LT Perspectives: Gone Nowhere Fast

We’ve officially made it through the worst of hell week as the bulk of the CB policy announcements are now behind us. I actually had expected bigger waves over the past two sessions but it’s most definitely not time to get complacent and jump right back into the fray. As we’ve pushed past the mid year mark let’s take a step back and look at the long term price action YTD in several of our key markets. Which can only be summarized in having gone nowhere fast.

Starting with equities all we need to do is to compare the tape between week #1 and week #2 in 2017 in comparison to that of 2018. It’s not just that we’ve barely logged comparatively marginal upside but what matters more is HOW we got here. The difference in volatility is remarkable.

Precious metals and gold in particular have been stuck in a rut for over four years now. Just a few weeks ago it looked as if gold was finally ready to make a run for the coveted 1400 mark but then failed at a key monthly NLBL and has since fallen through weekly support. Quite frankly I don’t see this market get its groove on for quite some time as sellers seem very determined to keep gold locked below the 1400 inflection point.

Silver has been less volatile than gold and over the past year has managed to paint a pretty distinct sideways flag which could resolve either way at this point. Unfortunately the long term bollingers are still fairly wide and I don’t see an urgent reason for resolution here anytime soon.

More long term perspectives below the fold:

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