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Ten Glorious Years
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Ten Glorious Years

by The MoleAugust 3, 2018

Rejoice ladies and leeches, as today marks a very special occasion here at Evil Speculator. For it is today, exactly 10 years ago on August 3rd 2008, that I published my very first post on Evil Speculator, only to be followed by 4,238 more over the course of the ensuing decade. Quite frankly I would have never imagined in my wildest dreams that I would ever host a financial trading blog, let alone that I would do it for such an extended time. So what the hell happened and how did we get here? Well, pack your bags because we’re taking a trip down memory lane!

The first half of 2008 was a pretty tough period for me. I was working on a consulting gig and after having spent over ten years in the SW racket I felt completely burned out, and finally had to admit to myself that working as a gun to hire in the software industry wasn’t going to work out for me. Don’t get me wrong, I love to code and I really enjoy solving technical challenges, but what increasingly started to affect me was the prevailing corporate culture in especially large SW companies.

I am naturally a bit of a tinkerer and thus I love to explore and figure things out on my own. At the same time I also enjoy working in small teams contributing to a shared iterative goal that produces value for an organization over time. But corporate dynamics and interdepartmental intrigues and dealing with increasingly restrictive HR policies simply weren’t my cup of tea. Even company parties or corporate sponsored excursions seemed tantamount to Chinese water torture to me.

Now for years I had already pursued various ways of ‘getting out’ and the notion of trading for a living in particular seemed to check several of the boxes on my list of personal core priorities. For one trading allows you to be location independent and thus frees you from exactly the types of extended commutes I had been subjected to over the course of my career as an engineer.

Self direction, being your own boss, and irregular working hours also strongly appealed to me. And then there was the potential of almost unlimited financial gains, although somewhat understanding math as an engineer I was keenly aware of the potential risk as well. When a good friend of mine launched a futures trading firm around the year 2000 I jumped at the chance at helping him build his online presence, which in turn also allowed me to learn more about the trading ‘bizns’.

It didn’t take long for me to start trading my own account and of course back in those days I didn’t know a futures contract from a hole in the wall. Regrettably my friend’s trading firm didn’t survive its first year but I continued to trade my own assets over the coming years financing what at the time was more of a glorified hobby via my consulting gigs at various SW companies.

Then the big financial crisis reared its ugly head in mid to late 2007 and really got rolling in earnest in 2008. As I mentioned previously, I had reached emotional burn out territory, admittedly due to me working full-time on challenging software development projects whilst also trading my own money when I found the time. Which admittedly more often than not happened during lunch breaks or before heading out to work as I was located in California (where the market opens at 6:30am PST).

When my consulting gig eventually ended in July of 2008 I had a decision to make. Find a new job or cross the Rubicon so to say and finally try my luck at trading for a living. The reason why this possibility had even occurred to me was because I had done very well in the markets over the past months, mainly because I had been long puts all the way up to my ears. Yes, I was one of those perma-bears back in those days and there was an extended learning curve still ahead of me. Which of course continues to this day. We never really stop learning as traders, but in that respect it’s no different from being a software engineer.

Retail trading had really come into its own over the previous decade and especially ThinkOrSwim at that time was the trail blazer in the market with the brilliant Tom Sosnoff at its helm. Especially when it comes to trading options TOS was top notch and offered mere mortals the type of analytical tools and charting packages even professional traders would have sold their own grandmother for just a decade earlier.

And charting certainly was something I immediately took like a fish to water. Just like everyone else in our racket I had absorbed a ton of pertinent educational material and I knew just about enough to be dangerous. At the same time trading blogs were the new big thing and one of my favorites hangouts at the time was a site called OptionAddicts run by a very smart and talented fellow called Jeff Kohler. I really enjoyed sharing my work there and although I still had a lot to learn my charts seemed to be very well received.

That is until I started to post increasingly bearish scenarios in the summer of 2008, suggesting that a major market correction was looming ahead. The fact that I was right about this was immaterial to be honest, I was an inexperienced market analyst who was projecting his opinions on the future price direction in the stock market (which was what I was mainly focused on back then). And apparently quite a few people started to complain to Jeff about it, because at some point I received his seminal email asking me to hold back a little with those bearish calls.

To be clear I was not officially booted off the site, Jeff was very cool about it and simply told me that people were getting a bit annoyed by this purported perma-bear that couldn’t shut up about some impending doomsday scenario. And being a decade less wiser and thick skinned than I am now I did exactly the opposite of what Jeff had probably intended: I marched off in a huff, never looked back, and decided to start my own trading blog. For the record: I have not spoken to Jeff in a very long time but last time we did talk on the phone in 2010 I think we had remained on very good terms.

Suffice to say that at the time I was probably less than half the trader that Jeff and his senior crew were. But  I had smelled blood and was determined to go out there and make myself heard. So one weekend in late July I busily went to work and put together the first version of Evil Speculator. The name actually was inspired by some of the financial news at the time blaming ‘evil speculators’ for the continued downside in the equities market. I simply added a dose of teutonic cynicism and thus evilspeculator the trading blog was born.

Its supposed mission was to educate and share constructive financial analysis among a community of like minded traders, whilst dispensing with all the hype and misleading news. But at the same time we never actually expect to be taken seriously and the general idea was to cater financial information to a small cadre of die-hard (and very bearish) traders in a humorous and somewhat satirical way. And of course we all intended to bank a fortune in the impending wipe out in equities. I’ll cover that story another day 😉

Here’s what we posted on the new site’s ‘about’ page: Evil Speculator is dedicated to identifying probabilities of price targets in the financial markets. To that end, we post short term market updates several times a week and engage in pertinent discussions. This is an open forum and everyone is invited to participate. We only ask that you keep it civil – even if you disagree with our outlandish predictions. Evil or not – we don’t enjoy foul language (unless it’s funny). 

Now remember, that was a few months before ZeroHedge had appeared on the scenes in January of 2009. The financial blogging space was a lot more fragmented back then and we didn’t yet compete with the likes of Facebook or Twitter. And for some reason the blog caught on very quickly, thanks mostly to cross over traffic from other sites on which I had previously been participating. It was something new and before I knew it thousands of people were checking the site on a daily basis. I don’t think this would be possible in this day and age as the competition for eyeballs has grown exponentially ever since.

Encouraged by the rapid success I eventually introduced various pay2play services in order to justify at least some of my time spent here on a daily basis. A few of you guys reading this and even some of my most loyal subscribers actually go back all the way to those early years. I met Scott this way and we became friends, in time we even started to collaborate on various projects, which continues to this very day.

A lot of people have come and gone over the years. In that time I have seen some people turn from noobs into stone cold professional traders. Unfortunately I also had the questionable honor of seeing a lot more give up, lose interest, or sometimes blow up their trading accounts, no matter how much help and constructive advise was offered. All I can say is that for some reason I am still here doing this a decade later. And I like to think that in the process it helped me grow as a trader as well as a person.

I am not sure how many more years doing this I have in me, but I guess it’s not just up to yours truly, but to the community as a whole. There is no way I could have made it this far without the help, friendship, and of course the financial support afforded by my intrepid subscribers. It’s you guys I built the site for in the first place, and as long as you keep coming I’ll be here posting my charts and market analysis. And of course I’ve got a lot more silly jokes and politically incorrect wisecracks waiting to be unleashed on unsuspecting victims.

Thanks for everything, guys! It’s been a wild ride for sure and we all learned a lot on the way. If nothing else it’s been a lot of laughs and we even banked some ill-gotten coin in the process. Let’s hope I’ll still be here writing a similar post in August of 2028 – and you’ll be here to read it! Unless of course I’m retired on some quiet island or dead in the ground by then – in that case you can all buzz off!

Special Recognitions

P.S.: Special thanks to the GoldGerb, Scott ‘The Convict’ Phillips, Ronebadger, HD, BobbyLow, Yoda, tradingmom, ridingwaves, BobbyLow, and many others I didn’t mention and who’ve been contributing here since the beginning. Also special thanks to Julie – a relative new comer who however has more than made up for time in volume over the past year. And of course a very special thanks to all of my subs who help keeping the lights on at the lair and the server running.


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
Enjoyed this post? Consider a small donation to keep those evil deeds coming!

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  • Ronebadger

    Good to reminisce (I had to look up spelling)…Wow, I got an honorable mention? Talking about old folks…I miss Trading Mom (hopefully she’s minding her family and didn’t blow up her account) and Fearless…although he ran off in a huff. It’s a great family here. And to think, I first got here reading an article mentioning Evil Speculator and the VIX Buy/Sell signal. Happy Trading Everyone!

  • http://batman-news.com RacerXX
  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Hey mate – long time no see!!

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Thanks for keep coming around, Ronebadger.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I just re-read that old post and boy, my writing skills totally sucked back then. I’m surprised anyone bothered to show up!

  • JackSparow

    To another 10 yrs!.. wiser+richer.. Thanks Mole

  • HD

    10 years! We all celebrate Sir Mole III and Evil Speculator. Quite an accomplishment and a true testament to hard work paying dividends. Congrats amigo.

  • ridingwaves

    Congratulations Mole, in the blog world that could be closing in on a record…..Quite a feat and the education you provide your readers is top notch…thanks for all you do…..cheers from the left coast

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Thanks for all the contributions, RW 🙂

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I’ll try to keep it interesting for sure.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Congrats Mole! and thank you for your continued work here reaching out to others and leading by example every day! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=knp9-GY6fHE

  • topedge

    Congrats. Thanks for all you do

  • ridingwaves

    XLF winding up, will it break out of 28.34 prison next week…..the indexes would dig it…

  • randomuser6789

    I came to Evil Speculator in October/November 2008 because I wanted to hear from someone who saw that mess coming. The masses were caught by surprise. I have been lurking here ever since, having been a sub a couple of times when trading actively. This site is top notch. I have learned SO MUCH here that nobody else is teaching. And I have learned it not just from Mole, but also from the list of ‘perps’ at the end of this post. This is the best blog on the interweb. Hands down.

    To 10 more years of ill-gotten gain!

  • http://batman-news.com RacerXX

    I’ve been around just not posting much. Neeenja.

    And yeah I miss the old ToS days with Tom. Crazy times..

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    Congratulations Happy 10th

  • ZigZag

    Congrats Mole! I’ve learned a lot from you and Scott. Not really actively day trading now due to that pesky job, but of course that means I’m having my best trading year yet.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Thanks Mole I have always called you Chief .. That’s because you are our Chief … Thanks Chief and let’s go another 10 years. Thanks for providing a site where the ladies are not run off by indecency and female friendly .Everyone contributes and no trolls. THANKS CHIEF !
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Happy 10th Captain,
    within that black heart of yours, is a spot of Goodness.
    I’ll put in a good word for you at the pearly gates.

    -Master Leech

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hi GG Thanks for everything that you do
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Thanks for everything RW
    JULIE

  • Ronebadger

    LOOK at those two tails from today and yesterday, piercing the tight BBS…let’s see what happens. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/3506ce1fa497e45373f17867e9ee424991aef85b3a1dcb0cbbed7d9c4e763598.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    RW in https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/7d3b0eddd99e6b8f615038dcb18755ddc745a071f44fae1c9f57921a6411ae40.png a post below commented on a breakout XLF and it’s importance. BAC the Big Dog of the Banking Index struggling at the upper parallel channel and March gap JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    TTD A high flyer I have not bought yet Bouncing https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/83c5049b5c59b275060f032b08fc6a9d27ec7f2deab37158249847be049e4c22.png off the 55 ema and lower channel. Waiting for a bullish close above 90.76 and upper cloud boundary. Today so far pulling back JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GLD 115 A very important support level
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GDX Down to a very important support zone. I have a long position GLD slightly underwater. Possibly buy some GDX today at close with a bullish close above it’s 5 ema JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/804f4e2ebbc9360c6765eea90661dc7879e4f42385003efcc7e59405f0b7c792.png

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Long time no see – hope all is going well with you.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Thanks for all your contributions, GG!

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Thanks mate – you are too kind! I didn’t realize you had been coming here almost since day 1.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GLD resistance 115.60
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX The bulls have kept it alive The bounce off support and 21 ema. Now negotiating it’s 5 ema and an upper trend line that I am watching JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/f613a4702354c3dd7a981536e737bb8e6b5192a68db19951d10602fae9e85397.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36
  • Darkthirty

    Almost to 2837 …………………..

  • ZigZag

    /RTY is not having a good day

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    D 30 2835 C wave = 1.382 A Just saying
    JULIE

  • ridingwaves

    I might head up to the farm, drink some wine, think about what you said on tech burnout above and possibly walk away also…technology is always full of promise but sometimes ( think I’m being generous here) leads to disappointment and frustration, supporting the client, network or connectivity bs, multi-programmer projects with multiple types of artists painting their own canvas, leading to bugs that clients turn into monsters….I’m less than a gram of hops on contributions to your friggen brewery of great info….here’s hoping you find a new home that delivers the karma that you give to others…

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bW5M5xljdCI

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    BAC Very strong support 31.11 Previous posts I had a target 30.98 Watching BAC very close
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36
  • bankwalker
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36
  • HD

    Took all day but there’s a 10 handle rally SPX. 2:00. See if the BOTs show up…

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    HD “Hedgies”GVIP selling https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/481ce9b09f627d5f4a86d051247515ac1751c580c75366e3c0039add574047e5.png into today’s SPX advance. Could get interesting I am watching trend lines SPX per chart below and 5 ema JULIE

  • Mark Shinnick

    Pricing continues to show continuation of past years’ trends. If there exists a internal shifting favoring equity and RE Bearside, its not showing in pricing.

  • Darkthirty

    I like a 786 for a 2…… always be objective. Might be an interesting weekend! The move down was 382 of previous, mebbe 4? Time will tell, ALWAYS 2 counts

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36
  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Have a great weekend, everyone!

  • randomuser6789

    You too, chief!

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Thanks for the 10 years Chief and you Have A Great Weekend too Chief !
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GLD Weekly chart at a very important support (weekly chart not shown ) Daily Chart today printing a bullish tweezer 2 day candle pattern at the important weekly support. If it can have a bullish close above the upper trend lines ; 5 ema and 115.60 resistance. Tested the July 19 high volume low on less volume which is bullish JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/98f62e51bd4b814a9c55cd91d51f8bbdbd3b671e642586fcebd723eedefecfe2.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GLD Weekly Chart At an important support zone with weekly RSI at 30. Positive divergences RSI and MACD daily chart shown below JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/4a092866bee1e6fbb84c57649e7a146112a559dfb8ae9e686c1648d87d6d583d.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Back to work Everyone Have A Great Weekend Again Thanks Chief for the 10 years
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    I closed my small DRV position. Thanks

  • strider

    Happy Anniversary Mole

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Thanks mate!

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    One last chart GVIP As you can see the “Hedgies” sold into today’s SPX advance. GVIP a failure https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/673619a13a99e9b2afb47226192356717066a0ec12aba2b86ae04a1f1f822637.png at it’s lower uptrend line ; 61.8% retracement and closing below it’s daily 5 ema on a gap and crap’ RSI below 50 and MACD below it’s center line and signal line Beware Bulls ! JULIE

  • Edgy

    Congrats, Mole!
    I’ve been around since near the beginning, maybe 8 or 9 years. I’ve come and gone and come back….and gone…..and trying to come back again. That actual full-time job and 5-member family take a bit of time from trying to do what I really want to do full time (trading). I’m glad you’re still here!

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    BAC A Breakout ? Support 31.13 — 5 ema @ 31.25 and conversion line (8) @ https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/673619a13a99e9b2afb47226192356717066a0ec12aba2b86ae04a1f1f822637.png 31.11 A bearish close below 31.11 Julie be short JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36
  • sutluc

    Congratulations on ten years! I hope you have as many more as you like.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=etb2LGjY3i0

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/9b871bce4b352f311c28c02802bf078209a568312331e018c22e2937e36258b8.png
    AAPL. somebody was talking $205. what nonsense!
    pure smack I tell you. (/sarc)

  • supervilin

    Ditto what random said.. Excellent education, been visiting since late 2008. Congratulations, long live Mole!

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Thanks!!

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Yeah, you’ve been coming here for a long time. Always good to see you 🙂

  • https://scottphillipstrading.com/trade-setup Scott Phillips

    Massive congratulations my friend. Big effort serving this community.

  • http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

    Congratulations on ten years Mole. It will be 9 years for me on September 12th this year. I know the feeling about “not planning to start a financial blog” as I only started mine for fun. Don’t know why I keep going either as there were times I about quit. But I’m still trading the market so I still do the blog… just like you I’m sure. It’s a passion to help others I’m sure, so keep up the great work buddy.

  • http://www.captainboom.com/ captainboom

    Wow. Congrats on 10 years. Don’t remember exactly when I started, but it was near the beginning in 2008. I visit most every day and catch up on posts later if I miss them due to life getting in the way.

    I’ve learned a ton from Mole, Scott, and many others. This is truly one of the best financial blogs in existence. Thanks for all your hard work Mole, and thanks to the comment section for keeping it civil and frosty.

  • http://www.captainboom.com/ captainboom

    Yeah, I miss Fearless too. I used to like the DeMark counts that gmak would post.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Hey captainboom – have blown up anything lately? 😉

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Thanks mate, congrats as well. Nine years is a long time to be blogging and to keep people interested.

  • http://www.captainboom.com/ captainboom

    Playing with fire all this week at the Pyrotechnics Guild convention. If anyone is near Mason City, Iowa come out and see the shows.

    http://www.pgi.org

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    After living in Valencia for six years I personally have been cured of watching any type of public fireworks 😉

  • http://www.captainboom.com/ captainboom

    Heh. Las Fallas is still on my bucket list 🙂

    I met a guy a couple of weeks ago in a motorcycle safety class I was teaching that was from Valencia. He had lived there all his life, and after having kids, he had had enough of the craziness during Las Fallas.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Yeah, I don’t blame him. There are two types of natives here in VLC – it’s almost 50:50. One half completely adores Las Fallas and can’t get enough of it, they are active participants and are known as ‘falleros’ – they even have clubs that meet at least once per month. The other half is like us: completely hates it and gets the hell out of dogde around the 8th when things start getting really crazy.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    When I come back I’ll have to attend one of those classes again. Have not ridden a real motorcycle since I got my license a few years ago in CA. I think I’ll go again with Brian from SoCal Supermoto – he’s very good.

  • amity

    <>

    That was an entry I made 7 years ago. One more time the same advice, get out of LA !
    (I have been there 3 months ago still digging for my relative killer). You will not be the only one making a smart move – see https://thefelderreport.com/
    I also remember the “abyss” word you used in 2008-2009 predicting/describing the
    stock market nose dive.
    What happened with Fujisun, she had very good postings – too bad you removed the archive – could you reactivate it?
    Good luck to you, Mole!