Tuesday Morning Briefing

Welcome to our morning briefing. Here we are reviewing short term setups ahead of the NYSE opening bell. If you are a scalper or swing trader then these setups may be of interest to you. As usual keep in mind that these are short term setups although they could be used as early entries for more longer term positions.

I’m a bit confused this morning. No, I didn’t forget to take my meds last night – thank you very much. The reason for my discombobulation is what is happening over in the E-Mini. As you can see it’s looking bearish with a pink capital B. If it continues to fail the 25-hour SMA then it’s time for a call to the suicide hotline.

I’m sure you recall yesterday’s inside day + NR4 setup on the daily chart. And the rules state that a close below yesterday’s low today will most likely lead us lower. Now the trigger line is at 1372.25 – which is currently very near said 25-hour SMA.

So here’s the big elephant in my trading lair. IF we are about to fall off the plate (recall my LT updates and how important it is to hold 1380) then why did the VIX continue to drop all day yesterday? Why were the spoos dancing sideways all through the Veteran’s Day session while the SPX/VIX ratio was pushing up!

So what is this? A big bear trap or a chance to ride the bear into December? I think we ought to keep a very close look on that 25-hour SMA as it should decide the outcome here. It’s permissible to be short here but keep all positions on a tight leash.

And of course there’s more – please step into my trading lair:
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Bonds looking the exact inverse of what we’re seeing on the equities side. The 25-hour SMA continues to be support and that’s all we need to know for now, right? Great long setup here with a stop below the line.

Crude not looking so hot as it’s now battling both the 25-hour AND 100-hour SMA. I am short here with a stop above that dual whammy of resistance.

USD/CHF – not an immediate setup but I’m simply rounding up the picture here. The 100-hour continues to be a good long opportunity.

And once again the inverse on the EUR/USD. I asked Santa to get me par for Christmas – and I was a very good boy this year!

AUD/JPY also having to deal with continued rejection at the 100-hour SMA. I’m worried about depression setting in here, so if you take a short trade here be gentle, okay? Just say – it’s not you, it’s me! 😉

UPDATE 11:55am EST: I knew I smelled a rat this morning – point in case:

Obviously we’ll talk a bit more about this in my next post…

Cheers,