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Welcome To Hell Week!
51

Welcome To Hell Week!

by The MoleJune 18, 2018

Ladies and leeches, welcome to the worst week for equities, at least statistically speaking based on historical precedence over the past quarter century. No, I am not kidding, the next five sessions have pain written all over them, thus I recommend you treat very cautiously. Of course while hapless retail is expected to suffer (as always) nimble steel rats like us always manage to eke out an edge. Let’s lay out what exactly we’re heading into:

Alright, we’ve reached the mid year point just before the onset of the summer vacation season and probably not so coincidentally that also marks the most bearish week of the year in equities with a whopping negative Sharpe ratio of -0.63. Yikes!

And just to make things a wee bit more interesting the ECB, the BOJ, and yes the Fed have scheduled neck on neck announcements over the next two days. Heck, if that doesn’t get the tape moving then I don’t know what will!

And gravity is already setting in with the E-Mini trading near last week’s spike low of ES 2765. A drop through that is increasingly likely and that puts us on the road toward ES 2750 or lower. I would not even think about a long entry until then.

Now freshly filed in the ‘Mole Saved Your Ass Once Again’ department is this gold/yen correlation chart I posted last Thursday after observing a stark discrepancy between the Yen and gold. Over the past few years both have been tightly correlated and any deviation by gold (a much smaller market) from the Yen (a much larger market) is usually quickly corrected in favor of the latter.

Well, I hope you heeded my warning as shortly after gold started to descend and then accelerated lower on Friday. Of course the raging Dollar isn’t helping matters right now. Nevertheless I’m sort of tempted to grab a small long position here after such a big wipe out but then had a much better idea, posted further below.

Campaign Updates

Crude suddenly did a gold and stopped me out at break/even. That’s neither very polite nor in line with seasonality but apparently crude is also feeling the Dollar pinch a bit lately.

Strangely however natgas is on fire right now and propelled itself to the 2R mark within two session. I’m now advancing my stop to the 1R mark hoping to weather out the obligatory profit taking courtesy of the upper 100-day Bollinger.

The ZB futures are coiling up and I am happy having grabbed an entry here last week. My trail now goes to the -0.6R mark, which admittedly is a bit early but given all those central banksters on camera over the next few days I’ve decided to err on the conservative side.

The USD/JPY campaign has been in the running for a while now and although it’s slowly getting out of the gate I’m yet unable to move my stop beyond break/even. All bad things take time, especially when it comes to the Yen it seems.

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About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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  • ridingwaves

    thought I would be taking bigger hit on WEAT today…
    what is crazy is that soybeans and soybean meal are looking like possible long candidates here….

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    This isn’t Olympic water polo anymore

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u7zdx8T1ATI

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    UNG A pullback to it’s daily 5 ema
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    USO Targets 12.37 and 11.70
    JULIE

  • ridingwaves

    soybean meal closed the gap up from feb. that started that run north and soybeans have retraced to exactly last year price bottom….

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    RW Are you trading the ETF’s ?
    JULIE

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Interesting this bounce back – running on minimal participation though:

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/def0f10f7edd6840251c650acafa25050c06402c7772469e07464b44d5dadc50.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG There was a special program on Navy Seals with the capture of Bin Laden. Very interesting …. African American Seals can only be used on certain missions and they accept that with all dignity afforded them
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Thanks Chief for the post and your hard work
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • CandleStickEmUpper

    Zero’s stuck since 11:40 AM

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG Inserting the 8 ema GVIP as you stated in an earlier post …. Yeah … the bounce today of course … !
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    the little guy doesn’t get much chance.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG CAT 149.02 was a target … that vicinity presently
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36
  • randomuser6789

    TSLA *STILL* beating up the shorts.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    breaking out of range. glad I didn’t fall to temptation.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG Friday may have been a flush out GLD
    JULIE

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    The VPS running the Zero seems down. Looking into it…

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    yeah, looks like today is another flush. not as strong.
    here’s to clogged toilets! and the plumbers who get rich.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Apologies for the outage, it seems like my VPS died. I’ve contacted the hosting company and am awaiting a response. In the interim I’m running it from my local system.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    UNg Down to important support .. Confluence of conversion line (8) at 23.89 and trend lines JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/97c5a0deb42a2f7ae8743e8b7347100127a7ad3b57b7fb5f558caa486f1861c8.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG The building trades are on a rip …. electricians ; plumbers ; carpenters ; cement masons ; bricklayers … etc
    JULIE

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    Thanks for getting it back up from your local

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    that can only mean one thing.

    Invasion
    INFLATION

    https://i.ytimg.com/vi/AVWmUTIeG1E/hqdefault.jpg

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Luckily I was at home, otherwise it wouldn’t have happened so quickly.

  • ridingwaves

    vix and tariffs still not hooking up for a quickie or 4 day fling by the looks of it…
    stopped out MLNT spec play….

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    CSCO Looking for a bearish close today below 43.99 strong support for a re short But no cigar
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Muwahaha. a downgrade. Blam.

    “Semiconductor companies including QUALCOMM Incorporated QCOM and Intel Corporation INTC were taken aback after the U.S. government decided to impose tariffs on computer chips imported from China. The Semiconductor Industry Association raised concerns by saying “while the U.S. semiconductor industry shares the Trump administration’s concerns about China’s forced technology transfer and intellectual property practices, the proposed imposition of tariffs on semiconductors from China, most of which are actually researched, designed, and manufactured in the U.S., is counterproductive.”

  • ridingwaves

    but for the bear case, XLF is having issue with the 200sma acting as resistance so far…

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX Buying the dip could get interesting … SPX must get above it’s 5 ema and upper trend line Hmmm ! JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/1c95262e0564afcdb0f20a30ab43cef353c5f2cb25d52df7003c06b59f6dd9a8.png

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    Zero URL is showing your local desktop now lol

  • ridingwaves

    This graph supports it, flat beds are tied to construction, housing, building etc…
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/9efe625363ed9bd498392db0696aaa90ba7a93a32124ee8b84eec08f248baac2.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    RW I posted previously BAC an expected bounce from support zone and going to watch at possible upper trend line and lower cloud boundary JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/bc6c64780fe770f68881e0acfc65442fda164b08779fbecce21634bcc2fa8616.png

  • Yoda

    Groundhog day on the spoos

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    ADM resumes it’s breakout with a bounce off it’s conversion line (8) and powers higher JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/a64064d867853c5ec28320a3fb44f56e6e075b44b2b85f4f0c5d436eb35a970b.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Really? Fuck…

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    No idea what happened. I kept it running while having dinner.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Can you tell me what happened? I thought it was working fine after I set it up on my local box.

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    It was working fine for some time after you set it to local. Then it seemed to have stopped or minimized, since all I could see was your golden desktop with 5 or 6 icons named NinjaTrader7, Laplace.cs, models, DotNetPyt.., etc..

  • Yoda

    Yeah a real nerdy desktop..

  • ridingwaves

    wtf Julie, there is a winter weather advisory near you….see California has some perks, or at least 1

  • ridingwaves

    I think Trump reads ES and decided to take advantage of that sharpe ratio thingy tonight

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    what’s with the Cheetos hate?
    😉
    Have you tried lunar trading Bro? LOL.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/a55e6e533061f1e1a92010cb5c107bf48053e945361b09c5fe9bd178fa14e9ab.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    I’ll give Julie $50 to pack some of that up and ship it down here!

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    LOL – fortunately it wasn’t my p0rn collection!

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I don’t know what happened but will keep a close eye on it today. Turns out that fucking service provider just folded and disappeared overnight leaving me hanging. I’m struggling to find a replacement which isn’t easy as it’s a custom setup for remote screen scraping.

  • StockTalker

    Nice rounding effect there:)