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Time To Bitch Slap Old Bucky
86

Time To Bitch Slap Old Bucky

by The MoleJuly 9, 2015

The Fed is pretty much running out of options at this point. Their current modus operandi is to continue pretending that they want to raise rates but without real intentions of doing it anytime soon. Every month we are being served another paltry excuse as to why they’re still hesitant or that they’ll assess their timing based on the economic data. Perhaps next time it’s the humidity or waiting for the moon’s phase to line up properly.

Which means that among the few tools remaining in their arsenal to to keep equities afloat is to stomp on the Dollar once it approaches escape velocity. And given the Greek drama the timing couldn’t be any better to stick it to those dreaded Dollar bulls. And that’s going to be our theme of the day. Not because I say so but because quite a few USD related Forex symbols have moved into sync over the past few hours.

2015-07-09_EURUSD_briefing

For starters I’m grabbing a long here on the EUR/USD with a stop below the recent spike low. If the 100-hour can’t be held then we’re going to see quite a bit more sideways churn or perhaps even a revisit of the recent lows.

2015-07-09_AUDUSD_briefing

AUD/USD is looking pretty juicy here as well and I’m long with a stop below its recent spike low. Also nice to see the daily far outside the 100-day BB. Now it’s still early days here but if this thing bounces it’s high time – if it doesn’t manage a reversal here it may fall off the plate and turn into a trend trade to the short side. So short positions on a stop out may be possible here.

2015-07-09_spoos_briefing

The E-Mini isn’t among my favorite charts right now but if I don’t talk about it you guys are most likely to ride me out of the lair on a rail. So here you go – a possible long setup on the spoos if it drops to 2050. May not do it though so don’t chase it.

More goodies below the fold for my intrepid subs:

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You have been briefed – now have fun but keep it frosty. See you guys later this afternoon.

Cheers,


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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  • Billabong

    @skynard … “It was a risky call but as traders it is a decission you have to make daily.” It wasn’t that risky … your intuition kicked in from experience. Even I called ES holding at 2030 but my lack of intuition didn’t register until later, after your discussions during the evening session.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    What are you guys on about intuition?

  • Skynard

    Lol, my intuition and shell is becoming hard as a rock:)

  • Skynard

    Gap fill coming by the looks of it. One @ SPX 2080, 2100.

  • HeadNShoulder

    define: Intuition
    – the ability to trade countertrend without shitting your pants

  • Skynard

    Right, tools is a better word,

  • Skynard

    The signal today makes that signal yesterday look minute:)

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    That is ‘confidence in your edge’ – should you have one. Do you guys read any of the posts I put up here? Or are you going to rely on your ‘intuition’ instead? Or attempt to follow whatever Skynard is doing?

    Evil Speculator rule #64: You cannot trade another man’s system.

    You can agree on a direction or on a chart but you need to find/define your own edge/approach/system.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Never seen a 14 before – let’s see if it closes anywhere near that….

  • Bill

    NYSE outage hangover data error ?

  • Skynard

    5 min is playing the fiddle now, WTF

  • HeadNShoulder

    Totally agree on this. And it doesn’t really matter if you have 1million or 1billion, eventually you will loose all of them by just following Skynard unless he is just right beside you and you can pinch him anytime, 24/7,365 days.

  • HeadNShoulder

    I was thinking about that too. At one point it was 36:1 on NYSE vol

  • Billabong

    Hands-up all those trading on Skynard’s style and speed. I don’t see any hands….

  • Skynard

    Dip below support, textbook.

  • ridingwaves

    Fire sector is a big component in SPX, XLF over the 100 would add to your bullish theme…
    one thing noticeable is the big push up didn’t knock down the vix that long..
    VIX defense line near 16 on the 60 minute with gap to fill at 15.08.. if it pushes thru those 2 numbers bears might head to Montana for vacation…

  • Skynard

    Would say a buy with the Mole signal today.

  • wandering196

    You do keep me from getting too bearish lol

  • Paleface

    On TOS I saw almost 40:1 NYSE but only 10:1 combined US market.

  • HeadNShoulder
  • Skynard

    Realisticaly speaking the market has only sold off by 100 pts. not bearish to me in a bull market. Although that time will come after the bulls run this thing up. Another short play may come around SPX 2100 IMO for a possible end of a W2. This looks like a W3 starting and more than likely finish at new highs before it is over.

  • BobbyLow

    This should be a featured comment!

    Also if somebody is going to ride a long position down as far as ES went down yesterday then there couldn’t have been any hard stops involved. It appears that mental stops were involved and were “mentally” adjusted and moved at each new leg lower. I don’t believe that “this is the way it’s done”.

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    as long as it’s not this one

  • Skynard

    Do you swing trade? If you do, that is how it is done!

  • BobbyLow

    Of course I do and I use hard stops.

    I don’t want to get into an argument with you. But I’m going to give you an honest answer. I find it distracting when someone is continuously hyping their position. Whether you were right or wrong yesterday doesn’t mean shit to me. We can always have opposing positions with different time frames etc. But IMO, a lot of yesterday’s hype had a Yahoo feeling to it.

    I’ve been doing this for a lot of years and I must admit that I can’t do what you do. But I also can’t help but wonder if one of these times someone new is going to follow you and have their ass handed to them. However, what you or anyone else does is really none of my business and I wish you success.

    I just had to say what I had to say.

  • Skidmarkalot

    This is a better shot of Skynard in practice.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8kZuTdVeZsg

  • wandering196

    Can’t post a chart but I am going long zb based on a 1 hour 25/100 bb chart. Tight stop might flip it if it breaks down

  • Skynard

    By my count, this is our potential turd:) See if it plays out.

  • Billabong

    I disagree on the Yahoo point … Yahoo msg boards really suck. I follow Skynard’s dialogue to see how it matches up with my system and whether or not I’m seeing what I’m seeing. We know from experience, trading reversals without confirmation is dangerous to ones financial health.

  • Billabong

    Intuition in the context of right brain training based on many 1000 trade campaigns, allowing for discretionary trading on whether or not to take a buy/sell signal, and not taking a position for the sake of taking it without an edge or signal.

  • Billabong

    Yes, yes, yes … and that’s why folks should enjoy participants dialogue based on their system and timeframe. My only concern would be anchoring or predicting a direction without supporting evidence/edge.

  • Billabong

    Are you taking a day or swing position?

  • Skynard

    5 min div right at gap support.

  • Billabong

    It looks like the morning’s rally is being sold?

  • saltwaterdog

    Seems like it’s “tough love” day in the forum, which is great. The mutual respect here while encouraging some standards is only going to make the thread better. My two cents, I believe it would help everyone if, when a campaign idea is highlighted, that the timeframe thereof be included. To say “Long ES” is wildly different that “Long ES basis hourly”. We I’m sure all agree that a long on a 15min chart and a short basis 4hr can both be profitable.

    Basis hourly ES, we are setting up for a potential low at the 25hr m/a and 50% retrace of today’s rally. Will be watching for a valid setup on a smaller time-frame as we roll the 60min over

  • Skynard

    IMO, not today. Too much strength, div playing out here.

  • Billabong

    Ok. For me, this will go into the learning category. I use the daily chart and only enter/exit on 1-15min charts.

  • Billabong

    After 8 days on the daily, it looks like ES is starting to look like a sideways channel between 2030 and 2080. Other thoughts?

  • Skynard

    Very possible to see a major move in the works.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Where’s everyone today?

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    EVERY DAY is tough love day at Evil Speculator!

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    He for sure is keeping up the stretching.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Just came back from the gym. Seems to me that a big buyer attempted to bang the tape higher in the morning but thus far there’s zero follow up.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Oh – screen grab – forgot….

  • BobbyLow

    Kind of a tough read. The markets still have this “stuff” to be resolved and any major decision can cause a big kneejerk reaction one way or the other.

    “Thursday 9 July: 22:00 GMT deadline for Greece to submit new proposals
    Friday 10 July: ECB, EU and IMF discuss proposals at technical level
    Saturday 11 July: Eurozone finance ministers discuss plans (Brussels 13:00 GMT)
    Sunday 12 July: Eurogroup leaders meet (14:00 GMT) followed by summit of all 28 members of the European Union (16:00 GMT). Both Brussels
    Monday 20 July: €3bn payment due from Greece to the European Central Bank”

    http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-33457251

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Ha – that Euro entry came and went… just got stopped out. The 100-day however seems to always holding so we may get another chance tomorrow. Either that or it finally falls off the plate – I wouldn’t cry many tears if that happened.

  • BKXtoZERO

    I’m always reading and thankful but I don’t have too much to add that wouldn’t bring a response from the trading police.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Oh-ooohh – someone got his gentle feelings hurt :-))

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    We shouldn’t have any thoughts on direction as equities are currently flapping like a flag in the wind. If it blows from Germany the tape jumps up and if there’s a hot blow back from the South it drops back. Which basically makes it untradeable more or less – you can eek out a few entries here and there but I’ve been playing equities with very tiny position sizing. Unless you are glued to the screen at almost all hours (see Skynard) it’s very difficult to maintain an edge in such an environment.

    So don’t try to satisfy your ego by attempting to make sense out of it all. There’s way too much noise out there – impossible to get a clear read. And you’re not alone – EVERYONE is confused. The bots are just better at exploiting the chaos.

  • Billabong

    Aren’t we all confused … thanks.

  • BKXtoZERO

    OK will add this from Yahoo:

    Short sales at highest level since the financial crisis, Unfazed
    by three years of money-losing bets against stocks, short sellers
    increased their bearish wagers in June to the highest level since the
    financial crisis, according to data compiled by the New York Stock
    Exchange.

  • Billabong

    This weekend is another circus. This whole month has a busy schedule ending the FOMC meeting on 28-29 July.

  • Billabong

    Is it short sellers or money managers not will to give up long positions and hedging?

  • wandering196

    Was looking for a short term swing

  • Skynard

    Nice Job!

  • almez

    Divergence between GREK and SPY is huge today. Perhaps it’s a signal that the market is moving up

  • Skynard

    This is actually intriguing to me, that is the time to exploit:)

  • Skynard

    That has been my plan, watching and waiting now. I’m in!

  • almez

    Because of the large zero signal in the morning, the scaling makes it really hard to see zero divergences. I believe we *could* be seeing one right now, but it’s hard to see.

  • ridingwaves

    Vix scalping both ways is best play right now, making sure your out completely at end of day. The VIX is in a sweet spot that hasn’t been around in years…

  • Skynard

    APPL getting a haircut today, looks like support now @ 120

  • BobbyLow

    Tried something a little new today on a live real money forward test. With all the stuff going on I don’t want to get caught with overnight gap risk. So I held my nose and sold a Short Vertical Credit Spread on a 10 Minute Time Frame (Thanks Edd) on SPY Options that expire tomorrow. I think short is where I want to be right now on this time frame.

    So I’ve got Negative Vega and Positive Theta (if price stays below my Short Strike. In other words, this is a lottery ticket with decent odds of success. If it doesn’t work, the most I’m on the hook for is the difference between my credit and distance between my Long and Short Strike. In any event, they are toast on or before 4 PM Tommorrow.

    I know I’ve said I’m done with Options many times but this time I’m only using current ITM weekly options that have to work reasonably fast.

  • Skynard

    In case nobody has noticed, this market has built a base around /ES 2050 now.

  • Edd

    🙂

  • Skynard

    Party time amigo:)

  • BobbyLow

    If it hangs at 2050 or slightly under by COB tomorrow I’ll get to keep my Lottery Ticket Credit. 🙂

  • Skynard

    What is the spread?

  • BobbyLow

    Short 206/Long 205 with a $52 Credit so I’m on the hook for $48 per contract. I’m only doing a $1 Spread during test phase.

  • Skynard

    Not bad, safe play.

  • BobbyLow

    Thanks. I’ve seen you do pretty well with the weeklies before so I thought I would give them a try. I only want to deal with the current week’s options though. I don’t want to buy time and have a lot of vega risk. Also SPY is about the only Option that has a fairly tight spread between the Bid/Ask on Weeklies. The rest of the field you can drive a truck through Bid and Ask.

  • Skynard

    Fronts are the movers and vega kills.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Little theta burn and minimal vega risk as they act a bit like mini futures. But gamma can be explosive.

  • BKXtoZERO

    No hurt feelings, you guys are pretty clear about the rules for engagement in the serious pursuit of trading, have a system, follow the rules….. I can make no mention of hunches, guesses, feelings w/out a technical reason, plan, stops….. although I have adopted many good principles I still fall short of having any system or being a trader. You guys are great, but tough while reasonable and I respect that.

  • BobbyLow

    Looks like today was another day for the market to play “Ring around the Rosie”. And the nursery rhyme goes like this:

    “Ring around a rosie, a pocket full of posies. Ashes, ashes, we all fall down.”

    Well I didn’t fall down today – But tomorrows another day. 🙂

  • Scott Phillips

    You know the nursery rhyme is about a bunch of plague infected walking corpses waiting to see who dies first?

  • Scott Phillips

    Yes it has. Longs have accumulated positions here, and if the market falls just a little all those guys are gonna have to sell out.

    Todays price action is a shooting star. Yet another failed attempt by the bulls to take back control.

  • Scott Phillips

    Speak for yourself asshole, I am the very soul of kindness and diplomacy!

  • Scott Phillips

    Hands up if anyone here has seen posted results from Skynard, ever!

    Following someone doing an inherently high skill and risky thing without checking whether they are actually making money and how much, is the DEFINITION OF INSANITY.

    Sky has a lot of technical skill. As we all know that is not enough. The biggest indicators of whether or not he is profitable are how well and accurately he keeps his records. We just don’t know.

  • BobbyLow

    Yep. That’s how the story goes. Can be kInd of apropos when pertaining to the Equity Market in some cases ya think? 🙂

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Starting to look pretty ugly there…

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Hey guys – I’m seeing HUGE spreads in Forex right now. Anyone can confirm that? I’m on FXCM…

  • Scott Phillips

    Market has tried and failed 3 times to go up.

    Advantage BEARS. It is extremely rare for a 4th upward attempt, but one more would catch em by surprise

  • Scott Phillips

    FXCM 3.5 pips audusd, 4.5 pips eurusd – yeah those suck

    IB spreads attached

  • almez

    Wasn’t the greek proposal just submitted? MMs don’t know what’s going on

  • Scott Phillips

    NEW POST

  • randomuser6789

    I would rather take a beating from you guys than from Mr. Market.