The Great Escape

And we are back to whence we came – not sure about you guys but I’m getting tired of bouncing around in this eternal 1070 – 1100 cluster. This is starting to feel like pin ball and there are now bonus points. We shall escape soon, no matter what it takes – if necessary we’ll do what Big X (i.e. Richard Attenborough) proposed: We dig!

Unfortunately our cast won’t be as compelling and I couldn’t possibly compete with Steve McQueen, but we’ll try to make it fun nevertheless. Alright, I’m still digging around for evidence but here’s my first contribution for today:

Let’s forget about waves for a change and focus on plain ole’ vanilla TA (not T&A – that comes later). We seem to be building a nice new channel and this one is pointing up. Yesterday was a retest of the lower line and we are climbing back up today. Also quite apparent is the possibility of a slightly genetically defective inverse H&S pattern (the markings are relative to the channel, so please don’t get confused). Yes, it’s a bit ugly and drools when talking but it means well!

The wave count inflection points I highlighted yesterday still apply, so no changes there. Soylent Green is of course still on the table but so is Soylent Red. So, what do we do? We sit and wait – nothing else to do – but to trade the swings if you insist on toying with the beast – or consider juggling chainsaws a worthy past time endeavor.

I’ll dig around a little more – might even hunt for symbols. Reload this page every 30 minutes or so.

2:11pm EDT: Not to fall into lazy habits here but the EUR/JPY chart is quite interesting today:

FX bulls exerted a lot of energy to heave the EUR/JPY above its 80% mark on my 30-min stochastic chart. Compare the move with the snap back in early May right after the Euro-TARP announcement. Now, mind you – stochastics can remain embedded for quite a while – which is why some people question their utility. I personally think the magic happens at the reversal breach top down and bottom up. So let’s see if this thing can break below the 80% mark in the near future. If so, Soylent Red may be in the works. If the EUR/JPY decided to stretch its legs up here then we might gyrate higher inside the channel I painted on my Spiders chart.

2:15pm EDT: I just checked and NYSE A/D ratio is the almost exact inverse of yesterday: A/D 3.2 or D/A 0.32. The daily Zero is also painting above the mark again. Well, the fat lady has not sung yet – these are intra-day readings after all. BTW, nice bearish divergence on the Zero Lite a little while ago – unfortunately I was on the phone with some new ad network – $@&#%!

2:58pm EDT: This is more of a medium to long term indicator to me:

My RSI_EMA chart on the SPX has been a very important medium term swing trading tool. We are now again right at an inflection point that will determine the tape for the next few weeks. This also lines up exactly with that little inverted H&S pattern on the ES futures. If we breach that upper trend line on the channel I painted then we may see a repeat of what happened in February – namely a push toward the 80% mark. If we reverse – and again this should happen soon – then it’s Soylent Red. Hope this makes sense – but the entire affair now seems to fall into focus. Today or tomorrow is when the ‘great escape’ will be staged – one way or the other.

Cheers,

Mole