Let’s Not Overthink This

Yes, in case you are wondering, we are seeing clear signs of distribution or accumulation. Which one exactly it is – well, we can’t be sure and my crystal ball is still in the shop. However that said, I don’t see anything disturbing on the momo front – at least not yet. So as usual I’ll have to go with price:

Since we took this snapshot we’ve dipped down a little again and if you’re looking to grab long positions you may get a better entry near the 25-hour which currently sits near 2075.  On the short side it seems that the 100-hour should be our best guide at this point – it’s been tested and the 25-hour is also near. Anything between the 100-hour and 25 hour SMAs is limbo territory – feel free to grab positions but probably it’s best to use the extremes for inverse entries.

A drop below the 100-hour could drag us a bit lower but it doesn’t get serious until we breach the 100-day at 2057.5. I think from there the bears may have a real shot at dragging this beast lower. I’m sure all that sonds a bit confusing and frankly I can’t offer the perfect entry here either.

Or can I? Of course you may simply play the daily setup which is a hammer (thus far) – be long above it and short below it. And in between you can play the swings at your heart’s content 😉

GBP/CAD – taken to the woodshed, water boarded, and then disposed of – another great entry bites the dust. Bummer really but it was always experimental as the trend obviously remains to the downside.

USD/JPY – here we are in much much better shape. I’m advancing my stop as indicated and am prepared to hold this sucker through a possible short squeeze. This in fact has been my approach in the past few years – get a seat early (i.e. via the hourly) in promising daily formations. This in fact is how I got into the NQ early as well.

A few setups below the fold for my ever intrepid subs:

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You have been briefed – now have fun but keep it frosty. See you guys later this afternoon.

Cheers,

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