8537b3c1c6c25801981c93e0eb769a4f10bc17d07ed89ddb1543f98767.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    I know Jason 60 min MACD 8,13,5 hovering on center line too ! They are trying to wear us out but we ain’t budging .. We know the game.IMO continue to watch $BKX and it’s 5 ema
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    Thanks all for inspiring charts and points of view all tacked on to Mole’s post wrapped in love…… is that too mushy?

  • Mark Shinnick

    Being ignorant of what Eisenhower was plainly warning about? Its existential …I wouldn’t trivialize it as mere politics. For example, out of control govt is a major justification in PM and debt markets.

  • StockTalker

    /NQ 4Hr holding the line and looks (bullish) ready to break out again.

  • BKXtoZERO

    SOX is giving a clue to the bears……

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    BK As Brishort says .. “Teamwork”
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Yup BK the resistance zone and it’s daily 233 ema per chart presented earlier today. You are on it BK
    JULIE

  • BobbyLow

    You have the right to believe what you want to believe Mark but you rarely give up an opportunity to throw out your right wing lunatic BS. This is one of the reasons why I left. Does this Govt Shut down affect the markets? Yes. Who is at fault for this and which side is correct on this issue should be discussed on a Political Forum board.

    Like I said before political discussion taking place here only pisses people off from both sides. I’m not the only member who feels this way.

  • Sp00nman

    I’m dumb BKX, could you spell it out for me?

  • Mark Shinnick

    I regret how things like this are habitually so easily politicized. The personalization and name calling is often a dead give-away. This really is a existential problem our markets are in fact discounting for.

  • StockTalker

    Will attempt to remain long to the EOM (APPL 1/30)

  • BKXtoZERO

    SOX Bears getting their asses kicked (I am dumb too!)

  • BobbyLow

    It might be getting close Julie. I’m caught in a spot where it’s not weak enough for me to close out my remaining long and not strong enough for me to add.

    BTW, I just took a look at the EIA report just for the heck of it and there was an expected small decline which became a small build instead. It didn’t appear to matter much. I think most of the time price can continue to go up for no apparrent reason other than which way the institutions are holding and also go down for the same reason.

    In any event, it won’t take a lot of downward pressure from here for me to flip.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Chief I posted this chart and comment last night previous thread concerning present volatility JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/5f23560da2b08532bc222be911fd4b5ee8e6839736c266295d42865dafc46f37.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    BL Something very interesting I read. The oil stock piles in Cushing OK 80% capacity is a benchmark. Above 80% represents a surplus and below 80% is a shortage. The information can be obtained i will look around when time allows
    JULIE

  • BobbyLow

    I guess calling me ignorant is not considered name calling. Really? LMAO I assume you can rationalize doing so because you are just trying to educate us. However, I can educate myself just fine thank you.

    Look Mark, I don’t enjoy arguing with you. I also think we get along in every other way except with what we’re talking about right now. When red meat like this is thrown out, I’m not going to stand by and say nothing. Not going to happen!

  • Mark Shinnick

    Interesting…twisting a good faith a-political question into something else. Its a tactic of distraction. Your method is showing. I submit this is a strong cognitive bias. Some people get their buttons inappropriately triggered…handling bias is one of life’s biggest challenges.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys Remember SPX A parallel channel drawn from the December 26 low A pullback the lower trend line of channel would closely intersect the daily rising 21 ema
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys SPX IMO two inflection point (1) 2655 January 18 gap resistance going above bullish (2) 2616 going below bearish
    JULIE

  • BobbyLow

    Wow! Your condescension is shining brightly. I strongly believe the old saying “The Pot calling the Kettle Black” is applicable to your last statement.

    Look Mark I could do this all day and you could too but it would be a terrible waste of time for all of us. I really don’t want this to escalate to the point of no return if we’re not there already. I think we just need to walk away at this point.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys $TNX A gap down today below a lower trend line. This should put some pressure on $BKX (Banks) and SPX
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hey Guys in about 10 min anyone gonna pour themselves a drink ? If I was at home other than work I would be pouring a glass of Merlot wine ! LOL!
    JULIE

  • strider

    Probably have a shot of Nyquil…been sick all week.

  • Ted

    I’m doing whole 30 – not allowed.

  • Ted

    Julie you may be to bearish. Americans are still buying their Lattes. LOL

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Get well Strider .. Drink lots of water and eat well
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Ted .. We will know shortly if they are buying the new AAPL I phones (very expensive)
    JULIE

  • Sp00nman

    Amen to that. When I get home I will have a drink. Cheers!

  • Mark Shinnick

    Talk about bizzare fads… I buy nice new 2013 Motos that do most of those same things for $40-$70.

  • Ted

    It will be a question of is it less bad than thought.

  • Sp00nman

    We’ll see how earnings look, but the SOX may be pulling back tmw if INTC’s move holds into the open. Futes pulling back AH’s.

  • Ted

    Intel down 6%

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPY Volume jack poop but than can be expected for a tight consolidation
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SP $SOX up into it’s daily 233 ema and resistance zone overbought
    JULIE

  • Mark Shinnick

    Humm…another personalization set; one-after the other. Not a good idea BL, most persons would rather walk away than confront bias…..and that’s the crux of the whole challenge. Nobody ever said it was EZ.

  • evilasevildoes

    that low vol is very concerning

  • Sp00nman

    Still makes more sense than $300 sneakers with a checkmark on the side that cost $5 to make. 😀

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys SPX Another possibility is a continued sideways move meeting the lower parallel channel and or meeting the rising 21 ema This is a common occurrence
    JULIE

  • Yoda

    So nice to see BobbyLow popping by. And yes great post Mole.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Well Yoda … Nice to see you too ! Have you been chasing green haired Yoda gals again ?
    JULIE

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    Nice – (Chinese phones!)

  • Yoda

    Just keeping a low profile. It actually helped in my trading.
    Current position long PM miners, oil majors and pot stocks

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GDX I am looking for just a little more pullback 19.80
    JULIE

  • BobbyLow

    Gee, I hope you wont send me a bill for all of your psychoanalysis Mark especially when you’re using your own bias and personalization set to cloud everything you’re saying about me.

    The main reason I want to walk away from arguing with you is because I believe there isn’t a thing that I can say that will change your way of thinking nor is there anything you can say that will change mine. Therefore, any discussion between us regarding this matter is a complete waste of time.

    BTW, I suggest that you try putting Aluminum Foil around your communicative devices to prevent anyone from the “Deep State” listening in. LOL

  • BobbyLow

    Thanks Yoda. It’s good to see you too. 🙂

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36
  • Jason13

    As promised, summary of my day with Zero and how it helps me so with timing my entries. I should preface this by saying that I plan my trades for the upcoming week only….especially with ES futures. I never hold ES over a weekend. Same for most markets. There are a few more obscure markets I will plan medium term trades for (working two right now- NZD/CAD and platinum (haven’t entered yet)) but generally I go week to week.
    My plan for ES this week was get in first thing Sunday for a drop early in week…everything was overbought…then got out with a profit (too soon though) and then look for evidence of a reversal (there were too many doomsday black swan predictions out there). So I did that yesterday seeing the drop as very suspicious, as Mole said, because it wasn’t backed by internals. I still think the market wants to get one more high but irregardless I’m not holding over weekend. Til tomorrow. But I marked up a screenshot of the Zero and my actions. Sorry for the chicken scratch. Hope it helps someone but I really can’t see how you can trade this kind of tape without Zero. Everyone can eventually get a direction right (50/50) but timing is what makes or breaks accounts in my mind. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c1a24d8adfd379ce251d5bf671d0dfe1e6928a4bd6659b006c925e29d4729462.jpg

  • Jason13

    On another note, I’ve never seen so much bad news on my Twitter feed. It’s hard not to just go all in short right now with what’s out there. In my earlier years, I would have and it would wipe me out. There still may be a massive drop to be had but I hate sitting on pins and needles waiting for it. Too stressful.

  • BobbyLow

    Excellent!

    I remember often times trying to jump in by anticipating what might happen instead of reacting to what actually happens. For some reason I thought if I didn’t get the first dollar of a move, I would lose out. I was soooooooooooo wrong.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Thanks Jason
    JULIE

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yeah, this is huge…frontrunning puts us in direct competition with the bots.

  • Ted

    The five hour candelsticks are getting smaller. If the bears can’t take the tape down on the open they are finished.