Intra-Day Update: Much Ado About Nothing

UPDATE 12:40pm EST: I have been quiet this morning as there was really not much to do except for daytrading the futures. After the initial rally we eventually dropped through the 858 retracement level, which is also close to the 23.6% fib line (863.37) on my chart. There is really not too much support below until the 836 weekly retracement line – let’s see if it observes that one, otherwise there is the 826 daily one.

So far it seems that the trend continues to favor the downside, although I am very cautious with predictions as this is expiration week. FYI – the flat scenario appears to be out of the race as we have dropped through 849 (the prior low of what Berk and I count a 4th wave down). Again, there are various ways of how to count the tape of the past few days, but it really doesn’t matter as long as we continue towards the downside.

UPDATE 1:16pm EST: We are nearing the 838.5 pivot on the ES futures and are touching the 350 pivot on the Yen, which is a bit overbought on a daily basis. I think we might get a reversal here – be careful out there, my obnoxious leeches!

UPDATE 2:29pm EST: I just calculated today’s long reversal levels for Berk. Seems we’re right at the 1132, which I give at least 60% today – probably more like 80%:

UPDATE 3:15pm EST: Okay, we just bounced off the 350 pivot on the Yen – it’s stronger than I thought today and is doing the Chinese Snake Wiggle around the 80% on my stochastics. In any case, we need to see this level breached, otherwise we won’t see a rally in equities. If you’re on the bearish side: NQ is dropping towards 1124 S2 pivot – as it’s leading today a drop below might (just might) bestow us with a sell off.