OTM Puts On Emotions

Quite some emotional tape today across the board. It’s times like these that usually prompt me to slow down a little, tilt my head sideways, and with a little smirk ask ‘really now’? If you remember yesterday’s musings on market weather and honeypot periods – well, case in point! Forget about Boehner, Obama, Reid, or whoever else they’re going to trot out today to induce another whipsaw. The gyrations you just have witnessed are nothing but engineered to drive you away, to get you out of the game, to press your buttons, and of course keep you from holding technically valid positions.

But I’m not going to sugarcoat it for you – we do have a bit of a mess going on right now. So let’s clean up, shall we? The technically valid setup on the E-Mini right now is to fade your emotions and be short with a stop above the line that has not yet been breached yet – that’s right the 100-day SMA. Nothing changes until that happens, no matter how scary those candles. Once we close above it then (and only then) will I take on long positions. Basta. (look it up)

Now for something completely different – I was digging into my stock arsenal and decided to put up two freebies that look promising. CCJ used to be one of my favorites back in the day when I was slinging a lot more symbols than today. I’d be long on a retest of the 25-day SMA. A bit tricky however as that one is still falling. So be disciplined. I would not chase it right now as the 100-hr BB has been breached and I’d prefer to see a bit of a shake out. Let the idiots chase that candle, thank you very much 😉

And then there’s GOOG which just breached the Maginot Line after having painted an ominous outside period. Maybe it’s a last kiss goodbye – if she breaches back below then I’ll be short. Until that happens I’m Long John Silver. I also like that 25-day SMA on a collision course – we may kill both SMAs with one stone here.

Okay, one more since I’m in a feisty mood (blame the tape). Here is the 30-year which is looking very juicy right now. Obviously we are looking at a lot of support and I hope you took that inside day setup this morning. We’ve dropped a bit since and if you’re not long here yet then you may wait for a confident breach of the 25-hour SMA.

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Silver – looking so scaa-aary! What is this – Halloween? While everyone else is probably pissing in their pants I’m seeing an opportunity. After a shake usually comes the real move. And we now have a very easy setup: Short right now with a stop a few pips above the 100-hour. Or long on a breach above the 25-hour SMA – in between we are in no-trade land. The odds slightly support the bulls right now as that daily NLSL held up just nicely.

I am NOT going to chase this candle on coffee – and neither should you. BUT if we get a nice retest of that daily NLBL then I think we may have ourselves a floor here.

Dollar – this setup may be blown up by the time you see it as it’s very temporary. I’m long with a stop just a few pips below that upper ID trigger line – minimum risk. There is a small chance that lower 25-hour BB will hold. If not then I’m going to go into cash here as things would be too messy for my taste. Always know how to say goodbye to a particular contract. Never make it an ego thing.

Cheap long setup on the USD/CHF right now. Again, we have some scary looking candles – thus I want to be long here with a stop just below the ID trigger line.

EUR/USD – I am going to remain short until we breach the 100-hr and the lower ID trigger line as shown on the chart. Happy to flip it for a long if she manages to push higher than that.

EUR/JPY looking still like a short but I would be long on a push above the trigger line. The reason for not waiting for the upper trigger is because we already tested that NLSL and it failed thus far. That makes me slightly more bullish and as we have more context I’m willing to flip there. Hope that makes sense. Yes, there is method to my madness 😉

Cheers,