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Technical Issues
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Technical Issues

by The MoleJune 19, 2018

Little did I know what I was heading into when I wrote about ‘hell week’ yesterday. Right in the middle of the session (Murphy’s Law never fails) the Zero indicator feed suddenly died and I subsequently was unable to get into my remote VPS. I filed a support ticket with the hosting firm right away but have not received an answer as of today. None of the phone numbers on their site work and it starts looking like the company just went dark overnight.

I actually suspected this much yesterday already as that firm had always been a bit iffy, but I had stuck with them over the years as they were the only ones I could find able to set up a custom hypervisor installation with a high resolution headless graphic driver. If that all went completely over your head then I don’t blame you, I’m pretty technical as you know and all that virtualization stuff it’s completely outside of my domain as well.

Turns out Scott had a VPS running there as well and we both basically are finding ourselves with our pants down at our ankles. On my end I will have to probably lease a (much more expensive) bare metal server now in order to run ThinkOrSwim (which in turn runs the Zero indicator of course) with some decent high resolution screen estate, i.e 1600×1200 or larger. It’s a long and sordid story but doing this with RDP doesn’t work as the screen scraper just stops after you log out.

In the interim, if you’re a Zero sub don’t despair as I’m running it from my local system until I am able to find a new remote solution. Suffice to say however that I was sweating bullets and didn’t sleep much last night as I have a bunch of subs who depend on the Zero and nobody ever enjoys getting angry emails. If you were affected yesterday then accept my sincerest apologies, and trust that I’m working hard to get things back on track. In any case, if there are any issues at all today don’t hesitate to contact me right away at admin@.

Nice little head fake there yesterday and I already started to feel like an idiot talking about hell week and statistical precedence and all. Unfortunately, for anyone unwisely chasing this higher, the E-Mini turned on a dime after hours, breached below our 2765 inflection point, and didn’t look back until touching ES 2736.

It then managed to produce a juicy looking spike low but I’d be foolish to even think about a long position here given that both Draghi and Powell are scheduled to speak tomorrow.

In terms of support we have the 25-day SMA where we are pinned right now, but if things turn ugly there’s the 100-week SMA at 2725 and then there’s nothing for a long time until 2600. I don’t think that is a high probability scenario but I would not rule out a drop to 2725 especially right after Jerome ‘Kryptonite’ Powell has the mic.

Crude stopped me out at break/even last week and it has since bounced back just to drop back down again. So quite a bit of whipsaw but what’s interesting is that it’s happening right underneath the 100-daySMA, which is in the process of dipping.

Meanwhile it’s hugging the 25-week SMA and if that one gives we could be in for a wild ride lower. I’m pretty sure Nicolás Maduro is watching this chart whilst freebasing Zoloft.

Speaking of losers here’s silver which didn’t even give me a courtesy bounce before stopping me out within a session. I did however anticipate that and had cautioned everyone to not exceed 0.3% on what clearly was a long shot lottery ticket.

Natgas is also a stop out but at least I was able to eke out 0.8R in the process. I had high hopes for this one but apparently that upper 100-day BB was more strain that it could bear. Well, they don’t call it the widow maker without a reason – it runs quicker than a hare.

ZB almost caught me as well but thanks to my advanced AI based campaign management system I call ‘SkyNet’ I am now back near the +1R mark. Stop doesn’t go to break/even – it’s staying there, sorry for the incorrect label on the chart (lack of sleep).

And finally USD/JPY is trying to give me a hard time again and I just about had it with this campaign. I’ve now put my stop right below the recent spike low near 109.6 where I will be happy to pull the cord if it deigns to drop lower once again.

Bottom Line

Messy tape and volatility to spare this week, hide all your pets and small children and don’t even think about making any big bets. Keep your cool knowing that better times are on the horizon. Alright, I’m off to the gym and after that I need to deal with tech issues as you know.


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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  • evilasevildoes

    no worries it always happens when we know it will lol

  • Mark Shinnick

    Ok, yang and short miners have stirred into outside upper ranges, long those, so heads up about all that.

  • ridingwaves

    I’ll look at Yang, miners could be a short into august at least…Meanwhile Potus is blowing up my wheat trade…..I might get stopped out after was was an orderly rise but a tariff crazed sell off.. I hate to say this but all this is tied into bonds again….bonds and inflation
    the 2 things the fed cares about…

  • Mark Shinnick

    Track on drv and entered a little of that this morning….maybe more soon. I’ve got this basic thesis (bias) of rate shok everything looks really vulnerable too …Evil for sure.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    For f…k sake. I was in the middle of my workout and had to come home. Network adapter on my system’s VM crashed. No f..ing idea why but I’m pissed. Anyway, Zero working again now.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    This one’s dedicated to Mole’s Zero & anyone who might be trapped balls-to-the-wall long and not admitting it!
    😉
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z9nkzaOPP6g
    -GG

  • ridingwaves

    I looked at a chart last night from 60’s where UE was under 4% and with it came a sudden spike to 5% inflation rate

  • Mark Shinnick

    Ahh….denial……would be a great thing see actually keep playing- out

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I’m here nursing the fucking thing. Was at the gym when the network adapter on my system crashed. Had to run back and fix it. Having a really shitty week/month…and you guys don’t even know the half of it.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/e4180242b8a49033585a0c62c2668489dcc22e8d205370d42a7a2eac35d83587.gif

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • ridingwaves

    I don’t think Longs are too worried, 2740 uber important though…and btw, 50 cent vix trader just made another haul on his vix bets last week….

  • Mark Shinnick

    One of the worlds great words.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    yes, look to the left. 2740’ish horizontal support.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yeah, but the thing to keep in mind is recovery from a never-before / no-precedent environment of still-decreasing velocity. The demographics are all different.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Me thinking that is all ripe for denial.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    It’s a long story but I can’t even use RDP on that VPS, it logs off the graphic driver after you log out. It’s a very complicated setup and maybe using a USB based mini PC would be more efficient.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Agreed wherever you can eliminate the vendor’s server fuckery and so many potential third party varibles….gives up too much control.

  • Yoda

    We have a clear divergence between bucky and 10-y yields. To me this signals that the DX’s bull move is to stall or reverse anytime now

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/a4fc3f70b1c074c63b4f0bd76a7e13aeb6bbe183c708320340fad3e03a4472a2.png

  • Mark Shinnick
  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Dow back in the red for 2018.

  • ridingwaves

    not sure that chart is accurate…decreasing velocity is being gamed by the smart folks, thus why QE never was about helping the economy….it was about velocity and volatility….while taking the junk off the banks…

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yep, everyone else ma and pop and retirement the bag holders like never before. My real worry is the drying-up of liquidity.

  • Darkthirty

    Surprised me. Watching ES do push-ups, 1-2,1-2,1-2. expecting a hit at 2782 top of the channel. All my scalp indicators were short term bullish……missed the first 15 pts

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    How’s my crew?

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I remember dancing to this shit, I’m feeling OLD!

  • Mark Shinnick

    Looking for sound Calif banks with no derivative exposure…

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • ridingwaves

    Union bank…not a California bank….but definitely more conservative when it comes to what you speak..

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Damn I just looked up my bank and I’m horrified.

  • http://www.linkedin.com/in/sharondsessions/ Sharon

    I don’t use any banks anymore only credit unions. One Texas CU and one national CU Chartway.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Volatility nearing breakout.

  • BKXtoZERO

    What did I miss??? I just got back into cell phone range yesterday on my way home and saw that bounce back into the close. I was thinking hard and tried buying TVIX at the close with less than 1 minute left…. missed it! unreal. It hit the middle bollinger band today from the lower. Maybe we should all let each other know when we are traveling on vacation. Anyway, I had fun. Wwe stayed in a really nice cabin right ON the Twisp River in WA state in what is called Methow Valley area.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/de02df6cb5a2b341026fe888cab578c2a14e7cf7333b183b457d30d3267b607a.jpg https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/58c646f5e8eee934d785c90cd5d504bcde967de6ad923fbb85f140d4ecd49df7.jpg https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/bc17fa0c72b15815e4621b8f872484d2318be56cff068a521af3781c1b61cae5.jpg https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c0ea17c0d4d0f7773c38338e342c839a0118d2166e3325018cc8b0c271fb6932.jpg

  • Mark Shinnick

    Looks like you missed nothing at all by comparison 🙂

  • ridingwaves

    I don’t know if this can push too much lower into that circle area to buy but have a bid in multiple areas. The weekly is very bullish chart but a little overbought. It bounced off the 100sma 40.62 on weekly today, I had my bid a bit under and never filled..fundamentally strong and
    cheap relative to PE and growth https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/edd6cb6c3f92dace8ad124669325a0fb7a91cd8e90c95e67c9db9a2d29989883.png

  • Darkthirty

    MA crossover says short also

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Doing fine Chief Looks like finally a sell signal GVIP
    JULIE

  • ridingwaves

    I would like to get in where chande is at 50 or a bit above….it will close the first gap and most likely the second, not a day trade…buy and hold, sell on strength.

  • Darkthirty

    Day trade on a daily chart? Zoom in, it’s all fractals, no?

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    DK Looks like 3 waves up from April to 50 i.e. corrective.
    JULIE

  • Darkthirty

    One of the problems in counting waves is that Cs and 3s look the same, have to watch the larger context or bail on all 3rd waves. I use TA, corrective alternation, et al to supplement the trajectory/target

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    RW We have had thunderstorms which are typical in June. It’s about 55 degrees with some showers today. Tomorrow will kickoff warmer weather 70 ‘s and 80’s which is very nice. Very seldom above 90 in summer
    JULIE

  • ridingwaves

    a long term play back up to 90 area…, not a day trade….the targets are above, the issue is the gap has no volume, so it will be accumulated here for a push thru the pps volume gap, the 2 big candles on heavy volume were big money…the sell off is minimal volume….

  • ridingwaves

    I’ll be up there every once in a while…..just took new gig for that region…

  • HD

    GM from PB. Different vibe on the coast for sure. Liking it. “June gloom”hitting the markets too? https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/fe17beda4e086877860e56497faa9df476ac78e23604d6a014d0e70d7c5c1a26.jpg

  • Darkthirty

    Got a gap at 26, I think. Can’t tell with candles……..

  • HD

    Wheat, stayed choppy and broke its multi month TL and lost 10%, swiftly! Looking left. I’m looking for a bounce. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/d554fd4d4ffae6da8c8decbcc4e43c81910710a215a20e7641217a81e395e073.jpg

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    RW Have you ever heard or seen of heat lightening ? Lightening that is horizontal across the sky. I have never seen it on the West Coast but Western Oregon gets the least amount of lightening of anywhere in the U.S . GG might see it in the AZ mountains. Typical at dusk in MT in the summer. One of natures quirks esp in the Rockies
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    DK I just look for impulses and corrections and do not count
    JULIE

  • randomuser6789

    I have seen heat lightning many times in Houston. I love it.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Unreal as Texas gets it too Beautiful to see
    JULIE

  • ridingwaves

    not a big fan of lightening, had to come off a mountain in Colorado because of it, uncle was struck there and has permanent gold necklace tattoo around his neck, woke up on the forest floor…lucky to live….

  • ridingwaves

    there is a gap, don’t think it will see below 34 again….

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    RW In the Rocky Mtns you can usually sense a lightening strike nearby before it occurs. The ambient temp changes and the air becomes musty then Kaboom !
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    sheez

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    UNG I am underwater in (long) target for decline 23.28 the daily 55 ema which matches the weekly Ichi Cloud conversion line (8) and weekly 21 ema. I should have taken profits but I see a trend change Natty Gas
    JULIE

  • ridingwaves

    this and all other commodity long plays were definitely affected by news…..in error I should have put more thought into the bid I left open for 6.50, I even mentioned China would hit back, didn’t even listen to my self…..shot down in flames….stop never triggered though so not in bad shape. going to rethink strategy of leaving bid open after more than one day..

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Down approx 50 cents UNG USO short working GLD long down slightly https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/ab0f711b7d828bdd707bd727833fc1e76d1824f67db52b4ac61f1613883f0a62.png JULIE

  • randomuser6789

    People often report hearing a buzzing before the strike. I heard the buzz at 14000′ but did not get struck. Thankful.

  • HD

    That TL kept me objective.

  • ridingwaves

    the selloff volume is not earth shattering, the trend is changing…

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    RW I concur been watching the selling volume too and support levels. GLD I am expecting an oversold bounce leading to a nice rally. GLD weekly chart is bullish Shown GLD daily chart JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/996fcbaa8b143f8aa92a3ed6bcd1216abe2a4eb4f59796ae0b49c923103d2402.png

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    So I ended up ordering an Azulle Access Plus and will run that one here locally. It’s not the perfect solution but at least I have full control over it.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Empty without any annoying tourists and not too much sun, my kind of beach!!

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Sounds like fun until it zaps ya.

  • ridingwaves

    staying away from gold or silver comments, not going to look at it until August…good luck…

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Did he at least gain a super power or anything?

  • Mark Shinnick

    Amazing. Speedy-and memory enough?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    8/10 from Tom’ Guide.

    After Intel introduced the first Compute Stick, in 2015, there wasn’t a groundswell of competition imitating the tiny stick PC. That’s a real shame, since the idea of a PC you can stash in a pocket or hide behind any monitor or TV is an intriguing opportunity in our increasingly mobile world. One competitor, the Azulle Access PC, manages to not only ape Intel’s design but also offer better performance and more ports. It’s an impressive feat that makes the Azulle Access Plus the best stick PC on the market.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    one moment, your sitting at RSI 67 and life is looking positive, with 70+ plus in sight.
    ..aaand then it’s not.

    https://i.ytimg.com/vi/TGwZVGKG30s/hqdefault.jpg

  • Darkthirty

    If it works for ya! impulse waves are 1-3-5 AND A-C. All fractally encompassed…..it’s a zen thing! : D

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    so Beautiful. (GG weeps with tears)

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG Trend change up not down
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Natty is a widow maker. The most irrational and most brutal.
    kind of like a blonde. 😉

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    GOLD saves lives. I knew it.
    😉

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG Daily chart When the 8 ema goes above the 55 ema which is turning up with positive CMF. A trend change
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • ridingwaves

    nope but he doesn’t go hunting or outdoors when t-storms are forecast…he lives in Montrose, a town I could see you in on move…..scenic delight

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    $TSX outperforming the DOW ? Hmmm ! Either positive for commodities or negative for the DOW. The other day GG mentioned possible inflation. GG could be right inflation around the corner. $TSX is heavily weighted commodities JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/6097acd82fb18a0d54e65eebd8a8c0b29b41604779c45928f23df1471bb6028d.png

  • ridingwaves

    ummm, inflation is already in the system, look at trucking, rail etc…this tariff thingy reeks of trying to diverge the 10 yr all summer to me…

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    don’t forget $15 hamburger flippers. (SanFran local)

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    The housing bubble in U.S. and Canada …. Yipes !

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    5.15 in Georgia Who can possibly live on that !
    JULIE

  • ridingwaves

    if the fed keeps letting RE appreciate like this, they will need to increase min. wage to $20 an hour so 3 people could live in a 2 bdrm apt…

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    None in the other Southern states. Unbelievable !
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    you supplement with EBT cards. no worries!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    all the swamp meat you can eat. A paradise.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG You mean alligator ? Good Grief !
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hi There ! Welcome to New Orleans …. No minimum wage …. Please fill out this application You can start work immediately.” What the “Hell ”
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    By the way … We get an occasional hurricane thru here but that won’t be till September. You can save for that in the mean time. Welcome Aboard ! How in the “Hell” do people do it Unreal !
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Our son and daughter are doing fine. They both have bought homes. We were able to pay for their college .. Very fortunate. Many of their friends have had to move back with their parents and saddled by student debt. Unable to get off the ground.The new norm
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Newlyweds rowing up in a boat. Honey the bathroom is Well .. Uh ! You know ! Good Grief !
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    To those that live in the Southern States. I am sorry for the remarks. Not funny at all …. The plight that many of your constituents live in is certainly real . My husband just said that at one time the Union Scale for electricians in New Orleans and Baton Rouge was commensurate with the West Coast. Unbelievable what has happened in the Deep South. Time to raise the South with the rest of the U.S. Again sorry for the remarks as our Southern residents are Americans too
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX have not shorted yet . Today a bounce off a support zone closing above it’s 21 ema and a lower trend line.JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/72cd5f7460daca1021f998a25a427561800ab4d8cd774f74fc8db8cb71f9c864.png

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    That place would go for $500k in CA.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    All in good humor, Julie – relax 😉

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I don’t know yet. I have an old flatscreen TV with an HDMI port that I hope is compatible (I don’t watch TV ever). Whether or not all my software is going to work I’m not sure either. I know end of this week 😉

  • Edd

    Southern, born and bred. Didn`t even think that way Julie. No apologies needed at all. You are a real sweetheart to all. Your husband is blessed to have you, and we here are blessed to know you. Regards kindly Ma`am!!

  • BKXtoZERO

    Looks like that move I wanted to 2750. ES went a little lower so maybe a stop run? The usual buy the dip…. 2750 holds and rally continues.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Thank You EDD
    JULIE

  • http://www.captainboom.com/ captainboom

    Brother from another mother! I don’t watch any TV either. Total waste of time.

  • http://www.captainboom.com/ captainboom

    Agreed, Montrose is a gem.

  • http://www.captainboom.com/ captainboom

    Heat lightning is a misnomer, as it’s just lightning that is very far away, such that the sound dissipates before it gets to you. Had to correct my wife on this a few weeks back.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heat_lightning

  • Mark Shinnick

    I’ve been doing the flatscreen thing myself with win7, if ever a problem there its usually with sound. Seems like a good experiment you’ve cooked up 🙂

  • Mark Shinnick

    Absolutely. Cancelled all tv and cable crap, Net only …and happy.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Same here. No TV since 1996 but I do turn it on to see my Philadelphia Eagles.