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Markets And Volatility
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Markets And Volatility

by The MoleSeptember 17, 2019

By all definitions the past two years have been pretty challenging to many retail traders and not surprisingly the exhaustion I sense in the comment section is palpable. A lot of what has transpired can be attributed to a marked increase in realized volatility which over time has contributed to a now permanently elevated baseline in implied volatility.

I’ve covered that phenomenon in my various long term market updates but today I would like to take a step back and hopefully squash a number of misconceptions about market volatility and also address how it may affect your trading reality.

However, people talk about ‘volatility’ all the time and often mean completely different things. So before we move any further we need to establish a clear definition of what volatility is and how we can measure it. To that end let me to walk you through the basics.

Realized Volatility

First of all we need to differentiate between realized volatility (or often referred to as historical volatility) and implied volatility.

Realized volatility is easier to understand. It represents to the magnitude of the actual price movement in a particular financial instrument over a defined period. So what RV expresses is the range of the price swings in that period.

Let me give you an example. If the S&P goes from 2,800 to 2,900 in a week then that represents an advance of 100 handles or 3.6%. And if it then goes from 2900 to 2950 the week after, then that represents an advance of 50 handles or a 1.7%.

Okay, so far so good. Now if the S&P goes from 2950 to 2975 the following week then that’s another advance of 25 handles or 0.8%. Finally the week after we have yet another advance of 5 handles from 2975 to 2985 or 0.3%.

By the way, mathematicians, financial analysts, or quant traders don’t ever talk about drops or advances, they simply refer to them as signed returns. And signed of course means that the number can be either positive or negative. Keep that in mind for later.

By calculating the percentages we basically create what is called ‘normalized returns’ or ‘percent returns’. That allows us to measure all variables in a comparable metric.

Alright, now let’s look at the series of percent returns: we have 3.6, 1.7, 0.8, and 0.3.

You may have noticed that the returns are getting smaller, and although the S&P has gone from 2800 to 2975 in four weeks, it’s doing it in ever-smaller intervals. If we calculate the difference between each consecutive return (the percentages) then we get to -1.9, -0.9, and -0.5.

This is only one among many ways of measuring realized volatility, but in any case it clearly is dropping. So this exercise may give you an idea why we bother to look at realized volatility in the first place.

If we plot this series as a graph, as shown above, then we quickly grasp that the vehemence of the rally is diminishing and that perhaps a correction lies ahead.

Implied Volatility

In contrast to historical volatility, implied volatility aims to look ahead. It is often interpreted as the market’s expectation for future volatility of a stock and is implied by the price of that stock’s options.

Here “implied volatility” means it is not observable in the market but can be derived from the price of an option. In simple terms, implied volatility or IV is determined by the current price of option contracts on a particular stock or future.

It is represented as a percentage that indicates the expected one standard deviation range for the stock based on the option prices. And for that reason that number is unsigned, meaning it’s always a positive number.

For example, an IV of 25% on a $200 stock would represent a one standard deviation range of $50 over the next year.

Okay, so what does ‘standard deviation’ mean?

In statistics, one standard deviation is a measurement that encompasses approximately 68.2% of outcomes. When it comes to IV, one standard deviation means that there is approximately a 68% probability of a stock settling within the expected range as determined by that stock’s option prices.

In the example of a $200 stock with an IV of 25%, it would mean that there is an implied 68% probability that the stock is between $150 and $250 over the coming year.

And why does any of that matter?

Because options essentially came into existence as insurance contracts, and when the future of an asset becomes more uncertain, there is more demand for insurance on that asset.

When applied to stocks, this means that a stock’s options will become more expensive as market participants become more uncertain about that stock’s performance in the future.

When the uncertainty related to a stock increases and the option prices are getting more expensive, IV will increase. This is sometimes referred to as an “IV expansion.”

On the opposite side of IV expansion is “IV contraction.” This occurs when the fear and uncertainty related to a stock diminishes. As this happens, the stock’s options decrease in price, which results in a decrease in IV.

In summary, IV is a standardized way to measure the risk premium (vega) charged on the options of a stock.

In part 2 of this series we are going to delve into the inner workings of the VIX index, its history and how it came into existence, and most importantly what exactly it attempts to track.


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    If you are having issues with the Zero indicator please log out of amember and then back in, which should fix it. We have been attempting to upgrade to PHP7 but until a few hiccups are sorted out we had to revert to an older version.

  • Ronebadger

    Tuesday Morning Purple Trend Lines and wave-wanking…I’m just bored, I guess… https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/abe3a0835952c08312f09fca0e533ca6dc54f9420865909504b84c1b960a7fe9.png

  • bankwalker

    Thank you for the excellent post Mole.

  • bankwalker

    Gasoline prices at the pump have held steady where I live … not even a 1 cent move.

    I look at that as a good time to short /RB as the 17 cent advance was most likely contrived.

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho
  • bankwalker

    big divergences on both your MACD and RSI …

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    “Your mileage may vary”
    http://fuelinsights.gasbuddy.com/

    I crack me up.

  • pepe

    SQ rejected $61 resistance area at $60.70, needs to break $59.31 to flush. Holding USO puts from yesterday – looks like another high volume day. Bought FCX calls on pullback to $10.25.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    More coming – we’re just getting warmed up.

  • bankwalker

    /RB now down about 5%

  • ridingwaves

    I agree, even before coffee…..

  • pepe

    Sold USO puts, price target hit. I’ve no idea where oil is going now but yesterdays pop and the following price action / volume seemed extreme.

  • HD

    as far as the OPEX rules, M big down day, this does not feel like a T A T though.

  • HD

    And /CL…… effing widow maker. All those unrealized gains, unsigned returns.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • HD

    and here’s the OVX, Oil VIX, day 2. Note it wasn’t 77 before the wild move…. To Mole’s post though, this move in IV did eff with the options. Gave ZERO predictability in price though.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/66007c1f41fb0d260d28c5aac683160b8a578d55f51fd4fc42fbbb6d9f8a2f57.png

  • bankwalker

    it didn’t eff with the options … it is a by-product of the options …

  • http://www.linkedin.com/in/sharondsessions Sharon

    Thanks. That is one of my chores for this week. Making a trip to Virginia Beach,Virginia to collect my last belongings that are still there and driving them and me home to Dallas. Trying to make a budget, so I dont run out of money for gas on the way home Sat arrive Norfolk airport and rent the car – yuck on that price and Mon get back home to Dallas. Tues turn in car and then I am done. Whew, will be glad when this trip is over

  • ridingwaves

    are they worth the effort and expense…..if memories yes, if material?

  • HD

    OVX doesn’t affect USO option prices?

  • http://www.linkedin.com/in/sharondsessions Sharon

    yes, also 5 yrs of tax data to retrieve. which is necessary to keep.

  • bankwalker

    No … it’s the other way around.

    From the CBOE website:

    The Cboe Crude Oil ETF Volatility Index (“Oil VIX”, Ticker – OVX) measures the market’s expectation of 30-day volatility of crude oil prices by applying the VIX® methodology to United States Oil Fund, LP (Ticker – USO) options spanning a wide range of strike prices.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • ridingwaves

    someone sure likes miners today…NUGT +10%

  • ridingwaves

    you only need 3 years

  • HD

    kind of chicken or egg came first. I guess I don’t see it as predictive, it’s totally reactive-like the VIX. So at 77 the options have a chance of moving way more than at 43. I don’t claim to be an expert on option pricing. But I do claim the IV indexes are not predictive.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    that’s gonna open a can of worms.

    from the iRS horse’s mouth.
    😉

    https://www.irs.gov/businesses/small-businesses-self-employed/how-long-should-i-keep-records

  • http://www.linkedin.com/in/sharondsessions Sharon

    no auto to get, just storage and rented a van

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Good. trailers have a whole set of risks.

  • ridingwaves

    I doubt if she is in situation 4,5, 6…..

  • bankwalker

    I agree with you to a point, however they can be somewhat predictive but they can’t predict an unpredictable event.

    They are computed and derived from the actual sale prices of options as compared to their theoretical value. They measure how much people are actually overpaying for the options.

  • http://www.linkedin.com/in/sharondsessions Sharon

    actually, since taking my social security, i have not had to file for a few years. except this year, my new employer ignored my sending them a federal tax exempt notice and will have to file to get my tax taken out back. some employers are really bad on doing that. sloppy

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    oh, she’s a 6. Fraudulent is all over her face.
    Sharon Madoff I tell’ya.
    😉

  • ridingwaves

    the short boat is losing steam now, current and tides are now slack ….its already down 50%
    better shorts available….start eyeing auto sector…..

  • Darkthirty

    Rooster came first…….

  • pepe

    What Monty Python said about the parrot: it’s just resting… 😉

  • http://www.linkedin.com/in/sharondsessions Sharon

    It is the IRS that is fraudulent to it’s core. Had an IRS auditor prepare a fraudulent return for me and push me all the way to the IRS tax court for $4,500 dollars owed. I was fortunate to know about the Dallas SMU law school’s tax and legal advice for lower income people and their team of student lawyers BEAT the IRS auditor to pieces and the Tax court accepted my return over the auditors and that showed that I only owed $ 100.00. SMU charged me $25 for their services.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    “Cursed be he that perverteth the judgment of the stranger, fatherless, and widow.”

  • pepe

    Bought XHB Oct puts. Low volume hold. Price target $41.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • ridingwaves

    audit is all about being honest and having right paperwork…..I’ve been there but came out clean….most IRS folks do extension and file 10-15…..direct quote from auditor…..gives you more time, less probing…

  • pepe

    Looks like $61 is the line in the sand and was rejected quickly this morning on low volume. Targeting $51. Now patience.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    How’s everyone? Speaking of realized volatility…. a lot of barbed wire tape this morning.

    Not liking this.
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/7f5a86c473af7b28ec80aa00330e4e560a7f3dfe6547205169220c6127ae44b3.png

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Then you shouldn’t buy puts – you should buy a vertical spread mate.

  • http://www.captainboom.com/ captainboom

    Busy watching the classes I bought, since the market is quiet. Love this Mole quote: “Successful trading is nothing but the process of making rational, high probability bets, over and over again.”

  • pepe

    Thanks – a new territory but I’m currently studying up on the more advanced options strategies to trade smarter. 🙂

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Theta burn is going to kill you with Oct puts. Sell a 42 put against it and you’ve got yourself a vertical.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Which isolates you against theta burn. You would sell the entire construct as soon as it’s below 42.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Yup – that pretty much covers the process.

  • pepe

    SQ now in the red right at declining EMA 5. Volume on track for a slightly above average day. My bet is that $60.70 was the kiss goodbye for at least another leg down. But I might be wrong.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Waiting on the FED Sir…. Holding VIX and waiting for any pop to add

  • Mark Shinnick

    Anything above 59 looks pretty good for this one.

  • pepe

    The $60.70-$61 is now such a firm resistance so any try without solid volume might fail. But we’ll see; today’s close could be telling. A red close would look pretty ugly on the chart. 🙂

  • HD

    Whipsaw Wednesday on deck

  • Mark Shinnick

    Its coverage for fraud.

  • BKXtoZERO

    BTW, great post. Thanks, This one is a saver.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    More to come!! 🙂

  • Darrell Osgood

    BTW, if you took physics in school, you might recognize Mole’s example of price still rising but more slowly as a case of position-velocity-acceleration. Price (position) is obviously positive. Price is increasing, so velocity is positive, but the rate of increase is slowing down, so acceleration is negative.
    Now, one step further – I thought Mole’s pattern was going to be 2800, 2900, 2950, 2975, 2987.5, 2993.75, increasing by half as much each time. Instead, there was a dip there at the end. That is called “jerk”, the rate of change of acceleration. Physicists on Wall Street used polynomials (among many other tools) to calculate what usually happens and identify where the inflection points are. That is part of how they taught the bots the algorithms. This is the easy part. factoring chaotic humans into the mix is the hard part, but collective human behavior can still be quantified and its not that hard if you have terabytes of data.

  • Ronebadger

    “…it’s pining…”

  • pepe

    “No, ‘e’s stunned!” :p

  • BKXtoZERO

    Jerk….lol. A price jerk sounds about right.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    “Price (position) is obviously positive. Price is increasing, so velocity is positive, but the rate of increase is slowing down, so acceleration is negative.”

    Hold that thought for when we cover gamma in options theory 😉

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    all I learned was get a bigger parachute, or boil the egg.
    😉
    https://i.redd.it/gav4q3a52tn21.jpg

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • BKXtoZERO
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    no worries. “you’ll make it up, with volume”.

    https://www.nbc.com/saturday-night-live/video/first-citywide-change-bank/n9701

  • ridingwaves

    55 pretty tough support to cut thru…bounced last time…. but that is what makes a market

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb
  • bankwalker

    probably just rolled over to the october contract.

  • pepe

    Something is brewing. Either we break through $60.70 with high volume or drop back down to the $50 support zone. Might happen this week.

  • Cyd

    Mr G Are you on board ? I picked up the Cayenne this morning at 11 am.They knew I lived in MT and they completely winterized it for me.Flushed and filled the coolant for – 66. New windshield wipers , heavy duty battery cables , engine block heater , oil change and a set of winter tires Very nice of them at no extra charge. I am certain that Grizz had something to do with it as he talked alone with them
    Cyd

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Yesterday, I was commuting home. A firetruck with lights ran by, so we all pulled over. Guess what was staring at me? You guessed it.
    It must be a sign.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/cf573bb1d4f030ed57cbddc81f62032e7aba22f9e8c72e351f5e4465ee5fe954.png

  • HD

    we have another 2:00PM FED announcement today? Sheesh how many of those set ups have we seen this year? All have done exactly the same thing.

  • HD

    I bet that’s a maintenance nightmare. Stick w the F150’s

  • HD

    I still want to know how much one of the ‘pro’ options trades pays? How much time is my capital at risk?

  • HD

    These guys explain it pretty clearly in just a few paragraphs. Doesn’t sound like they don’t care about direction though. That’s the very curious part Mole talks about.

    https://www.thebalance.com/the-greeks-trading-with-negative-gamma-2536618

  • http://www.quemango.com Herb InCebu

    Trendless Fed day.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • bankwalker

    The initial reaction after the announcement is usually a false move.

  • http://www.quemango.com Herb InCebu

    I expect to die from the Chinese water torture. Drip, drip, drip…

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX Still holding a lower trend line
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SLV Holding 16.69 Must get above 17.13
    JULIE

  • ridingwaves

    I think that is less of a worry now, China is conserving water….
    Now they just program you to be a hacker…..

  • ridingwaves

    Average RO is about $900

  • ridingwaves

    well, Powell was an investment banker ya know….

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36
  • Darkthirty

    Straddle……….

  • HD

    Fade……

  • Mark Shinnick

    Ok… some sort of “off” switching is needed for the tvix positions. drv trending as a crude example of an analog for that switch was one idea, but there are many others to help close that window of tvix exposure.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Any problems with the diesel’s injectors?

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yeah… for the MB’s outrageous repair costs with fewer factory-trained mechs it results in resale price collapse I await because I can fix ’em.

  • ridingwaves

    MB had it made when it was the luxury car…..too many choices now, heck even Kia builds one now…..Lexus is by far the best in class

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Why would anyone buy a Cayenne if they can pick up a Macan?

  • HD

    CL= widow maker.

    $55 is a Fibonacci number.

  • HD

    I’ve never ran a diesel. Too expensive.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Roger that on Lexus…plan to do that someday.

  • Mark Shinnick

    150’s really are hard to beat.

  • HD

    That was a sneaky rally. Didn’t even see it near $20. I’m almost back. Lots of shiny coins.

  • Cyd

    HD PEN hit target It’s a dog A bearish close below 5 ema and today’s low gonna be a nice short
    JULIE and Cydhttps://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/050e6f6e6a9215ad3c03fd6041c3f2153e992b82e81ba38fb8acc9e8073588cc.png

  • Cyd
  • HD

    The magical VIX is 15 and the SPX has a 15 point range. .05% this week. Wait for it.

  • Cyd

    I prefer the larger Cayenne
    Cyd

  • pepe

    SQ is flirting with $59 again having rejected $60.70 on average daily volume. If $59 fails the elevator is going down to lower 50s. If not, it better retry $60.70 on high volume.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/976018c82675f3c68e06ce0e62312330c1b5fd6ca454e6413428922126af3f8a.png

  • pepe

    Looks ripe.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Time for the daily bubble bath,
    what a snoozer – unless you’re FDX or FOSL.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/048a1c77c3686232c37a7a6fe699e1fa4358d6f76445787a02db697889d1b41c.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I doubt there are (FDX) quadruple bottoms, at $150.

  • Cyd

    SQ Must get above baseline @ 61.03 Now below conversion line @ 59.32 https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/97ff78e5e43f07f0616c4ceb75266c646fc181a4beefabab95861ccb9b7bd7b5.png

    JULIE and Cyd

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    two last kisses good-bye?
    that’s whacked.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/d07ae969e5a2363340ed59c1ef972f03622ad4c2d9b9f2737d1041d7f660eac8.png
    (*I’ve held FDX & UPS over the last year, but currently have no positions)

  • bankwalker

    fasten your seat belts …

  • pepe

    I’m not familiar with Ichimoku but reading up on the indicator now. 🙂

  • Cyd

    We use 8.21.55 in lieu of the standard 9,26,52
    JULIE and Cyd

  • BKXtoZERO

    L TVIX day position 13.2. This may be another FED Fart

  • Darkthirty

    Eat beans for lunch, you can have a bubble bath tonight….

  • Darkthirty

    BANG! BOOM!

  • HD

    SPX roundy 3000 trades on the FED. Gotta be quick.

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    keep out till the dust settles –

  • HD

    How much did SPX drop last rate cut?

  • HD

    !!!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    yeah, I just peeked.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    GG to the rescue!!
    Cyd, stay off any white hoods. LOL

    https://youtu.be/Mmh-ew1swD4?t=233

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    NDX 100 –
    wedge (bearish) breakdown – green area OR
    Testing breakout of triangle (red area) – for support and move up (bullish)
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/5dadb5bf3246b138d63a45520b4511b064bf440193e8dd24673ac9ff22083d7c.png

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    AAPL – not really going lower – proxy for whole market?

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yeah same here with some drv signal. Nicely-behaved action, actually.

  • Cyd

    $NDX Tomorrow watching lower trend line , 21 ema and support
    JULIE and Cyd https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/cff786d18b3a1fe17bf8ff5b0bd87f1c3cf0dc0ef2c5f5195a833c61518a4d93.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Mark Shinnick

    If the bus is for real, somehow I don’t think its going to give much chance to get on board.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    If the bus is real, me thinks smart money positioned themselves the last 3 days.

  • Cyd

    We have been gun shy SPX this rally. A pullback and bounce at either support matching the 21 and or 55 ema’s will go long our 401K’s
    JULIE and Cyd https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/f40782354a375319d4b897849b3eb7c3cbdbfae852c3df77bb60e858952e573a.png

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    which way is the bus going though?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    above my pay grade.
    LOL
    ask Mark.

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho
  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    Might be a short fast ride..

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    watch RSI 49-50

  • Mark Shinnick

    Drv and other restraints again tvix could not retain their signal to hold tvix

  • BKXtoZERO

    Ooot with small ding tvix

  • Cyd

    Today’s intraday reversal off the 13 ema
    JULIE and Cyd

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • HD

    Ladies and gentlemen, whipsaw Wednesday

  • ridingwaves

    Why would you expect any different

  • ridingwaves

    Fed interest rate reduction targets vix specifically

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • BKXtoZERO

    Well they sure are hammering the vix.

  • ridingwaves

    I had one just pass me by on the 101 coming out of Olympia towards Portland

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Time Check.

    call out to SPY.
    ‘300’

  • ridingwaves

    Fear is removed by reducing interest rates, puts become a liability as companies can borrow so damn cheap and somehow float, I’m not saying that’s right as many are zombie companies oh, so even though you are correct and going short the low borrowing costs and free money makes it so dangerous

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Who is ‘they’?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    OMG – BK violated Scott’s 3rd commandment.
    he he.

  • Cyd

    Mr G Could be a handle formation on a cup developing since the late July dump
    JULIE and Cyd

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    a few hours ago, I would have agreed.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yeah…broke its local support…lotta systems got nailed.

  • ridingwaves

    some characters from a Stephen King book

  • Mark Shinnick

    The ubiquitous they and them figments of our virtual reality. labu hit its support quite well today.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Whoever the jerks are that spoiled my plan today. Boy Scouts of America out doing good today I guess. Creating a hammer candle.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Unhealthy attitude and you know it. There are no jerks – there are only traders who are in the winning or losing side. Accept that as your reality or you will live your existence in frustration.

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho
  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho
  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    AAPL: LONG term monthly – possible path ahead.. new highs look likely – but RSI looks like diverging v price (NEGATIVE) ..
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/4b348846825a3e733ef3ddd6f5a8ed6e38fd51ebb666f40650ad7774f0574bf7.png

  • Ronebadger
  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I had to remove the previous post – sorry about any inconvenience.

  • pepe

    Next leg down for SQ. Target $49.82.
    XHB hanging onto a thread.
    DOCU breaking out but on low volume.
    Sitting tight.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    The Zero is looking positive but unless VWAP can be breached I would be cautious:

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/ec2975aecd702d43978b3c308f5b64d953351ff9cb0e673be056b5b7c530a222.png

  • HD

    Remember when OPEX was a good day to trade?

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Actually I don’t! 😉

  • Ronebadger
  • mSquare

    @Mole – What hapenned to latest post regarding Vix? This seems to be and older post from 2 days ago?

  • pepe

    $COMPQ bounced off the EMA 21 on the 1% drop.

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    Non – news?
    CHINESE DELEGATION HAS CANCELLED ITS FARM VISIT TO MONTANA, OFFICIALS ARE RETURNING TO CHINA SOONER THAN EXPECTED: MONTANA FARM BUREAU

  • BKXtoZERO

    Julie must be offended……….

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    the pigs at the farm to be visited, were missing.

    *now* we know where the piggies went.
    😉

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Yeah I had to remove it – sorry.

  • pepe

    SQ: Battling $57. Below there is nothing until $50.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Pepe TLT bounced of 89 ema now going up into 21 ema
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    do I look like Pepe?

  • pepe

    Thanks for catching that. I had it on my weekly but not daily. 🙂

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    BTW, disqus is really acting up today.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Shortside only.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    No Chief On sidelines.. Sounds like you are feeling better Chief Glad you are
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX Today another bounce off 13 ema like Wednesday
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    NetFlix? oh come on!
    https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=NFLX

    People sitting at home during the next Recession?…YUGEHHHHHHH.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    You’re welcome.
    80 to 55, always ask yourself – “where would short covers come in and buy back”?

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Chief The Great Depression moonshine made in Appalachia Kentucky ; Tennessee ; West Virginia supplying the East Coast during Prohibition.More moonshine was made in the Oregon Coast Range Mtns than Appalachia and supplying the West Coast Mid West and Southwest.We have located sites where we can start up operations if need be.The Oregon Coast Range perfect water and cover LOL!
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Saw it on the History Channel that Oregon produced more moonshine than Appalachia during Prohibition.
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    PEN Today showing relative weakness now sitting on it’s 21 ema
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • pepe

    Two scenarios. If the market holds I’d say in the $50-55 area but if the market drops significantly then below $50. The lack of significant upside volume is telling.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    That is a good rule.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I can see you now – cooking up moonshine in some hidden shed somewhere in the territory.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Things are slow around here – but you know what?

    they were last year too.
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/a1562c188fabeb7abff650abe8c79a02de0a49e3b0919b4db09425298df6e697.png

    edit: being an analytical kind of guy, Mole – here is your data for picking a ‘rest’ window.
    just a thought.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    interesting!

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    As I mentioned the other day, this market has been very difficult for a lot of people. Remember when I used to post three or four setups per day? These days everything seems to be running in circles and it’s been tough on the blogging front, that much I can assure you. Will do my best to keep everyone’s spirit and skills up but I will need everyone’s help.

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    Can you superimpose the market on that graph?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I can imagine Julie cooking up shine. and I can imagine Cyd drinking it.
    Here’s a picture of Cyd’s grandmama back in the day.
    Excellent dental considering the times! LOL. strong teeth.

    TLT, close the gap & just reverse Ivan on us, WTF!?
    Cheers.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/a1b6bf099fc4e02ede4535297577c0db8ae2e7fd164435206c29a9b000a4d89f.png

  • Cyd

    Mr G nothing like a good stiff one .Drink that is LOL!
    Cyd

  • Ivan Hrusovsky
  • Ronebadger
  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Indeed – although my SPY data only goes back to 1993. Once RPQ is up and running we’ll probably retool it to grab data from IQFeed and the SPX directly. That should be fun 🙂

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/014cd99648e9ae007e908b6d0a6fcc97e7fd5eecc19790cbf2cb710d06396a18.png

  • evilasevildoes

    discis was hacked in Jan…I missed that fact change passwords

  • Cyd

    What we had lined up for trades this past week panned out but we did not trade (1) Long TLT off 89 ema (2) short EXAS (3) short PEN into 55 ema and resistance levels It’s a new week and now back from Portland
    Cyd

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    pics!!

  • Cyd

    Hello Mr G Snow appearing higher elevations which is not unusual for this time of year.Going to cool off in the valley shortly. Fall colors anytime now
    Cyd

  • Cyd
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    bah, I meant the car. 🙂

  • Cyd

    It’s too dark outside right now
    Cyd

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    we have hot drinks ready. lows in the upper 60’s!

  • Cyd

    I have another picture of Julie when she was accepting an award for swimming years after high school. Mr G she holds some state records in swimming that to this day have not been broken
    Cyd

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    check her toes for webbing, she may be part fish. would also explain why she falls into rivers. her fishmates are calling.

  • Cyd

    She can really motor in the water but hasn’t swam since the onset of her hand condition . Her hand looks great and she is now doing physical therapy. I could never compete with her in the water but basketball another story
    Cyd

  • Cyd

    Montana in the winter can get what is called a Chinook which is a warm wind from the north.When these occur you can be outside in Jan. in a tee shirt. They can last several hours

    Cyd

  • Cyd
  • http://www.quemango.com Herb InCebu

    long spike done on PEN in the after hours.