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Nothing Thursday
24

Nothing Thursday

by The MoleApril 16, 2015

Well, I got nothing this morning – marketsĀ are running a bit in circles and after scanning through about 10 symbols it was clear to me that this is a textbook morning to just sit out. Big part of the game is knowing when to act and when to sit back and let the tape come to you.

2015-04-16_spoos_update

I almost got clipped on the E-Mini – one single tick kept me from being stopped out, thus far. That is courtesy to my old standing habit to never place a stop at a round number, even on the index futures. That said however, we may get a bit more of a shake out today and this has been a bit of a lottery ticket – so odds of survival of this campaign are low. See you guys later this afternoon.

 

The future is now – so don’t bring a knife to a raygun fight. If you are interested in becoming a Zero subscriber then don’t waste time and sign up here. A Zero subscription comes with full access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.

Cheers,


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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  • http://pugsma.wordpress.com/denalis-turning-points/ denali92

    Opex is doing its best to confuse as usual – we are in the zone for at least a short term top – Opex Wednesday tops are rare, but they can occasionally occur

    We had a brief one day Wednesday top in July 14 – a one day 28pt slide. In general, the timing for an opex related top and pullback is from opex Thursday till the Tuesday (very rarely) the Wednesday after (Feb 15 was the Wednesday). Here are the days of the opex period for the most recent opex tops and pullbacks:

    March 15 – Monday post opex 3 day pullback
    Feb 15 – Wednesday post opex – super small 2 day pullback
    Nov 14 – NONE – rally continuation
    Sept 14 – Opex Friday – MAJOR top and slide in to October
    August 14 – None – rally continuation
    July 14- a minor top on the Wednesday and a bottom on the Thursday and a rally for a week then a bigger top
    June 14 -Tuesday post opex and a 2 day pullback
    May 14- a Tuesday top and a Thursday bottom
    April 14 – Tuesday post opex top and a 6 day pullback
    March 14 – Opex day top and 6 day pullback.

    In general, there is on average one rally continuation per year – they usually occur when an oversold bottom is made the previous week – like in August 14. Bottoms generally, but not always occur during opex week (see Dec 14 – Tuesday and Oct 14 – Wednesday).

    The best edge for April opex is actually opex bottoms and rallies in to late April (2010) or early May (2009, 2011 and 2012) or later -(see 2013 and 2014.) The opex periods from 2009 to 2012 saw post opex buying opportunities. While 2013 was an opex Thursday bottom and 2014 was an early opex period bottom and a small post opex top thanks to the Good Friday holiday.

    I realize Mole does not approve of my approach – but as I like the site and am getting value from it and the Zero, I will occasionally try to provide some potentially useful input, particularly around opex, employment, FOMC and holidays.

    Right now, there is no edge – yesterday was a low likelihood top… so for now, I am just waiting to see if an opex historical edge appears. If not, I will just stay flat.

    -D

  • Skynard

    Getting long again /NG on a retest of 2.57

  • M E

    I could use a quiet day in the market…

  • Billabong

    You want quiet, you want quiet? You can’t handle quiet! (“A Few Good Men” parody)

  • Billabong

    As I sit on a plane to Utah …. quietly reading a trend following book.

  • Skynard

    Is anyone paying attention to that hourly div we have??? It is FN huge!

  • Skynard

    As most retail traders will miss:)

  • Skynard

    Big move coming /ZW, currently +7 at the moment:)

  • Skynard

    490 is the trigger

  • Skynard

    /NG triggered long

  • Skynard

    Gag filled, MWAH

  • evilasevildoes

    crude target on continuous?
    still 64?

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    How’s everyone? I’ve been running errands and am just now catching up.

  • captainboom

    Any chance you have percentages for those stats? i.e. Percent up or down for each data point.

  • captainboom

    I’ve been taking daily screenshots of the Zero for some time now. I was thinking yesterday that I need to print those out and manually draw in the divergences on the hourly, and compare to what happens in the days after the divergences form. Being able to quantify how much change in SPX typically happens, could be an edge.

    It’s a project that will have to wait until after fireworks season… I’m ass deep in alligators. Checking in while I eat a sandwich at my desk.

  • evilasevildoes

    your 64 target on crude what srtike was that?

  • mugabe

    btw, ref your comment about reading Quixote (good luck that that), a great book which is not too hard at all to read is La Fiesta del Chivo by Vargas Llosa – thriller based on the life of the dictator Trujillo in the Dominican Republic. Beautifully written and a real page turner.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    _______ _______ _______ _______ _______ _______ _______ _________
    ( ____ ( ____ )( ____ ( ____ | /| ( )( ____ ( ___ )__ __/
    | ( /| ( )|| ( /| ( /| ) ( | | () () || ( /| ( ) | ) (
    | (__ | (____)|| (__ | (_____ | (___) | | || || || (__ | (___) | | |
    | __) | __)| __) (_____ )| ___ | | |(_)| || __) | ___ | | |
    | ( | ( ( | ( ) || ( ) | | | | || ( | ( ) | | |
    | ) | ) __| (____//____) || ) ( | | ) ( || (____/| ) ( | | |
    |/ |/ __/(_______/_______)|/ | |/ |(_______/|/ | )_(

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    crude rolls over every month – so pick your poison.

  • mugabe

    hmm .. dunno where the avatar came from

  • http://pugsma.wordpress.com/denalis-turning-points/ denali92

    I have a HUGE amount of data on opex…. I generally do further digging when a situation comes up in terms of the likely day for a turn or a top or a bottom. Sadly, this week has been a confusing one that is providing NO CLARITY yet…

    Here are some general stats Since Jan 2007:

    Turns have occurred 94% of the time
    There has been a turn during opex week 56% of the time
    There has been a turn from one to three days post opex 60% of the time

    21% of the time there has been an opex turn and a post opex turn. Last time was April 2014.

    For a turn, there must be a clear change in direction either for 25 SPX pts and at least one day or at a minimum for a few days if the turn occurs during a low vol environment and occurs over the period of a few days (ie. A Wednesday top and a Monday post opex bottom)

    If you have a specific stat since 2007 that you are interested in, if is easy to do, I am happy to provide.

    Best general rule: Strong sell off in to opex – a bottom is coming. Strong rally in to opex – a minor top is likely some time between opex Thursday and the Tuesday post opex.

    -D

  • evilasevildoes

    thx

  • captainboom

    Thanks. I didn’t have anything specific I was looking for. Was just curious about more specific definition and analysis. Defining what a ‘turn’ is in terms of SPX points is helpful.

  • http://pugsma.wordpress.com/denalis-turning-points/ denali92

    The opex turn works extremely well about 8 times a year. March was a perfect example. Monday post opex short and a short sharp move down to a Thursday bottom…. December was even better with that Tuesday bottom and we were 80pts higher before you knew it…. though December’s turn was a bit early…. I must admit that while I caught it well – I was thinking a Wednesday bottom was more likely…

    April is not looking promising so far…. but we shall see…

    -D