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Make Your Trading Life Easy!

by The MoleAugust 28, 2019

In my time here at Evil Speculator I have come across a considerable number of traders who seem to have a particular obsession with a handful of symbols they feel ‘most comfortable’ trading. This seems to apply in particular to indices and ETFs – I can point at a few traders in this comment section who seem to be focused on three or four symbols they trade on almost a daily basis.

I view this as a grave mistake as every market – without exception – goes through cycles which are either conducive or detrimental to your trading style.

Disclaimer: When it comes to currencies there is a point to be made about trading the top five USD crosses (AUD/JPY/EUR/CAD/GBP) as they represent well over 90% of all Forex trading volume. In the futures we have perhaps 5 or 6 contracts (plus their mini versions) which I would recommend to the average retail trader, mainly due to a lack of volume and the risk that can be incurred.

As you know I have been rather prolific about structuring one’s trading business in a fashion that supports your general requirements, your long time goals, your risk tolerance, your psychology, as well as your personal limitations.

That however does not imply that you should limit your trading activities to only a handful of symbols or a particular market. In particular if your favorite stock, future, or forex cross is traversing a market cycle that simply doesn’t offer an edge to the type of trading systems you favor.

The E-Mini futures right now are a good example. I haven’t been shy about bitching about the current HV sideways range as it has a tendency to eat retail traders for breakfast.

Compare that with gold, which has been on a veritable rampage since we went long near GC 1300 – one of our most profitable campaigns this year!

How long we waited for a break out move on the ZB futures. When it finally came it was difficult to hitch a ride as it barely has corrected since early this year.

The point I’m trying to make here is that looking at equities all day and worrying about direction in a sideways market is not only a complete waste of time but borders on insanity.

Of course just because the indices are screwing around sideways doesn’t mean there aren’t thousands of stocks that are well behaved – whether or not you’re bullish or bearish.

I look at a chart like ROKU above and I’d say the ongoing trend is rather clear, especially since the last earnings announcement. Most people look at a chart like this and feel a bit uncomfortable about ‘chasing it higher’.

Whether or not buying high fits your trading style is neither here no there, but there are several ways one could peel this onion. Ask yourself this: What are the odds of ROKU starting to completely nosedive in the near future?

Anything can happen – always – but I propose that the odds aren’t very good. So instead of buying the stock or buying a call spread we could sell a put spread instead and collect a bit of premium from a distance.

My general requirements for selling spreads are as such:

  • Symbol has to be liquid and offer weekly options.
  • No earnings within the expiration cycle.
  • Sell Spreads 35 to 60 calendar days prior to expiration.
  • SellΒ against the ongoing trend.
  • Pick a short option with a call or put delta between +/- 0.24 and 0.10.
  • Buy a long option about $2 – $10 further out (depending on strike sizes).
  • Risk should be between 75% to 90% – if your spread doesn’t match change the strikes or the width.
  • Don’t risk more than 0.5% on any position.

The ROKU example above is a 120/115 put spread and it offers a 0.78 credit.

Is that good or is that bad? How do we know?

Price = Risk

That’s the easy part. When it comes to options, especially given the volume and efficiency of today’s markets, price equals risk.

Wha-wha-wha-whaaat?

Let me explain. The spread above is $5 wide – my credit is $0.78 which means that my risk is $4.22. If you divide that by $5 then you get 0.84 which means my spread has an 84% probability to make me 1c or more. Now of course probability of touching doesn’t mean probability of profitability.

Plus remember the risk – if it goes against you it has the potential to rip your face off as you are risking $4.22 to make less than $0.78. Of course unless the market paints a YUGE move down we will manage our trade so that we rarely if ever take a complete loss.

Here are my exit requirements:

  • Winners: Buy back the spread once its price has dropped by 55 to 60%. Which means it’s trading at about 45% to 40% of your original credit. Yes, we are not holding this thing into expiration – once we got paid in silver we are outta here!
  • Losers: Exit spread if the vega of the short strike touches 0.57. That’s it – simple rule (see example below).
  • In between: Always exit the entire spread several days before expiration.

So how much should we expect to lose? That’s actually a lot easier to calculate than one might think. Instead of going nuts with our Black-Scholes calculator all we have to do is to look at our current option chain.

All we have to do is to look at the put strike that is already near or at a delta of -0.58 (negative since it’s a put). Then we just count one strike higher and we are pretty much near what we should expect if prices drop like a rock TODAY and hit your exit delta of -0.58.

If we buy that put spread TODAY we’re going to pay around $2.93 – it’ll be less as time passes and we can figure that out as well, but that’s a topic for another day. As you received a $0.78 credit this comes out to a loss of $2.15. Again, the odds of this happening are low – but remember that it happens at least 16% of the time.

Speaking of stock options – here are a few juicy symbols for my intrepid subs:

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About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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  • BobbyLow

    OK I don’t know where everyone went and I hope I don’t piss you off but I have to disagree with you regarding trading the same thing over and over again. Over the past 20 years, I tnink I’ve tried trading everything and everyway imaginable. I’ve found that trading one or two things over and over works best for me in all kinds of markets. I could go into a long explanation as to why but I’ll hold off for now.

    Another thing is that for me there are just too many ways to lose trading options. I hope I don’t get banned for saying these things but this is the way I feel.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Options trading isn’t for everyone. The main problem with most people is that they do not know how to manage risk.

  • bankwalker
  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    Market is a bucking bronco – unseating every which way – DAX ranges – similar to other indices

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/8bc88f5fa856b36e1c8ad53e51136f465594011ccf458e764dd4ba5898b72df8.png

  • ridingwaves

    what a messed up week this is…..from the futures recovery on monday to this…..thru me a big curveball..

  • BKXtoZERO

    Guilty as charged about trading a single symbol, but recent progress is that I started trading TMV in proxy to playing long as a coin flip to TVIX. I started into NatGas too. But in general I am a pretty narrow dude for sure.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Correct me if I am wrong but you have a small account, correct? I assume we are not talking about the NG futures, right?

  • BobbyLow

    It’s been crazy to say the least. I’ve had a few decent days in a row and for some reason became a little too hesitant and indecisive today. I stopped myself out after a couple of trades and wound up at a little better than break even for the day. I played it a little too close to the vest and left a lot on the table. Current direction is definitly up at this moment with kind of wierd price action with repeating cycles of 10 to 12 Point Range candles followed by a couple of small range candes on my 15 Minute.

  • BKXtoZERO

    yes…. no futures, UGAZ etc

  • BKXtoZERO
  • BKXtoZERO

    Trying intraday TVIX at 20.000000

  • BobbyLow

    That’s what Ms. Market does. I could even feel a little Bearish Bias trying to slip into my head and Ms. Market said nope.

    OTOH, if this stuff was easy “even a caveman could do it”. πŸ™‚

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EYottyI027o

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Doesn’t even have options.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Trying TMV 9.53. One of these should worlk πŸ™‚

  • BKXtoZERO

    Options just got me in trouble faster back in the old days. You know my old style…. imagine that with OPTIONS

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Hehe… well it all depends on how you manage your risk. For example a simple In/Out vertical spread clearly defines your risk and your upside.

  • ridingwaves

    340 pt swing today on ?

    nuts, I tell ya…..I just read about a dog walker who made 1 million before 50….

    I’m ready to just become a fishing guide…..got me a new fly pole, much easier doing that then playing with this quagmire….

  • Mark Shinnick

    A new local low, however.

  • HD

    Agree!

  • BKXtoZERO

    all I have is limited retirement acct framework. I needed to find you earlier in life before I blew out my trading account. I was a big put buyer…. ouch

  • Mark Shinnick

    Thing is…we remain equities range-bound cluster fuck; there isn’t much signal validity unless using a statistical loss-accumulation type system….or awaiting breakout behaviors. Bios are in fact still down-trending but only modest slope.

  • BKXtoZERO

    I would like to see no more than 2994 (center bollinger) and probably slight stop run over last candle https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/fcd429e9b32808a2405bc0223846a4838145c6f859ad684422c49ba33b519957.jpg

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hi Chief I trade individual stocks actually more than the indices showing many charts and setups How can you go wrong ROKU or VEEV etc.When I see a set up UNG or USO I will trade those Thanks Chief for the post
    JULIE

  • ridingwaves

    bio is bearish momo via Chande and RSI…needs a final wash out me thinks…..
    the recovery on fake tweets Monday makes me believe this market is being managed a bit here before tariffs to take effect…big boys come back next week…..

    I guess we will know reality at that point…

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    UNG Yes Have remaining 1/2 position long and moving stop up from B/E on remaining position. Now busting up thru 50 sma and exactly at 55 ema
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    I booked most of profits, as I am never surprised when they get taken back. It’s a hair trigger world.

  • BKXtoZERO

    I booked most of profits, as I am never surprised when they get taken back. It’s a hair trigger world.

  • BKXtoZERO

    congrats. I missed the latest push… nice work. I still doubt a big move starts yet but I am a serial boat miss-er. I have a general preferred long term set up and if right and trading it, it works really well but I fail to adjust when it doesn’t happen…. like NUGT at 14. Jeeeeez

  • BKXtoZERO

    JNK looks on the verge of wanting to break out and up, very manipulated looking chart, was solidly bearish, then each milestone marker was attacked with gaps, they kept it hanging and clawed it back, and to see it now looking bullish on daily is a piece of engineering.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    BK Be careful GOLD COT Huge net short position Commercials COT Keep an eye on COTTON as there is a very large net long position Commercials
    JULIE

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    You bet.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Ouch… well I already made myself clear on that front.

  • BKXtoZERO

    3 years in a row solidly profitable SIR!

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    BK JNK The breakout in mid June was on strong volume. Yes about to breakout now but looks like volume could be suspect.
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    but WHO…. in their right mind is rushing there? small investors?

  • Mark Shinnick

    The bull theory being that nothing of the risks of the 2006/2008 period exists no matter the debt and derivatives of today being multiples of that time.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    BK People trying to cut a fat hog in the ass.CBND is a better read.Unreal the rush to corporate bonds. The Bond Market is 7 times larger than the equity market and they will clobber the equity market like what is occurring presently
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    BK The market presently IMO is based on hope and corporate buybacks.Hope that a tariff settlement will be reached and earnings will increase. This could be as good as earnings get.Corporate treasurers on their buybacks are the worst market timers of all There is one positive and that is the inverted yield curve Bla Bla The most talked about inverted yield curve in history You know what that means when everyone and their little brother talks about it and plastered all over the news.The SPX could breakout to ATH’s 2 clues to watch GG’s $BPSPX and $NYSI breaking above it’s 10 sma My 2 cents
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • BKXtoZERO

    Head and worthless shoulder pattern this week, Monday, Tuasday, Wednesday rt here

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG Your $BPSPX which mine is similar and $NYSI above and below it’s 10 sma (need both) are great for 401k’s which Cyd and I use for in and out of ours. Again use both as they compliment each other.and unbelievably accurate
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    yeah, use sparingly like salt. Some daytraders just want the next 30 minutes of hot gossip!
    πŸ˜‰

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys I have mentioned this before one of the biggest scams in the market.Corporations are allowed to buy their stock (corporate buy backs) BUT did you know that they are allowed to short a competitor Yup that’s right. When they know that their industry and business is going to have problems they can pour the coals short their competitors.Their financials have a heading income from investments Unreal !
    JULIE

  • Ronebadger

    This whole August business just looks corrective … like a giant Bear Flag. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/785eedd27cab7637d136921c4688ba1061b601fc35fa44597856d9b44f7c11ac.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    RB Unreal the manipulation occurring. DOW Futes down 350 and comes roaring back to open 100 higher on several occasions in this consolidation Bear Flag.
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys SPY going up into it’s 60 min 55 ema approaching overbought 60 min with volume diminishing
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX I have 2887.02 as an important level to close above
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    if ya’gottem – smoke’m.
    πŸ˜‰
    Phillip MOrris
    https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=PM

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Gotta light ? LOL
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys Remember holiday this weekend The market should stay positive of course thru manipulation as not to spook the consumer who will gladly spend money over the holiday.
    Happy and Safe Labor Day Everyone
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I don’t smoke.

    can’t afford it. LOL.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Neither do we GG
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/figures/m819a2f1.gif

    I’m surprised the FED.GOV hasn’t raised THAT.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG If you do things right Livestock can be rewarding. The weather affects crops but not livestock.Buying feed in bulk and making sure livestock is healthy is the way to go farm wise. My husband enjoys it as it’s a hobby for him. Hogs are easily maintained
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    Game theory aspect. Not a political post just observe the threat of recession and how much the news is now openly calling for one. One political side would like to see the MKT drop. Not a stretch that there are big players on both sides and that one side is trying to drop the MKT while the other may wind up squeezing them and the whole meme being spread. Battle of wills.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Stopped out of today’s tvix minor ding 20.0000 to 19.78. Still holding some from 16.5 area

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    BK The best time to short is when both bulls and bears are worn out and beaten up
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    A clue GG Is checking the up volume compared to the down volume within the trading range. It appears the down or selling volume has the edge
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys What Wall St is pulling off is all this talk of yield curve inversion and recession talk is to get the bears to pile on short so they can initiate a massive short squeeze.
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I’ve never waited on an elevator this long.
    do these dam things work!?
    πŸ˜‰

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Remember GG If they can’t take you out they will wear you out. Patience GG as we can wait them out
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    The adage “Strong stocks get stronger and weak stocks get weaker’ Checkout CMG Today a pullback to test a gap and support and buyers step in. Our Chief is correct and look at strong stocks in lieu of the indices. As mentioned previously I follow and trade stocks with excellent relative strength specifically IBD 50 There are some great one’s IBD 50
    JULIE

  • mSquare

    Buying some $TEAM here. Have been waiting for a dip (no no specific news) and think $137s a good place to nibble. Stop $134-$135s a bit below today’s lows

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TEAM&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p36284223577

    edit: an IBD50 stock at #1 in its category

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Good one MSquare nice uptrend with excellent relative strength These jewels are out there
    JULIE

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I thought Labor Day was on Monday.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I tend to agree. I still remember that whole Fiscal Cliff crap.
    didn’t mean squat.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    You the man MSquare IBD 50 Me too ! Have been for a long time IBD 50
    JULIE

  • mSquare

    I think the ^TNX & 30-year making new lows is significant. Yield curve stuff is indeed being over-hyped.

    This time is indeed different (shudder !) with a lot of -ve rates globally and Trade Tariffs between world’s big economies

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Yes Chief Labor Day is this coming Monday Holiday action now taking place
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    MSquare I am watching XBD closely Broker Dealers Market needs their participation
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    XBD Watching for an advance to approx 260 then a failure to short
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    Holding bond short TMV, out of DRV (small ding) holding small TVIX that I am up on from 16.5, expecting maximum reading on bullshit meter heading into holiday weekend.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys Bring up $UTIL What are the UTES telling us ? Everyone Have A Great Rest Of Day
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • BKXtoZERO

    I hope so. He he he.minimal tvix…max bond short

  • RoastBeeph

    Yeah, they puked but recovering now. No idea what caused it.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb
  • BKXtoZERO

    nice. Some day I can imagine stocks and bonds heading down together but not there yet. TO ZERO!

  • BKXtoZERO

    Great write up on TLT and SPX by Sven at Northmantrader: https://northmantrader.com/2019/08/27/yield-me-this/

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    same ole same ole- China – it’s not even a confirmation of trade talks – but a discussion to see if they can start trade talks – machines don’t understand the nuances – well playing the range so soon will be selling as we get near the top of this range action –
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/8d4cb4e3063168b59bedd9a48d573c48d0dbeb9634b8228233b0e4ce489e1f8f.png

  • http://www.quemango.com Herb InCebu

    ROKU has been an incredible IPO but I don’t have the level of
    understanding in these option spreads. I generally only do stocks and
    only momentum from the IBD 50 list or at least stocks that meet the
    criteria for the IBD-50. So ROKU would not meet my rules but I am sure
    the list would kick ass for a skilled options trader provided a good
    market. I don’t take any stock breakouts if the market is not trending
    up because I have had a much higher fail rate. I am weak on futures too
    so when I trade them I stick to ES, NQ and rarely YM never RTY, CL or
    the softs.

    Here are the current Investors Business
    Daily – 50 if anyone wants to look for option setups and I’d love to
    see some just to learn.

    KL PAGS TEAM VEEV

    OLED HEI PAYC PCTY

    CHGG MTZ EPAM CPRT

    EW UPLD LULU CDW

    V LHX EDU HXL

    FLT SEDG REXR ESNT

    RP SYK EPRT QIWI

    ULTA ADBE PLNT STNE

    TPX ACGL CMCSA CTRE

    BRO HUBS FTNT FNKO

    CMG NMIH DFS ARES

    STOR WDAY SYF JCOM

    TTD AFYA

  • http://www.quemango.com Herb InCebu

    I wonder if this is why they have to do all those reverse splits πŸ™‚

  • http://www.quemango.com Herb InCebu

    Double top like on the 4 hour but I doubt it will work out that way in the current environment. .

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    There will NEVER be a China trade deal – other than a paper over the cracks deal- this “war” is more than trade – and they will never reach a deal that has the necessary conditions each side wants –
    The market could be in tweet mode for a long time

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Agreed.

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    Interesting CNBC talking about the luxury good sector slowing and they had an ANAL -yst , hwo said it would be good for the economy as they take up the slack..
    Not so sure – found this https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/1e68f07e0f5c1a253ac2ec1d63898336d2737ee92f733a15781e053c7e9999ae.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb
  • bankwalker

    approaching that horizontal green line … again …

  • http://www.quemango.com Herb InCebu

    SOXS might be a nice play on the next leg down. SOX has a bear flag.
    Same with NOW – worth watching and the software stocks got hit hard since July.

  • http://www.quemango.com Herb InCebu

    BitCoin sliding off the plate maybe breaks 9000. I would get some GBTC maybe as a proxy ETF.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Brilliant…such a small% of the economy will therefore support the rest with their demand. Talk about scraping the bottom of the barrel of confidence arguendo.

  • BobbyLow

    Once again we had a 21 Point Gap on China news between 3:00 AM and 3:15 AM this morning EDT. I have no idea if we gap and camp, gap and crap or go higher from here. I held my nose and got in at 7:15 this morning at 2916 then sold quickly at 2922.25 right after the temporary rise at the 9:30 AM Open. That’s only 6+ Points but I’ll take em. This is like tip toeing through a minefield. πŸ™‚

  • Mark Shinnick

    There’s a lot of truth out there….but while millions are kept in stasis with the central bank hijacking of economic cycles, non of those retired Communist goons is being taken to the woodshed by anyone.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Ronebadger
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    that’s not a bear flag.

    https://i.redd.it/9mitmx1hymyy.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX Nothing good happens beneath a declining 50 sma SPX must regain it’s 50 sma and 50 sma must turn up That simple Guys
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    UNG Yes higher highs and higher lows Keep moving stop up Now at 55 ema with a MACD center line test Initial target has been reached so watching very closely
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    ..I did pick-up some XLE, just in case this kind of (long) shit happened
    πŸ˜‰
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/9e314b8112a702be3af4a58af190c43d8d696689eb7cc480393ebef86f150f79.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    after all, HYG hasn’t exactly been plunging.
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=HYG&p=D&yr=1&mn=4&dy=0&id=p55035196916

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    TLT IMO Watch 146.16
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    L TVIX 17.8

  • BobbyLow

    Oil’s been rising over the past few days helping Oil Companies and Indices rise as well or it could be the other way around with the indices helping oil to rise. The cause doesn’t matter because “ours is not to reason why. . .” πŸ™‚

  • BobbyLow

    Scalped another 5 Points on the long side. This thing is like the “Energizer Bunny” or more appropriate Energizer Bots.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HvoE9mAgNv0

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    BL USO Crucial inflection point and test dead ahead 89 ema Down trend line and Cloud with a MACD center line test
    JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/f2aa5b537797911fc0bb2b2603b01fab74ef407d5fc828a28a9e26dbc7fbd619.png

  • Mark Shinnick

    I’m presently targeting 17.3 for buys, but that becomes a measuring for the 16.30 area for a real good reaming into the bear camp.

  • BobbyLow

    I took Oil off my radar again so I could increase my size on /MES Futures. This keeps my risk/reward in line. The way the market’s been going lately, I don’t want exposure to any swings. This allows me to go to 100% cash at 4 PM everyday and look forward to pre-market the next day.

    Won’t say this method will be forever, but for right now I’m liking it.

  • BKXtoZERO

    90% of my entries are day entries, some even shots in the dark, that I take back off. Anything can happen at any time. It looks like the plan is up, and into resistance and perhaps through, but that odd failure pays big.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Again The Powers That Be are not going to let the market tank before a Holiday so the consumer will spend over the 3 day holiday especially with back to school shopping and football tailgate parties etc. Go Montana State Bobcats !
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    I hear ya BL esp SPX below a declining 50 sma As stated below SPX must get above it’s 50 sma and 50 sma must turn up Have a nice Labor Day BL
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Didn’t work the last time you said that.
    Unless you can gather more than 10 Holidays and give a statistical result?….
    not going to buy it!!

  • BKXtoZERO

    ooot 17.68 heading to 1940, underside of broken trend support

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    before you can reply.
    I googled it. confirmation bias! GG wins!

    https://www.cxoadvisory.com/calendar-effects/stock-returns-around-labor-day/
    =P

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    What’s tomorrow GG ? It’s Friday ! Checkout all Stats for Friday The Bobcats play the Lumberjacks in Bozeman September 28 We will be at the game Go Cats !
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    coming back up to test broken support line…. for LKGB or rip up through? cycles down into Sept.
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/3e3b20b57846c9639dd6c662892eeacf68d2b722f45968f2f6bd10378506f201.jpg

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    bah!
    “panem et circenses”

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    rip. I just need an excuse to put old foegy songs on.
    πŸ˜‰
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-r679Hhs9Zs

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hong Hong is the “Black Swan” Continued unabated protests are going to have global ramifications
    JULIE

  • HD

    2929 is a Fibonacci pivot.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    it’s another Greek tragedy. some fire bombs and smoke on the TV, so rich greedy bastard whales can scoop up some more. remember Zimbabwe!!
    πŸ˜‰

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG Speaking of panem Cyd test drove a Porsche Panamera in Denver She is not going to buy one maybe a Cayenne someday
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    4 doors? what is she, middle aged with kids?
    πŸ˜‰
    just get a nice, gently used head turner.
    https://photos7.motorcar.com/used-1986-porsche-911-carrera-9871-17938254-1-1024.jpg

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    if you’re gonna drop big $$$ on a fancy VW, might as well be a classic.
    LOL.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG At one time Cyd had a 912 I believe it was a 1968 That was really neat
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    HD I have 2925.05 on a positive weekly close Let’s see Friday’s tomorrow close.
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    the 15 min, ugh – so disgusting – I can’t post it.

    The hourly, golden line for another win.
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/1b7a0de16d763612e57b48ab4639a11d6010c6da01c75b7d4714ac34e6a0d0d9.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX Weekly chart The weekly 55 ema has held as support and weekly RSI holding 50
    JULIE

  • Mark Shinnick

    Heavy car…but they really rip for their size.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Mark The Cayenne is spendy but they hold their value Panamera Cyd test drove one just for fun.She is in the market for a new car and wants a car that holds it’s value.The Cayenne is nice
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    your mileage may vary. Snort.

    “The V8 engines have a major lubrication problem in sub-zero temperatures: they don’t get enough oil at start-up to #5 to keep the rings from scraping the lining off the cylinder. Repeated extreme-cold starts with sludge impeding oil flow erode the cylinder wall, evidenced by an incremental ticking noise which eventually renders the engine unserviceable. When word of early engine failures got out, nobody wanted the prospect of a $30,000 engine rebuild. Cayennes dropped in value about that much.”

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys Again CMG bounces off it’s daily 5 ema The restaurants are on fire Guys keep an eye on VEEV an IBD 50 darling.that has broken above a down trend line and about to break out above the daily cloud MACD has crossed above it’s signal line and center line with two nice bottoming tails yesterday and today There are some great plays individual stocks in lieu of the indices
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    burrito, BigMac – you say there’s a diff?
    ;-D

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=MCD&p=D&yr=1&mn=4&dy=0&id=p17276436682

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG We use Mobil 1 in all our vehicles. Cyd too Cold starts are not a problem with Mobil 1 Synthetic fluids in transmission too 50 below zero and instant pressure. I know how to change the oil and check all fluid levels.I spaced out a gasket once on the bolt my only mistake.I even changed the oil in the tractor once
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG I just texted Cyd and told her to get on the blog and read the article that you posted about the Cayenne. Thanks GG as it’s good info
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    well, that may be an old article. but thnx, just playing Devil’s Advocate.

    30K is a LOT, of piggy farming. Bacon.

  • Mark Shinnick

    That’s why I wait for 10-15 years for things to settle-out. Can never feel right about ever buying new.

  • Cyd

    Thanks Mr G I have a 1971 Chevy PU 4X4 flat bed and a Ford Explorer. I want to trade in the Explorer for an upgrade and thought about the Cayenne all wheel drive which is great for MT

    Cyd

  • Sp00nman

    Ya, european cars all depreciate fast new. They do make great deals used if you pick reliable models though. I avoid Audis, BMW and Mercedes if you avoid the turbo/SC’d models are usually fairly reliable (expect for the M and some AMG models).

  • Cyd

    Julie’s husband installed electronic ignition in the Chevy. It’s almost 50 years old but runs great and looks good too Very clean unit and a lot of people want to buy it. No way selling it

    Cyd

  • Mark Shinnick
  • BKXtoZERO

    See… I mentioned I was laughing a few days ago at how easy things were and said it was time to fade and go the other way. Like Fast Eddie. Bert told him he was swimming in glory and looking for an excuse to lose. Thanks Bert.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Sounds like you need a Subaru for the Winter.
    https://www.pinterest.com/pin/111182684529971537
    πŸ˜‰

  • Cyd

    I have looked at the Crosstrek I have time and in no hurry to buy.
    Cyd

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    good. all wheel drive is nice, but since when do they plow roads every day? πŸ˜‰
    https://i.ytimg.com/vi/ixjCFqiQjvA/hqdefault.jpg
    ground clearance is a plus.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    ..and make sure you have some nice hooks to yank you out of the snow bank. Grizz can do THAT job.
    πŸ˜‰

    https://performanceparts.ford.com/images/part/full/M-18954-RA.JPG

  • Cyd

    I like those front lights too
    Cyd

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    sure. but I’ve read that yellow is better in snow.

    (no yellow snow jokes, pulease!)

  • Cyd

    Now that you have mentioned yellow. White and yellow are the two safest vehicle colors. I always drive with the headlights on Julie does too
    Cyd

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    yep. I do see some young-ins driving their cool jeeps now with crazy red/blue/ you name it colors facing forward. very illegal, where’s a cop when you need one!?

  • Cyd

    The cop is going around giving Julie tickets for illegal parking LOL She just has one tho.I am going to buy some BAL now above 5 ema and a double bottom
    Cyd

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    good luck. BAL has been in a slinky downtrend for months.

  • Darkthirty

    cervisiarius et pediludium

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    time check. ZZZZZzzzzzz.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    UNG A nice move today up 2.58% with corroborating volume Possible 20.50 target
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    Congrats

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Thanks BK Watch USO per chart shown below. Either a breakout or failure setting up
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • BKXtoZERO

    That is the case with every symbol rt now

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    The overall pattern a possible bearish descending triangle that Cyd pointed out recently. So very possible USO short setting up We will know soon BK
    JULIE

  • http://www.quemango.com Herb InCebu

    ULTA ugh, and that is why you might not want to hold through earnings.

  • http://www.quemango.com Herb InCebu

    is that the 200sma?

  • http://www.quemango.com Herb InCebu

    If stocks were to break to the upside and skip a healthy correction we could see a real shit storm in 2020 and maybe fuck up Trump. Given how nutty all the opposition is and recalling how the market and real business activity accelerated after the Clinton machine was put to rest, we may find 2020 interesting.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Darkthirty

    2970-2975 still viable..

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • mSquare

    Ray Dalio Is Losing Money Because Everyone Else Is Too Stupid To Realize That We’re In A Recession, Says Ray Dalio

    https://dealbreaker.com/2019/08/ray-dalio-is-losing-money-becasue-everyone-else-is-wrong

    The Wizard of the Westport Woods needs all you Najarian-watching morons to listen the f up.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    two large candles with opposite tails, interesting – I will remember that one.

    if you are a closet bear, today should be making you *sick*.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/b3d13e2ebafef293775d8a07435b7e37843b7d6e795ccf3fee252076efe08fbf.png

  • Cyd

    Mr G We got the $NYSI above it’s 10 sma today for the final indicator to go back into our 401k’s Now need SPX tomorrow to close above Julie’s 2925.05
    (1) MTUM Heiken Ashi above it’s 8 ema and 8 ema above 55 ema
    (2) $BPSPX above it’s 8 ema

    (3) $BPSPX Renko 0.9 a bullish crossover with 8 and 13 ema’s
    (4) $NYSI above it’s 10 sma
    (5) SPX daily MACD 5.34,5 above signal line

    (6) SPX daily RSI (9) above RSI (30)
    Cyd

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    a real compendium.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    Keep your truck.

    My Dad use to drive around in one, with me.
    I would stand up to get a better view, I think I was Five.
    One time he hit the brakes and I flew forward.
    Hit my throat on the dash, right above the radio.
    Good thing I was young and bouncy, and did not break my throat.
    I didn’t stand up, after that.
    -GG

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    needless to say, I was much happier with my dash in High School!

    https://i.ytimg.com/vi/gAMYFjoaZ0M/maxresdefault.jpg
    ps. that seat vinyl will kill you in PHX Summer.

  • Cyd

    It’s a 4 speed and it took me a little time to learn to drive it with Grizz’s help. It has a granny speed.To change into 4X4 I have to turn the hubs manually.When I drive it there is always a note on the windshield someone wanting to buy it.It’s a 3/4 ton Grizz put racks on the sides as it’s a flatbed Nice truck your dad had.
    Cyd

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    Tell Grizz you need a replacement truck for towing those 3 pigs to Market. LOL. These guys are in Idaho. I saw one at a car show in Tempe, AZ.

    https://www.rtechfabrications.com/

  • Cyd

    Older trucks in excellent shape are great. Julie at one time had a 1967 Chevy Camaro It was red.We had some neat cars when we were younger. I had a 1968 Porsche 912 . Julie also had a mid engine Porsche
    Cyd

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    mercy. sounds like the richie rich crowd.
    πŸ˜‰

  • Cyd

    They weren’t new Mr G We had jobs in college and worked right after graduation.I have never bought a new car Looking to possibly splurge and buy a new one now Grizz says the best buy in a car is one that is 4 – 5 years old and has been maintained. I just feel like upgrading from my Explorer which I have maintained

    Cyd

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    FORDS = Found on road Dead. get rid of it immediately.

  • Cyd

    I really like the Cayenne but the article that you posted now I have doubts.I have looked at some hybrids but they are too small and seem overpriced
    Cyd

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    trust your gut.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Par for the course. If you are a bear you expect death every day. Anyway pattern wise anything is possible. A move above 2950 doesn’t mean bull mkt to me.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG Everyone is looking for a continuation of the down trend.A bullish close tomorrow Friday above 2925.05 and back in our 401K’s We will change on Tuesday.We do our due diligence and “Pigs” get slaughtered We have 50 of them now and ordered 31.The hogs are Grizz’s dept
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    could be a “B”. Never say never…. tough to bet on those though. It does look more bullish with the size of the base built since Aug 5th