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Sitting On My Hands
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Sitting On My Hands

by The MoleDecember 13, 2017

It’s FOMC day and I’m pretty much going to sit on my hands until all the dust settles. Speaking of which, my real life hands happen to be in bad shape these days. It turns out that punching walls and occasionally people as well as several hundred fist push ups per week combined with constant keyboard usage actually takes a toll on your mitten fillers given enough time. Suffice to say my traumatologist isn’t happy as he had to give me my second course of cortisone for this year after my left middle finger ended up being stuck retracted in the morning.

They call it trigger finger as the little rings that hold the ligaments in place inside of your hand swell up, and that is where all the fun begins. And as you can imagine this isn’t really a laughing issue for someone who uses computers for a living and I have been advised to take it the heck easy for a while. So over the next week or two I’ll unfortunately have to clamp down a little on the fluff and jokes, which I’m sure you won’t mind too much as Christmas is drawing near anyway.

2017-12-13_silver_LT

Silver has my attention currently as precious metals in general have been receiving the stick by the financial MSM whilst hyping everything crypto related. One of my intrepid steel rats posted a video last night of a Duck Dynasty look alike who – get this! – is planning to sell his own house to buy Litecoin. At first I felt bad for the poor fu…er but then again I also hold the stern conviction that extraordinary stupidity needs to be punished appropriately and publicly, and there is no better vehicle for delivery for instant karma than the financial markets (which now includes crypto). So go right ahead ‘road dog’!!

2017-12-13_silver_ST

Anyway, silver – a bounce is a possibility based on the LT perspective but we don’t want to rush into things here, so we wait for a pronounced short term floor pattern. I’m pretty sure that the daily panel has scared the jibberees out of everyone and as the saying goes: don’t step underneath a falling sword. That said, this far outside the lower 100-BB a spike low for example would be a smashing lottery ticket opportunity. But as of right now we watch (in a non creepy way) and wait for instructions.

2017-12-13_crude_LT

Crude is most likely going to be one of the most interesting futures charts in 2018. Years of sideways churn have now produced a tightly pinched weekly BB which is literally screaming for a release. Based on the current formation I believe it’ll happen toward the upside and most likely by the end of January at the latest. So I’m very much looking for entry opportunities here but as usual it’s the short term panels that we gauge for early signs of a break out.

2017-12-13_FOMC

Yeah, so this session is pretty much screwed until the FOMC press conference. Why don’t you watch your favorite crypto chart instead for entertainment value. By the way ETH is the hottest ticket right now as it has jumped 30% over the past few days. Insane… if we eventually start trading this stuff we definitely need to upgrade our meds 


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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BTC: 1MwMJifeBU3YziDoLLu8S54Vg4cbnJxvpL
BCH: qqxflhnr0jcfj4nejw75klmpcsfsp68exukcr0a29e
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  • Mark Shinnick

    Drop me a line about this inflammation thing lets get that handled.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    CAT..bloody nose?
    – told Ya.
    ;-D

    this is the ‘danger’ of trying to frontrun a reversal which simply turns out to be a pullback!

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/4d366956dcc928653dd5e9e801a798ba4f6fc38aa5818a40cd8c3d86500b1fb6.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    sorry bout the knuckles Captain. consider some keyboard alternatives.

    http://gadgetsin.com/uploads/2010/05/usb_triple_foot_switch_2_1.jpg

  • BobbyLow

    I don’t try to front run anything anymore. Been burned way too many times.

  • BobbyLow

    Sounds pretty painful Mole. I hope it gets better for you.

  • Mark Shinnick

    ++++++++++!

  • ridingwaves

    I’ll say it again, sometimes long comment strings on posts bring out the best in blogs…..
    Mole, just let a post ride for a couple days and see if people stop coming by. You can measure it in IP and comments as a test…..The early day of Calculated Risk were great because of the long comment strings…heck even Paul Krugman would jump into the fray..

  • ridingwaves

    cinnamon and tumeric

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    like day old Mexican food, let those spices simmer & mix.

    https://www.sugarfreemom.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/salsa4.jpg

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yep, ginger, nattokinase/serrapeptase, 81mg, no sugar / processed carbs.

  • ridingwaves

    or Italian sauces for that matter

  • http://www.linkedin.com/in/sharondsessions/ Sharon
  • Tomcat

    BL, closing my $RB position here, to make room for more Gold….maybe

  • ridingwaves

    put in bid for SQ at 36.95

  • StockTalker

    Ha, what about BTC? Hehe

  • StockTalker

    Covering 1/2 /NG 2.75

  • Tomcat

    For that I am selling my house, my internal organs and my kids.

  • StockTalker

    Lol, would be a seller soon

  • ridingwaves

    a prudent sell out of short gold by the looks of it so far today
    plus your short CL
    BL your on a roll!

  • Ronebadger

    Where are the rest of the foot keys?

  • HD

    I know the stats say bearish week but that is historical
    Context not context of this wave. Last year this week went 2251-2277. This year 3 days of gap ups 2651-2677? No volatility yet but I would like to see a 10 handle hit from symmetry. Needs to happen today. Or th am. Late whitetail tag starts Friday.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • StockTalker

    Watching for a ramp today to short.

  • HD

    Opened 2267 so 77 is on my radar. They have used 77 to terminate several waves.

  • HD

    I’m glad you told your “tramatologist” it was 100’s of fist push ups and not from compulsive mast…. oh never mind.

  • StockTalker

    Easy prey, 1400 hrs

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    We have a SELLER!

  • StockTalker

    VIX in Disagreement, not missing this one.

  • BobbyLow

    Thanks RW.

    We’ll see what it looks like after the announcement. I think the expectation is for a rate increase and price might be adjusting a little for just in case we get the usual “bla, bla, bla, – bla, bla, bla, although we expect to increase rates in the near future, we will leave rates unchanged for now” – again.

    In the mean time, flipping to an Oil short yesterday appears to be working (for now) as well. Sometimes things work out. 🙂

  • BobbyLow

    Cool. I’m still short Oil from yesterday and looking for a little run. My current stop is at BE.

    I’m waiting until after the rate announcement to make a decision on Gold.

  • BobbyLow

    What could go wrong? 🙂

  • StockTalker

    If this is not our final blow off, I will quit trading and become the next porn star:)

  • kim

    space, new frontiers, sp 500 10k within few years. Sorry, but monthly looks extremely bullish.

  • ridingwaves

    gold took off last december on rate raise….redeaux?

  • sutluc

    If buddy in the video sold his house and bought lite when the video was made (Sept 2016), he looks like an f-ing genius.

    Hope your hands treat you better, mine are all buggered up too, isn’t much fun.

  • StockTalker

    Exactly the sentiment, start looking at the weekly.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • ridingwaves

    the bull run is definitely not over…..

  • BobbyLow

    Could be cuz it’s some crazy stuff. 🙂 If it does take off I would be happy to go along for the ride.

  • Julie

    HD Late whitetail tag Friday. In MT bucks are shedding antlers presently
    JULIE

  • HD

    Agree but ready to play wave 2 retrace down first.

  • HD

    Coues deer down here haven’t even rutted yet. Shed in April. My hunt unit is on the MX border and right where border patrol killed someone last week. Should be an adventure…

  • StockTalker

    /ZT gap fill 107’200. Looking at /NG 2.80, move about to start.

  • Julie

    Be safe HD. I enjoy hunting with my husband. You can tag roadkill in MT now. OR has the same as does ID. Go hunting by car ! Too much
    JULIE

  • StockTalker

    Keying /YM 24700, /NDK on the brink already.

  • Øyvind Nyhammer

    Good luck on your future in a dying industry, this is not the final blow off, that is many years away.

  • ridingwaves

    that’s not hunting, that’s road targeting…Hunting is when you have to bring back the deer from miles away via back….with hungry critters around….

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • StockTalker

    Not much of a sense of humor on ya is there? Colonel Klink

  • Tomcat

    Blow off & porn, I see synergies there…

  • Øyvind Nyhammer

    if you cant find blow offs in your first job you will find it in the next ?

  • BobbyLow

    Yeah, that’s kind of surprising. Permabulls are usually a happy bunch. 🙂

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    this thread is getting out of hand.
    😉

  • StockTalker

    He is a miserable one!

  • Øyvind Nyhammer

    I certainly dont want blow jobs (offs) from Colonel Klink

  • Julie

    RW It is not hunting.
    JULIE

  • BobbyLow

    LOL

  • Julie

    F had a 12.69 stop but it was wedging so did not stop out. Also one of my targets was 12.74. Watching closely and now below VWAP May add a little to short
    JULIE

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Oh that was over a year ago? Then he was a fucking genius. Good for him!

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    You better be hot with a set of giant hooters.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Bought it a few years ago – didn’t work.

  • StockTalker

    Anything is possible these days:)

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I’m tempted – it’s not that the blog is producing a lot of income these days. Mostly a labor of love.

  • Øyvind Nyhammer

    In this article there is a picture of a young boy with his penis bare and people are talking about blow offs in the comment section.

    Should I alert the police ?

  • HD

    Yesterday’s hit was 7 points

  • StockTalker

    First mistake of the day, should have kept my first target on /NG. My second mistake was promoting this guy who must be on the Sex offenders registry.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Dam u gold. A few nickels shy of a down move.

    ..well, me and BL did talk about it yesterday.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/520759e4b7f40ad188c85bd6336062cc9aedc5a494e738256104ab9c05a562d7.png

  • HD

    !!!

  • StockTalker

    If gold rallies, BTC is done!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    don’t forget. Gold is joined at the hip with the Yen. remember?

    bonus link
    http://money.visualcapitalist.com/worlds-money-markets-one-visualization-2017/

  • StockTalker

    Still waiting on /YM 24.7

  • Julie

    GDX Too GG
    JULIE

  • BobbyLow

    I went long Gold via UGLD a few minutes ago after the rate hike was confirmed. I normally don’t like to chase but getting in and anticipating this move after yesterday afternoon’s price action wasn’t worth the risk. We’ll see if this move has any legs.

    Looks like oil is getting hit a little more too.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    well, you know me.
    ALWAYS a FAN of the big 240.
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=D&yr=1&mn=3&dy=0&id=p91017191034
    😉

  • Yoda

    job

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Yoda

    Mole, have you ever tried glucosamine chondroitin?
    It works like a charm on painful joints.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    $15 Billion per year industry.
    popular stuff.

    https://www.health.harvard.edu/blog/the-latest-on-glucosaminechondroitin-supplements-2016101710391
    whoops, negative reviews on this link

  • Yoda

    Today’s great.

  • StockTalker

    Trump up next:) Oh shit!

  • Julie

    He fired Omarosa …. Lol !
    JULIE

  • Julie

    Adding a small amount to short probe F Maintaining a very small position
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    you sound like a gambler trying to get a certain slot machine to pay out.
    LoL.

  • StockTalker

    2/10 on fire right now, game over GG:)

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    2/10?

  • StockTalker

    Treasuries

  • Julie

    Not gambling GG volume and chart action
    JULIE

  • Julie

    Targets along with trend line and moving averages breaks
    JULIE

  • Julie

    GE nibbling long on 50% pullback on light volume and holding daily 5 ema and Ichi Cloud conversion line (8) Small position
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • StockTalker

    Think Santa will be on notice

  • StockTalker

    /NKD in big trouble here

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    bottom fishers.

  • Julie

    GG Thought out trade not shooting from the hip Red horizontal lines are a support zone along with a 50% retracement and a channel breakout. Pullback on light volume JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/7621f8be89203bab0da6827f4bd1ada4050a2c3dd82ae49372ad13f5988c9bfe.jpg

  • Julie
  • Julie

    Above chart wrong chart JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    understood. we are looking at different timeframes.

    my apology.

  • Julie

    GG Small position . Both of my positions are small
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    all of Today’s prices are within yesterday’s price range.
    dangerous to guess which way it will go.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Schrodingers cat.
    I keep an eye on the dollar and it goes nowhere. I turn my head, and it goes WILD.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/7719285cddf858b00679ad82575370a5ad9400ce7fddcf3645ad0f4483d25b4f.png

  • Julie

    GG I had two targets F 12.63 and 12.74 At 12.63 (61.8% retracement )there was a pullback and it was to an uptrend line. Then an advance off the uptrend line. I calculated that a rise to 12.74 would be an approx. 1.3% loss from where I shorted (small position). Decided if it went up to second target (a few pennies shy) and pulled back would add to short. Everything calculated trying too anyway
    JULIE

  • Julie

    That’s the Black Cat that I referred to in a post awhile back ! LOL !
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Risk Reward? 😉

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Julie

    Yup GG F overbought weekly and daily charts IMO F is an intermediate term short possibly retracing 50% of the advance from August
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    you realize, F is following the S&P?
    just buy/short the SPY. he he.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=0&id=p10902721085

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Time.

    Check.

  • Julie

    GG I think F will pullback approx. 50% to a support and it’s weekly
    55 ema wiil watch at 38.2% retracement and weekly 21 ema JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/a59ef79b404140207413b7c6d73b81f783949afd687baa68f4eab76abd98c191.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    we had the fibo conversation.
    Fibo’s can let you down.
    do you have a secondary chart without fibs’s backing your first assumption?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • ridingwaves

    XLF needs to cool off, down 1.2% today, seems a little overbought, could see a rotation into some other sector to keep the party going in the meantime…

  • Julie

    GG Sure do A back test of the broken downtrend line coinciding with the 50% retracement and weekly 55 ema JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/cf000ace704cbd7ec8bf95888124fbe8b2289e43c65592e163050f79ad61784d.png

  • Mark Shinnick

    Bot some volatility. faz from earlier doing good.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    dude.
    I’m excited about Bio now. not sure why.
    😉
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RpkgLzyUUAA

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    “Impressive”

  • Julie

    GG I attempt to think everything out If I am wrong not wrong long. Blonde head spinning a million miles a minute ! Lol !
    JULIE

  • Mark Shinnick

    I went home long vol…sort of rare.

  • ridingwaves

    still consolidating but did get close to break out….opex is key….
    eeegads, there is the unibrow baby, little ron jeremy….the horror
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aNUr__-VZeQ

  • Mark Shinnick

    Went home long…maybe just another typical trap but them is sometimes the rules :/

  • ridingwaves

    save your head and fingers and take a break, something like I will only do 2-3 posts of week for Jan. Feb. with extraordinary event fill in if so…the long comment strings might produce some nuggets…

  • Julie

    GG What is now interesting an inflection point F. A major uptrend line matches the daily 5 ema and lower cloud boundary on the 10 min chart. A confirmed breakdown below will add again. With today’s pullback after adding to initial short probe almost breakeven
    JULIE

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    useless VWAP. odd.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    SLV, man I was really sweatin it today.
    Opposite George Theory seems to work really well.
    😉

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/5209aa73737afe84c8f9ae3d2ba6bba1c3920087e995aa0781161e9aa9b6ca0c.png

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • http://www.linkedin.com/in/sharondsessions/ Sharon

    That’s too bad. It looked great on the surface. Glad you are feeling better.
    I go to an Osteopathic Manipulation Doctor once a month for maintenance. That usually keeps my body in good shape.