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Starting To Look Very Ugly
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Starting To Look Very Ugly

by The MoleDecember 6, 2018

Tuesday’s bloody carnage has continued overnight and it’s becoming clear now that someone had been in the know that day already, fully aware that the publication ban sought by Huawei’s CFO Meng Wanzhou would only stave off the vultures for so long. So brilliant timing given the fact that most of retail remains locked out of closing their long positions until the market opens at 9:30am EST. Wait a minute, what am I talking about? Retail holding long positions over a holiday – in equities? Right…

Now don’t get me wrong, if you bet on the big bad bear by backing up the truck Tuesday morning then all the power to you and I recommend you do absolutely nothing at this stage. Yes there is a very good chance that we’ll see another response spike higher as institutional players take at least partial profits and then laugh all the way to their offshore holdings.

But there now also looms the equally decent chance that the increasingly the woke bears, tormented by a decade of quantitative easing and various other monkey business, seize this opportunity to finally break the despised bull’s back once and for all. Unless equity buyers stage an aggressive BTFD campaign right here right now and by that I mean today right after the open we are looking at some pretty ugly EOY possibilities here.

For we are heading straight into the second most bearish week of the year here, statistically speaking. So given where we are I leave it up to your respective imaginations as to what the implication of failure would be.

The response over in the Dollar futures was positive of course – but quite weaker than anticipated to be frank. This could easily resolve lower and when it does it’ll probably approach he 93 mark. A good sign that it would do just that, is a breach of the recent spike low at 96.3.

I don’t have a horse in this race right now and although I would usually take a long setup right here the current situation is a bit too hot for me, so I’ll gauge what happens today and then re-evaluate my options.

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Watch Your Six

Otherwise everything is pretty much a mess right now and this year is lining up to go on record as the worst trading year of the decade. I wish I could say it was fun but I don’t remember working this hard to eek out an edge for a long time. We did just fine given what we had to work with. But fun, no most certainly it was not.


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    If this resolves lower I anticipate a comment count of 500+ 😉

  • Darkthirty

    2525 or so still a target, timeframe keeps evolving….looking at the 11th now. near target of 2647

  • BKXtoZERO

    and lots of counting too Sir!

  • Darkthirty

    PPT has the line drawn at 2650

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/d61dee586db6a74b104b42b8ef8f8b656db0f91a8be1b92b5f7f88a00dc0055e.png
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/be61079266f03ccac3d3d61d9ea5d47397932daebed3cc89cbfb8daeeb949c58.png
    DAX daily and weekly

    All markets getting into synch now..FTSE could be about to fall off the cliff..
    As long as the selling continues..
    Dax target 10200
    DOW 23200

    that could be the end of the drop with a rally in the new year 2019 – sell in May and go away..

    Obviously a long term map…different time frames different trades,
    But for now it looks like sell any rally (it’s worked since Oct – though you have to have nerves of steel at times)

  • Brishort

    Overnight session mass movement of this magnitude after a day closed?
    There was no easy way to catch this one,with a closed day in the middle of the week, caution was warranted as unusual timing. Back to my precious P&F:

    We ended Tuesday on a high pole reversal. The likelihood of touching the trendline at 6650 became high. Just didn’t expect it to open on it directly at the next regular session….

    By the open, we could already be at the blue line. As long as NDX does not tick below 6650, the market may open exactly on support. If it was to give way, 6450 previous P&F low becomes strong support that may get defended vigorously.

    How this turns out, I have no clue. Just that from a P&F perspective. no serious downtrend has occurred if 6650 first holds. then 6450 second for support on an extrem down move. After, well we’ll see how we cross once we get to the bridge.

    But a very serious retest of previous low and a diagnostic in search of a sick market looking to form a low on its recent two lows is clearly in progress. I am unsure about a full bear case yet.

    Happy trading!! At least hoping to provide a few targets and key point to look for… https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/21ff27dba531ccfec5e1c00d67325a6fd50e464f01d0c013f8d8d41dff9ff79b.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Thanks Bree.

    and this is why I’m glad I kicked Spoon. metaphorically speaking.

    “If you didn’t have a plan to buy before open this morning, why not?
    were you fully prepared? are you letting circumstances influence you?

    do you have a simple system? are you bending any personal trading rules?
    do you know how much you can risk? do you have a feel for the severity of the risk?
    -GG”

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I think they’ll need to use the x-large plunger this time.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Darkthirty

    VWAP at 2668 need at least that before the open

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    off to work.
    see you at the open.

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho
  • Darkthirty

    lotsa “events” today can’t seem to find the Bloomberg calendar though

  • Darkthirty

    got to keep the lunars on the path…..

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I am having issues launching TOS on my VPS today, so I’m using my backup system.

  • Brishort

    I have a nickname!! Never happened before. Today is like Christmas!! ;p

  • http://www.captainboom.com/ captainboom

    That should be able to handle a turd of a turd.

  • TimeToPanic

    I’m still hoping for/expecting a small bounce here, NQ target c,6900.

    ES is at a decent fib support level (2664), and I think if it bounces to 2700, that might be all we get. New moon is tonight, but the decline started early, down is likely to be the trend til full moon on 22nd.

  • Sp00nman

    Haha thx GG. In my defense I would have played the long side with a very tight stop, but as I posted with the chart yesterday, I’m very wary of the long side. There just hasn’t been very strong selling/bearish sentiment on the pullback since Oct.

  • Darkthirty

    Nicknames are like women, the ones you don’t like are the ones that won’t go away…..

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Zero subs: ThinkOrSwim is experiencing data issues this morning. I tried to launch it on both of my systems, the VPS and the backup, no dice. So this is on them and I hope they get it fixed soon.

  • Sp00nman

    Chief (or anyone), Is there a certain platform or way you use to backtest data? I currently use TOS and have played with thinkscript (I find it a pita), but not sure if there are better options (that don’t cost a fortune either). I’d appreciate any input.

  • HD

    It’s a good thing some of us had a conversation about when that EOM rally might end…. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/aabcdba9399b1415722a5c262699a235061b907111beaaefab680868902f93fe.png

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/9939460d1fa693613c65b0750a17057a91be9894bfdbc14ff5c8fcae773083f7.png
    maybe ..think we head lower first test the lows – then a bounce –

  • TimeToPanic

    It’s a strange situation as it’s all happened out-of-normal hours. Will it open with a load of long stops being triggered and a crash? If you’re a dip-buyer, what would make you buy now? Should have held my short position, but hindsight and all that…

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    DOW only 8% off highs,

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    yes cash markets closed but futures were trading , and ROTW open…people would have been trading yesterday –

  • TimeToPanic

    What about the ETF traders, they’d be trapped I assume, or stopped out in 2 minutes?

  • Brishort

    Multicharts with easy language is my go to platform for backtest.
    High quality programming, high accuracy.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    (face palm)

  • Sp00nman

    Gold is testing the previous high. The top of the channel isn’t too much farther. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/544cc6d2ba9923798fc29ed328390b15ae0e9b1bc80888ba60186a4167b2a055.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    only.
    it’s only a flesh wound

  • BKXtoZERO

    Long Crude, UWT 13.75

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    smile for the camera.
    2666

    price may climb back up, but that (205) median?….is going to bend over.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/e118ad45a227731f143b1096544fad7c76473d5f88fe1728ae2785f9bc7a3662.png

  • HD

    2683 still an interesting price

  • bankwalker

    They can neutralize any equity ETF positions with futures contracts. Also SPX and /ES options trade overnight.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    about twenty cents away from a death cross.
    all together now, death cross death cross death cross. (sarcasm)

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/50fc6f79ee94452cf38a32cca92078ba74a02d53e5ba248ac841e965aa218ca3.png

  • BKXtoZERO

    Long TBT 36.9

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys 2657 and 2639 are levels I have to watch . Remember the triangle that Max and I have posted. Going to play this on the daily chart with a possible reversal at these levels.Maintained 1/4 position short over weekend as posted JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/624124d4c69f4ace209fb5d9dfca631091c0478ee510108cea3df9862a03204c.png

  • Wave_surfer

    Buying Puts on Monday morning would have been really nice, but I didn’t see this move, so I have missed it and I am on the sidelines too. VIX sure is moving too.
    Volatility has been increased but I can’t see whether it will continue to sell even though we are oversold or if some violent corrections will start.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    “both catapults are broken sir”

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jqfXXaOisKo

  • HD

    symmetry near 2630

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    just remember if this is a bona fide bear move or start of markets can be oversold for a long time and keep going down…if it’s a bear usually safer to play the short the rallies rather than but the dips –

  • Yoda

    hahaha

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    HD Chart updated including today Let’s see what happens at lower trend line meeting approx 2657 and 2639 JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c9f0899b3c31affd54ec3f4b3adbd2b172c45bea60633a0df4bdc54f32b868dc.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Weekly 10 ema bearish close below weekly 50 ema is a death cross also per charts RW and GG in the past
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    You’re probably correct.

    I’d like to see 2622 before Europe closes.
    😉
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/5fd39b12f0f887b88f613d1620cf35a7fa34eaf64f5e58604cbd07b510210c88.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Major Boo-Ku signal, I was saving that for Friday (tomorrow)
    Dang you.
    😉

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I knew it was serious.
    but thanks.
    😉

  • Yoda
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    BB25? tighter than a strippers dress.

    try BB50?

  • HD

    poor mans vixen is up 34% from Monday’s signal

  • HD

    I learned my 20th lesson on triangle earlier this year. I’ll wait to see if an E wave comes before I consider.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Cashing in remaining 1/4 short and awaiting possible reversal. Guys going to play this on the daily chart. Not going to jump the gun here . 60 min chart a possible reversal approx 2643 close to 2639 target The fattest mouse gets the piece of cheese in the middle
    JULIE

  • Yoda
  • bankwalker

    and what is poor mans vixen?

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    HD If a triangle working on D wave I will play the bounce but only on daily chart with a reversal
    JULIE

  • Yoda

    Like Mole said above, Bulls need to pull a rabbit out of their hat today otherwise their collective backsides will end up on the grill real quick

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys I may nibble long here Will post if I do
    JULIE

  • HD

    my little vix set up. Shared it numerous times. Think it’s in the Monday thread and I’ll post it again next time I see a signal.

  • Wave_surfer

    That was quite a call!

  • Sp00nman
  • ridingwaves

    wait until auctions are over before dippin in…this is all because of global cooling, its 9 degrees in Boise…

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I fully agree.
    but my only suspicion is we have the surprise open down, and europe markets are not closed yet. Follow the Zero, and plans would be the best course of action.

  • Yoda
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    nibble below the triangle line, you’ll be correct for 10 to 15 minutes, before the next drop.
    LOL.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    is it too early before Kraken music?
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eN5ExwsXUiQ

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG Don’t count on that .. Julie has a hole card (chart) that she is not showing yet LOL!
    JULIE

  • bankwalker

    Thanks. Sounds interesting.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    soggy paper gold?
    I’m going to have to part ways with you old friend.
    Copper is not on-board!!

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24COPPER&p=W&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p2016758132c

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I can see it now.
    The Silver Cougar newsletter.
    LOL.

  • Ronebadger

    I just tippy-toed a small long in this AM…we’ll see

  • BKXtoZERO

    are you still in TBT? I saw you mention that 38.5 and 38…. I didn’t like it but here at 36 area, TLT may have just peaked 118.95

  • Yoda

    Maybe Copper will catch up, but the two metals do not always play the same tune. Check 2008
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/be06556d68765dc9538e2ed070902e0ab7cf79f8c285d38e4eea743eaa4fc4dd.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    RW Sub zero last night in Bozeman … Typical weather for MT Sun shining and below zero. GG would not know what to do A very confused Gerb with sun shining and super cold
    JULIE

  • Ronebadger

    Volatility is getting…uhhh, well… volatile. This is some VIX chart, jumping from BB to BB.
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/48f0559af3ecf68fc9353386cdd3f3cc7ebf69fff20e67983cf7bf814a4a3145.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Quantum jumping.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • BKXtoZERO

    Looks Good GG, it is way outside my bollingers.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I do custom bollinger work, no charge!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Euro Markets close in roughly 30 – 40 minutes.
    I’ll be back later.
    -GG

  • Darkthirty

    Wet cold? or dry cold?

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    D30 Dry cold I would rather be in MT at minus 30 than Western Oregon at +30
    JULIE

  • Darkthirty

    Count 1st wave down to 2643 as A or 1 – B or 2 at 2816 symmetrical C would be 2525 or so……3 would be?

  • Darkthirty

    I’m at the southeast end of lake Michigan, wet cold. Gets in your bones after 8-10 hours outside

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    More people die of exposure and hyperthermia percentage wise in Oregon than all other states. Western Oregon at 20 degrees is like minus 50 in Alaska and Montana. The Columbia River Gorge in Winter can be brutal.Hikers in Oregon in the winter can get caught in unpredictable storms and weather Be careful in all parts of Oregon in the winter. Montana everyone knows the winters and are prepared when outdoors. Also MT has a good samaritan law where you are required to stop if a stranded motorist in sub zero temps.
    JULIE

  • Mark Shinnick

    …stuff is slipping. Pretty important zone here.

  • TimeToPanic

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/bCsn3WVK/

    Much lower and we’ll break the neckline of a long H&S pattern, target below is 2300.

  • Darkthirty

    Halfway to lock limit

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    Careful…CNBC talking about double bottoms…they don’t usually work especially near a recent high. And if lots are picking that they will more than likely get smelly fingers..

  • TimeToPanic

    Am I correct in thinking that none of us are riding this today? Yet again I jumped off too soon, doh.

  • randomuser6789

    I am not chasing it

  • HD

    -7 % first 3 days of Dec…. who knew.

  • HD

    Symmetry right about here. 2630 ish. Trading 2622

  • Darkthirty

    Double islands on DJI

  • TimeToPanic

    I’m no waver, but one I follow is expecting this to be a 5 wave move, so a bounce at some point (or a pause at least) then another decent move down, below that neckline.

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    waves do exist – you just need to look at a chart – the problem is trying to figure out where in the wave count it is…usually only when you look back – but it can give you an idea..before using better tools

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    still need another 406 comments!

  • HD

    Start peeling em
    Off +10 if you got them.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    catracho I do not count waves I just look for impulses and corrective moves
    JULIE

  • Darkthirty

    Just bailed out….got a signal, see how it shakes out. NOT buying any dips today

  • HD

    I had zero short. Grrr. Pure fukery by them.

  • Darkthirty

    All the snowflakes up there………

  • HD

    I believe no lock during cash. Circuits( price limits) per the CME at 7% 13% and 20% intraday

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    HD Three other levels I have above 2609 are 2627 – 2620 and 2616
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    TTP Covered remaining 1/4 short this a.m
    JULIE

  • HD

    Be fast whatever you do. We r back in my favorite environment. VIX 25 🙂

  • BKXtoZERO

    VIX doesn’t usually last outside bollingers too long….. maybe even a step 1 buy who knows…. I haven’t tried chasing TVIX. Bought some crude today as a hold here near 50 area, may see 47, if so then I add the rest. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/801303ff5a5de62aa16aa0c73897b9c0061ef26806d06b127c4cda7e78ed0611.jpg

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    HD From Monday the decline definitely an extended 5th wave of an impulse down
    JULIE

  • Darkthirty

    The 5% I stated yesterday is AH

  • ridingwaves

    yep and in the red….the move is enormous for bonds…..I almost think they had no foreign buyers lined up for todays auctions and knew it starting last week…

    ISM was best print in 13 years….this is not about slowing growth, tariffs or such, a foreign buyer strike on bonds seems to be afoot…..I like your entry price better!

  • ridingwaves

    I had to have a steak here to get meat on bones….chilly to say the least

  • Darkthirty

    locks are moneymakers if you dump puts a % out and load calls. When the lock is off PTT has it all pumped and ready to rally

  • HD

    Did the quants pick up on the symmetry (EW) or are they still crunching the numbers?

  • ridingwaves

    the investment banks…

  • HD

    Who do you follow?

  • HD

    Don’t count. Don’t ever count! Just trade the anticipated moves within the context of a wave. Abcx12345 is crap! EW is not counting. Ask anybody here how that worked out for them. 🙂

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    HD I like 2620
    JULIE

  • TimeToPanic

    https://studyofcycles.blogspot.com/2018/12/measurements-matter.html#comment-form

    Only found him a couple of weeks ago, other wavers I read were mostly crap.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Sounds like it. It was a setup but I had just gotten stopped out and in reality I would have preferred to see another test of overhead resistance on Tuesday. Things proceeded too quickly from there. I think this took most of us by surprise.

    https://evilspeculator.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/2018-12-04_spoos_stop_out.png

  • HD

    Sorry.

  • ridingwaves

    Dear Julie 35-36
    The Oregon department of tourism has officially removed you from our holiday post card database, you have gone out of your way to destroy our tourism for the last time

    Signed
    Oregon state official…

  • randomuser6789

    And after a 3% move tuesday, markets were closed wednesday. Not many have the confidence and conviction to hold over the closed session. For many, rules may not allow it.

  • HD

    All out +20

    IPA and donut time.

  • Darkthirty

    It’s all fractals, Start with a year chart and work your way down. Use a line chart, candles are for wiccans

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    You got it HD That is what I do
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Long SPX against today’s low small position will post when I add
    JULIE

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Busy day for Krampus. Looks like there have been a lot naughty boys and girls this year. VWAP will be the decider today.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/32bc115423b121e1084c4cd9b4163afd09ab4e3062505b2dadbe723b6a0aa8b2.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    2621.53 – I’m so awesome!
    LOL.

  • TimeToPanic

    These moves are just the small fry chief, best yet to come, after the next bounce, and once we break the H&S neckline, give it a week or two.

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/jqVsXbcn/

  • Darkthirty

    Shoulda maybe.……….

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    2620 is a Level 2 GG I am in against today’s low
    JULIE

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Seriously, what is wrong with you guys today? This is unacceptable.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • BKXtoZERO

    so GG has you putting pictures in your charts now? pictures get more attention!

  • TimeToPanic

    My waver guy started his 5 waves down count on Tuesday, not Monday, thinks right now is W4, 5 yet to come, be careful.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    TTP A small probe long against today’s low. If wrong minimal loss and out quickly
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    well captain, we don’t have BL around to get into some pissy political convo.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I did that way back starting in 2008 when I launched this blog. Remember who lives here 😉

  • TimeToPanic

    Interesting relative strength in NQ, which has relatively weak, also RSI divergences abound, the bottom could be in (more likely to test channel bottom).

  • Darkthirty

    There is a disturbance in the force……

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Planetary?

  • Darkthirty

    Was in on margin overnight

  • HD

    2622 was the RT call. $1500 per contract in less than a hour. You think I want to sell that knowledge to some quant? LOL

    Have a good weekend all.

    Friday is gonna be a spicy meat a balla. I don’t want any of it.

  • Darkthirty

    Was getting sell signals that kept getting stuffed….

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    bye!
    (GG waves to 6×6)

  • randomuser6789

    We have a few others who will go to town with political convo in BL’s absence.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX Targets 2705 – 2710 and 2717
    JULIE

  • Darkthirty

    I think he was “subsumed” by his ego, just reading that crap made me nauseous

  • ridingwaves

    the XLF daily gap at 24.10 from 9/11/17 still might be a target…..

  • TimeToPanic

    He is arrogant, but seems to know his onions.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Jason on previous thread pointed out the $TRIN Great post on his part. $TRIN at approx 3 or a group of $TRINS approx 2.5 combined with $NYAD @ – 2000 can be a tradable bottom Great job Jason
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    RW 26.20 is possible too
    JULIE

  • Darkthirty

    The algos fucked EW up. It’s based on human emotion. I also found it to be a zen type thing- either you get it, or you don’t. I’m ADHD so I can’t follow ANYONE, or trust anyone to lose my $ for me. I use a lot of bizarre crap for confirmation, TA fib retraces. symmetry, RSI on the dow, et al, but it works for me.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    that’s why I tell the hair-cutter,
    “just a TRIN please”.
    😉

  • ridingwaves

    lots of streets to take now..I’m actually leaning your way….with everything out of whack, SPX next week being second worst might be flipped over….

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    SPX down, QQQ down, even $sox not good.
    look at INTC!! something smells.

    not gunna touch it. Too much going on, still. interesting!

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    when you get to a fork in the road?….take it
    😉

  • bankwalker

    93 S&P 500 stocks up today …

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    If VWAP gets touched and the Zero holds the line I’m grabbing a long position:

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/51bbb53484144e8dcdfe3db3dd07cb0835dd0d2eea1f71f5445a34d89330b22b.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    RW with this unusual volatility IMO seasonality is secondary Seasonality does not always work 2015 same volatility at same time and no Santa Claus rally. I believe you pointed out in a great chart the lower trend line from 2016 being broken. The $DAX and Banks in some real trouble.
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • TimeToPanic

    I don’t really get, far too bloody complicated.
    I’m with you, my charts are fairly simple, look at divergences, trendlines, fibs, and now the moon phases too.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Chief overbought 10 min chart going up into 10 min 34 ema possible minor pullback to get long if not long earlier
    JULIE

  • bankwalker

    just trying to see all sides while flat …

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Zero back in the minus, so I cannot justify a long here right now.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Chief I have SPY VWAP @ 265.20 on the 10 min chart
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    raining, lunch at desk.

    sitting by the digital fire. throw it on your 2nd, 3rd or 4th monitor.
    😉

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kRXrqURyRy0

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I hear you babe, but it’s got to line up on my end. Hope it works out for you though.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Don’t burn down the blog, GG.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    ROFL

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    10 min!? mercy.

  • Darkthirty

    Then check out “merrimans market analysis”, got a free weekly preview. You have to read between the planets, as it were…..

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I’m making my Xmas list.
    These dividend stocks need to be lower, so I can get a better Yield.

  • TimeToPanic

    Already on my reading list thanks.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I went to the school of Rammstein Wave counting.
    =P
    (where’s my ‘C’ dam it!, my CEEEEeee!)

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/d8bbc10b3f4aaffc7bb1a06a6fb9f7dcd595d107d189ec9e32d33275700c91d4.png

  • ridingwaves

    starting to nibble SMLP, would like a 11.70 retest..my stop will lower every time divi is paid…..last EA they announced divis is good thru 2019…by 2020, my stop will be 5 bucks..like it here compared to 50…

  • ridingwaves

    The Germans have been in trouble for a long time, trying to re-engineer everything is not always the right play

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Long with stop < 2640.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPY Bounce off 50% pullback intraday above VWAP The pullback was from 10 min 34 ema and overbought 10 min chart. Posted below there would be an intraday pullback
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Now your logging Chief ! We are in the same boat Chief !
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • ridingwaves

    18% yield is sweet….not as sweet for the 30-40-50pps buyers….

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Now you are logging cooking with gas Chief ! We are in the same boat. How about a cup of hot chocalate LOL!
    JULIE

  • Jason13

    IHS on 15 min possible. Target 2705ish.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I prefer the strong stuff little girl.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • Mark Shinnick

    Yeah…would be a good reeming…

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Jason Posted below I have 2705 – 2710 and 2717 Hey great post yesterday referencing the $TRIN I also look at $TRIN Also the trin level you posted with $NYAD @ – 2000 a tradable bottom is close
    JULIE

  • TimeToPanic

    Especially trying to re-engineer your population.

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    Looks like the obligatory bounce off the previous lows, Shorts and dip buyers..let’s see how they do
    Still short no stops taken out yet

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Sp00nman

    Definitely a bit of a look above the high of the day and fail. Did the bulls throw in the towel for the day or they just taking a breather?

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Don’t freak out bulls going to be another pullback approaching overbought 60 min chart STOCHS 5,3,3 Very positive above 2676 keep that in mind My stop is 2646
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    less than two hours left? AND A DEATH CROSS straight ahead?
    Here, i’ll lay on the couch, draw me Jack. draw me good.
    😉

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p12975810917

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    I see it too GG
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I’ll give you this, the rsi could find support on the daily.

    all lot of fear was sold before Europe closed. Best to open tomorrow even or higher, and have those positions die.

    edit: for those who don’t know me, I disregard Omens, crosses and other things the ZeroH likes to promote.

  • evilasevildoes

    watch zb

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX needs a close above 2676
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG Watch the “Bookies” tonight LOL!
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    sorry, have a meeting with my Harem tonight. They just flew in from Dubai.
    😉

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Have them feed you grapes ! LOL!
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Always! but meat is preferable.

  • evilasevildoes

    they popped crude for poppy

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    I want to buy a pullback GLD .. Have not gone long USO yet perhaps a bullish close above 11.11
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    perhaps?,
    me thinks you have a very good ema or something to smash that perhaps into a Y/N.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    probably, but I have databases to care for.

  • Sp00nman

    Yes sir, touched again. Let’s go bulls..

  • Jason13

    I think by the end of the day we’ll need three cheers for Zero.

  • BKXtoZERO

    I am in 50% and holding in UWT in the mid 13 area

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Jason the 10 min 34 ema has been tough today now approx 2665.50 Looks like now going above As stated 2676 is next very important. Nice trade today Jason
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys I am going to take some profits … Will re enter long tomorrow 30 min chart with a bullish 30 min candle closing above 2676
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    Congrats Julie…. Get you self some Korma

  • TimeToPanic

    The trendline I drew for the Dow starts way back in ’87 (day before the crash) and touches the top in 2000, and now it’s just above current prices:

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/IpCtR51E/

    Long term view (the bottom trendline has seen some action too over the years):

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/etdW33pl/

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hi BK I still think SPX going higher to targets posted below BUT there is a consolidation intraday charts (10 and 30 min) that suggests another upleg and it could very easily break down too. Above 2676 is positive and will wait tomorrow. I have things to do at work now and unable to monitor. Bullish if SPX with approx 45 min left closes above 2676
    JULIE

  • evilasevildoes
  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • TimeToPanic

    Look forward to the youtube action videos in due course.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    The Zero usually shines during like these. Let’s see if she resolves into the close. No time to waste here.

  • evilasevildoes

    agree on 2676 btw NQ hit magical 6777

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Snapchat? Telegram? 😉

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • Brishort

    You just got banned to France Guillotine for ZH crime de lèse majesté!

  • TimeToPanic

    ….(shitstorms)…..?

  • TimeToPanic

    Good cyclicality to the peaks and troughs of this downward channel, with our next trough due on or around 14th December. Fibs to the side show the levels to watch for a bounce, at least at the 0.38 level, which we’re at now, impressive (if futile) close by the bulls.

    The previous 2 declines failed at 0.38 and 0.5.

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/ySSoEuXu/

  • Sp00nman

    Damn, that’s one heck of a short squeeze. Congrats to those still long, whew..

  • bankwalker

    Julie says 2705 … so 2705 it will be …

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I guess I’m going to have to ban myself.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    That’s how we roll here. Between Julie and the rest of the crew, we don’t miss much 😉

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Gap fill at 2700.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    BW 2705 – 2710 and 2717
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Close it up.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    BW 2735 is also a target above 2717
    JULIE

  • TimeToPanic

    I’m looking back at the green candles 23rd and 25th October, both excellent shorting opportunities in a downward move. 23rd also reached down near the fib thingy.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Never look at others to do the work for you, not Julie, not me, nobody. You aren’t here to copy other people’s trade or to follow their ‘calls’, you’re here to become more autonomous. Unless you get to that point you shouldn’t be trading at all.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    like I said, “a bear’s got to know his limits”.
    massive 800 pt DOW sell off, one day closure, open gap down?
    yeah – my Euro Market closing was spot on.

    Hang together guys, or we all hang separately.
    -GG

  • Jason13

    You didn’t see my wink Sir Mole…no rookie here….been at this for 15 years.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    me and Grizz back in the day. (sigh)

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hi Jason Good job today Closing above 2676 was crucial. Your 2705 is very important as I too have 2705 – 2710 Also 2717 and Yes could go to 2735 There are various targets but we can nail it. Intraday chart today channel trend lines (upper channel ) intersects approx your 2705 and SPX 60 min chart overbought 60 min STOCHS 5,3,3 and 10 min STOCHS 13,3,3 and 5,3,3 overbought AND today met the minimum required 38,2% retracement
    JULIE

  • Jason13

    If I start getting comfortable in places my dry sense of humour and sarcasm will kick in…unless I’m told not to.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    You’d be surprised. I have seen people come here who have been trading other people’s calls for 10 years plus. Not sure how they survived this long but of course they rarely share their true story.

    I’m not here to bullshit anyone, have been doing this balls out in the open for over 10 years now. And when I make calls I always back them up with a chart or a reason.

    Take today for instance. Julie said she was long and shared here call. I told her that I first needed things to align on my end, specifically the Zero signal needed to be > the mark again. And fortunately we did get a drop to VWAP and then a bounce with the Zero > the mark. Which was my entry, see the exchange below.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Humor? I am German and vee have weezz to make you laugh!!

  • Sp00nman

    Nice job Sir Mole! I took the long from the second poke through vwap at 50.75, looked like a heckuva setup, just got impatient and took it off early. I’m not gonna complain. I think I need to go back and re-read that zero tutorial page.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Post a chart, girl!

  • Jason13

    Yes, the zero was key for my trade too today so I appreciate that.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Awesome! Glad it’s working for you.

  • TimeToPanic

    Wow, you looked so much younger back then.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I heard about it. 400 year orbit.
    +1 for the video.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Happier times. I had so much potential & big dreams.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    “look down below”

    (gawd I hate that)

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    To be honest today was not an easy day and the signal mainly pointed higher *enough* to risk a technical entry. We didn’t get a signal divergence as the drive higher was once again based on a circling rumor that the Fed was standing ready to help. So the Zero did help me but only in combination with a technical entry and in particular two VWAP touches (also on the Zero).

  • TimeToPanic

    Hope your fat friend cut down on the cheese a bit.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Ask Julie….I haven’t seen him forever.

  • Sp00nman

    Ya I’ll be the first to mention I got stopped out of two other trades earlier in the day. The zero definitely helps, but you gotta be careful with it for sure is my experience. Down almost 200 handles in a couple days, breadth increasing all day, and entering a support area, I think you had to be ready for a bounce.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Chief SPY 10 min chart — You can see the importance of the 10 min 34 ema (yellow) as I alluded to during the day as being important to get above as a consolidation formed You can see today’s channel and Jason and myselfs initial 2705 target approx intersects with upper channel and 38.2% retracement It has met the minimum required retracement being 38.2% and a corrective 3 waves with the consolidation a B wave. Again Chief not counting waves but just looking for corrective retracements JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/50dff3066c02d1a84956658a0a53a46160810ff17c3c78bf0d6d44eb740cb665.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys Click on the chart for clarity
    JULIE

  • Sp00nman

    Wild day and we pinged the bottom of the channel again. Bulls generated a nice bounce but longer term hard to be bullish imo. Just a lack of real panic selling and fear. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/f7a654d554e1b5c78abaa7cee2f5bb50a37d01f66e2a3d0f8066087885991514.png

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    You and Julie should start the ‘all lines club’.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I did and had to use 3D glasses to make it work. So many lines… well, whatever works for you.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Did she say ‘waves’?

  • Sp00nman

    LOL.. honestly I don’t use trendlines/SMAs much at all for trading. Price levels/horizontal lines I find are more important.

  • Sp00nman

    I posted this chart to highlight the lack of “fear” more than anything. We had our first poke through TRIN >2 just the other day, and we’ve only had 2 10:1 down days so far since Oct.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Pro tip – throw a LOG on the TRIN and all kinds of beautiful things will happen.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Almost 300 comments.

    ..almost

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Not even 300 comments. You should all be ashamed of yourselves!!

    ;-p

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Depraved minds think alike.

  • Sp00nman

    Danke!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • randomuser6789

    We’re trying, Chief!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    At least Bitcoin is doing good….uh….strike that.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYXBT&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&id=p90134170723

  • TimeToPanic

    Where’s the f**king time check GG? You forgot!!

  • TimeToPanic

    I may have missed it, packing up to move house on Monday, with a winter bug. Sniff.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    well, I said ‘close it up’.

  • ridingwaves

    when is best viewing for this, I saw Haileys comet the last time around in the Mojave preserve…..something no one else will ever see….picked its closest orbit and proceeded to drive up a dirt road into the back country…..not a soul around, just coyotes and cows……

    the most amazing thing I have ever seen

  • TimeToPanic

    I honestly (seriously) thought you were referring to the market gap.

    (Apparently, so did everyone else, sort yourself out man…err, gerb).

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    ah. My bad. This will not happen again.

    I frequently say close up your books, teacher’s coming.

  • TimeToPanic

    ‘something no one else will ever see’

    Bold prediction, mass extinction event on your calendar?

  • TimeToPanic

    KISS, most of us are busy folk you know.

  • ridingwaves

    Nope, I was referring to my Halleys comet viewing in the high desert back in 86….not a soul there….and not too many folks have seen it in a similar setting….

  • TimeToPanic

    OK, will we get a gift tomorrow or into Monday? Hope so.

    The 0.5 fib for the whole year’s price range on NQ is at 6935, and the 0.618 fib for this latest downward move is at 6947:

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/CmmJ8UWP/

    Lots of reactions of this price level all year, I’ll be hoping we pop that high.

  • TimeToPanic

    Ah, I was confused by your future tense.

  • Jason13

    Mole I’m looking at Dollar futures. Powell speaks in 30 mins..thoughts on its action today?

  • TimeToPanic
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    a nice rush to the upside today.
    but that’s just a slice of the 24 hr clock.

    what’s next?

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/b735757cef6b4c3076354a834f820f67e27c41762198b6485ec464a8a64982a9.png

  • Sp00nman

    Ya it’s pretty wild in the sense that the Fed (as far as I can remember) never acknowledges risks until they’re blatantly obvious and things are spiraling out of control. Not sure what to make of it, but I can’t spin it how it’s “positive” except for being able to tell people “hey we warned you assets are overpriced” and a crash was coming.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Julie will tell us!

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    BK I sold my long approx 1 1/4 hour left in trading It closed above 2676 but I did not like the action today. Corrective not impulsive and it closely attained a target Tomorrow not sure … if it advances we have the targets
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX may just trade in a trading range between the Bollinger Bands and or Keltner Channel approx 2800 – 2600
    JULIE

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    “Now, if a slap don’t work, you cut ’em or you pay ’em, but you keep the receipt because this ain’t the mafia.”

  • http://www.captainboom.com/ captainboom

    Been trading ES shorter term. Long and a short today for 16 points. Zero helps.

  • http://www.captainboom.com/ captainboom

    I watched it from the beach in Virginia Beach, VA. Stationed there at the time, so felt fortunate that I was able to get up early and check it out.