Not Selling This One Just Yet

Nice little shake out today which is probably being rationalized in contradicting ways over in the news department. Not that I would really know as I avoid the financial news feed like a the mental level 4 biohazard that it is. I’ve been dropping ample goodies here in the past two days plus had to take care of quite a few chores behind the scenes, so forgive me if we quickly breeze through a few highlights today. The Mole needs a few hours of R&R.

So they’re scaring the children today – that’s cute and probably a bit overdue. However, I can’t take this serious unless we breach through that daily NLSL at 1491.25. We missed it only by a tick today and if you add the perfect touch on Friday then it’s reasonable to assume that it’s being observed. So that’s great – we’ve got something to hang our trading hats on. Forget anything else you read/hear/think – that’s the line in the sand and it’s good until Wednesday night.

The greenback – I wish it would make up its mind – live or die! Similar considerations as on the spoos – nice ramp today and I like it but unless it breaches that NLBL this may just be a last kiss goodbye. Great spot to be short – unless we breach, in which case it’s a great place to be long. Probably would be a bumpy ride up until it clears the 80 mark. Yeah, I know – the odds of that happening are probably lower than the 49ers traveling back in time and taking the Superbowl.  Great game though…

Sugar looking sweet again. Inside day right at the 25-day SMA – should I say more? Great setup!

Silver – inside day as well but it’s one of those times when I would follow the SMAs instead (see left panel). The ID triggers can be taken but be aware that you may get whipsawed a little before it clears.

Soybeans – we enjoyed a nice ride up and now that we see more context we may have to jump back in. Unless of course it drops through that diagonal (and the 100-day SMA) – in that case I’ll grap some shorts and hang loose.

Last but not least – NZD/USD – excellent retest after clearing that diagonal. If you snoozed the first time then you are enjoying a great setup with tiny risk (put your stop on opposite sides of the NLBL breach).

Cheers,