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Weekend From Hell
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Weekend From Hell

by The MoleFebruary 4, 2019

I had a bit of a rough weekend. Everything was going just fine and dandy until late Saturday evening, when a disturbance in the force somehow set in motion a series of mini-disasters. First I caught a huge splitter in my thumb that took me a while to extract. Okay, no big deal really. Then I broke an old cup in my kitchen, unfortunate but easily replaced. Next in line just a few minutes later was my iPad Air, which turns out to be somewhat lacking in the aerodynamics department.

Since my entire place is covered in antique Spanish tiles the impact (slightly diminished by my left foot’s reflexes) ended up smashing the front glass, and I now was starting to get a bit annoyed. I’m a simple man with humble needs but do require order in my small universe. Suffice it to say that my wife strongly encouraged me to go to bed before the house went up in flames.

Sunday started without any major occurrences and as it was a gorgeous sunny day I decided to head to the gym for an hour of exercise. Halfway into my routine I somehow managed to screw up my lower back which turned the rest of my day into a rather painful experience. I was not amused to say the least…

To my overall credit however no other electronic devices, body parts, pets, small children, or senior citizens were smashed or mutilated for the remainder of that day.

Alright, I don’t want to jinx Monday but thus far it has remained surprisingly disaster free. My back is a lot better (after icing and copious amounts of DMSO), and my iPad is donning a brand new front glass, which almost makes it look like new again.

Due to me being a stingy old SOB by the way, as it was an older iPad Air which didn’t have the front glass permanently bonded to the screen. And that’s an advantage actually as replacing the glass was a comparatively easy (and thus affordable) procedure. I’m down $80 for the repair but order has once again been restored down here at the evil lair.

Unfortunately the cumulative result of all my little weekend misadventures is that I was unable to put together a comprehensive momo update today, so it’ll have to be tomorrow or Wednesday. Now let’s see where we are this morning:

The E-Mini has parked itself right below its 100-day SMA, which as you all know by now, is the lower range of the final hurdle that would lead us back into bullish territory.

Here’s the volume profile chart. What I’m seeing here is that a jump to 2750 should be attainable, but things get increasingly more difficult afterward. ES 2730 may be our inflection point, however overcoming this series of spike highs will be tough going.

The SPX:VIX ratio was looking positive last Friday, and if the open is positive we may be on course for a first stab at the 2720/2730 mark.

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About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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  • Jason13

    Re-entered shorts for Euro and Gold last night…gonna play equities with starting to build T-Note positions.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Yes, I’m looking at gold and bonds as well. On the ZB a bit more of a drop would be preferable.

  • Jason13

    Agreed.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • Ted

    Congrats Bobby Low. Patriots played OUTSTANDING defense. No doubt who the better team was.

  • DaVerg

    sorry about the week end, i broke an old vase and shards are all over the floor. I think my place is haunted.

  • Sp00nman

    Sorry to hear about your bad weekend.. I had a weekend from hell and it’s not over. *facepalm*

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Chief I am sorry about your weekend. Remember you can’t keep a good man down.You will be back stronger than ever
    JULIE

  • https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLEx52bnnbLmh2dnV_Vyq1ErXT79LSU6pT xenoson

    They say all sorts of things happen when the moon is getting light from the wrong side, so better be careful!

  • BKXtoZERO

    in TVIX today 37.02, held small position from Friday w/ the usual result.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    NO KIDDING!

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    It’s not whether you get knocked down, it’s whether you get up. –Vince Lombardi

    (congrats to all Pats fans – I used to work at the NFL for a while and we had quite a few in the team)

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    One of my favorite Swedish bands came out with a new album. If you’re into that kind of stuff take a listen:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gFqjqKIzEOE

  • maxcherry

    getting close to a sell signal

    using bbands 20, 1.5, a close below 2700

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/cfc5d9b1c3356e38f8e3f44e795f4f9cece4a38793449a3d22149201b7e086e7.png

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Or at $10,000

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Or at $7500

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Or at $5000

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    It’s a shoo-in. I have never once see price NOT revert after a BB touch. Backing up the truck right now!

    J/K – be careful with BB touches in a trending market. You just don’t know when they revert. They could do it today but they could keep running for another two weeks. Trend traders know that and have made fortunes trading ~30% w/l rate systems.

  • BobbyLow

    Thanks Ted.

    Most everyone thought it was going to be a shoot out including me. Ended up being a defensive battle but it was still good to win. 🙂

  • Jason13

    So true

  • Jason13

    That’s not ABBA.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    I really do not watch football very much. IMO the playoffs are always better than the Super Bowl.
    JULIE

  • BobbyLow

    I think most of us trade different time frames but I’m glad that I slowed my time frame down to 3 Hour Candles on /CL. I have no idea how crude will close but I think trading any faster time frame would have stopped me out this morning and put me in position for another whipsaw. I’m still holding long and will see what price does from here.

    BTW, anyone day trading this morning’s moves in /CL could have done well going both ways. However, I don’t have the stomach for quick in and out trades anymore. 🙂

  • Jason13

    Hoping for a pullback to around 49-50 to join ya there Bobby. I definitely have missed this run

  • Sp00nman

    Ya, there have to be a lot of bagholders of crypto currencies imo. For every person that made millions and cashed out there are probably 100 bagholders.

  • kim
  • BKXtoZERO

    Out of todays TVIX flat at 37. It was looking promising with divergence to ES

  • David Goldstein

    not always so…(full disclosure: I am an Eagles fan). Lat year’s SB was incredible, and the year before that when Pats came from 3 TDs down was great as well.

  • BKXtoZERO

    one more try TVIX 36.9, tight…. probably waste of time

  • Ted

    I’m selling IWM at the close because the VIX looks like it’s going to close below the Bollinger Band on the daily.

  • randomuser6789

    It can close multiple days below the BB

  • Ted

    Perhaps but I’ve already pulled the trigger. Out on the final tick.

  • BobbyLow

    Totally agree. When your team is playing in it, there’s no such thing as a boring Super Bowl. Even though there was such little scoring last night, I was on the edge of my seat the entire game because each play had the potential to be the one that did us in.

  • BKXtoZERO

    taking dings on tvix.. out of half…. holding little from 39 and little from 37

  • Ted

    I don’t know what the vix did in the final 15 min. but it may have dropped below the lower Bollinger Band. It could be the start of an equites sell signal especially since we are so close to the 200 day SMA. I sold IWM for a profit. Now I’ll wait for clarity.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Back from dinner and we are off to the races! 🙂

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    🙂

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Zero sum game mate, zero sum game.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Nicely done.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Their format is a bit commercial but I like their sound.

  • Ted

    It would not play in the U.S.

  • Ted

    Julie – get ready your time is near. a pullback to the 50 day sma would be sweet for me.

  • David Goldstein

    I was watching with a Pat’s fan. This year was WAYYYYYY more relaxing for me as the Eagles were not in it. Still can’t believe they beat the Pat’s last year. Even though I “hate” Brady, I have to admit that he is a Golden God.

  • Jason13
  • Jason13

    We’re now sub 16 on the vix….

  • Crofx

    can’t watch American football full stop……..why does it take so long? isn’t it meant to be a 60 or 80 min game? why does each team need two teams? why all the padding??? Think Scott might agree with me…..

  • Ronebadger

    VIX closed right at the lower BB today…we’re getting close to something…maybe…(also, declining SPY volume)