Rejection

Happy Leap Day everyone! Friday’s quick stab to the upside not surprisingly resulted in immediate rejection as the range between ES 1960 and roughly 1990 represents the bull’s Rubicon on the way to a new period of glory and fortune. I expect the bears to heavily defend this range plus we’re in side a low volume zone, so expect whipsaw on the way up.

Whether or not we’ll get there is hard to say although unless participation completely falls apart here a drop today would most likely be followed by another attempt to push equities higher.  

The Zero has been positive but is starting to look a bit divergent. That’s not a license to back up the truck on short positions but I will certainly keep an eye on the situation this week and so should you.

On the Forex side I only like the AUD/USD this morning. A drop lower and I’ll be long with a stop a few pips below 0.71. If you look at the daily panel you’ll see that it’s coiling up and will soon pick a direction. The big hurdle here is the 100-day SMA and this could turn into a last kiss goodbye (LKGB).

Gold now in full shake out mode and I’m risking a small long position on a drop lower into that nest of NLSLs. My stop would be below 1220 – if that’s still too close for your palate then put it below that 100-hour BB, e.g. 1215.

I’m also waiting for a drop in crude to snag a small long position. I may be fighting windmills here but I do like the hourly panel. The daily looks like shyte and thus far the trend is your friend, thus a short position may work as well on a fast push higher.

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Wheat – I’m currently short but will flip for a long position if it manages to cross the 100-hour and that rising diagonal. Could go either way – no opinion here, just trying to catch an inflection point.

Soybean Oil – long here. I’m suspicious as that diagonal is super precise down to a tick or so. One couldn’t possibly this lucky, right? Anyway, I’ll be your Huckleberry with a small position and a respectable stop below 31.05. Let’s see where she’ll go.
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