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Going Soft

by The MoleJanuary 17, 2019

Riding waves, one of our regulars in the comment section asks about my take on sugar and lumber and suggests that there are great trends unfolding which may be a lot more fun and profitable than wasting our time chasing the swings in equities right now. Spot on my intrepid steel rat!

And he’s absolutely right which one of the reasons I love the futures market in general. However retail traders in particular will face a number of problems with trading the softs, grains, and meats:

One – the majority of these contracts are horribly illiquid and comparing the daily volume with that in the index futures and even the metals (which are small contracts by comparison) is rather sobering. Don’t take my word for it, let’s head over to barchart.com and compare some of the futures sectors:

Okay, let’s look at the volume column – the most liquid contract here not surprisingly is March sugar #11 with nary 6,000 contracts traded.

Here are the grains – once again the most liquid contracts in this sector are Soybean, Soybean Oil, and Corn (all of which I post about regularly for this reason).

And here are the metals which show high standard deviation from one contract volume to the next. But look at the three kings which are Gold, Silver, and Copper: Gold shows current volume of > 62,000 contracts, followed by copper with 18,000 and then silver with 17,000. Quite a bit more activity than in the grains or softs.

Finally here are the index futures led by the spoos which currently show us almost 178,000, then the NQ with 63,000 and the YM with 45,000.

So when you compare the average daily volume in the grains and soft with that of indices or metals then it’s clear that getting a fill in these two sectors is a lot more adventurous. Which greatly affects of course the spreads which often can widen to the point that you could drive a ice cream truck through them.

I went through that realization many years ago when I was back testing a new trend system on wheat which showed excellent potential on paper. Only to realize that the damn thing repeatedly wouldn’t fill me, especially when the tape was about to resolve in my favor post entry. And of course the cost of trading in live conditions was eating up a lot of my profits.

However all that said, the main problem with these futures contracts for retail traders is that they are unable to actually trade them. Capitalization is one issue as margin requirements are usually quite stringent and exceed the ability of small account holders to employ proper position sizing.

Assuming of course these contracts are even offered by major brokers. ThinkOrSwim/TDA for example has removed many of the softs in recent years, at least I’m not able to find them there under the usual symbols.

Another issue is timing. I often complain about crude which is a royal pain in the ass with monthly rollover dates. Which fortunately is the exception but the main issue is more historical as many of the smaller exotic contracts differ and unless you constantly check them it’s easy to get confused and hold a position beyond the optimal time to exit and re-enter.

This was actually one of the main reasons why I put together a rollover indicator (the lines) for NinjaTrader as at least NT7 was not showing them to me. Fortunately most platforms now have that functionality built-in so it’s easier to keep track.

However when it comes to actually trade the futures this is another challenge to consider when opening a position. For example coffee shown above is looking very promising as it has just gone through a consolidation periods which is showing is a series of higher highs and higher lows.

A long entry near here with a stop < the first SL is not a bad idea BUT there is no way I’m going to do this here and then roll into May (yes May – not June – see what I mean?). Of course I could grab May right now but things often get quite wild around rollover time and I have learned the hard way to not grab any positions seven or fewer sessions ahead of time.

Similar situation in March Cocoa which shows us a rather delectable medium term formation on the daily panel. I would love to take an entry here but once again we are nearing the rollover date. So I’ll have to wait in anticipation that it won’t take off beforehand.

Orange Juice is TINY contract in the softs and the only way to get filled is to have the patience of a Saint combined with hand written commendation by the pope himself. Can pay off handsomely however as it knows how to trend once it gets going. Looks to me it’s about to go into downside trending mode and this is the sort of setup guys like Ed Seykota or Bill Eckhard live for.

What’s difficult to deal with as well is the realized volatility exhibited by such small contracts. This is particularly apparent here in cocoa which has quickly transformed from a high volatility sideways market to a low volume down trending market.

The latter of which actually being quite rare and you don’t really find them in equities or the forex market. They are fun to ride should you be lucky enough to catch them.

So these are just some among many issues when it comes to trading exotic futures contracts. I for one love them but they are an acquired taste and are almost impossible to handle for traders with accounts < $100,000.


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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  • Jason13
  • phantomflash

    I traded lumber once – one contract. I got stopped out and had about $2,000 in slippage. Cured me. OJ has similar lack of liquidity.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    LOL – yeah, it’s not exactly an ‘active’ contract ๐Ÿ™‚

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    #bloomberg is down ahead of the open

  • TimeToPanic

    Bradley turn date boss, everything’s going down.

  • TimeToPanic
  • TimeToPanic

    No one could have seen it coming. Heh.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Jason13

    Went flat at B/E….think Iโ€™ll wait and see.

  • Sp00nman

    What happened to Scott that used to post here? I was looking back through old posts the other day and he definitely had some interesting posts. Is he still around or just on a hiatus/sabatical?

  • Sp00nman

    Thus far the tape isn’t looking that bearish. Sellers either step in soon or we’re gonna have another squeeze.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    In a nutshell and that comes directly from what he shared with me: he considers posting here a waste of time for the same frustrations that I continuously have brought up myself. I mean why take the time to write long ass posts on how to build a trading system and how to run statistics if a large percentage of them keep believing in voodoo magic like Elliott Wave Theory?

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    He also has a wife now and they are both trying to have a child. Thus banking $$$ is his primary focus now. And who could blame him?

  • Sp00nman

    Thanks Sir Mole. A shame as I really liked his posts and info regarding system building but on the other hand I understand. Time is money, and you gotta do what’s best for you.

  • Sp00nman

    Looks like we opened at the lower trendline of the rising wedge on an ES 30min chart from the bottom of 2340 and have bounced. Bulls haven’t thrown in the towel.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I’m a trained professional

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RisWH8iMLdE

  • Darkthirty

    what’s the problem?

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    DAX chop fest (posted on previous post) Key on the upside 11k, 11225 downside 10785 (break that and test lows) https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/d53cd0173d63cc4d489d9c147a32764c6a641cb2f7054ca832391556f1a0dc04.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    not a problem. possible ice cracking. VWAP will decide.
    carry on.
    ๐Ÿ˜‰

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/1827af9163339b530b174087ba2f9f90455e245b4427723ef20f88ebd036a40f.png

  • TimeToPanic

    A gerbil sized flash crash. Markets getting jittery, time for ridingwaves to deploy his rs. Heh.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • TimeToPanic

    Probably nothing to worry about. Those aren’t big companies anyway. BTFD.
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/01a6b5926247103aa3bb97e9ebab62ca8809e56ff297d10a5746c596db78198a.jpg

  • TimeToPanic
  • Sp00nman

    Short term that sounds bullish to me. Market likes free money.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    That start trading button should be in red ๐Ÿ˜‰

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I’m in the process of recording a comprehensive system building video series which will be offered here and at a new place I’m building early spring. So I got you covered ๐Ÿ˜‰

  • BKXtoZERO
  • Ted

    Bears better show up at 2625 with more than a cap gun.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Bulls better get another credit card.
    HIgh yield has been stalled for 4 or 5 days now.

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    how about a rejection? with a few days rest.
    make a handle to that V-cup.
    “support becomes ceiling”.

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho
  • Ted

    IWM is on the cusp of making a new high, however, much fuel has been used to get it their. Aud/jpy looks like it will take a breather.

  • TimeToPanic

    No, it’s a sign of a crunch happening. No one else notice the big banks revenues in bond trading plummeted? Credit is contracting. QT too. Hence high crash risk.

  • TimeToPanic

    2625 if you’re lucky, then it’s over.

  • Sp00nman

    Ya it’s a sign a crunch is happening but who’s to say they don’t print enough money and throw it at the problem to temporarily stop the crunch? HYG/JNK not signaling a problem for now.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    which they might do.
    just look at that. end of the World, gloom and doom.
    Charge It!! Trillions & Quadrillions of dollars.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/66f30fe606d12cfbd876577f3c8e28c8b7d344198965c813bdf180ff109bcd6e.png

  • Ted

    small cap squeeze – rest should follow

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Ted $SOX beginning to roll over. Now under 5 ema
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    ..i wouldn’t short it. (edit: that train left 4 days ago)
    pullback to support in my lens.
    RSI 52

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/31e24be03e491297931ba412e1e52190beedb06fd473890c1f41872a2d591d30.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG .. More volume at Thanksgiving SMH … IMO open a short probe against the high
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX IMO an ED developing since the 15th … Danger Will Robinson
    JULIE

  • Jason13
  • Jason13

    In 100% of cases, the low was re-tested.

  • Ted

    Market seems to have an endless supply of Viagra. LOL

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Ted actually RUT looks impulsive off the December 26th low. The rails which should be on everyone’s radar as they are domestic and do not go to China or Japan. $DJUSRR (rail index) a corrective 3 waves down from October high and now an impulse off the December 26th low. Yesterday I stated there will be a pullback SPX (bulls will take profits) and to watch when a pullback occurs 2482 – 2486
    JULIE

  • Ted

    Rails pick up and deliver containers at various ports. They are not completely domestic in that sense.

  • Brishort

    GG: we had discussed a few weeks back that USD needed a lower retest of some trendline before taking off.

    I believe that low has been seen last week.
    Take-off time could be just around the corner.

    Bottom line: LONG ANY USD PAIRS NOW FAVORED. DX futures as indirect play.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/4ac8e3175d4796b81b027725b9abb2cf7d0a3fd2edd5a4ee679dc45b39d31499.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Ted One little trick to watch with the rails concerning the domestic economy i.e. the rails haul waste products a leading indicator. The American Railroad Association publishes data on hauling waste products and when that begins to decline … Well … I presently do not have those figures or raw data
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Another item to watch and monitor is electricity usage which is published weekly in Barrons Magazine
    JULIE

  • Sp00nman

    Interesting, I wonder what they classify as a waterfall decline. We’re just a smidge under 12% for the counter trend rally at this point.

  • TomW4

    Thank you

  • evilasevildoes

    remember BIG convergence date tomorrow from Inauguration…

    meanwhile NFLX big bets https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/9607534180be059c4d27bb92b8f628e21551b5c65c8a5601cf47012b36b1f267.jpg

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Jason high volume lows and highs are usually retested. I too am looking for a retest of 2346 BUT as stated when a pullback occurs going to watch 2482 – 2486
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hi EV BA holding it’s 5 ema … Busts it and ….. ! !
    JULIE

  • HD
  • HD

    Interpret as you see fit. Not EW or a prediction.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I do not recollect that conversation.
    but I do keep a $USD chart for 3am booty calls.

    RSI 50 FTW
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24USD&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p1339310061c
    -GG

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    a minty refreshing Monthly chart.
    +1

  • HD

    Thx. Tuff crowd. Just trading the normal set ups within the waves… I mean within the trends.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    HD Also watch monthly FULL STOCHS 14,3,3 going below 50
    JULIE

  • Brishort
  • BKXtoZERO

    I am at Jury duty today…. Fun fun Fun….making 10$ too

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I charge 2 & 20.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    You better be licensed!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    LOL!

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Remember the death penalty is an option for shop lifting offenses.

  • BKXtoZERO

    D.U.I.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hi BK Jury duty I get paid from employer and serving .. Fun indeed ! Of course I am with the Hang Em High crowd and usually dismissed from serving
    JULIE

  • HD

    Hi Julie. Watching hourly for the normal quantifying markers for rally termination.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hi HD As stated below looks like an ED from December 15th for termination IMO very little left of SPX rally.
    JULIE

  • Brishort

    VIX and Zero seem to agree that absent any catalyst, this market can levitate higher for quite a bit more.

    The “wash rince repeat” of the last 4 days with opening gaps is fascinating.

    Once the morning trading volume disappears, the bots take charge, draw a 60 degrees or so upward trending line and just stick with their line the rest of the day.

    Then in the last 30 minutes, a bit of selling comes to market.
    Overnight general weakness selling into the open.

    Then morning squeeze gyrations and then upward angle short narrow trendline range trading.

    Bottom line:

    Perfect environment for pinning the market in this options expiry week.
    Beware of any directional positioning, the ping-pong needs a catalyst to end.
    Does not see it yet, neither in bonds, fx, or commodities…..

  • HD

    Ok. Iโ€™ll look for it. Iโ€™ve been a very lazy blogger this year. ๐Ÿ™‚

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hi Brishort SPX possible 2639 – 2643 but IMO that will be extremely tough
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    make sure the court has Wi-Fi.
    otherwise, your trades are screwed
    ๐Ÿ˜‰

  • StockTalker

    Whoa

  • Jason13

    Here we go

  • TomW4

    what the hell was that gap up???

    @disqus_qkFlPoMLUZ:disqus , there goes your 2639 – 2643 level. Wasn’t tough seems like.

  • Brishort

    News: US considering lifting China sanctions

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    I see it Tom
    JULIE

  • TomW4

    I hope it stops here….

  • Jason13

    US considering lifting China tariffs

  • evilasevildoes

    Manuchin put

  • Mark Shinnick
  • HD

    Another way to read that is … China calls Trumpys bluff.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    As I type just one point above 2643 … Wow !
    JULIE

  • Brishort

    Forget the news. let’s keep the charts.

    VIX is rising on the latest move. WATCH THE CHARTS

  • Ted

    Yes, Trump is forced to make a deal, otherwise he will shoot himself in the foot.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Mark .. I am not biased .. I read the tape and have targets. I trade both ways long and short
    JULIE

  • Mark Shinnick

    I’m biased…..big time…..but wish I could see it all straight.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • ridingwaves

    another way to read it is, China had to realize there is one market for them, its US…..Winning….play with us or have 1 billion pissed off chinese folks….Trump is doing more for citizens here than the last 3 presidents….especially the last clown and chief…..

  • HD

    OPEX manana and super blood wolf moon eclipse thing Sunday.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    The pullback from 2644 one point above 2643. Been watching the $VIX too and commenting $VIX also
    JULIE

  • HD

    20 point spike VIX has to go up as itโ€™s a byproduct of price action

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • TomW4

    Nice reversal so far. I hope we close red to make it a nice daily reversal candle.

    @disqus_qkFlPoMLUZ:disqus

  • Brishort

    ZERO: Key to keep on top, this move may have longer term chart significance if fully and forcefully reversed…

    Keep on top with VIX 5 minutes charts for pulse of the current market.

  • HD

    Lol. Youโ€™ll defend everything he does. Never seen a neutral comment. His trade deal have absolutely effd most.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Tom price action has fulfilled the ED .. Possible termination
    JULIE

  • evilasevildoes

    zb

  • Brishort

    News event already 50% retraced.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Sp00nman

    I’m all for Trump being tough on the Chinese, the problem is that he can’t take the short term pain required to enact it. Removing tariffs to bring them to the negotiating table is like me giving my kids candy to sit down for dinner. ๐Ÿ˜€

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    Has the bell rung?

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG .. Those three white candles represent three white soldiers which usually indicate an overbought scenario esp intraday
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I’m not licensed to reveal that.
    (cough)

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    it’s just a surrender event at the big horizontal line catracho posted.

  • StockTalker

    /NQ 4hr is juicy, +4 now. Go with the flow, stop moved to today’s low. 6700 should hold water.

  • Ted

    It feels like Fed day. First move is the wrong one???

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    I know news doesn’t matter ๐Ÿ˜‰ but what was the news?

  • Brishort

    You have to give it to Market Makers, they have the mojo to control price!

    Price back to VWAP, back to day’s weignted average!!! incredible.
    All in 30 minutes.

    Market pinning algo back in control. Slow up levitation may now resume…. (Cynic)

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • ridingwaves

    don’t be a hypocrite, you’ve been the exact opposite….`
    the shutdown is all on the dems, they wanted when bozo was there but with trump no, they spent 125 billion to rebuild new orleans a city of 350K on a swamp but not 5 billion on protecting 350M…..the whole reason we are here today is czar 44 executive actions to stop minor deportation, daca and change charge laws in place on immigration, then the idiot and chief at that time change asylum law to include domestic violence and gangs…..

    can’t blame this one bit on Trump, damn liberal sheeple flockers are a disease worse than ebola…

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    What’s the next news event ?

    Putin Announces Engagement to Syrian Beauty Queen
    June Wedding Planned
    Too Much !
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    two MOD’s down below swinging it out.
    I’ll let them delete each other’s comments.
    Muwahahaha.
    (face palm)

  • Ted

    It’s not like him. Just B.S. to push the market higher.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Yellowstone exploding.

  • Brishort

    Agreed, but level is obvious.

    The playbook to look for I currently prefer as a plan is:

    1- Uptrend from 2360 is extremely steep but upward sloping ttrendline not broken.
    2- look for a continuation fake-out AFTER expiry, i.e. early next week.
    3- Look for long DOJI type of action intraday as sign that the fake-out break-out has been completed.

    WHY LOOK FOR A FAKE-OUT?

    Upward trendline is too steep without retracement yet so much potential hopium shenanigans on the news front that the fake break-out is the most likely scenario from past experience.

  • Sp00nman

    From what I can tell seems like that might’ve been fake news regarding reducing or removing tariffs..

  • Sp00nman

    Yep seems like, Treasury spokesperson said no such suggestions..

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I was thinking this morning.
    Some of these rather large V moves….does non-symmetry tip it’s hand?

    if they did, I don’t think quants would reveal such a tidbit.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Anyone able to scalp the move up or down ? LOL!
    JULIE

  • Brishort

    Point taken.

    Tricky market, but keep the trendlines close in the toolbox. They are the best “trigger happy” friend these days.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Yeah Brishort … You be watching the trend lines too Good man !
    JULIE

  • ridingwaves

    Sp00nman, I guess the 980 billion yuan pushed into the chinese monetary system is just a canard over last 2 days….one leads to other…

  • Mark Shinnick

    Got some tvix yesterday. Short EQ’s supertight.

  • Brishort

    Got both! Now flat.

  • BKXtoZERO

    If I wasn’t in jury duty I would have kicked their ass to within 1 point I am sure…..

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Alright Brishort. Hey Happy Retirement !
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Sp00nman

    I don’t quite follow you RW. Either way seems it was fake news regarding removing tariffs. Didn’t make much sense.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Backed-off.

  • HD

    โ€œThe party of personal responsibilityโ€.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Only a fly on the “Wall” in the Oval Office knew about this situation. Too Much !
    JULIE

  • Ted

    A big gap down tomorrow would be a real hoot.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    why not?
    some very large short position was just filled.
    and then a very large long position was liquidated.
    or so I can dream.

    let’s see what Asia does overnight.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    oh.
    Time Check.

  • TomW4

    For once, that’ll be great…

    But it seems that every gap down at the open closed green since the 12/26 low.

  • ridingwaves

    China is feeling the heat…..not us…nothing done with tariffs has affected US citizens one iota……in fact when China hot money gets pulled in from the housing market it will really help Americans…..another Czar 44 change in foreign real estate purchase tax helped fuel that bubble….while all the liberal sheep cry about Trump they forget to look back and really dig into the damage done by the manchurian candidate….btw I didn’t start this but I’m not going to sit by while someone who seems to have forgotten all the ilk that the pigmen fluffler did while he was employed…..facts matter….sorry to include you in it…

  • Ted

    Yes it has.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I’m thinking of a new brand.
    GG Reserve. Need a bottle of alcohol or something.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/3e130ed5e1879e0705ec0fddea30d6b897eb29b0177f8cab07bdab8a092143fa.png
    this could be the ‘hidden’ line. Custom fitting at it’s finest.
    ๐Ÿ˜‰

  • Jason13

    Well that was fun. Someone mentioned a gap down and down…wouldnโ€™t surprise me but I wonโ€™t hold my breath.

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    China will find another market – India, Africa, US companies need access to China more than China needs US – and that will increase with time…

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG Sounds like a “Beer”… GG’s Private Reserve : LOL!
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Leech Beer.
    thanks.
    thanks-a-lot.
    ๐Ÿ™

  • BKXtoZERO

    Well clearly the algos discovered my post about jury duty and chose to attack with me out of the way…. Started soon after my post!

  • Jason13

    You think the Netflix earnings after bell will make an impact?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I can’t say for sure. But I like to say priced-in or priced to perfection.
    sleep well.
    ๐Ÿ˜‰

  • Jason13

    Always do.

  • Ted

    You don’t take a chick like this to lunch. You take her straight to the rack.

  • ridingwaves

    no country has a much money across all demographics compared to us. heck people on welfare make more than 90% of Africans and Indians………sorry Catracho, the Chinese are smart, they see the writing on the wall….they need us more than we need them…

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    In Macy’s, uh yeah. my first thought exactly.

  • Jason13

    Thereโ€™s some sellers sneaking in here according to Zero.

  • HD

    1 marker hit. Not enough to quantify but 2570 is previous 4th.

  • Sp00nman

    RW, I think China is def feeling more heat, but to say we’re feeling no heat I don’t think is true either. China imports a lot of our food and I’d bet there have been some negative impacts to US businesses.

    With that said, I certainly don’t agree with everything Trump does, but I’m 100% with him regarding China and immigration. Policy wise Ob was a disaster, especially foreign policy wise. I think anyone who denies this has their head in the sand. Exiting the rear of the plane was a pretty big slap in the face.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Oregon brothers.
    Big feet for mashing.
    ๐Ÿ˜‰

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG .. Same county as our Chief has been considering possible move LOL!
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    he better soon. harder to move after you get old.

  • evilasevildoes

    $rut interesting

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    I would leave Spain now. He is a U.S. citizen and easy re entry Things are really going to get rough in Europe which he knows and has commented I do not want anything to happen to him or his wife. That would be terrible
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    yeah, I assume she quite an attractive french woman.
    hordes of north africans ravaging the countryside.
    perish the thought.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I’m perfectly safe – my wife protects me. You don’t want to mess with her ๐Ÿ˜‰

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    You have no idea – still a head turner at her age. I am a blessed man…

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Didn’t another guy retire here recently? Boy we are getting old!

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hmmm ! Nothing Yahoo News about Trump China Trade Negotiations … ! Fake !
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    And Stay Safe Chief !
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Piles & Piles of money with private islands?
    it was a safe assumption.
    ๐Ÿ˜‰

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • TimeToPanic

    Evening all. Been out playing a badminton match, we won 9-3 against the University team, men’s doubles, our average age was around 52, no bother though, yours truly undefeated of course.

    Interesting price action, clearly buyers tried to push it, a few shorts were stopped out (poor saps), and then sellers arrived.

    Of more interest to me:

    1. Bradley turn date is today (17th).
    2. My EW guy’s count finished today, it invalidates if ES goes over 2655, he’s expecting a gap down tomorrow, and a quick sell-off.
    3. Full moon over the weekend (the cycle can invert in a bear market) so we should head down into the new moon.
    4. ES/SPX finally hit their H&S necklines today. Other charts to check.

    Although I was premature in buying my QQQ 144 puts, I have averaged down, now hold a very large number indeed. A move down to my target of c.127 on QQQ will be great, especially as I have earmarked 10% of gains (and all future income) to a theonomy project I am working on.

    Good luck bears, we’re smarter than the average bull, we should make some hay now.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG 53.19 possible
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    badmitton? EW?
    and now full beartart?

    delisted & defriended.
    ๐Ÿ˜‰

    http://pm1.narvii.com/5947/b2a5d28b381c52d1ba0e58abe987d7313c4abd49_00.jpg

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    EDIT Miss type 53.19 not 55.19
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    whatever, you know ICHIMOKU much better than me.
    ๐Ÿ˜‰

  • TimeToPanic
  • werewolf

    all I have to say is good luck….I sit on the fence on that one

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Whoever puts out the fake news should go to prison . Hang Em High without a new rope.another option
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    word.

    I’d like to See Musk swinging from a launch pad, crispy burnt.
    Much more entertaining.

    https://www.theverge.com/2018/9/27/17911428/sec-lawsuit-elon-musk-tesla-funding-tweet

  • werewolf

    not sure the US is a safe place to be honest

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG Crispy Critter … LOL!
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Ted

    Along with people who don’t pay their debts.

  • TimeToPanic
  • werewolf

    HOPE IS NOT A STRATEGY

  • TimeToPanic

    Badminton, tough game, super fast.
    Semi-beartart GG, 90% in fizz remember.

  • Ted

    The Wall Street Journal put it out their.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Ted I was reading that in the State of Washington an aggrieved spouse can sue the person who had an adulterous affair Jeff Bezos can be sued by the husband of the woman he slept with.Hope he does IMO Bezos descipable
    JULIE

  • TimeToPanic

    Usury is illegal, fake money too.

  • TimeToPanic
  • evilasevildoes
  • TimeToPanic

    Futs in the RED.

  • evilasevildoes
  • TimeToPanic

    Man, as a person of colour-blindness, that chart is painful, but also psychedelic.

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho
  • TimeToPanic
  • evilasevildoes
  • TimeToPanic

    The long-term trendlines I drew off the 87 crash are in play still, amazing:

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/444a63343432ae14e39d8cdbac84507d92b196f29a5009745ccdae2ceb1fd446.png

  • evilasevildoes
  • werewolf

    I would say based on reversion we are due for a correction after a VERY strong V shape recovery from 2325…that said I cant predict the future and I can t say when. We could go another few handles without any meaningful drop happening. So although probability is high for a few points drop I d rather be flat or long with a tight stop here. short below 2586.

  • TimeToPanic

    124.

  • evilasevildoes
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    easy on the #ManHate Coug.
    we don’t have the whole story.

    Just think, this could all have been prevented by a trip to Hawaii.
    LOL.
    So, when is your next trip?
    #LobsterBlondes

  • TimeToPanic

    Are US markets closed Monday? Could be a long wait if bulls get nervy. Night all.

    PS I’m with Julie, stone Bezos til he’s dead for adultery.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Pretty neat to see what I assume is QE influence over-extending the last tops from the prior slope.

  • Darkthirty

    Might buy her breakfast…โ€ฆโ€ฆโ€ฆโ€ฆโ€ฆโ€ฆโ€ฆ..

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • ridingwaves

    my wife is Chinese, we just went thru the list, nothing we see that would hurt us, I would never buy any food items of any kind from China, California has the best food, vegatables, fruits, nuts, seafood etc in the world, we are not touch as chemicals don’t play in my house…..the writer is already wrong, the dollar has gone down since inception and inflation is waning….
    https://www.scribd.com/document/388885888/US-China-Tariff-List-09-17-18

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    RW We totally eschew prescription drugs manufactured in China as well as other items.RW do you still have a position GS ?
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG You can see the ED (ending diagonal) on your chart I alluded to it earlier in a post
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    huh?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    FLASHBACK 2018

    Valentines is coming up.
    are you still in luvvv with BTC??
    ๐Ÿ˜‰

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/23769d8ef9c9307e4e636b8377176f4634819d3c835db0a4c0f2920e877e7f3c.png

  • sutluc

    Scott Phillips still puts stuff on youtube from time to time as well as other places.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • ridingwaves

    no, done with it….

  • BKXtoZERO

    I thought MKT tops generally push lower like .5 to even .45 ??

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    Anybody post MAx pain ?

  • Darkthirty
  • Sp00nman

    Found him on youtube. Thx!

  • randomuser6789

    I thought you were speaking of a different ED. LOL!
    I was thinking, “Julie – getting kind of edgy!”

  • BKXtoZERO

    Hey Gerb….. testing 1 2 3…. Hey you can contact me through my website: ensaerodynamics.com contact