Looking A Bit Iffy There

As Europe is enjoying the last day of a four day Easter weekend I expected a slow session across the front. But there are subtle signs that we may be looking at a short term correction later this week. As I’m still on excessive coding duty with several hours of testing ahead tonight allow me to make this one quick and snappy:

For one we are pushing higher but DVOL is exceeding UVOL on the NYSEL today. On its own I would probably dismiss it for some Easter holiday monkey business.

But there’s also a divergence on the VIX:VXO ratio suggesting that market makers are lifting premiums a little near the money. Could suggest a down day or two.

There is technical context that would support it after all – the best one is on the YM right now near the NLBL at 16,384 – we have been pinned below it thus far. The spoos are looking similar but we have a few more ticks until we reach the NLBL on that chart. I think a long breach on the YM would probably negate the concerns mentioned above – definitely would have to go with price.

Wheat update – if you took that one then you’re over 1R in the green at this point – congrats! Put your stop at 670/75 and keep her in the running – unless of course we close above it today, in which case the campaign ends.

Crude is looking pretty good here as we’ve got an NR4 (narrowest range in four days), an IP, and an RTV-S. So pick your poison. Admittedly a long here would be my favorite as the downside potential appears to be limited.

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Cheers,