Trade War Fears
The MSM hasn’t exactly been short of clickbait lately as one supposed global crisis is chasing the next. But suddenly a purported ‘trade war’ between the United States and China is all rage now, and I mean that in the literal sense since everyone seems to be getting their panties in a twist about an issue that in my not so humble opinion has been on the forefront of Chinese/U.S. relations for many years now.
At the same time the loss of about 50,000 factories and the impact on U.S. employment since NAFTA took effect on 1/1/1994 apparently has never been worth much media attention. And sure, of course there are various arguments challenging that perspective. And not being an economist by trade nor ambition my simple response would be: Just take a trip to Baltimore or Detroit and talk to anyone you meet in the streets. Then come back and let’s go over your gripes with the fact that U.S. workers have been squeezed hard over the past few decades.
Whether or not import tariffs on steel and various other products will be a net negative for the U.S. economy and labor remains to be seen. But what clearly does not work is business as usual as has been practiced without care or regard for workers and their families over the past quarter century.
Anyway, be this as it may – all that clickbait cost me a perfectly well running E-Mini campaign. I got out at about 2R in profits which is fine but a long shot from where it was yesterday afternoon.
If I wasn’t leaving tomorrow I would be tempted to grab a long position here but looking at the mess of the past few weeks on the short term panel makes me appreciate the fact that we’re banking profits in equities in the first place. And I’m not going to push my luck ahead of my little trip.
Plus the Dollar keeps dropping (and by extension the EUR is rising). Suffice to say I am not amused. Look at that hourly panel and share your thoughts if you would. All I’m seeing is a market turning on a dime on various fronts. Could lead to quite a bit of ugliness if buyers don’t start taking shit seriously instead of chasing every single headline. I know, I know – who am I kidding?
Tired Of Winning?
Seems to me that market participants are tired of winning, but not in a Trumpian fashion. Maybe after a ten year bull market investors are subconsciously longing for a big market correction wiping out a big chunk of their assets in the process. A growing cultural malaise that now seems to be seeping into our financial markets as well.
I say bring it on! Bring on the pain! Honestly I’ve grown sick of all the snow-flaking and imaginary threats lurking behind every corner. Some cultural crisis or scandal chasing the next all across the Western hemisphere. A mindset apparently prevalent among a generation that has had the luxury of never experiencing war or true hardship (yes I know there are exceptions). No sweetheart – losing WiFi access or a shortage of soy milk at your favorite Starbucks does not constitute a personal tragedy. Again my previous advice applies, take a road trip to B-more or Detroit and we talk.
So hey, what’s with all the bitching? First up a bit of venting here and there is healthy. But I’m trying to make a point and for once it’s more anthropological than down to business and technical. Although I pride myself as being a no-nonsense kind of guy there are times when you have to heed those intangibles, the nagging voices in the back of your head (your mileage may vary based on your lithium dosage).
Look, we obviously don’t live in the 1990s anymore. Things have changed quite a bit, and perhaps I’m a bit jaded but to me it feels like as if the whee are coming off. I actually think what we all desperately need actually is a large market correction, a big cleansing of sorts. There would be a lot of pain in the short term but I think we all would be better off over the long term. Let’s just get it over with and then look forward perhaps with a bit of hope and optimism in our hearts. Too much to ask? Probably.
Alright let me climb off my soap box. My crude campaign was also rudely interrupted at about 0.6R in profits. Grrrr… Okay, a win is a win – we executed perfectly and perhaps we trailed a bit too early. Here as well a re-entry would be on my radar but as I’m traveling tomorrow I don’t want to worry about open positions.
Now gold for one is behaving well and I just moved my stop to break/even. I really like that formation and I got big plans for precious metals going forward. Especially if equity traders continue to screw around as discussed above.
What do ya know? The ZB campaign just got another lease on life and has reversed upwards breaching my entry range. That’s very positive but it’s time it’s getting out of the gate.
Alright, this will be my last post for this week and per the above it looks like I clearly need a vacation! Scott has promised to post here tomorrow and as often as he can over the next 10 days or so. No worries – I’ll be popping by as well but don’t expect extended contributions as I’m working off a lappy and being spoiled by 30 glorious inches of screen estate over the years my perspectives will be more narrow.
And yes, once again all services will run as usual, no worries. If you run into any trouble/issues then just email me at admin@. See you once I’m settled near my ocean hide out.