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What Are The Odds?
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What Are The Odds?

by The MoleNovember 20, 2019

If your undergraduate experience is anything close to mine then your math teacher didn’t look anything like Ms. Perky shown in the featured image. Which probably was for the better as my attention span was fairly strained at that age. Plus everyone knows that calculus and hot girls do not mix – it’s basic physics. And before you say it –Β the exception proves the rule πŸ˜‰

Anyway, I’m currently being roasted in freelance-purgatory as I ended up hiring and then firing five useless CSS monkeys in the span of one week – no joke. You’d think that you wouldn’t have to explain how basic CSS works to someone who’s asking $100/hr for putting together a simple check-out page.

Which only serves to bolster my growing disdain of this decade long bull market and proves that we are in desperate need of a global recession. How I miss the nascent days of offshore sweat labor when one could get a whole site designed for less than a cart full of cheap groceries. But I digress…

It’s been said that life is a school of probabilities. And believe me – I should know as I’m being tested on a daily basis (see above). Now I could bore you all to death by talking about probability algos but instead let’s just take a good look at the chart above.

What do you see?

I tell you what I see. A very pronounced drop in realized volatility, one can literally see the gas leaking from the tank. The volume panel above also tells us that we are running on vapor, which of course does not mean we are destined to reverse right now right here. See how I made that part italic so that it would sink in.

But it’s still good to understand that we are in a low volatility melt-up, which for some reason seems to attract more hobby bears than a loaded picnic table at Yosemite.

Which is understandable to some extend as strange inconsistencies are starting to mount up all over the place, like for example the XLF lagging, the Russell lagging, contracting market breadth, or as shown above implied volatility starting to perk up.

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About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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  • Ronebadger

    Would you look at today’s bounce off the trendline since Oct 22/23? How about that? (1 hour futures) https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/121d8cf93ad57c99b395e9c6444951c4404ae835be6cd221ba4afb2b94478020.png

  • ridingwaves

    rate cuts treat volatility like a red headed stepchild…..where were the teachers like that when I was young…..

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    BingBong could always get out of the wagon.
    πŸ˜‰

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4x23dm6sPmo

  • HD

    $SPX range this week…. ~$23.04,,, $VIX >12

    Q of the D- which one is wrong?

  • pepe

    Adding Nov 22 $53 puts at $0.09 to the short campaign.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    FOSL, Macy’s, now URBAN?
    https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=URBN
    we’re all going to be naked.

    XRT is not pleased..
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XRT&p=D&yr=0&mn=2&dy=0&id=p03216865071

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    have you tried the VXO?
    I just checked, a little less drama on that one.

  • ridingwaves

    adding more JWN here….a gift I tell ya…. XRT yesterday down 5% on home depot, other missed target etc…. today Target and Lowes blew out earnings expectations and no movement…
    the big boys are brutal like that

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    “sometimes there’s a reason it’s on sale.”

    pray for an RSI bounce, otherwise, I’m seeing another major leg down %-wise.
    IMHO.
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/0b9317f3315f1de83cf8475a90da605226e2924101b023dd72b939b615060217.png

  • Sp00nman

    Amen Chief. Finished a new home build last month and dealing with contractors wears you out (it’s like dealing with children). You quite literally (around here at least) can’t find people to do work (at a reasonable rate). It is what it is, I’m not mad about it, but I’m going to quit my day job soon and become a painter if this keeps up. πŸ™‚

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    This summer I found some roofers at a reasonable rate. The problem became, when would they show up at all? A two week job became 10 weeks. I’m thinking of part time plumbing. lord Knows I deal with this shitty Market enough.
    ;-D

  • ridingwaves

    I’ve thought about selling roofing like your last comment, called 3 contractors to get bids, one of them couldn’t even go on the roof, 1 didn’t show for appt.

    ended up going with guy who showed up, he got the neighbors roof next door, pocketed 22K…

  • ridingwaves

    if it was after ER I would be worried, this is wall street at its best….symbol shorts own this market right now, better know how to see thru the darkness as the blow off top unfolds…
    heck u could have bought ARAV at 28 in pre-market on phase 1 data to see all your cash evaporate with opening bell….its tricky time from here on out….

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • pepe
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Full STO support fail. nice. +1

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    DIAmonds,
    all out.

    big drops have happened at this contour. not always. but enough.
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/15844f99c0b01b24e7f6497861950b3147b100d598310c442835f66ee6ced2eb.png

  • Sp00nman

    Ya, the quotes I’ve been getting lately are nuts, but it seems to be typical these days after a long bull market. Hourly rates of $80-100/hr for painting is nuts. Fortunately there are some good contractors out there, but there are definitely less of them.

  • bankwalker

    Sir Mole …

    I hope you aren’t expecting CSS monkeys to make your site operational …

    I would never consider them programmers … more like graphic artists.

    CSS is mostly added at the end for visual effect after the site is functioning properly.

  • bankwalker

    Where are you located?

  • Sp00nman

    DC metro area

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    like Lingerie.

  • pepe

    It’s been a m*********** to trade. One loss, one win. But a helluva learning experience in discipline, patience and trading strategy. Lowering stop losses and sitting on my hands for the rest of the day. Shorts are in the money and we’ll see how the putters are by EOD. πŸ™‚

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Sp00nman

    Lol yep, what’s the saying, the government teat doesn’t run out of milk?

  • bankwalker

    precisely … so where’s the pix?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    ..I’m at work.
    {snort}

    edit: you should have seen the looks I got for posting the piglets!

  • ridingwaves
  • bankwalker

    That is an excellent opening bid …

  • HD

    IV, specifically the VIX, has Been 100% worthless all year and yet still manages a line or 2 in every blog. Adapt or die.

  • pepe

    AMD: Short at $41.30. Stop loss $41.50. Target $39.50. Success 1:3 thus far.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Long tvix.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Guys – please don’t post girls in underwear here. The occasional bikini beauty is okay but I have to draw the line somewhere. We’re trying to keep it somewhat PG plus I don’t want to drive the ladies away.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    LOL – seriously mate – it’s ridiculous. I hired a new CPA four years ago – he was great at first but about two years ago started slacking whilst driving up his hourly rate. We are definitely in an economic bubble.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Nice…

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Nah – I put the entire site together myself functionally. But we needed someone to style some of the MemberMouse pages which look like crap. None of the people I hired seem to be able to do this per our specs – it’s mind boggling. And we pay well!!!

  • ridingwaves

    victorias secret has a prime time show showing underwear to all…..did you go mormon or something…

  • http://www.captainboom.com/ captainboom

    Here’s another exception for you Mole.

    https://www.youtube.com/user/physicswoman

  • HD

    Veryfriendlyspeculator.com

  • HD

    Jmho. I think our girls here r a little naughtier. Idk.

  • Mark Shinnick

    There’s a reason this stuff is not preserved in nature.

  • ridingwaves

    that was funny….

  • pepe

    Hourly SPX: Emerging rounded top, price/RSI divergence and declining RSI. We might be seeing a short term top at 3,127 and a healthy pullback.Or a bounce off EMA5 going higher to 3,150. πŸ™‚
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/bfef1a0ef0c79776f3c14f981d7ae4edc6ae07b4a19dd3ce1f7fe0cc056b2705.png

  • http://www.quemango.com Herb InCebu

    So we can expect it to go up or down or stay in a tight range. πŸ™‚

  • BKXtoZERO

    Nice Gerb,,,, good patience

  • BKXtoZERO

    UGAZ up! after hitting 2.50 N/G (he he he) Trying extra day TVIX today, it sure has been a tough slog for VIX but will try some at 7.2 today but not adding more til 3165

  • pepe

    Haha. I rarely trade the market, just use it as an indicator for individual trades. But the hourly BB’s has narrowed considerably so my bet is that we’ll see a bigger move soon and since the daily RSI is about to cross Rubicon I’m betting down. But I’m usually wrong. πŸ˜‰

  • Mark Shinnick

    Its become more probable.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    There she goes!!!

  • Ronebadger

    OK…But…bikinis show more “stuff” than that nice young lady above…

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    My futures are 10 min delayed.
    so I’m taking your word for it.
    πŸ˜‰

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GfoUZJWKlyM

  • HD

    Round numbers.

    Hobby bears eating well today.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Ronebadger

    I bet ya it’s some kind of China trade deal thing…or, Trump quit…

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Imagine the Hope of Slopers rejoicing.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Don’t poke the Bear. he’s had a tough week.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    Joe P – must be maxed out

  • Cyd

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/139d2cae41d27e68b9092db7aaea3e95a842ced76e8e032d4da83faa433ecea5.png Senor G We nailed everything nicely.We took profits yesterday and have breakeven stops on remaining UNP and GOLD. Julie and I knew a correction was imminent I showed this chart recently

    Cyd

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Nice.
    I can’t speak to WFC, but XLF – well, you know.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/a4a4ace34a9f34661e563a1818a856098acffa1266ffc1294d2ce7dc04c88260.png
    edit: also, Histogram crossover.

  • Cyd

    @ PEPE Double top WFC Finally Patience always pays
    Cyd

  • Cyd

    Julie is very busy as she is taking most of next week off and I am caught up finally working like a dog yesterday
    Cyd

  • BKXtoZERO

    Thanks for the tip Sir…. I was bored into inaction.

  • pepe

    Yup, my WFC putters are up +2R so far. πŸ™‚

  • Cyd

    We were waiting for a bounce to a lower high or a double top. Yessiree !
    Cyd

  • Cyd

    EXAS A failure at 21 ema , downtrend line and resistance overbought.Looking for the bearish close below 5 ema to seal the deal https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/2b7405afdefe6192942cb2a244a2d4ad0de119da23ba8954dc74d9c15523092c.png

    Cyd

  • http://www.quemango.com Herb InCebu

    You are not this time!

  • Ronebadger
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    lots of kissing Ronnie. we want to keep it PG.
    πŸ˜‰

  • pepe

    Short AMD @ $40.80. Two small losses, two medium wins thus far. Target $39.

  • Cyd

    As pointed out below Julie is very busy and she is taking most of next week off.I will be around as I am finally caught up

    We would like to express our gratitude to Sir Mole and everyone here. We would like to take the time to wish All You Wonderful People and your families A Happy and Safe Thanksgiving Holiday.
    Cyd

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    busy. ha. I have a customer on the line right now, AND I get to do a dozen production changes late into the evening. The Market comes first.
    πŸ˜‰

    Happy T-Day.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Well, there’s your problem.
    “When you are not the lead dog, the view never changes!”

  • Cyd

    Ha ! It’s better to be a bit early like our short probe SH than to be too late.Patience

    Cyd

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    hence the avalanche vid yesterday.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Cyd

    Two lead dogs are better than one !
    Cyd

  • Cyd

    Bring up SPY 5 minute chart showing volume on minor bounce from lower channel. A failure is an additional short entry
    Cyd

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I wish. the guy that does these is 1, 15 & 60.
    LOL.
    outsourcing is a tough racket.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    The term is double lead dog. not always the best!

    “The gangline is a single line to which each dog is attached, usually in pairs, and it keeps the dogs in a tight formation ahead of the sled. This is better for forested areas or narrow trails, and is the typical harness system used in sled dog races such as the Iditarod or Yukon Quest.”

  • Cyd

    SPX There it is the bounce off the 13 ema See thumbnail inset.Dipsters … A drop below the 13 ema we must watch the minor support at the 21 ema
    Cyd https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/381402b05090e45ba655696a19064a489648d4261302df6fa6c3301d02eeaf1b.png

  • Cyd

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/946adfe67cef494581054bf6f29a378576d8c1b2d720ef1413749d59fc15d3b4.png SPX Confirming the bounce off the 13 ema shown in chart directly below. SPX 60 minute chart notice today’s bounce directly off the 60 minute lower cloud indicated by the red hammer candle Must get above the 55 ema red exp moving average and upper cloud

    Cyd

  • Cyd

    SPX watching for a possible failure on present bounce at 3108 – 3109. If a failure IMO an additional or first short entry for those not short
    Cyd

  • dojibarfly

    yea, double dog dare ya to cross the tundra, ay!

  • pepe

    If close below 3,110 today then first close below daily EMA5 in six weeks.

  • pepe

    WFC: Adding to shorts on bounce @ 53.60.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Now that is precisely the sort of personal signal to watch out for.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    checking the calendar tomorrow, possible the Market is overcompensating (move low) to see what comes out: https://finviz.com/calendar.ashx

  • Cyd

    Next week has a bullish bias with holiday volume
    Cyd

  • ridingwaves

    when your telescope is locked and looking at just one star, one misses the universe….

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    ugh, holiday volume with Julie out?
    what am I going to do?

  • Cyd

    SPX 10 minute chart https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/695e6c44934ac2b3cd7b97f9fd97bae62d403c5aa822c65a9b24366999864b59.png could fail here @ 10 minute 21 ema and 10 minute baseline (21) printing a shooting star IMO Be on your toes
    Cyd

  • BKXtoZERO

    when you see no posts from me in a while…. it’s time.

  • Cyd

    Julie looking dumbfounded accepting an award for her swimming achievements. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/6262eda8151e10b35ccac0e7ce0632746d10f1bf67cb0f678b2cea1cd992173f.png She will probably not talk to me for a week ! LOL!
    Cyd

  • pepe

    Infuriating. But not enough volume to bring this turd down today. Pesky bulls keeps stepping in at the $53.25 support. A gap down below this level tomorrow could bring out ’em out in force. I’d like to see $52 – even for just a few seconds. πŸ˜‰

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Massive flippers, I mean feet. Could give Phelps a swim for his money.
    πŸ˜‰

  • Cyd

    Surfboards for feet ! She can really motor in the water Senor Gerb
    Cyd

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    LOL.
    Like many swimmers, Phelps has hyperextended joints β€” but his double-jointed ankles bend 15 percent more than his rivals. Paired with his size-14 feet, his legs act like flippers, thrusting him through the water.Jun 26, 2019

  • http://www.quemango.com Herb InCebu

    What is that was the long awaited correction? I love this market LOL.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yes..I’ve noted that, exactly.

  • Cyd

    SPX 3108 – 3109 here we be IMO a failure here

    Cyd

  • Cyd

    We love our Ichimoku Cloud all time frames
    Cyd

  • BKXtoZERO

    out of day tvix tiny gain… not holding any more

  • Mark Shinnick

    I covered size midday then am overnight very small.

  • Cyd

    BK We were stopped out of remaining 1/2 long UNP and did fine 1st 1/2 a small gain. Have not yet been stopped out remaining 1/2 long GOLD and holding
    Cyd

  • Cyd

    EXAS No short yet
    Cyd

  • Edgy

    I ran the numbers on MathBFF. She has 401,000+ subscribers and only 3 videos…. that were all posted a year ago. Maybe we’re supposed to go to that Instagram link for more?
    Anyway, can we get Ms. Perky to make the next video series?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    What’s Up Doc?

    If you saw the spike reversal overnight (oval),
    you might have got lucky, guessing the bottom (square)
    watch those futures.
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/e2675370e7e65a8198b5e08c360d64bbdfbf777bc2663e5bcdeec7e4f6e6c4ac.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Cyd

    My call Senor Gerb SPX cash 3108 – 3109 looking good
    Cyd

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    well, I did suspect over-correction for tomorrow. ha!

  • Cyd

    Futes come roaring back this evening. I smell a “Rat”
    Cyd

  • BKXtoZERO
  • BKXtoZERO

    I smell a bunch of em….. doesn’t help though.

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    It’s the final of a trilogy – (until they make the prequels)

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I’d love to do a video with her….

    … (but I wouldn’t post it here).

  • Darkthirty

    If she can swim in those barnyard boots, she deserves an award!