Statistics For Week 4-2020

It’s MLK day and I don’t really expect anyone to show up here today. However the weekly stats have been run and are waiting in the bullpen plus Tony promised to post a few specials throughout the remainder of this week. And let me tell you – it’s very actionable material you’re not going to want to miss out on. But for today let’s kick back and peruse the statistical odds for week #4 2020.

Starting out with the Sharpe Ratio which stands at 0.15 – not bad and probably somewhere slightly above the annual median.

What has me more jazzed however are the weekly % positive stats, which come out at a solid 64%. You already know what I’m going to say: That’s right, I’d take those odds any day.

SKEW is negative which isn’t very surprising.

What is surprising however are the occasional negative outliers as show on our weekly histogram. So let’s dig a bit deeper:

Here are all the weekly SPX closes since 1950. Last year we actually printed a negative week but it was nothing compared with some of the occasional drawdowns over the past 70 years.

So although week #4 is positive on average it has the potential to take greedy pigs to the woodshed. Since we are already scraping the stratosphere in equities I recommend to stay the course but manage your positions conservatively and strictly by the rules.

Now for my intrepid subs here are out top stock victims for the week:

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