Technical Difficulties

Not playing a word game actually, turns out my VPS hosting provider is experiencing a network meltdown this morning and thus I’m unable to log into my NinjaTrader setup. So I switched over to my TOS installation which is also configured as an emergency backup. The data feed is not as precise but it’ll do in a pinch. Rule #1 when it comes to running a trading business: Always expect the unexpected and that at the worst possible time.

Now given that we are supposed to be in a bullish week according to our seasonal stats yesterday’s session was quite a disappointment. Then again last week was supposed to be bearish and look where we ended up.

A mere cursory look at the volume profile chart shows us above a shallow volume hole which should have propelled us higher. However it seems the bots had other plans:

With the exception of last Friday we seem to be experiencing a lot of non-human activity simply judging by the smooth appearance of both the UVOL and DVOL curves. I’m not one to blame ‘evil market makers’ but do believe that we should see a lot more ‘organic’ activity this close to the December roll-over in the E-Mini.

Implied volatility vs. the SPX has continued to point lower since last Thursday, which was interesting given that we advanced higher on Thursday and Friday. We may be looking at participants ‘selling into strength’ as it’s commonly called.

All the above opens the door for a possible retest of the ES 2936 mark. Should we get it then I’d be game for a long position in the E-Mini or a vertical spread in the Spiders.

In the interim I caution everyone from getting drawn into stupid campaigns. If things don’t make sense simply take a step back and wait until they do. Remember, we are not truly out of the summer doldrums until we hit October.