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We Have Got Movement
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We Have Got Movement

by The MoleSeptember 9, 2019

With the summer vacation season more or less behind us we are starting to see directional movement in several major verticals. Equity futures finally managed to burn through overhead resistance, and notwithstanding non-stop bearish reporting in the financial MSM, are heading toward a retest of their all time highs. So if you were trading the per news last week you are going to feel it in the groin region come the opening bell.

With a historical Sharpe ratio of 0.53 week # 37 certainly puts the wind into our backs for this week. But let’s not get complacent for we have three more weeks of seasonal drag ahead of us.

With all the BREXIT drama and the ECB interest rate decision a good amount of volatility is pretty much baked in.

Last week we actually exceeded the expected move by about 10 handles and I wouldn’t be surprised if we would do the same this week. So I suggest err on the cautious side with your respective projections and when it comes to setting your stops.

ES 2950 is where the short term bearish case died. Great spot to be long as well as the upper range was nicely defined. There is a small possibility of a retest and if it happens I plan to grab a long position.

BTW, if you bought long calls last week you will see your premiums drop due to a crush in volatility. If in doubt simply play a call spread which mostly  inoculates you against vega and theta risk.

More market analysis and setups below the fold for my intrepid subs:

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About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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  • BobbyLow

    Mornin folks,

    Trading last week’s news is well -so- last week. 🙂 From the never say never department, I never thought I would actually enjoy trading short term momentum swings generated by absolute bullshit news almost every day. I’ve also fully embraced the belief and the feeling that I get from not caring if I go long or short. Ms. Market is always right and I learned the hard way that it’s best for me to just try to go with the flow.

    Found short term MOMO still positive at 7:15 AM this morning and re-opened a long at 2987.75.

  • BobbyLow

    Stopped 2086.50

    Could be slice and dice time.

  • Mark Shinnick

    In trading this you perform a public service to help keep the effect of the bullshit a bit less extreme.

  • http://www.quemango.com Herb InCebu

    Do I hear 2950?

  • http://www.quemango.com Herb InCebu

    Watch INMD. It popped 6% and did not want to chase it now it is up 11.25%.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    You dodged a hurricane, I suppose that’s enough to make anyone relieved.

    a picture of you last week.
    😉
    https://i1.wp.com/www.bagheeradiabeticcat.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/cat-treading-water.jpg?resize=468%2C351&ssl=1

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • BobbyLow

    LOL

  • http://www.quemango.com Herb InCebu

    The Great Liberator of fiat!

  • http://www.quemango.com Herb InCebu

    Just confirmed, none of my cups look like this.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    of course. Your drinking cups are a little ‘different’.
    😉
    http://canigivemybaby.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/Can-I-give-my-baby-a-sippy-cup.jpg

  • ridingwaves

    well, looks like BXK was on to something. Stopped out remaining load of NUGT…..
    looks like they could take the HUI to open gap in low 20’s…..a great ride….

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    $BPGDM (that’s bullish percent g*d dam miner’s) 87.50

    it was a good run.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24BPGDM&p=D&yr=1&mn=4&dy=0&id=p54438387332

  • ridingwaves

    XAU cut thru 50sma for first time since run from June….gold holding up better…

  • HD

    I missed the whole break out. Yet another surprise, no surprise, to the upside. Next set up, for me, round numbers. Every potential bear pattern has failed to follow thru.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c7cc4405d5ae46012718c040303e9528f60322420eba6fbe6648a5fe10093ef5.png

  • HD

    Mole, what are these directionless options plays you talk about? Can you give a real world example. Product, Capital, potential pay off/ loss so we can all gauge the RR? Thx

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Darkthirty

    inverted H & S , batwings …

  • ridingwaves

    L LABU S 34.12…

  • BobbyLow

    E-Mini Price has churned in a 3 up 3 down range for the past 2 hours. Lots of upper and lower wicks telling me to stay the F out right now.

  • BKXtoZERO

    ya… my other plan was UGAZ…. I got a few nice hits on it and my plan was long into December but my own bus pulled out without me while I was underneath trying to change the oil.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Well, your stuck in the same trendless morass, but I’m guessing you have some edge.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Very difficult market BL We have not gone long our 401K’s Basically on sidelines with a small position BAL (cotton) Watching XHB (homebuilders for a double top
    JULIE

  • HD

    Nice call on UNG last month!

  • BobbyLow

    Short on Swing. . .

  • pepe

    TLT bounced off support at $143.25. If not holding then we have $142 support and after that free fall until $137.50. 🙂

  • HD

    But the VIX!?? Did it help at all?

  • ridingwaves

    RUT looks like SPX candle nest before breakout last week but shorter time frame, yet is running into heavy resistance….bunch of biotech investor conferences upcoming and definitely a beat up sector, no tariff effect in the space, stop should keep me out of some trouble..just a bet…
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/7607c0d8af6c0b001e3cd45a6e259bcde99980a41a35f0f3f9d43ca1615a76d1.png

  • Mark Shinnick

    I believe…in order to make this rally scenario work out, it must be an absolute blowout to the upside; either as legitimate repricing to actual value I don’t happen to perceive myself, or in short covering.

  • HD

    The contract roll is coming?

  • ridingwaves
  • Mark Shinnick

    Does wildlife mating behavior happen to correlate with autumn market action? …Animal Spirits?

  • ridingwaves

    I think the former is more mother nature, the latter is strictly algo controlled…

  • HD

    Ha. That I don’t know but the roll is something you can quantify.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys The Banks $BKX are having a strong day and unable to lift $SPX
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Thanks HD
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG I always liked a bubble bath lol
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    most of my ladies do. blocks the dam view!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • BobbyLow

    Emini Roll goes from U-September to Z – December on September 20th. There’s about 2 Points difference between them and I don’t think the Roll should make any difference

  • BobbyLow

    I’m glad I gave Crude a Time Out awhile back. I would have been taken to the woodshed at least a couple of times by now.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    BL No discernible pattern crude. I was looking at a possible descending triangle which could now be negated
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Oil is not steady like bonds. you sometimes have to say ‘not today’.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/59ce27d799a53708955f78baf2bc6fbab8a89f9993536bf38b3afb6a667102e9.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    that is a beautiful chart IMHO.
    RSI 50+ breakout, then fail. then CRACK.
    someone ‘gave up the ghost.’

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG SPY the 8 em has crossed above the 55 ema with CMF positive. Also several closes above the 50 sma and 50 sma has turned up Our indicators are on a buy also There could be a back test of the 2950 breakout SPX
    JULIE

  • HD

    Hey BL. Do a little study on the rolls. Almost always get volatile.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Ever go diving with these guys? I remember when they began …and loved the jacuzzi on that boat.
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/fd7cf0f34aa351837882767032714eaed6bdb69e42503b0f27bff0250de628c0.jpg

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    yeah, there was a guy named ‘Joe’, who sold me tickets 50% off at the dock, the evening before. Unfortunately, Joe was a scammer.
    ;-D

  • ridingwaves

    IDRA trying to break out, 4 target

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • ridingwaves

    no…..funny, I didn’t dive the Channel Islands much though close….found plenty of bugs near shore in PV, breakwall and Laguna or Rincon south on S. Calif. coast, Baja much of the time….there is a secret left break on one of those islands out there…

  • ridingwaves

    you might be able to short your favorite EXAS, break down possible, needs to hold here or 109……could find 95 after 104…

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hi RW EXAS down approx 10% today Thanks RW
    JULIE

  • Mark Shinnick

    Absolutely…did cardiac hill and around there solo dives.

  • BobbyLow

    I agree on softs futures like Wheat, Soybeans, and the hards like Gold etc there could be a wide difference. There could also be a wide difference in Crude from one contract to another.

    But on equity futures, it won’t make any difference to me not only because they are almost at par between Sept and Dec but also because I will be out of any position I have of September before the 20th and any new position after that will be December.

  • BobbyLow

    Totally agree Julie. Not only is there no discernable pattern or even sustainable momentum recognition unless scalping an extremely fast chart, but none of the fundamentals that change on almost a daily basis make any sense either.

  • ridingwaves

    night diving for bugs was damn sporty at PV spots with swell and tides….funny how season is peak west swell season too….
    we had some honey holes out front of old Marineland, dad would dress me in all black and we followed fence perimeter and then slid down a chute off cliff to beach…..killer hike back up with wet gear and bugs….limited often…some 10 lb suckers too

  • Mark Shinnick

    Highly memorable…awesome learning I can see 🙂

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Previous thread you guys were talking about home defense. A very important point is that you do not want to use a higher caliber than your local police. You can be in trouble with excessive force.12 gauge with turkey shot is OK but not a slug.You can be in some serious trouble using a slug.22 WMR with jacketed hollow point is what we have ready. No muzzle flash to bind you ; low recoil for a follow up shot Can]t be in trouble with a 22 WMR
    JULIE

  • Mark Shinnick

    .22 just really pisses off a Meth dude.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    that’s what they all say.
    😉
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/9745a1d8399570d453ac712cad5023a7e1a03372145e47443068e7ed19d92dd4.png
    mini blinds AND drapes, that’s hardcore.

  • HD

    as we get closer and see volume move from one to the other we can discuss again.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Mark it’s all about shot placement
    JULIE

  • ridingwaves

    definitely, 8 yrs old first night dive….watching dad from above with Allan lite was like watching a crab walk from one hole or ledge to another….he was darn good….his doubles with light down were amazing…maybe I’m a little prejudice there…no surprise, his dad was one of LB Neptunes first playas…

  • HD

    Use whatever you need to stay alive and stop the threat. Won’t matter if you’re in trouble if you’re dead.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    We have a 12 gauge tactical 18 1/2 inch barrel with turkey shot ready to go too
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    that would break your shoulder.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    The issue with posting this stuff here is that most people don’t have a firm background in trading options. I will be producing some option courses together with Tony – we already have a basic series completed. Once we’re ready on that end I’ll refer to them here so that people are able to acquire the necessary foundation. Otherwise I’ll just spend four hours writing a long ass post and it just goes over everyone’s head.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    @disqus_CPnqNwjdYF:disqus I answered your question below.

  • ridingwaves

    RUT trying to follow SPX breakout, looking for gap above congestion

  • BobbyLow

    OK

  • Mark Shinnick

    …I’ve still got my Allen….gotta convert it.

  • pepe
  • ridingwaves

    they put out the best light back then….switch o ring was only trouble spot for us..cool you still have yours…

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yeah, switch magnetism goes right through the aluminum.

  • Cyd

    I have a 9 MM with night sights and a flashlight attached
    Cyd

  • HD

    Ok thx. It shouldn’t be that complicated. Just what you bot/sold , capital and expected return or loss. There’s a lure to options but it’s never an easy trade or directionless in my experience.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    nonsense. you have 3 guard pigs.
    J M & B.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX Anyone looking for a pullback 2910 ? That would match a lower uptrend line and lower 60 min cloud boundary 2907 is the daily Ichi Cloud (21) baseline
    JULIE

  • VXXTrader

    “They” call them Butterflies I think. Because if a butterfly flaps it wings in Beijing I catch a cold in Silicon Valley. However, if it flaps its jaw in DC we all catch a cold. Or something like that. Mole, International Man of Mystery, makes it all sound mysterious.

  • HD

    sounds like Elliot wave. 🙂

  • HD

    Hope you’re feeling better too.

  • HD

    Example. If I bet on these three strikes _____for $____ I would expect to gain $____? Not worried about direction. Commissions =_____

  • Mark Shinnick
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://www.captainboom.com/ captainboom

    @r@ridingwaves:disqus Noticed EXAS drop while doing my evening research. Any news? I can’t find any.

  • Darkthirty

    How big is your house? Are you taking invaders at 50 YDs?

  • Darkthirty
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hi D30 3,000 sq feet 4 bdrm 2 bath fam room etc
    JULIE

  • Cyd

    Your funny Mr G
    Cyd

  • Darkthirty

    Just for fun play resident vs robber. Unload your weapon and try to get the drop on your husband with a long barreled weapon. You’ll be amazed how hard it is to enter/clear/exit a room with anything longer than a handgun. Racking a pump gun might scare some people, but you will have also given up your position. In my opinion the best primary weapon is a dog. It’ll pinpoint and distract the threat while you gain tactically…..

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Hey guys – I’m unable to do a post this morning as my VPS with NinjaTrader on it just went down. I could launch it locally but don’t have my charts set up for a proper scan. Sorry about that.