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Quiet Day
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Quiet Day

by The MoleFebruary 6, 2019

Wednesday’s sessions was pretty quiet and I received reports of purported distribution in the form of large sell orders as we are approaching the final inflection point of ES 2730. The journey higher from the lows at ES 2340.5 has been fairly uneventful thus far and since markets rarely continue to move in a straight line for long a revisit of either ES 2700 or ES 2745 is in the cards.

I’m actually writing this post on Wednesday evening near the closing bell as I have scheduled an appointment with my sadistic Spanish dentista for tomorrow morning. Chances are that I won’t be able to form cohesive thoughts (or chew solid food) for a while after the procedure so here are a few pointers ahead of time:

The Zero indicator shows us only minimal participation all through Wednesday which was marked by wild spasmodic swings. However the entire session was limited to merely 10 handles, so it probably felt/looked worse than it truly was.

The green boxes mark consecutive failures by the bears to exploit several textbook bear setups. It’s starting to get expensive for them and if the current one is added to this list then there won’t be enough butter in hell to soothe the hellfire that is in store for them.

The long term chart could frankly not be any clearer right now. The S&P has mirrored its preceding decline, reversing half of its prior losses, whilst posting the best January in 30 years. The bears are in shambles at this point, having shorted this rally all the way up.

The final inflection point lies directly ahead of us and is marked via the 25-week SMA which is is in earshot of two nearly overlapping monthly Net-Line Buy Lines at 2702.5 and 2709.5. The former was successfully conquered by the January candle, which officially puts a monthly buy signal on our books.

That said, the odds of immediate continuation here are iffy IMNSHO and it’s more likely that we are going to end up with a massive inverted H&S pattern, which historically has a success rate of over 71%. So if we see a reversal here then I would see it as a prime accumulation opportunity. Assuming of course a convincing spike low near medium term support has been established.

How About Them Bears?

The bear is wounded but not out just yet. A drop through ES 2600 would be needed to put the bearish scenario back on the table and a failed retest to make it the most plausible. It is possible of course, and admittedly it would screw the majority of market participants. But is it likely?


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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  • BKXtoZERO

    I am ready…………

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    me too! The last few days have been very quiet for me – just watching..

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    EU cuts GDP forecasts, BOE also – USA GDP slower than last year…which way is the world going? Which way are markets pricing?

  • Darkthirty

    went flat at 2712, waiting for a signal……Coulda ran on margin, but still don’t like what I was watching yesterday

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    DAX daily – most markets looking similar – still lower highs – so far.. close (11550 – would be sign of change in behaviour)… but as said need a break down to confirm resumption https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/856a055437f63a5a2ebba96b4b72512504d84267c208e17538ef8b7aab276ad4.png

  • Darkthirty

    You’re talking fundamentals. Do they actually matter anymore? That’s an honest question….

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    not on a daily basis – but if the market is pricing future earnings then fundamentals are all part of the jigsaw puzzle –

  • Darkthirty

    The big picture has to include the tapped out consumer, in that case. Commodities are rising = inflation…

  • evilasevildoes

    cl hit 53.62

  • Yoda

    Quiet day? I bet the opposite is gonna happen

  • HD
  • zzezzezz

    SPY staying in the channel… BTMFD?
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/f1b548859d75be99b7c6b97ff09202ba0e952c1e0bdb4590e7f423653fc25de0.jpg
    EDIT: I meant SPY, not IWM. Corrected.

  • Jason13

    Heavy selling coming in…

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Yup Jason
    JULIE

  • randomuser6789

    Maybe. At 1.2 on the 1min zero, it is not particularly heavy. Lucy has pulled the football from the bears many times in the last several weeks/months.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gqzA1VOiC-M

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    thank God I bought some QID.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hi GG ! Glad to see you !
    JULIE

  • Edd

    Nice to see ya GG

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    $BKX Looks like a failure on a retest of January high. $SOX pulling back from upper channel in chart shown yesterday
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    just a drive by shooting quip.
    Keep the faith traders.
    and God’s speed Mole. (dental surgery is not fun)

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Ted

    Julie, what is your closest level to 2632?

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hi Ted 2735 was an important level just 3 points away from 2738 high. Two levels closest to 2632 (2639) (2627)
    JULIE

  • Ted

    Thanks

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Ted 2609 is a very important level as was 2735
    JULIE

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Hey guys – how’s everyone?

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX 60 min 55 ema broken to the downside along with 60 min MACD below signal line and it’s center line. About time
    JULIE

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Looks like I’ve missed quite a day!

  • BobbyLow

    Now hitting 52.25. 🙂

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    That was for yesterday (Wednesday)

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Great Chief ! How are you ? Dentist procedures always tough ! I am scheduled for this coming Monday for cleaning
    JULIE

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    We didn’t do the surgery today – postponed to next Tuesday. It’s a long and boring story, so I won’t bother telling it.

    That’s some heavy selling today!

  • Sp00nman

    Back to ~2687 which was a key weekly level that Sir Mole posted a while back.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Chief we knew that there would be profit taking. Stupid not to.
    JULIE

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I was expecting a down leg – but this down push is quite a bit heavier than anticipated.

  • HD

    Is that FAGIX thing still leading?

  • Darkthirty

    In other news…KK’s ass just got fatter

  • BKXtoZERO

    I love it!

  • BKXtoZERO

    VERY well… Thanks!

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    Yes..when next rally comes will give more idea what market is doing..

  • BKXtoZERO

    Out of half TVIX from 36 to 40.4

  • HD

    Killer!

  • BobbyLow

    Doing good Boss. Was just thinking about what you said about how often the not so great looking setups become pleasant surprises. That’s how I felt yesterday afternoon before going short oil. 🙂

    Another thing we’ve discussed is how important it is that once a system is in place to take every trade as they come period.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Well OBVIOUSLY sell offs happen when I go to the dentist. Next one scheduled for Tuesday 😉

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Yup, the best looking setups repeatedly blow up in my face. I the end though I think there is no correlation – positive or negative. Best to simply stop thinking and trade the damn system as pre-defined.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I just checked stockcharts and it has not been updated yet.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Out of the rest at 40.5 +10% day after back peddling for a while. Somehow I even got 15$ out of that lame sideways area a week ago. Lots of small dings but eventually, the Ayatollah gets his man!

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX If a legitimate pullback then at least a 38.2% pullback minimum approx 2590.
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    Thanks for tipping us off

  • nirav777
  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Very nice, Nirav. I usually wait for a price response. Sell offs like these can be deceptive and you do also want to see the signal > the zero mark.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Long crude via UWT 12.35 BTFD!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Crude at a good point here, higher low than monday and higher low that last tuesday. Hold it or die….

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX Oversold 60 min could be a bounce 2687 – 2685 but to a lower high
    JULIE

  • Jason13

    Yes we’ll see where they want resistance. VWAP?

  • BKXtoZERO

    Long UGAZ 27.73, ready for Nutty Gas to do it’s thing. I had a tiny position on this, 100 shares thankfully that I am down on from around 36.9 as an investment LOL…. Long in a larger way here but with stop at 2.5 Nat Gas

  • TomW4

    Finally!

  • HD

    SPX closed red yesterday, fagix green. FWIW.

  • HD

    The larger 2-4 TL from the Dec low was cut today also. Under 2681 will draw larger fibs. JmhEWo

  • BKXtoZERO
  • Darkthirty

    Better edit that abbreviation……..

  • Darkthirty

    200 DMA isn’t broke yet…. ES VWAP 2704

  • Sp00nman

    We don’t trade on news here, and I think the market saw this coming. News came out today I guess the US and China are far apart on a trade deal and looks like won’t get done by March 1st. Shocker..

  • BKXtoZERO

    Out of crude long flat……..(UWT) not looking good

  • Jason13

    Zero lagging? Not picking up this up move.

  • Jason13

    Fixed.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Darkthirty

    Destroying files………..

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Julie’s gonna flip.

    I always told her to short the weak. Muwahaha.

  • BKXtoZERO

    You are BACK! welcome back Gerboloa

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    only for dental visits and digital bank runs.
    😉

  • HD

    I trade news. Why not.

  • Jason13

    I dont like this action….out of short for small gain…will re-enter but I need better confirmation on Zero.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Catracho Going to let USO come to me looking for a pullback approx 10.46 There was an expanding triangle on daily Today’s bounce off lower trend line of expanding triangle. Bearish below 11.16
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Jason I knew there would be a bounce 2687 – 2685 Below 2685 is bearish Watching closely IMO the bounce appears corrective
    JULIE

  • Jason13

    Let’s hope. I dont mind the wait. I don’t need exact top or bottom.

  • Yoda

    Because:
    1- News do not matter. Whatever is bound to happen will happen anyway regardless of the news of the day (Good/bad news are brushed off)
    2- You cannot beat HFT bots when a news comes out

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    A confirmation of a bullish move IMO would be the 60 min MACD back above it’s center line. Bearish below it’s center line
    JULIE

  • Yoda

    I doubt the market is done with it yet

  • Yoda

    I remember what happened last time you mentioned a quiet day: all hell broke loose

  • Yoda

    Mole going to the dentist is the new “Mole going on holidays”

  • BKXtoZERO

    I saw it. I tried to tell everyone….

  • Darkthirty

    PPT are working it

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Jason SPY 10 and 60 min charts still below VWAP
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    $SOX bearish Kicking and below 5 ema and below the gap window
    JULIE

  • Jason13

    Coiling big time..

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Not sure if anyone noticed dip buyers came into today a few points above the daily 13 ema. Still bearish below the 5 ema. IMO these dipsters AKA Hopesters are late to the party …
    JULIE

  • HD

    I disagree. It’s old logic and the market is always adapting. This market is very atuned to the news.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Modest pull back – there could be follow through downside tomorrow unless we see some strong activity into the close.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/a6fe358164062495d36ff449b5a91f731e3ad05530fb06764e8db526d5e12bd3.png

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Hehehe – there will be plenty of opportunity this year as I’m getting a temporary crown as well as braces on the bottom to shift some teeth.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Chief Bonds being bought today continuing their uptrend
    JULIE

  • Ted

    Transports just took a hit.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Vampire ! LOL!
    JULIE

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    The ZB is looking like a possible break out candidate here. FYI – I have been pimping this chart to my subs for a while now:

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c2c4a47e600c3f0ab0c46073c3a8647078cf4bc1139e4cbacfa9aaaac02558cb.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Thanks Chief I always watch the bond market. Many do not realize that it’s 7 times larger then the equity market Again Thanks Chief
    JULIE

  • Yoda

    I am sure Ms. Mole is delighted about the prospect of not losing body parts anymore 😉

    https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/c/cd/Jaws_james_bond.jpg

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Where did you get my picture?

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Well since you mentioned bonds and all. That’s from an old Bond movie.

  • Sp00nman

    Ya sure looks like bonds wanna head higher. I wouldn’t bet on the “bond vigilantes” making a comeback.

  • Ted

    Looks like another failed bear attempt.

  • TomW4

    Looks like it. Another ramp up at EOD.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I dunno – wouldn’t want to make a call just yet. First session down – looks incomplete thus far. Let’s see what happens overnight.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I wanted to add – VWAP capture however was key or we would most definitely continue lower.

  • Yoda

    If I tell you, I’d have to change identity real quick

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    IMO NO Ted 60 min chart pattern a bear flag beneath 60 min Ichi Cloud baseline 21 @ 2713 matching the daily 5 ema @ 2713. 60 min MACD below it’s center line and signal line. Today’s bounce overlapping waves not impulsive
    JULIE

  • Ted

    Yup – i wouldn’t want to bet on it either way.

  • TomW4

    Thanks for posting the absolute levels beside your EMA’s @disqus_qkFlPoMLUZ:disqus .

  • Yoda

    To me the market is very attuned to rape 95% of those who play it. As the old saying goes, “what is known by all is not worth knowing”.
    For us retail rats, we have no edge against the machines anyways. So I’d rather focus on something that works.

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    DOW broke a trend line and attempt at recovering into the close; before that traded above a down trend line (throw over) , next move ? still uncertain.. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/be0dbc8fa152b9772609b67197f12d0257e3bcd1a62d8303b9426db3892c3481.png

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    DAX looks more bearish ..broke up trend – but at support – again follow through needed or a re-test of recent highs (fail).. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/7389dc7203e10c2ad58d4dc196d5b0876324ee74d876c00806f0e121dc60f4fd.png

  • Jason13

    Yeah its in a dead man’s area…overnight is key with today’s tape. I did a long near the end at 2696 but I’ll keep a tight stop. I didn’t like the fact that it didn’t even re-visit the 50 MA on the 60 min which was a definite bounce area throughout this ramp. Plus the Zero action was not that decisive.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Your welcome Tom
    JULIE

  • Jason13

    Besides, I’d love to short at a higher price….

  • Darkthirty

    I’m not fighting for fun anymore, got a lot of gaps where there should be teeth. Did you check into implants at all?

  • Ted

    I see that flag. At least it did not recapture the 100 day sma.

  • Jason13

    Just a heads up for you guys- I’ve been stalking Platinum for awhile now and there is, IMO, a huge medium to longer term low risk-high reward buy here in the 750-800 area. I’m looking for this metal to break recent lows to hit sell stops and then quickly reverse to go on a bigger run. I will be putting in a large position if that’s the case. Just in case anyone was looking for other markets.

  • bankwalker

    comment 100

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Jason As GG Knows Platinum is a metal I trade It’s a good one
    JULIE

  • evilasevildoes
  • Mark Shinnick

    Are you taking a position based on that?

  • ridingwaves

    your going to lose a lot of money on that trade eventually, you need to start stalking symbols and indexes that are not built to kill retail……..

  • ridingwaves

    a missive by Kudlow on trade talks is all it was….I wouldn’t buy into it too much..

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys The Banks are key Must watch relative performance with $SPX Since January 28 under https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/a1eade6e2d242f31c055825f13b3931856ec7bbe419c5e0618b4479203e4f2ba.png performing JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    Natural gas seasonality should be bottoming here. Retail folks think that winter is where it peaks but pros buy nat gas ahead of when it will be needed (winter) so those retail cold weather guessers are getting killed right now. I plan on holding a portion long here.
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/01c9be4a2f9171e33da2be97fd555e5a6c201e03e44aae114459b426d86959de.gif

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys watch $NYMOT going below 0 will confirm a move down now approx 57
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hi BK Nice chart Looking for USO a pullback approx 10.45 Letting it come to me. The positive divergences RSI and MACD invariably mean an advance to the daily 55 and or 89 ema’s Yup right to the 89 ema Again BK good diligence Natty Gas
    JULIE

  • Sp00nman

    Yep, RW said the same yesterday I believe. Looks like a nice jump in volume on yesterday’s candle.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    BAC A bullish falling wedge at it’s approx 34 ema and upper gap window. Breaking above upper trend line of wedge will also break above it’s 5 ema . Going to watch BAC as it’s the Big Dog of the Banks which is a very important clue Everyone Have A Great Weekend JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/2d64a8fc9582fb548a26d5603cf347a6dd8bf1bbbcd65d01bf8336adba4b01ee.png