Starting To Look Very Ugly
Tuesday’s bloody carnage has continued overnight and it’s becoming clear now that someone had been in the know that day already, fully aware that the publication ban sought by Huawei’s CFO Meng Wanzhou would only stave off the vultures for so long. So brilliant timing given the fact that most of retail remains locked out of closing their long positions until the market opens at 9:30am EST. Wait a minute, what am I talking about? Retail holding long positions over a holiday – in equities? Right…
Now don’t get me wrong, if you bet on the big bad bear by backing up the truck Tuesday morning then all the power to you and I recommend you do absolutely nothing at this stage. Yes there is a very good chance that we’ll see another response spike higher as institutional players take at least partial profits and then laugh all the way to their offshore holdings.
But there now also looms the equally decent chance that the increasingly the woke bears, tormented by a decade of quantitative easing and various other monkey business, seize this opportunity to finally break the despised bull’s back once and for all. Unless equity buyers stage an aggressive BTFD campaign right here right now and by that I mean today right after the open we are looking at some pretty ugly EOY possibilities here.
For we are heading straight into the second most bearish week of the year here, statistically speaking. So given where we are I leave it up to your respective imaginations as to what the implication of failure would be.
The response over in the Dollar futures was positive of course – but quite weaker than anticipated to be frank. This could easily resolve lower and when it does it’ll probably approach he 93 mark. A good sign that it would do just that, is a breach of the recent spike low at 96.3.
I don’t have a horse in this race right now and although I would usually take a long setup right here the current situation is a bit too hot for me, so I’ll gauge what happens today and then re-evaluate my options.
Soybeans isn’t an entry just yet but I wanted to keep my perspective exclusive to my intrepid subs. This has the makings of a massive short squeeze once it resolves (both directions are possible) but I want to wait a day or so too get a better idea of where the Dollar is heading.
Binary setup on the EUR/USD which continues to coil up near support. Entry triggers are on the chart but the big continuation thresholds are 1.12 on the downside and 1.15 on the upside. A breach through any of those and it’ll trigger a massive squeeze. Definitely worth getting positioned early but I want to see some sign of momentum first and this is a good first whack at this.
Watch Your Six
Otherwise everything is pretty much a mess right now and this year is lining up to go on record as the worst trading year of the decade. I wish I could say it was fun but I don’t remember working this hard to eek out an edge for a long time. We did just fine given what we had to work with. But fun, no most certainly it was not.