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The Evil Has Landed
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The Evil Has Landed

by The MoleApril 30, 2012

It is done – the evil has landed in Madrid. As Spain is a rather catholic country I am sure my descend has the local church on high alert. Little do they know that I have established my new lair right under their very noses!

I’m not even kidding – this old church is actually my view right out of window of the piso I rented. Amazing location and right inside a busy pedestrian zone – giving me the luxury of spitting on innocent by-passers for the sheer fun of it. The only thing that’s driving me crazy is that little street concerto which seems to only have Vivaldi’s Four Seasons in their repertoire. It was fun the first three hours but by sometime tomorrow I’m going to have to knock some heads. If that happens to be illegal in Spain I plan to get myself a good ole’ ghetto blaster and show them who’s boss West Coast style. That’s right – the Mole is in the house and life in Spain will never be the same.

After Volar’s browser bending fire-hose post on everything you always wanted to know about SKEW and never dared to ask I was planning on putting up something special tonight. However I looked for the past few hours (it’s mid evening here) and unfortunately do not see a plethora of juicy setups. Except the rather obvious one of today – yes, again we are handed an inside day on the spoos. And you know the drill by now – if not please check the cheat sheet. Also bear in mind that the lower inflection point for tomorrow’s session has already dropped to 1389.75.

We also have a sweat breakout over on Corn – that 100-day SMA breach is what we have been waiting for. Now if you want to play options on this you may want to bug Volar for some SKEW and VOL data.

Only two puny setups – I know. Have no fear that does not mean I am losing my touch. I may be living in Spain now but there won’t be any extended siestas for the Mole. I dug around in my long term war-chest and ran into two LT charts that will put a smile on your face. Unless you don’t like chart – or have no humor – or are of Swiss descend.

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More charts and cynical commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don’t waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero or Geronimo subscriber it includes access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.
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Número uno – my JNK:TLT ratio chart. We are comparing ‘income oriented’ bonds (a term that always cracks me up) to high quality treasury bonds (a term that cracks me up even more now). As of late bearish divergences are where the money is but that’s not really what we are looking at. Rather, it seems that the ratio is lagging the current advance. Sometimes it’s late and I am not about to put on my bear hat but if equities start dropping here and make a new low for the month then we may be looking at something more significant. Similarly a breach of that diagonal resistance line would be considered a break out and back up what we are seeing on the equities front. 0.33 on that ratio is where I would set an alert – a drop below that would put me on notice.

Since we’re making fun of bonds here’s another chart you want to keep handy. Either way I’ll stick it under your nose when something important happens. A little while back I was watching the 2Y:30Y yield ratio approach my upper channel. Lo and behold it did turn and has been dropping ever since. That’s the way we like it and if you wonder how the heck this can be useful then look no further than TBT – or if you want you can play TLT on the inverse.

Alright – I’ll keep sniffing around currencies for a while and if I see anything exciting I’ll tack it on right here.

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Cheers,


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
Enjoyed this post? Consider a small donation to keep those evil deeds coming!

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  • nyse

    They have no idea what’s in store for them! West siiiiiiiiiiiiide!

  • Schwerepunkt

    What a useless day spent . . . 

  • Tronacate

    Looks like a double inside day on the EURUSD

  • Schwerepunkt

    Pull many teeth today? Better than watching the charts . . . 

  • Anonymous

    Out of long and running away with my 3 ES handles…

  • Anonymous
  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_IF7HINHIP5ITYT6TDHACMWJUXQ Huisok

    DG how is the BP chart looking?

  • Tronacate

    Actually ….yeah………didn’t watch the charts all day…….;)

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    *Market Closed*

    Mole, I didn’t know Germans could be so funny.

    http://s7.postimage.org/5z06pc1mj/skew.png

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    It won’t update for another few hours.
    as of Friday it’s just a blip, but time would be on the bulls side.
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$BPSPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=4&dy=0&id=p73233598709

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    It won’t update for another few hours.
    as of Friday it’s just a blip, but time would be on the bulls side.
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$BPSPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=4&dy=0&id=p73233598709

  • Anonymous

    Inside day. I’ll be watching the monthly RTV Buy setup on the Euro. Got to figure retail is massively short.

    http://tinyurl.com/83zsg4p

  • Anonymous

    That’s ten green days on GBPUSD… Apparently a new 23 year record. LOL!

  • Anonymous

    … I see divergence on the 4 Hour.. looks like its getting ready to bounce after todays selling

  • Anonymous

     Yeah, I’d wait for a re-test if I wasn’t already short.

  • Joe_Jones
  • Anonymous
  • Anonymous

     I wouldn’t say a ratio of -2 is massively short. 

  • Anonymous

    think they will hold rates?

  • Anonymous

    Does not matter, it will move the Aussie and was surprised to see today’s action as it was sold hard. After the news be sure to have that stop ready:)

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    T time tomorrow.
    but don’t set your clock to it.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Anyone play that long signal on the ZeroFX 60-min AUD/JPY earlier today?

  • Anonymous

    Glad to see you’re being exposed to some European.. “culture”. With the way Spain is going, may be akin to the band playing on the titanic.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pe-MIDDfckw 

  • Anonymous

    Yes boss! Had just got back home. Not sure what to do later on. Past midnight the rate decision will come about. Dont want to be awake for that late. Might get out before.

  • Anonymous

    Good luck! I dont think I will be awake at that time. Stops are not useful in Aussie news trading. They take it out both ways! I like limit buy or sell orders 50 pips away.

  • Anonymous
  • Anonymous

    Missed that entry, although have boarded:)

  • Anonymous

    Plan on getting those pips before 10:)

  • Anonymous

    Yeah I’m all for Mole moving over there. I have been eyeing Australia or possibly Central America (Panama) for a bit. I have a feeling things are going to get a bit worse in the States before they start getting better.

  • Anonymous

    Long term Australia should be a great place to be. But it all depends on your age and education degrees are valid there or not.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb
  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_IF7HINHIP5ITYT6TDHACMWJUXQ Huisok

    still not updated?

    I am watching the 10yr.

    http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=ZN&p=w1

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    oh it updated.
    the link now shoes Apr 30th, with 0.00 change.

  • Anonymous

    Do you trade that pair? The neg carry is big isnt it?

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb
  • Anonymous

    Things will get worse for a few years before it gets better. Its the classic Kondratieff winter. But if you have money available at the end (like now in Spain) you can buy assets for cheap and ride the next bull up. If you are salaried you are screwed.

  • Anonymous

    Starting to enjoy FX more and more, equities are becoming less and less appealing:)

  • Anonymous

    Seriously. I am seriously considering sticking to forex and some futures.

  • Anonymous

    That’s where all the action seems to be and we are able to make adjustments/monitor more frequently. For me after some targets are meet that is where my time will be dedicated more.

  • Anonymous

    Keeping an eye on gbp/usd looking overstretched. Soybeans still rocketing. Waiting on that one too.

  • Anonymous

    2 month old resistance line on the 4hr very close to EUR/USD, shorting.

  • Anonymous

    Short /ZS from 1503, and have been seeing allot of discussion for Cable:)

  • Anonymous

    /ZS

     

  • Anonymous

    Mole, can we get a Daily Zero update please?

  • Anonymous

    Would like to see some weakness in either before shorting. You know how these things go parabolic!

  • Anonymous

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2MsB2T97QiQ  You really need to try the RSi bungee jump! Get yourself stopped out before shorting. I am beginning to see the wisdom in this approach.

  • Anonymous

    Like Mole says buy high and sell low.

  • Anonymous

    See what happened to /CC today?

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    dude, it’s like 3am over there.
    admins are going to have to step it up.

  • Anonymous

    Were you long?

  • Anonymous

    No, was stopped out over a week ago and have been watching.

  • Anonymous

    I think cable will get to 1.65 or higher and surprise you before reversing.

  • Joe_Jones

    LMAO!

  • Joe_Jones

    I noticed that wild swings help to follow the trade plan. To me, FX is less subject to emotions than equities, where our own logic and understanding of “fundamentals” can mess up the good execution of the plan. 

  • Anonymous

    I know that. I was hoping he’d see it when he gets up. There’s been no DZ update for 3 or 4 days.

  • Anonymous

    “Whoooomp! There It Is”

  • Fibz

    I think America will near a bottom when many big cities become like Detroit, with people moving out to rural areas to avoid the crime, etc. That will be the time to invest in America again.

  • Anonymous

    FX is less susceptible to manipulation “god himself could not move the euro alone”

  • Anonymous

    I believe Australia has the highest quality of life in the world. Overseas qualifications are recognized here, it is a land of opportunity.

  • Anonymous

    That would be a good setup as the month before was an inside month triggered to the downside. Therefore if it fails there should be a squeeze play 🙂

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I’m in bed indeed – will do it after breakfast. Sorry mate – still getting used to my new routine.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I moved a lot of Euros today – fucking Spain is expensive! 😉

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I would be there if it wasn’t for those damn impossible trading hours.

  • Anonymous

    Well, the next 5 min should set the tone for tomorrow:)

  • Anonymous

    fake out bull bar, very nice

  • Anonymous

    Jeez, no kidding:)

  • Anonymous

    /ES running, /DX fell:)

  • Anonymous

    Added AUDJPY:)

  • Anonymous

    At the least, a test of the highs can be played here.
    And given the mess that they have made of the economy, a run on the currency could really make things difficult.

  • Anonymous

    VOLAR, about the excel file request.I’m looking for the ability to create the 2D and 3D smiles via I assume some standard data provider. Whatever you can help with would be great.

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    yep..but some things are cheaper than rest of Europe..wine, food (most), FISH, 

    Very expensive ..energy, internet, 

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    http://www.gomadrid.com/rest/San-Gines.html
    must be close to your new pad

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I am going for those churros today! Saw the shop yesterday – yummy!

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    How about women?

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    BTW – Vodafone is cleaning me out. Those pre pago plans are a rip off.

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    yes better off signing up for contract..

    http://tienda.vodafone.es/do/catalogo/comprar/conportabilidad?p=170f3d049a484576820eceebe37e9efd&pid1=111103tsim001 
    you can get just sim cards if your phones are unlocked..

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    well you could be in the “right ” area to find out ! (unless things have changed dramatically)

  • Anonymous

    Ah yes churros funnel cakes if you will.

  • Anonymous

    OH well…AUD/USD going back to the actual discounted level. you see the market has long discounted the RBA, the number was around 1.0200ish. lemme take some profit here muhahahahaha

  • Anonymous
  • Anonymous
  • Anonymous

    Inside day building?

  • Anonymous

    Where is everybody, have the Marshians landed?

  • Anonymous

    i dont know much about cullencies,
    but AUD down = USD up = US equities down = Financial Armageddon ? 🙂

  • Kudos

    you catch it? if you did it coulda made up for all of last week. Was there enough time to catch it?

  • Anonymous

    Yes it has already been taken.

  • volar

    you can get data from CME group here (a bit expensive)

    http://www.cmegroup.com/market-data/datamine-historical-data/endofday.html

    I also download data through DTN/ProphetX by hand and calculate IV each day.

    Bloomberg also has ATM IV as well

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    morning rats.
    well well, the AusssieYen finally fell.
    http://s16.postimage.org/dun2zi63p/temp1.png 

  • Anonymous

    finally fell? HA! when was it rising?

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    Feb 16th, definitely.  February.
    😉
    http://s13.postimage.org/ecgfximpz/aussie_16th.png 

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb
  • Anonymous

    mmm. funny funny 😉

  • Anonymous

    SO, let me get this straight.  Mole is now 6 hours ahead of NY time, rather than 3 hours behind….that will come in handy.

  • Anonymous

    Yup…he’s on the olde continent…

  • Anonymous

    Come onnnnnnn let’s have a watch the paint dry session and give daddy a double inside day for tmr!

  • volar

    NEW POST FOR MARKET OPEN

  • Anonymous

    Wow! WTF was that?

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    And since I’m six hours ahead I already know how the SPX will close.