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The Powell Put
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The Powell Put

by The MoleNovember 29, 2018

I am sitting here with a huge grin on my face attempting to articulate my joy over what happened yesterday. And despite the title of this post it has very little to do with Jerome Powell and the massive put he issued to the U.S. equities market. Once again the financial MSM does not see the forest for all the trees by proclaiming that market participants ‘didn’t see this one coming’. Oh really?

I beg to differ as I have it on good authority that volatility ETPs across the board have been hard to borrow (HTB) for institutional traders for over a week now. Please understand that while this may be a common occurrence for retail rats like us, but it is rarely an issue for big players who generally enjoy supreme liquidity via exclusive institutional FIX based platforms. So I guess it all depends on whether or not you were in the know.

But I digress as that’s not the real story either. What is however relates to the entire financial media cabal once again ‘knowing’ that a new bear market was in the making and that we were steering straight into the next 2008 style wipe out. The snapshot above was taken over at the online edition of the German Welt a few hours before the Fed’s announcement and goes to show how retail continues to be hoodwinked into making horrible trading/investing decisions. Which Germans these days, I hate to admit, on average seem to have a special knack for.

Now it’s quite possible that the market turns on a dime again today. But it wouldn’t matter as anyone holding short positions got taken to the woodshed yesterday. Which once again makes the point I have been trying to beat into your collective brains over the past nine years right here on Evil Speculator: So many of you keep hoping for a bear market but believe me when I tell you that this is the very last thing you want to see happen. But if it does…. well….

Après nous le déluge! 😉

Anyway, if I just described you then repent for your sins by signing up as a member allowing you to enjoy the benefits of an unbiased perspective that may actually aid your trading as opposed to recurrently luring you into death traps.

Alright, let’s get to our campaigns. A breach of 2745 propels us higher but until that happens it’s possible that the big bad bear may try to safe his hind by snarling and clawing its way out like cornered animals are known to do. But a pop > that threshold and it’s most likely back into the cave for the grizzlies until January. After that anything may happen but we’re not there yet.

I got kicked out of the Dollar campaign at break/even. Very annoying and I jumped right back in with a stop < 96.5.

More pleasant story on the USD/CAD – stop out at 1R and I re-entered after it produced a retest of the new hourly spike low. ISL goes to my original entry point, which is conservative but I intend to hold this one for a while.

No new positions otherwise, let’s see what happens today and especially tomorrow. It’s not unusual to get a sideways session or two after a big move, so don’t jump to conclusions if you don’t see continuation higher today. The bearish scenario isn’t dead yet but would almost immediately have to exhibit market weakness to once again gain credibility. I won’t rule that out until ES 2800 has been reconquered.


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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  • Sp00nman

    GG, could you post us an updated chart with the “envelopes” and where we are in the DMZ?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Here you go, it’s a 205 day average = 41 week cycle.
    [SPX]
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p18039270204
    -GG

  • maxcherry

    breaking the down trend line opens the door to retest the recent highs @ 2816

    full moon seems to mark the lows

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/3b438391c2c4a823cdee674a73e1545c5187c4dc73f69686d2c3423fe6a6c1cf.png

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Guten Morgen!

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys the 2747 target posted previously could be it. 2772 was another target
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hi Chief ! Thanks for the post .. Today very important as an important target has been reached. 2735 i.e. closing under is crucial as is 2723
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • ridingwaves

    the Bernanke Put makes Powells market soothing look like child play
    good morning

  • HD

    So you’re dismissing a bear market because of a sharp rally EOM?
    Denial ain’t just a river in Egypt!

  • Sp00nman

    VIX sure has had a big move off of yesterday’s lows. Bears definitely haven’t gone in hibernation yet.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hi SP One big day like yesterday does not make a trend
    JULIE

  • HD

    BTW all the prop desk losers that borrowed UVXY are under water today.

    FED is behind. Just to balance the POV’s.

  • HD

    >2750 would quantify the low for me.

  • ridingwaves

    the little profit taking move looks over now too

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hi HD I have not shorted yet … Must see going into the close. Again 2772 – 2775 are still possible
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    $BKX (Banking Index) and the big dog BAC possible failure at it’s 55 ema. Like I have always stated SPX not going up without the Banks
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    How are you doing, Julie? Did you check out Yellowstone? That’s how I imagine you up there 😉

  • ridingwaves

    XLF is resting above the 100sma comfortably…..daily needs a move to 27.20 and its up up and away

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Please read my post again. What I suggested is that people are being herded into an expectation that ends up hurting them. I thought I made that clear.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    You never hold that overnight HD. Didn’t we go through all that months ago?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG 2735 is a level1 s is 2814 … 2747 is a level 2 Like I said below 2747 could be it and a bearish close below 2735 not good. 2723 is a very important level 2.You can guess what I did over Thanksgiving Weekend
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    2717 is a level 2 GG
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Excuse my ignorance, what are these levels you speak of?
    I’m familiar with pivot points, but I don’t believe you’re talking those.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG There is a formula to compute the algos that my husband knows
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Sp00nman

    VIX/VXV poked its head back over 1. The Bulls are expected to defend the ~2717 area as below that is the big gap without a whole lot of support till under 2700. Nice little pop to 2740 on that Trump news about China that was faded.

  • ridingwaves

    herd is thinning but still congregating
    https://www.aaii.com/o/sentimentsurvey

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    As I type a bounce off the 2723 level 2. A bearish close today below 2723 is a short. It will also be below 2735
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    2723 is also the 60 min 8 ema. It all ties in GG
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    not likely.
    how about a doji go nowhere today.
    and a vacuous drop tomorrow!?

  • ridingwaves

    shorts would be crazy to play large with G20 surprises certainly in store. I bet we see pause in more tariffs on China meme for a bit……other things to worry about now..12-6 Auctions and 12-7 Budget resolution…building a wall is job number one…..

  • HD

    It’s clear. Just think the opportunity has been more balanced all year. Sellers are not hurting this year. Certainly the “herd” as you refer were trying to BTFD the entire 300 points down.

  • Sp00nman

    I personally never play “large” on the short side (call me an idiot if you want) as the upside surprises (like yesterday) are frequent and very painful in bear markets. My goal is not market domination like our chief. :p

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Yes that could happen Just keep in mind a bearish close below 2723 is not good. Also 2723 is the daily Ichi Cloud baseline (21)matching a Level 2….2772 is top of daily cloud matching a level 2 at 2775. As stated 2772 – 2775 are still possible. 2772 is the weekly Ichi Coud baseline (21) It all ties in GG
    JULIE

  • HD

    You think prop desk guys took HTB products for a 2 hour ride and timed that exit perfectly? Idk.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SP One leg at a time with this volatility
    JULIE

  • ridingwaves

    shorting in secular bull markets is about patience and then running with that herd until your target-indicator or whatever that maybe is hit….

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    High Yield
    ok, the credit pump spiked yesterday.
    But.

    The RSI is still sub 50.
    if the median is crossed, you betcha, I’m a certified bull.
    😉

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/19c748d24db9f392f14560faf67548ba4a54d18538b4858d1c3e3e506e73f8c3.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG … AND The Banks !
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    you and the banks….are you sure you weren’t a teller in a previous life?
    https://deadlyclear.files.wordpress.com/2012/12/wonderfulgeorge3.jpg

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG Watch $BKX .. A bearish close below 99.42 AND ..!
    JULIE

  • https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLEx52bnnbLmh2dnV_Vyq1ErXT79LSU6pT xenoson

    2727.50 is the big HVN for the year. Can spend days copping around it like two weeks ago. As long as it acts as a magnet there is no bull or bear market but big balance.

  • HD

    So what was the better trade? Sell IV yesterday or buy IV yesterday? Markets has room for everyone. Jmho.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    And that’s exactly what I’ve been saying, HD. Remember that on Monday I posted a binary entry? I would have taken the short entry as happily as the long entry.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG If are able too .. go to an intraday chart as I type and see if SPX can go above 2735.85 from the bounce at 2723
    JULIE

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    How would I know if they did?

  • Mark Shinnick

    My models are basically selling it, then stand aside while it oscillates around and through support for a while.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    HD One leg at a time with this volatility. Go long then short then go long .. That is what I have been doing with my targets
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    the hourly has one big red and now one white candle.
    if the buying pressure continues, yes 2735 will be crossed to the up.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG 2735.85 is a level 1.. Just keep in mind 2723 as in a reply to you below
    JULIE

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Care to share?

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG SPX may not get above 2735.85 from the bounce 2723 … Too much !
    JULIE

  • Brishort

    ES dancing around VWAP….BBs are compressing.
    Nothing special for the moment except it all looks like corrective retracements on th 5 min everytime it tries to go up.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Would love to…just same old story translating my dbase code into internet based…and this insane family stuff with mom’s police-determined elder abuser daughter sucking up creative time to code.

  • Brishort

    Thanks Julie. Missed you yesterday!

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hi Brishort.. Been very busy at work.. Missed you guys too !
    JULIE

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    somebody bring this man into the 21st Century!

    https://images-na.ssl-images-amazon.com/images/I/51nfEK22SfL.jpg

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I swear, we’re talking medieval tech here.

  • Mark Shinnick

    It was cool at the time, used some graphics compiled-in ..enabled my travel with suitcase laptop using FM-Signal receiver. Nowadays getting updated would eventually save me so much friggin time.

  • HD

    The EOM rally in September went till 10/3, the EOM rally in October went until 11/7, the EOM rally in November will go until 12/?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Dec 17.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    How would you be able to predict that?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Dec 07 is the new moon, so you’re really putting me out on a limb here.
    😉

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    HD Usually 6 trading days for pension and 401K contributions
    JULIE

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    You base your campaigns on this?

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Chief ? ? ?
    JULIE

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Projections of turning points based on EOM rallies.

  • HD

    Predict? Impossible. Find characteristics of this bear market to add a layer of probability- very possible.

    We talk about EOM rallies every month.

  • Brishort
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    No Chief I was just stating that pension and employer 401K contributions are processed in the first 6 trading days of every month. That is a lot of money Chief and can have an effect
    JULIE

  • Sp00nman

    Cliff notes: https://media.giphy.com/media/rFjxBeE4SlNBe/giphy.gif Winter is coming 2020-2055.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    My point is that assumptions are being made. Have any of you guys ever sat down and used past data and then compared it with what happened during those periods? And I am referring to a statistically valid sample size. I for one have not which is why I don’t consider it for my trading. And if I wanted to then I would first have to prove it to myself with strong evidence, e.g. 60% probably plus.

    My point here is that a lot of you guys keep claiming things that appear to be (please prove me wrong) completely arbitrary and should be treated in the same fashion as moon cycles, EWT, tea leafs, voodoo magic, ect. It doesn’t matter if it can have an effect because you think it does, what matters is if it actually DOES and then HOW and WHEN.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Please see my response above to Julie.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I’m not completely convinced yet but their data makes a pretty strong case. Unfortunately she’s got a horrible accent which makes it difficult to absorb the material.

  • maxcherry

    an awful lot of bears out there
    inverted put/call ratio at multiyear low
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/66056f612e714502fc470b1376f7bc714ff33705d1db4ee5d24d36351a534077.png

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I’m going old school:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0QDKLglEP5Y

    I really don’t envy the current generation, popular music and art being only two of many reasons.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Chief .. Sy Harding did a study on pension and 401k contributions and it does have a positive effect at the beginning of every month
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Max Takes Bulls to make a Bull Market too
    JULIE

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Someone actually posted a chart – I’m going to mark my calendar.

  • Sp00nman

    Ya I just quickly skimmed it, have to watch it later. It’s way over my head but nice to hear opposing viewpoints regarding “climate change.”

  • Mark Shinnick

    Nor do I one-bit….ignoring history’s lessons never ends well.

  • ridingwaves

    bad news for bears……especially in a secular bull market……

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Okay, please share that data if you have it handy.

  • maxcherry

    it’s not a bull market,, it’s a correction that will last a while, 2950-2500

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Chief Here is a not so bullish chart of the Banking Index ($BKX) that should be watched. The moving averages are in a bearish alignment with the 55 and 233 down trending and MACD below it’s center line. Now short term overbought JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/0f6fe33bf677762e5f56a8f19b46c190108a9bf34300cddf961742d8b01f3c1d.png

  • ridingwaves

    the correction is over for all intended purposes….

  • ridingwaves

    and still no one here is playing all this volatility in /NG….
    its been very fun and rewarding….

  • HD

    Big call RW. Noted.

  • Mark Shinnick
  • bankwalker

    Does that mean that 54% agree? Who did they ask?

  • maxcherry

    i dont think it is, i think it will be a while before there are multiple closes above 2940.91

  • Sp00nman

    Yep, this is a big reason to be bullish shorter term. I don’t know if we’re in a bull or bear market. I don’t really care to argue about semantics, but I think we will get a move higher shorter term. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c43f9fe67f49d7cf7670cd5ba3152003b992e8aac858c13b3f9d3ea84c54cde8.png

  • maxcherry

    the banks and financials didn’t make a new low in Nov while the spx did

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    The “Hedgies” GVIP Pulling back confluence of 233 and 55 ema’s Overbought … Gonna be interesting here guys…. Hedgies sell here not going to good ! JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c1022d7fa166e80cfd630740d1f333c7fd3d40c33c5f4623127c4b4ec991e335.png

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    “I don’t know if we’re in a bull or bear market. I don’t really care to argue about semantics”

    Ditto.

  • HD

    2 things.

    1-I’m a little surprised you’ve never noticed EOM rallies? No real need to assign statical values to them.
    2- Julie just nailed the whole shebang and you still insult her strategies rather than find some value in that?

  • HD

    It’s a little salty today so I’m gonna call it a day early. Have a great weekend all.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    IMO my 2747 SPX target going to be very tough… above then 2772 – 2775
    JULIE

  • bankwalker

    long /ES @ 2741.50

  • maxcherry

    yea , i just want to know where it’s going the next couple of weeks and i think, up.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Chief I am just trading one leg at a time and have done very well . Bull – Bear ? ? Make money either way
    JULIE

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I didn’t insult anyone, HD. Read my comments and find the insult.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Yup, no argument there.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I mostly care about the next week plus minus.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Enjoy.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Okay, so based on that I could do nothing but get long ahead of EOM rallies and consistently make a profit over the long term. I frankly don’t trade that way but if you guys are doing this consistently then I want to hear all about it.

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho
  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Zero snapshot:

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/dcbe11e6c07061e6f57dd1a312bfc29f0008175b6306de9b9cee4e2f93a83d1e.png

    Sideways as anticipated. Not unusual after a strong advance and we’ll have to gauge follow up tomorrow. If there isn’t any by Monday/Tuesday EOS then it would suggest this was merely a correction within a larger sell off.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Deutsche Bank being back under the microscope isn’t helping. Not sure if you heard…

    https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/29/business/deutsche-bank-money-laundering-raid.html

  • Jason13

    Two things I mentioned last week that would fuel the bulls: a surprise Fed announcement (yesterday although I thought it would happen in December) and this,
    https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/29/us-and-china-exploring-suspension-of-further-tariffs-through-spring-in-exchange-for-new-talks-wsj.html

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • Sp00nman

    If there’s anything I’ve come to realize in trading it’s that everyone is looking for correlation in everything/anything whether it exists or not. The other thing with forums like these is people are obviously not showing us their full hand (or reasons why they’re bullish/bearish). We focus on results first and foremost, for better or worse, and that adds credibility to theories vs hard data.

    Semi related.. I loved this article about Annie Duke, I think it’s very applicable to trading: http://nautil.us/issue/55/trust/the-resulting-fallacy-is-ruining-your-decisions

    I’m kinda rambling.. I gotta get back to work.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys Like I have stated my 2747 going to be tough … Above 2747 then 2772 – 2775 Overbought and refer to GVIP “Hedgies” chart below. Julie getting ready to re short https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/a2d0950a520f739172c07141d1410874e0c896661051754d73dd8f06a8b4f298.png

  • ridingwaves

    they bounced off the weekly 100sma….
    the whole down move took SPX overbought to oversold, the DOW seems to have retested the top channel breakout from the 2009 channel from 9-2017

  • http://www.linkedin.com/in/sharondsessions/ Sharon

    Wow. that is huge. thanks

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Chief There was a snippet yesterday about it too
    JULIE

  • ridingwaves

    retest of monthly channel breakout on Dow…..overbought went to oversold…..
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/bddf997c786f41ab6e348a21e11e2de17dfe660447a936a67c07a6b5e1febad3.png

  • ridingwaves

    so far my big calls have been spectacular winners….which in this game could mean my next one fails…

  • Brishort

    Time check, 2PM Fed minutes. I don’t care about anything they have to say, but seeing the bullshit sideways since the open, , we need a catalyst for direction.

    The days starts at 2PM therefore it seems….

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    RW Daily MACD must get above it’s center line
    JULIE

  • ridingwaves

    monthly chart with no lines….just a clear channel breakout that is now retested…..

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys SPX going back 1 year you can see that pullbacks have occurred 2% above it’s 21 ema. Now again one of my targets above 2747 is 2772 – 2775 . At 2772 – 2775 the 2% level will have been attained.2772 – 2775 also https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/134b4cd7bbd9bdfa9bc8bd03fdb5a3497afaf289e161e179bbfe3cc2f097c890.png matches technical lines in SPX chart below. But first must have a bullish close above target 2747 which is going to be tough. JULIE

  • http://www.captainboom.com/ captainboom

    geez, spaghetti for dinner tonight? Can’t even see price, lol

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hi Captain Boom Thumbnail and click on chart for better clarity LOL!
    JULIE

  • http://www.captainboom.com/ captainboom

    Exactly. Sample size? Random sample? Americans?

  • Brishort

    Good plan, good charts.

    Ready to pounce as well. Sitting on my hands and trying to keep them there right now!

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Brishort .. Charts do not lie .. Wall Street and CNBC do ! Plan the trade and trade the plan If wrong then not wrong long LOL!
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I did not.
    at some point, the dead fish in the trash can, must be taken out.
    😉

  • Brishort

    CNBC, what is that, a new candy store? 😉

  • ridingwaves

    Fed minutes point to December rate hike as central bank wants to remove forward guidance
    2:00p
    Fed officials saw greater uncertainty about outlook, with risks of slower growth, higher inflation
    2:00p
    Fed officials stress they have a ‘flexible approach’ to rate increases in 2019: minutes
    2:00p
    Fed officials want to remove ‘further gradual increases’ in interest rates from statement: minutes

    inflation…..usually good for the market but really needed for the home price market….as it begins long slow decline….

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    back from lunch,

    Mercury Retrograde
    https://www.astrologyhoroscopereadings.com/2018-mercury-retrograde-nov-copyright-roman-oleh-yaworsky.gif

    “Instead we are reacting from our needs, our hurts, from our buttons being pushed, or the way that we take care of others and not ourselves. In that way we act from our shadow, and that is what mercury retrograde is all about.”

  • ridingwaves

    can’t negate bullshit calls? my first take….who watches that thing

  • TimeToPanic

    I read a piece, think it was Jay Kaeppel wrote it, but can’t find it right now, he plotted the market returns if you only bought (from memory) the last week of the month and held for (something like) 15 days, then sold, and repeated. Over a long time, 30 years or so I recall, the returns were stupid, 4x buy/hold I think. he didn’t speculate why, but must be money flow I guess.

  • Brishort

    Zero muted, VIX muted. Likely levitation to continue if no participation either way.
    Julie’s plan below still the best trading plan for the short term. It would include a brief fake breakout above yesterday’s high, and getting close to GG’s envelopes/arc..

  • TimeToPanic

    2765, a fib plus 50 & 200 day SMAs, plus the downtrend line of the highs.
    A brief pop above maybe, maybe not, but that’s where I’ll load up, if we get that far.

  • TimeToPanic

    I remember the Greenspan Put, the Bernanke Put, and now we have the Powell Put.
    I reckon Powell’s will be as effective at averting nature’s laws as demonstrated by market cleansing of bubbles as the other dopes before him. These guys are the naked Emperors, they have nothing, no power, no knowledge, literally nothing.

  • ridingwaves

    TTP, they have the ability and backing to keep the bubble going for a lot longer…..your discounting their knowledge shows how far off you are on your investment thesis……Like Britain on steroids, the US has plenty of time left to keep on keeping on……you and I will be dead before your bust…..

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    60 min chart … 60 min MACD at a level where previous pullbacks have occurred. Also negative divergences 30 min chart
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    disqus issues..

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    What’s going on? I was having dinner and then lied down a little.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX RSI (3) above 84 … Bulls beware !
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Very small short position at close (probe) .. Tight stop
    JULIE

  • maxcherry
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Max Have you considered a bearish 1 – 2 i – ii from the September peak ?
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    totally shut out. looks like it’s back.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Yup, disqus is having issues today…

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Natty Gas.
    if you get a really good envelope, you’ll know it. and trust it.
    I commented many days ago about how the ceiling can become the floor.

    24 months? NOT BAD.
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/ce68c2a36704517da9b8b76d97a961b42bd9b099890bf2ee83b85a29126bfe0c.png
    -GG

  • maxcherry

    no, i see jan as a 3rd wave high everything else is abc’s
    i posted this last jan on the blog not to be named the high was of by 12 pts or so

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/7774ea9a2e5309f102be16aaff12d64b08a5ede71b6d61423229ebcf0542a470.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX The sell off in the last hour …. Could be a problem … I have a very small short probe at close. FYI Negative divergences MACD and RSI 60 and 30 min charts with a 60 min MACD rollover and 60 min RSI (30) below it’s front weighted 6 moving average. Today’s high was exactly at an upper down trend line hence the sell off Now overbought short term daily chart and 60 min chart. Tomorrow (Friday) may be a surprise for the bulls.
    PS Has anyone looked at SPY volume today ? You better !
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys .. Back to work Everyone Have A Great Rest Of Day
    JULIE

  • maxcherry

    here’s the on balance vol going back 20 days

    i set it to a 1 minute chart, it’s the only way the capture the volume on close.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/6d7fcf4f09e47b61bd7776e0dc5c2bd19c4a37d94077eeb82a2cc72cb9626ac4.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    what a lousy day. online & work.
    (sigh)

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Max I see the rally the last 4 days as a dead cat bounce up into the declining 55 ema. A bearish close below 2723 (today’s low) will confirm. MAX thanks for your charts and comments. Always appreciated ! 2772 – 2775 is still a target
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • maxcherry

    i think it gets as high as 2815, the last two peaks, maybe even a little higher, last rally was 214 pts an equal rally hits 2843 then back down to test the recent lows

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    One last item Guys SPY closed below 60 min VWAP (according to my software)
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Max 2843 is possible … I am trading one leg at a time…. IMO will decline now somewhat that is why the short probe at close
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • TimeToPanic

    Heh, I guess you missed 2000-03 and 2007-09 then? Where were the wizards then, what were they doing behind the curtain? F*** all, just shitting themselves. You should read some of Jeff Snyder’s back issues at Alhambra, the Fed literally reveal they are/were totally ignorant of the workings of the eurodollar markets, it’s in the minutes of their meetings. It’s cool that you have faith in their economics Phds though.

    The bust starts now, and the final point is 2032, it comes along every 50 years, like clockwork. Driven, shall we say, by a Higher Power.

  • ridingwaves

    I was reading him long ago, he is a great writer and smarter than shit….I actually timed selling my house perfectly in 2006 because I was aware of how bad the paper was, I saw it first hand….I was buying paper for New Century financial in 99 so I think I’m much closer to what has transpired than you believe. Faith is a skittish word, maybe you should rephrase it….

    you sound like most metal bugs…..the issue is if by the same standards Britain should be a third world shit hole with ongoing strife, famine and death…..haven’t seen that yet….the US will fall after that country not before it….we just follow their model and tweak it….they were the original financial center….

    btw, I was protesting TARP in the streets in front of the SF fed building while the rest of America and the world was thinking of what pink ponies they were going to hitch too next……

  • TimeToPanic

    Metal bug, lol, stop it now, you sound butthurt. I have zero copper, zero tin, zero silver, zero platinum…..I could go on.

    Most of your argument is with thin air, not with me, so I’ll leave you to it.

  • ridingwaves

    Go panic its your time, or hang out at zeroedge or something….you already stated you loaded the boat on Gold….enjoy your world bust that never comes or did you miss 2009….must have forgot why Bernanke was in there in the first place

    keep dreaming of destruction and 7 black horsemen…it will really go over well with the kids and ladies….

  • TimeToPanic

    I’m touched that you care about me so much to give me your unsolicited advice, thanks dude.

  • Darkthirty

    The alternate would be your 2 as ii of 3. leaving the pattern complete. 1 and 5 are nearly the same length at that point also. IF we are in 4 and b of C completing now with a 618 retrace, 2528 is the c of C target

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Back at a multi-year trend line.

    Plug me back into The Matrix.

    Ignorance is Bliss. -Cypher
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/cc5721d7d26fd6d60d4b12ce98616618635288c1557ffe83c61bb6ce31d87151.png

  • mSquare

    MSFT – Tentative small short (via Dec PUTs). Stop > $112 (it tried to break to $113 thrice and failed)

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=MSFT&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p5762586742c

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36
  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Okay, then let’s run some stats on this. Shouldn’t be too hard as long as rules can be defined. Start on the SPX and if it shows value then pull out high performers or laggards and see if this offers an extra edge.