Long Term Update

The Olympics are on and I couldn’t care less. Let me get this right: You train your butt off for over four years and even if you manage to win you’re not getting paid? While everyone else involved makes out like robber barons? By the way, word has it that even those ‘gold medals’ barely have any real gold in them – they’re made of 92.5 percent silver, 6.16 copper and 1.34 percent gold. Cheap bloody bastards!

Well, if you’re not glued to watching women’s gymnastics (we know who you are) then step into my lair for for another long term chart roll call. I’ll even throw in a few P&Fs for good measure.

Let’s start with the spoos, which as you may recall touched monthly support in June – and then weekly support last week. Thus far both have been holding. Which of course is no guarantee they will but looking at these LT chart I simply can’t wrap my mind around the endless bearish chatter I keep coming across. If we were were painting below both of these markers, then we’d have something to talk about. But as for right now the uptrend appears intact. You may also remember my momo update from last week and little has changed on that end.

FWIW – when it comes to equities I don’t really have much love for either the upside or the downside right now. Which means that equities will remain a secondary market for me until we either see a ramp or real sell off.

Someone mentioned the XLF in the comment section and I decided to produce a P&F for it. what I’m seeing right now is a complete lack of activity – it hasn’t gone anywhere since it triggered that high pole warning in May. But the bullish PO remains intact and technically speaking nothing bearish happens until that PO is disqualified.

Speaking of gold – not those diluted metals but the real stuff: It’s been holding the 100-week SMA plus two weekly NLSL. On the monthly side we got near that the 25-month SMA but never even bothered to test it.

The P&F still dons a bearish PO but if we push above 1630 I expect that to change and flip to a bullish PO. As you probably know we already are positioned to the long side on the daily side and are waiting for the final breach which should accelerate things on all fronts.

Silver has been testing a monthly NLSL for three months now – which incidentally will expire at the end of July.

The bearish PO has been met and long term support was never taken out. Well, there are a two more days left this month but at this point a few long positions with a stop below 26.5 may be good medicine.

Crude breached two weekly NLBLs earlier this month and decided to throw in a little retest to shake out some of the weak hands. Both held however and it’s looking bullish now.

There’s a bullish PO of 100.5 (wow) on our P&F and although we still need a breach of 93 as confirmation it’s looking pretty positive so far. Now compare this chart with the XLF and you’ll see how much activity we’ve had on the commodities side. The highlights by the way are monthly numbers – as you can guess 6 stands for June and 7 for July. This practice provides P&F charts with a bit of time context. In case you wonder A B & C were assigned to October, November, and December respectively.

The EUR is still fighting to paint some signs of a long term low. There’s a weekly NLBL I would love to see breached – well, honestly I’d love to see it fail as I earn in Dollars but who cares what I want!

The P&F has met its bearish PO and is even painting a low pole reversal warning. That is positive and another reason why we are looking for reasons to be long the EUR.

The AUD/JPY shows us a touch of its weekly NLSL – which however held up nicely. The monthly panel reversed not just one but two NLSL and we may even conquer that 25-month SMA. That is pretty bullish in my book!

As you can imagine the FXA is looking bullish and we are getting close to our price objective at 105.9.

The Yen’s P&F – on its own also looking bullish, which of course means that ole bucky took it on the chin again. That was a nice break out after coiling up for weeks. New bullish PO of 132.0 – wow!

Cheers,