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Mole’s Market Momo Musings 1/2019
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Mole’s Market Momo Musings 1/2019

by The MoleJanuary 22, 2019

Emotions are running high wherever I look, and I am not excluding myself as a year full of volatile gyrations have left their mark, whether or not one is willing to accept it. From the onset of Evil Speculator my main mission here has always been and will continue to be to keep you guys ahead of the tape by providing you with as much actionable and objective information as possible. And there is a lot to talk about today, so let’s get to it.

Let’s get the easy stuff out of the way first. Clearly the current rally is slowing and we are starting to see red candles as the bears are once again starting to assert themselves. My trail is now at 2.2R if that 100-hour SMA gives way today then we are probably looking at a stop out.

The long term panel actually does a bang job to confirm what most of my momo analysis below seems to be suggesting: We have now reached a medium term line in the sand which will most likely determine the theme for equities for the rest of year. A lot more about this below, this is going to be a comprehensive post.

The volume distribution panel shows just below what I consider no man’s land. If you squint a little you can almost see the guard towers and German Shepherds patrolling the area πŸ˜‰

Anything > ES 2725 is bull territory while anything < ES 2650 is bear territory. Given the overnight session we are officially still in bear territory as the first attempt to breach it has failed. Which IMNSHO comes to no surprise as a ton of bullish momo was expended to get us this far. Once again a lot more about this further below.

Here’s the volume ratio between NYSE up and down volume over the past three sessions. Based on Friday’s signature we either are looking at a blow off top here or the bulls are ready to launch a massive squeeze.

Although I’m still holding long I’m swinging toward the blow off top scenario as I’m seeing too many momo measures scrape the upper ranges. It’s possible they become embedded for a while and if it was 2016 or 2017 I wouldn’t be worried. But clearly we are not in the same market phase anymore, so caution is warranted.

Now let’s get to the good stuff. The VIX panel shows us both the VIX:VXV (a.k.a. the IVTS or Implied Volatility Term Structure) Β and the VIN:VIF (ratio between the two major VIX components) at support ranges.

If you look at the VIX price panel it becomes clear that we are approaching what I would consider the IV line in the sand roughly near the 17 mark. A drop below that will be required in order to give the bulls a snowball’s chance in hell to get back into the saddle as opposed to being dragged uphill with one leg stuck in the stirrup.

The SPX:VIX ratio was strongly lagging in the final hours of the Friday session and thus it’s not hugely surprising that we opened lower last night.

But we just scraped the surface – please grab your decoder ring and meet me in the lair:

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Before I forget it: I’m moving my trail on USD/JPY to break/even. I could tighten more but am more than willing to risk 0.5R in profit for a potential squeeze higher. Admittedly the odds are 50:50 at best.


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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  • HD

    Here’s the last 5 full moon. How many times do you have to see a reaction before you AT A MINIMUM monitor it, certainly not mock it.

    Interpret as you see fit.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/337946972b459c953d67d544b7c569c8c50c2cb5f7018186674e64622ecf2f13.png

  • HD

    So on Friday we ‘anticipated’ a CIT based on OPEX, moon (it’s in the comments) and today we are ringing the register.

  • Brishort

    Hello HD,

    You might like the following which quantified as well its approach.
    http://www.theidiotandthemoon.com/moontrading.html

  • HD

    very cool! TBH I don’t need some statistical value to tell me what my eyes can see clearly πŸ™‚

  • Darkthirty

    That shit doesn’t work! What’s next? Tea leaves? Chicking bones? : P

  • Brishort

    Time to revisit that MOLE ZB recommended trade from a few days ago.
    The 18th may have been all it had as a retest.

    Keep on the desktop! Correlates with emotional short term reaction of market participants if equities indexes weaknesses continues

  • Darkthirty

    Awful quiet in here today……………..

  • Darkthirty

    Was EMT for 28 years, anyone that says the moon doesn’t effect people hasn’t got a clue……

  • Mark Shinnick

    HolyMoly….You’ve practically seen it all many times-over.

  • Darkthirty

    A lot of bizarre shit goes down on a full moon…..

  • Darkthirty

    Stockcharts is froze?

  • HD
  • Darkthirty

    That dude’s got disco fever

  • BKXtoZERO

    TVIX chart above it’s down channel line…. VIX itself was a bit more rounded https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/2e3999f2ffd3b352f36113ffbc648786ec129370ac290e905e5dfcc3b23e37ee.jpg

  • HD

    The last minor wave was a 77 point hit. We can discuss the characteristics of that wave if you want to.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Sold my entry from 48 at 48.4, keeping entry from 45.7 area, ES has mild divergence on 5 min chart

  • BKXtoZERO

    Sure! I’d love too…….

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hi HD As posted on a previous thread The breakdown from a rising wedge can be fast and furious. V shaped rallies too far too fast
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    HD $TRIN 5 sma – $CPC and $VIX were at levels associated with pullbacks. Also SPX going up into it’s confluence of it’s declining 21 and 55 weekly ema’s per chart posted.Again let’s see what happens. Last week I was prepositioned short for a pullback. Your chart showing moon cycles is an eye opener
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys The Banks All too important $BKX as shown previously the daily 89 ema has precluded all advances since the October decline. IMO Watch the Banks JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/af8af6f885e55ff1d411130c49d2db112b644ac8cc0bd3ab2310040c80692d70.png

  • BKXtoZERO

    BKX to…. what was the target?

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Zero BK ! LOL!
    JULIE

  • HD

    Hi Julie. Thanks for all you do here. I appreciate it.

    That hit came on the tail of what we were discussing last month. The round number 2400 and EOM rally… lol. How much crap
    Did we take for that set up too. Sheesh.

    Have a good one.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Thanks HD Let’s all have a good one !
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    ES has 2 underside trendlines on this recent rally that I drew in which come to around this area
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/dbefd7b13ff2abae280ba7a166e9ea9b797adc397fd867621e5bf16ce4912e2b.jpg

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    XOP possibly pulling back today referencing chart and comments previous thread JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/1e2be4068ea900313a8509c98f1ffefade6f89059e34d041140633e765d1ec8a.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Not only is $SPX going up into the confluence of it’s declining weekly 21 and 55 ema’s but also it’s daily 89 ema. The volume SPY Friday IMO was associated with OPEX which normally increases. The SPY volume since the December 26th ramp was dismal and decreasing. SPX Bearish below 2618.75
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    $SPX Guys Let’s see if the daily 5 ema approx 2632 holds. Will add to existing short if not.
    JULIE

  • TomW4

    Hi Julie – thanks for putting the SPX level when you say the 5 EMA.

  • Brishort

    Mole, very timely timed post this morning on the momo update.
    All we need to know about the big picture was there early this morning.

    Now all we need to know is that VIX is strongly pushing and now above 20.
    We can now go back to your post above and change all the “might do A if B” with the right answer as I believe VIX back above 20 is the clearest most important point of all.

  • evilasevildoes
  • Brishort

    $RTY: 1460 just gave way and should have been a significant support.
    1440 next support.

    How fast we get there will be the tell of the tale for the days to come.

  • Brishort

    By the way got long ZB, took the trade a bit earlier.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    You are most welcome Tom I have a busy rest of day meeting with clients very shortly Trade carefully. Always remember overbought in a bear market (my assessment) is dangerous
    JULIE

  • Brishort

    Short indexes, long ZB until the close.
    With trend day alert, it’s about putting the trades on and not looking at the screen (or looking but not fiddling with positions) either until SAR 10 minutes is reversed on ES or until the close.

    BTW is it just me or Interactive Brokers just went about 30 minutes ago to overnight margins requirements for all clients? (I.e. IB is applying risk management of its own client’s margin’s risk exposure?)

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hi Brishort $VIX 16 – 17 associated with floor previous two Bear Markets which I feel is relevant. Our Chief also pointed out same. Thanks Brisort for your comments and contributions
    JULIE

  • Brishort

    Thanks for your contributions also!

  • Brishort

    Zero confirming down move on all time horizons and volume pick-up on futures indexes seem to be confirming this move will have legs.

  • StockTalker

    Long /NQ, at support.

  • Brishort

    GG is MIA.

    Please come back GG and ignore Scott!!!!!

    Although it could have been well intentioned, it was absolutely unwarranted and the delivery lacked finessed and clearly does not seem to have achieved any bullseye.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    You got it Brishort Again a breakdown from a rising wedge can be fast and furious. That is why I prepositioned short late last week
    JULIE

  • Brishort

    Thanks for the post. All views are important and allow us to help our analysis.

    VIX would have to confirm soon if this is indeed support.
    NQ crossing the cloud down on all my charts time increments up to 1 hour

    Thread carefully and take care.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Scott blasted me too Brishort. All is good with me BUT anyone talks to me in that manner again using extreme profanity I am gone ! Offend me once (profanity) .. forgiven .. Offend me twice in that manner (profanity) I am gone. You get more bees with honey than vinegar
    JULIE

  • Brishort

    I know. Kudos to you and BKX for showing up this morning.

    I am actually surprised I wasn’t blasted because I did fit the ill profile described as well.

    Glad to see you around this morning. Resiliency is a necessary trait in all spheres of life. You demonstrated it, so did BKX.

    Thanks for your company on this blog.

    I have known Scott from this blog since a long time. I further purchased his products as the first batch of people when he had something to sell to support him.

    I believe he is excellent in what he does, but his tough love was not suited for the blog as he assumed too much facts without having any means to verify them and therefore properly massage his message to the recipient.

    His post was a mistake, but not a fatal one. His market insights and disciplined trader approach remain above average if not stellar.

    And although Mole sometime complains about us, we shows up with new relevant posts all the time and this is what makes us come back as well.

    Life is too short, my own editorial to say the page should be turned on this episode.

    Mistakes were made, debrief now occurred, opinions will always vary, but teamwork remains our best asset around here, so hopefully we keep seeing you around for a long time!

  • Darkthirty

    CME had a glitch last week, had me on margin for some reason….

  • Mark Shinnick

    First long labd’s in a while… very tight.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Thanks Brishort
    JULIE

  • HD

    He blasted everyone and in the same sentence said he missed the entire 10 year bull market!?!?

    Ok market guru.

  • Sp00nman

    Well said Brishort. Don’t let some posts bother you Julie (and others), this is the internet after all. I’d like to think Mole and Scott are coming from a good place with their constant banging the drum to follow a strict system. Ultimately we’re all adults and no one can decipher exactly what you’re doing based on some limited posts you make. I wouldn’t take offense personally, but that’s just me. The statement that you’re going to “blow up” or whatever seems more like hyperbole to me, and is just a warning.

    I’m sure “traders” have come here thinking they’re gonna get rich quick, only to have blown up, and I think Scott and Mole are trying to prevent that.

  • Brishort

    Zero update:

    Hourly firmly negative.
    VWAP ultimate move back and resistance

    Downtrendline on 1 min panel and 2635 vincinity remain strong resistance.

    A lot of energy spent on the Zero to get back to positive for a meager 6 ES points.

    In light of trend day alert with strong signal, beware that VWAP may not be regained, and if regained, may hold as strong resistance in current very short term down movement. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/59235a6877968a3533b49c9e03be0213f9a8efcd73652f46cf8bee6808e1f199.png

  • Sp00nman

    Ultimately the zero back to zero could signal and end to this downmove (and a retrace is coming)? Could be bears just got tired and are done for the day. Peak to fall we’re down ~50 handles in one day, with an ATR ~50.

  • BKXtoZERO

    His critique was that his charts could find an excuse to be bullish or bearish. To me that is what we all strive for. We all need 2 ideas… In EW an alt count… Whatever your lens or system you better have 2 plans. GG charts capture major inflection points very well. His envelopes dont6 predict the future nor do any ones charts…. But they give you a very informed look at what critical level may be next.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Honestly I pretty much ignored this one and invested ZERO emotional capital even thinking about it.

  • Mark Shinnick

    In this universe of trends-within-trends, decisionpoints, even the most-objectified tools, we still have all the other mental stuff actually controlling the trigger. It gets to be a bit much, at times, I think for anyone. Taking a break at least helps sort things out.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Did he blow himself up or something?

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    As everyone knows I follow the “Hedgies” as there are over 10,000 hedge funds. Last Friday the hedgies sold into the gap up and closed below it’s open a slight negative divergence SPX but more importantly $XII. For those unfamiliar with $XII it is an index of the top holdings of institutions.$XII is not traded and therefore not subject to manipulation Also I follow $XVG which is the Value Line Geometric Index. I compare $XVG with $SPX on a relative basis which IMO extremely valuable with clues
    JULIE

  • Mark Shinnick

    He mentioned the matter of money.

  • BKXtoZERO

    I missed that. Thanks

  • Sp00nman

    With that said, like you said, it looks like a solid trend day down. NYSE U/D volume is quite negative, A/D lines negative, so path of least resistance is sideways/down. I’m still hanging on short from below.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SP I follow the same. Really valuable following $NYUD and $NYAD on a 30 min chart
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG Things are cool ! Miss Ya GG ! Please come back …. !
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    BK Salad Bar ! LOL!
    JULIE

  • Sp00nman

    BKX, you might wanna remove or edit that screen capture w/ account info..

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    EV BA … A Bearish evening star at our target … Love it EV … Plunge down thru it’s 5 ema
    JULIE

  • Sp00nman

    Here’s an interesting post from someone I follow on twitter. Very interesting charts. https://northmantrader.com/2019/01/22/the-freak-chart/

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SP Big fan of trend lines which I draw on charts presented Thanks SP.My husband always liked “Northie”
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    That’s it for me today. Client number three is here ! Everyone Have A Great Rest Of Day !
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    Just a blip so far. An interesting blip but nothing on daily chart yet

  • Darkthirty

    ES VWAP 2640

  • randomuser6789

    There is a lot going on here.
    Mole and Scott know their stuff. Their way is not the only way, but soooo many people have come and gone over the years. Most have blown up and gone out on a stretcher due to trading without rules. Most do not kill it the way JULIE has.
    There are also cultural differences at play. Scott is from Australia, Mole from Austria. Both have a no BS style that is very blunt and can sound offensive to some of us americans on the blog. Likewise, TTP is from UK. He is befuddled by how people have taken offense at his constructive criticism.
    Cultural differences. He sounds like a jerk to some, but I don’t think he is trying to be a jerk. Give everyone the benefit of the doubt. Trolls will be banned. We have seen that many times.

    All of that said, This is the best trading blog you will find. Mole and Scott are some of the best traders you will meet who are willing to talk to you. Don’t waste it. Don’t blow them off.

    Just sayin.

  • Ted

    I’ve read all the comments and just wanted to add my two cents. I believe Scott meant well, he even criticized himself. I think his main point was that we all should come up with a system that has an edge. Doing so takes the emotional aspect out of trading. i remember he was very helpful to BobbyLow. I believe he personally coached him. Bobby if you are out their, congrats to you and your Patriots. Personally I hate the Patriots. I’m a Giants fan and we will always have your number.

  • Brishort

    If the trend day alert is to pan out, which it looks likely, we should end the day at the low without retracement.

    Since today would be considered a large move, tomorrow would be a “non-trade” day as shenanigans retracements are to be expected.

  • Brishort

    20 points instant pump on NDX, all shorts closed.

  • TomW4

    do you know what caused it?

  • Brishort

    No clue, but move is unusual.
    Not standing in the way. Looking for the event….

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Brishort SPX .. The decline from 2675 looks impulsive. Hedgies… GVIP breaks down thru lower channel with increased selling volume Bulls take notice
    JULIE

  • Darkthirty

    You know who owns this “market”

  • SheilaBear

    Larry Kudlow on CNBC just denied meetings with China were cancelled. Market jumped on the news. Trailing stops on my shorts all hit

  • TomW4

    weird that hasn’t shown up in the cnbc website

  • Brishort

    This crap of govies officials….they need to stop unscheduled talk.
    Thanks for the reply, didn’t know what caused the 20 NDX INSTANT jump…

    Back to TA:

    VWAP not regained, but clearly short term foul play happening.
    How many times can they spin the China story?

    I don’t really care either way. The charts are much more reliable than any officials bullshit talk. Hence why I never watch TV during the trading day.

  • Darkthirty

    Tight 382……see if that’s it

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Brishort You read the tape only just like me I have SPY VWAP 60 min @ 262.85
    JULIE

  • Sp00nman

    Yep.. fake news to make the market go higher. A-ok. Fake news that makes it drop, and you’re behind bars.. lol Shorts are evil Brishort. :p

  • Ted

    Larry didn’t get the memo!

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Right on SP .. Been that way since the button tree !
    JULIE

  • Brishort

    All the indexes 10 min SAR that acted as previous stop are now threatening to be reversed again.
    Will take the trade if it comes up.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Brishort Today’s bearish close below the daily 5 ema and lower trend line IMO signal to short Also the decline as mentioned from 2675 appears impulsive Again very bearish below 2618.75 My lens
    JULIE

  • Darkthirty

    DOW hit VWAP ES made it to 2636 so far

  • Ted

    The SPX struggled a bit to break above 2600, that level should have some support. That’s the level I’m going to watch.

  • Brishort

    Indeed! A lot of energy spent to go back to VWAP.

    Shenanigan tomorrow are expected but the turn in the velocity of the down movement today is indicative of further damage down the road after digesting sideways the trend reversal.

  • BKXtoZERO

    3 cheers for the MKT Mole for hosting this place for all of us…. And for caring. I may not say than you every day….but not a day passes where I take this for granted.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Ted Imperative to watch the 21 ema @ 2587 as I have a level 2590 close to your 2600 Below 2587 then 2506 – 2511. We just watch momentum and selling volume (reading the tape) on a pullback. We will be fine Ted. I do think a retest of the high volume December low is probable as stated in previous posts
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    BK I would not be here otherwise as you and everyone knows.Only female friendly blog in existence
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    I still find that hard to believe…. Maybe guys do suffer from toxic masculinity and I should go buy some Gillette razors.

  • Ted

    While you guys were banging the tape this morning I was busy making this:
    https://www.tasteofhome.com/recipes/slow-cooker-short-ribs/
    PS – I used olive oil. Step two made the house smell great.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    BK On a previous blog I was called the “C and “B” words. My husband should do this to me tonight … On and on .. Terrible ! What was funny was that I and MAX were smoking them .. MAX is a great guy. Glad he is here ! Always read MAX’S contributions and take note . Max an excellent trader
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hey Ted What time is dinner ! YUM !
    JULIE

  • Ted

    6:30 – You’ll need a fighter plane.

  • BKXtoZERO

    That sucks…. I try to keep things to good and bad “people”. The media is into applying labels as quickly as possible…not me. Did you feel it was a few bad apples or majority?

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    It was a few bad apples but surprisingly the guys that were decent said nothing straddling the fence.. Here BK if a guy trolled me with the comments I received … I know what would happen. The great guys here including yourself and our Chief would take care of business and said trolls gone forever ! MAX lashed out at the abusers. MAX has integrity like you and others here.
    JULIE

  • Mark Shinnick

    Robert Hare has the harder narcissists and psychotics to around 5% of the population. Really can boil down essential motive to either Fear or Love.

  • http://www.linkedin.com/in/sharondsessions/ Sharon

    Looks great. Thanks

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys BAC (big dog banks) next shoe to drop. Watch for a pullback You can see initial
    target approx 27 The confluence of the lower gap window matching price support ; lower trend line ; 21 ema ; 55 ema and back test of broken upper down trend line BAC A Must Watch Guys ! https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/41cd85a78474191641d9260c364b092d16daa19440011a627d167e63728e1359.png JULIE

  • TomW4

    @Julie, can you pls continue doing that? I mean specifying the actual SPX levels beside your EMA numbers? Like in your message above, you said β€œ21 ema @ 2587”?

    It will really be appreciated! Thank you!

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys Whenever a stock is in a resistance zone overbought and unable to make a higher high on less volume you can enter a short probe. Do not be afraid ! Good R/R
    JULIE

  • LoneRanger

    Too funny that you mentioned BAC. Two stocks that I bought short term puts the other day were BAC (2/8) and AMZN (1/25). AMZN got rejected at the 200 DMA when the market was up big and I felt we were going to get a pullback and AMZN could pull back to 1600 (50 DMA). Based on my theory that little pigs live and big pigs get slaughtered, I sold my puts at 1620 and figured I would re-short off a bounce and take it back down to 1600. At that point I MIGHT go long at 1600 as the 50 day is starting to flatline with the beginning of an upward slope. That trade might have been one on my best daily trades $$$$! With regard to BAC I saw it being overbought too plus I looked at that gap that will need to be filled and figured on a pullback this looks like a good stock to short. I figured there will be a head fake or two but worth the calculated risk. Id rather pick and choose stocks to buy or short than play the indices. It takes a little evening shopping but the game plan works for me. Julie thanks for your thoughts. Im a big EXAS fan!!

  • LoneRanger
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hi LR Glad you had a great trade AMZN EXAS presently in a trading range for about 5 months. I like to trade stocks in a trading range with Keltner Channel and overbought – oversold resistance and support CVX filling the gap
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GEEE GEEE We want you back .. Miss Ya !
    JULIE

  • Ted

    It turned out really well. I used two cups of red wine not three cups of broth. The meat just fell off the bone yet was not dry at all. The meat was greasy so if that’s not up your alley one would not like this dish. It reminded me of the Ox tails my Grandmother made many years ago except this was much easier to eat. Eating Ox tails is a messy affair.

  • BKXtoZERO

    You got it brother!

  • BKXtoZERO
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    BK LOL! Calling the “GERB” Please report to your duty station on Evil Spec
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Ted My mother would cook a turkey in a brown bag. Unbelievable.! Reminds me next time I see my Mom and Dad to ask how she does it
    JULIE

  • Ted

    GG – who is going to keep us laughing? You have a picture or a phrase for everything. Come back!!!

  • Ted

    I second that.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    CVX A minor breakout point failure. A Bearish candle closing below an important support; 21 ema ; lower channel trend line and a minor down trend line could get ugly JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/9c73c44c2978e6566552f711dd72b47dd2dfa48a6044f9ea4882541ca865caaa.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Ted GG has great charts and market insights Knows what he is doing and does it very good !
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Nice Bk Yup 300 important support then 250 Nice catch BK
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36
  • evilasevildoes

    fingernail holding on es

  • evilasevildoes

    nice night or day for you mole

    shorted zb longed the futes

  • http://www.captainboom.com/ captainboom

    BL is fine as of a few weeks ago. Trading his wheelhouse of crude and ignoring the noise.