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Where The Rubber Meets The Road
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Where The Rubber Meets The Road

by The MoleJanuary 9, 2019

This was supposed to be a routine update on the current advance in equities but one chart quickly changed my perspective. Plus Gartman suddenly went bullish, which triggered alarm signals all over the place down here at the evil lair. Okay, I’m kidding about Gartman but I’m serious about seeing trouble on the horizon for the bulls:

What I’m referring to is the volume profile chart which shows us some rather strange volume patterns, in particular yesterday when we ended the day higher but with sell volume apparently far outrunning buy volume.

This is indicative of potential distribution and if you look at the daily panel below then it’s clear that we are once again due to at least a small correction, perhaps even more.

As you can see we are about 80% through the 100 handle volume hole I talked about on Monday, which terminates around 2625.

Which is almost exactly where we’re currently seeing the 100-week SMA pushing sideways, plus the 25-month SMA is also just a few handles away. Well, if that ain’t a coincidence?

I was originally just going to trail at about -1R MFE but have decided to lock in a few more gains at around 1.25R. Not a big win but given what I’m seeing in realized volatility I have decided to err on the conservative side.

Also IF I get stopped out today then I’m pretty confident I will be able to find another entry opportunity once I see a promising floor pattern on my hourly chart.

Bottom Line

So far the possibility of a mere dead cat bounce remains the highest probability scenario and based on my lens a breach of ES 2025 is where the rubber truly meets the road. Which implies that this may be a great STFR opportunity should we experience further degradation of the current rally.

I am not in the habit of jumping in and out of whipsaws willy nilly as that can become hazardous to one’s account principal, but if I see more bearish evidence and the Zero starts signaling lower I would be tempted to consider short positions.

For now I’m holding long with my trail a bagelthrow away.

No luck with gold as anticipated yesterday morning. Stop out at ISL and the way it’s heading there may be more downside on the way. I would consider another long entry should it manage to retrace all the way down to GC 1265.

 


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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  • Jason13

    +1 Mole. BTW, ZB looking like a nice juicy bull flag on the hourly.

  • TimeToPanic

    Is 2025 a typo there Mole? Also, good afternoon.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • CandleStickEmUpper

    Is this a typo too? “in particular yesterday when we ended the day higher but with sell volume apparently far outrunning sell volume.”

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    no, there’s two sell volumes.
    The retail’s sucker one, and then the Dark Pool one.
    πŸ˜‰

  • TimeToPanic

    Thought you were up early, what time was it when you posted this?
    I didn’t get to bed til 2am, watching them try and fail to ramp the futs. I think the day is nigh…..kaboom.

    Also, thanks.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    No I meant buy volume far outrunning buy volume.

    I corrected it πŸ˜‰

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Jeezes – another?

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Sorry for the two typos – I need an editor!!

  • Sp00nman

    Sir Mole, I looked at a chart of DVOL and don’t see it being higher than UVOL yesterday..? Not sure if you are calculating it or referring to the NYSE down volume. Thx.

  • zzezzezz

    Thank you sir!

  • TimeToPanic

    Prediction: this rally will end with a gap up just like 7th November and 3rd December.

    Then a brutal collapse. Thursday maybe? ES c. 2620-2630 target.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Chief $NYUPV:$NYDNV 10 sma is greater than 1.6 actual 6.6 yesterday I had $NYUPV:$NYDNV at 2.6 i.e. up volume 2.6 to 1 over down volume 10 sma below 1.6 is bearish
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hi TTP I have a very very small short probe SPX from yesterday near the close. Not worried at all will retain if SPX higher today. SPX has been hitting my levels on the nose
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    6am Pacific, or 8am Eastern

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    ..perhaps a cat.
    {smirk}

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    whoa, up so early sunshine? not like you.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hi GG I am up this early every morning … Difficult for me to be on blog a.m with market opening at 7:30 a.m here and being at work at 8:00 a.m. Must get some work done when arrive at work
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    me too. But some of us make sacrifices
    πŸ˜‰

  • Sp00nman

    Another thing to keep an eye on is oil. If it keeps moving to the upside it will give more support to equities.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SP Important too is watching the banks ($BKX) esp. BAC the Big Dog
    JULIE

  • TimeToPanic

    7am in the middle?

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    BAC Very strong resistance dead ahead at it’s 55 ema … So far today a gap and crap on the open
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Central? like Kansas Missouri. Yes.

  • Jason13

    I feel like Luke Skywalker prepping his shot for the Death Star….hold, hold….patience grasshopper, patience

  • zzezzezz

    VIX hanging out below its 50 DMA a bit too long for my comfort….

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Patience is what we have Jason. I have the constitution of a “Billy Goat” LOL!
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    You go guys! I’ll hold Leia’s hand.

    https://i.ytimg.com/vi/GcglvURCn8o/maxresdefault.jpg

  • zzezzezz
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I think you need 3 data points on the bottom (channel), to make it legit.
    just saying.

  • zzezzezz
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Much better good job
    JULIE

  • zzezzezz

    Thanks. Learning (slowly)

  • Jason13

    LOL…the fast moving 5 min candle…the carrot for the burros, the lollipop for the suckers…..

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Vic Sperando has a book on proper drawing of trend lines.You can probably google him and find info that he has on trend lines Excellent
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Clever.
    anything about churros & cotton candy regarding the 1 minute?
    I’m gonna barf.
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/30bb1fbba4b2982721554e969b61c2989b97908bf19e7fc865b7637bb3b44c9e.png

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    EURO – breaking out – confirmation could see target of 1.18-1.20

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/58664936efa4c068528c97991a778bfedcde85c1aeb5132445f23ac64322b033.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX filling the gap this a.m will intersect a minor lower uptrend line
    JULIE

  • zzezzezz

    Gold spiking up… 1300+ puts the nail in the coffin for equities?

  • zzezzezz

    Thanks!

  • Darkthirty
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    that’s more of a currency related question.

    But I can show you that the gold/dollar ratio is on the move.
    Muwahahaha.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD%3AUUP&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p8044154865c

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX What a squeeze job .. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/b50b829c63733ba315039ebb8079a6dadea3d511b51be61653ef3bac3e76c6c3.png 5 ema now meeting the 21 ema .. The short IMO a bearish close below their confluence JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • TimeToPanic

    Oil just fell out of bed.

  • Sp00nman

    Oil inventories at 1030EST gave the bears a good nudge with inventories rising.

  • TimeToPanic

    Excellent news, saw that.

  • zzezzezz

    LOL

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX This gap and crap .. Now in the black on short probe from yesterday near close .. Love it
    JULIE

  • Jason13

    Not enough selling yet…

  • TimeToPanic
  • Jason13

    This is a fake-break in my opinion.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Jason 5 min chart an impulse down may print from today’s high I posted a level yesterday at 2590.62
    JULIE

  • Jason13

    I don’t like your level;)…lol

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    The impulse down not valid now LOL!
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    this is BS. I’m wasting my time.
    πŸ˜‰

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    No GG SPX about to fail Look for a bearish close below the 60 min 8 ema Today’s high 1 point below 2590 level.
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Deep down, I know you’re right.

    and hey, look at SH, nice fit.
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SH&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p1763525635c

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    …but HYG is refusing to cooperate.
    someone has the VISA card out.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=HYG&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p26165655637

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho
  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    FUCK!

  • TimeToPanic

    It climbed back into bed. Looking frothy.

  • Ted

    Please explain?

  • BKXtoZERO

    L TVIX 54.5, VIX at 20 may be support

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Sp00nman

    Ya.. high yield debt has been on a fucking tear..

  • mSquare

    Is this stocks having THE ‘little glitch’?

  • Ted

    Never mind I understand now.

  • BKXtoZERO

    That has been killing me top from mid December on until yesterday…. that having to work when you get to work thing… Arg!

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Yes the exchange rate here. But see this is why I don’t trade fundamentally – it doesn’t make sense. The EU is about to blow up with fires everywhere and the economy in slow crash mode while the U.S. is not great but in much much better shape. But for some reason they keep bidding up the fucking Euro. As I said: doesn’t make sense but fortunately it’s a lesson I learned a long time ago.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Hey did anyone notice the new widget on the right? I still have to add like a dozen cognitive biases πŸ™‚

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys if SPX stays within it’s range today that will produce what is called an NR4 and NR7 which means the smallest candle in the last 4 and 7 days. This often means a more volatile and larger move is coming. Also RSI(3) is approx 82 and 84 often means a pullback is very close
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    no. that scary baby man, has trained me to ‘look away’.

  • StockTalker

    There she blows

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    EDIT RSI(3) not 4
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    yes, but so much doom.
    Turn date of the Monday 14th.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    naked shorts. just like that natural gas guy that blew up (metaphorically)
    Asymetric trades.
    Trillions of dollar leveraged the other way. sh!t happens.

  • 1coin3lives

    For Christmas I meant to ask you for a little bit of commentary when you post these. Those of us who are interested in Zero but don’t fully grasp it (I’m not mentioning any names) would love to learn…

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Not yet going to need a confirmed close above today’s earlier high @ 2589.03 on the 10 min chart
    JULIE

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Yup.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    It’s gone for good, no worries.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    GUYS – CHECK OUT THE NEW COGNITIVE BIAS WIDGET ON THE TOP RIGHT. I’M GOING TO ADD A BUNCH MORE THIS WEEKEND.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG is right Chief That scary baby has got to go … Thanks Chief !
    JULIE

  • Darkthirty

    Wait for the announcement flatline-spike up stop sweep …… then STB

  • werewolf

    Not sure what you are pointing out here Mole to be honest?

  • werewolf

    what does that do?

  • Jason13

    NO SELLING! SO STOP TRYING TO SHORT THIS BEAST! WAIT!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    “Your judgments are influenced by what springs most easily to mind”.

    Sex…he he.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    What’s a little cash accumulation between friends?
    πŸ˜‰

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Given the drop & stop in Oct, and the LKGB in December. (circles)

    this is the best I can do.
    80 day cycle.
    -GG
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/74b1bd51df6fade4ba75044fcd122a3d7c92cd4d150cdaf01d234d1e35bbf6c8.png

  • Sp00nman

    I see a rising wedge on the NQ of the entirety of today’s price action. Let’s see if it plays out, they are not very reliable patterns. We should have put in the high for the day.. Also not really putting in strong new TICKs w/ new highs.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    UNG Holding price and trend line support. An ascending triangle Needs a close above it’s 5 ema and upper tren line of triangle. I have a small long probe and will add with a triangle breakout to the upside. MACD has crossed above it’s signal line JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/910939b10cbf88b51f446e5717e881a68ad505d0eae7f182d5bd73f6bc699153.png

  • HD

    Round numbers on deck. FWIW

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX What signaled the bounce today off the lower minor uptrend line was the correction from 2589.03 down to 2568.89 was corrective i.e. 3 waves down. Then the confirmed close above 2589.03 on the 10 min chart alluded to in a post below
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    well, my entries “hold nose” rock. (see pic)
    it’s that holding on, need to work on that. less target, more trail.
    πŸ˜‰

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/cfd51e415125f79b7316346523b54ab639cd3b7f8a13da5d5499d82184ee170e.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG I have a very small short probe from yesterday at the close. I am not running for cover. This rally IMO about concluded
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Off to lunch!

  • StockTalker

    FMOC coming up shortly

  • Ted

    Bollinger Band contraction on the 5 min. chart. Getting ready to bust a move. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/f602fec0230ada8df4f4393c0ab96848721c004c97f05b6f67dd51cf4c16b4f3.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX Breaking below the confluence of the 5 and 21 ema’s and the lower trend line Julie going to bash the bull so hard he will never get up JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36
  • StockTalker

    2600 level

  • Ted

    Powell speaks tomorrow as well.

  • Ted

    What time frame?

  • evilasevildoes

    2604

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    ST I have a very important level @ 2609 Levels above 2590.62 are 2597.69 then 2609.11
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hi Ted Playing it on my levels with a bearish close below the 60 min 8 ema at the mentioned levels Additional levels listed below in reply to ST.. There has not been a bearish close below the 60 min 8 ema at the 2590.62 level. If there is today I will add to my short probe. This still could happen today
    JULIE

  • Ronebadger

    60min positive…but diverging

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Yesterday also my level was 2579.19 and not a bearish close 60 min 8 ema However I did open a small short probe at the lower trend line break yesterday near the close. Previous day same thing my levels were 2560 and 2566 and again no bearish close below the 60 min 8 ema . It will happen at one of my levels
    JULIE

  • Mark Shinnick

    Anything added to make this consciousness-defining point is pure gold truth.

  • Ted

    Roughly below 2582 today is your trigger.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Yes Ted … I think you see my strategy .. My 2566 was a high on Monday Yesterday my 2579 level was the high. My levels have been very close
    JULIE

  • Ted

    Music for the impending dive!
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WflkuBweSYo

  • HD

    I did mention the SQN for that set up a few days ago. Way over 3.0

  • evilasevildoes

    Feb calls on UVXY paid 2.50 for 80 strike

  • StockTalker

    Squeeze is on, see how far she goes. Would like to see a customary blow off to take place before it shits itself. Yee haa!

  • Jason13

    Big buying. Big squeeze right now

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Ted

    Distribution IMHO – aud/jpy dropping

  • Sp00nman
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Julie’s probe…is melting.
    LOL

    http://i.imgur.com/r0clBS7.jpg

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    wait a gawd durn minute..

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    may be some traction HERE.

  • Brishort

    Zero turning negative and ES price below VWAP. Could this be all she had?

  • HD

    That didn’t take long
    πŸ™‚

  • Brishort

    Vix making long 3 minutes candles up, all less than 5 minutes indicators just turned to sell on last move.
    http://schrts.co/zzR3i1

  • TimeToPanic

    Lesbian KGB?

    Nice chart GG.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG Oh no it’s not .. Now below 2590.62 level and about to go below the 60 min 8 ema .. Julie about to add to short probe ! A lower trend line break too GG
    JULIE

  • Brishort

    ES 2597 is the new cryptonite for the moment. Using that high as a stop.
    This is more art than anything else. May take a few attempts to get it right.

    VWAP love on-going again.
    A-B-C on ES hourly easily visible, along with high rate of ascent and shallower range on any new high in line with expected C looking for a top.

  • Wave_surfer

    Good timing. πŸ™‚
    Next question is whether it is a small 1 hour dip or if it is the start of something larger.

  • Brishort

    Now going to the dungeon for punishment due to my willful sin of ABC discussion herein!! ;p

  • Ted
  • StockTalker

    If /NQ 6600 fails here it will fall apart at the seems.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Brishort Below I posted a target above 2590.62 at 2597.69 then 2609.11
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    He he he he

  • Brishort

    Humm, good points.
    Sorry intermittent reading these days. Thanks for the recap!

  • Ted
  • HD

    We now have a defined January TL that should keep you objective. My bet is still retest the lows.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG — This rally is about to be a “Piece of Poop” If it goes today below the 60 min 8 ema approx 2581.75 AND my level 2579.19 Julie will be smiling . NOW below the 2590.62 level and a lower uptrend line
    JULIE

  • Wave_surfer

    Or is the 15 minute dip that brings refreshment over already?

  • HD

    Mole. This is the 4th time but I’ll ask again. Is the P&F chart still saying 1851?

  • Wave_surfer

    Regarding the longer term, I noticed that $SPX (weekly) Perfectly touched the 200 SMA. Very often that is enough to end a correction of a size that comes every 2 to 5 years!
    The question is whether this correction forms a double bottom.
    As this continues to cross the volume desert, I think the chances of a double bottom shrink.

  • Ronebadger
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    The volume desert is least resistance and SPX not showing me much with a rising wedge and decreasing volume SPY in the desert The volume above the desert is resistance with people going to sell to break even
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    look AGAIN 2589.96

    I’m losing faith in YOuuuuuz.
    πŸ˜‰

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    where the Hell were you this morning? We had channel drawing class.
    crayons and everything.
    πŸ˜‰

  • evilasevildoes
  • evilasevildoes

    this is dynamic so tiwiw

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Last kiss great Brexit.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    5 words evil? come on, go for six!!

  • Mark Shinnick

    Trend Lines always impressed me as being a generally-valid art for P&F. Just one of the data items to put into the probability mix.

  • evilasevildoes
  • evilasevildoes

    smoke signal

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    you are right. Naaaaah.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Stockcharts PnF says double top break out Jan 7 but gives no objective target. Smelling B

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yeah…I always wonder who is getting in on that action.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPY Checkout the decreasing volume with a rising wedge. SPY in some trouble. Do not run scared Bears JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/dd802d112465221e18c94fb0b450d0aca0bb3e5c21faa8f8073dfe44d8aaebf3.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    +1 for the Volume.
    my MOnday 14th call is looking better.
    Total V Move with price.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    dare I say smart money is selling on this move up, and accumulating short positions??

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    how’s the weekly picture?..

  • Ted

    I have IWM breaking out of the down channel. Pounding the table having left money on the table. Looks like a market that does not give a shit about technicals.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36
  • HD

    I have theories. We all know how controversial that is here. That chart bottom ticked. Interpret as you see fit.

  • HD

    And he complains about EW? 500 point upgrade eh?

  • Wave_surfer

    I am reminding you of my intuition (mixed with reasons) of an intermediate top tomorrow at around noon Eastern. πŸ™‚

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I hear you.
    The best I can do is extend your loan thru tomorrow.
    πŸ˜‰

  • Wave_surfer

    I am not connected to news. Does anyone know if there is some scheduled Trump or Fed news in the next day or two? When is the next Trade War update going to become public? Does anyone here know?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • evilasevildoes

    news done now just Bexit Wall oh yeah hTrump already building it He’s just using media to go after Dims

  • evilasevildoes

    He’s using army corps engineers Red Castle

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    EV I saw that on the news
    JULIE

  • evilasevildoes
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    what? vs White Castle?

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG LOL!
    JULIE

  • evilasevildoes

    Mrd Beszos went long JNK

  • Wave_surfer

    non-hesitating vote for Risk On

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    excellent. Mole talked about it, Coug is screaming about it, I can feel it.
    interesting times.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    the nerd?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    wouldn’t that be a hoot if HYG leads always, and SPX is just a dumb follower?
    no matter what.

  • Wave_surfer

    It become official today that the Bezos are divorcing.
    Mrs ex-Bezos may have some cash now to invest. hehe

  • HD

    Now some evidence of a terminal patter this week $SPX. Measures 2525

  • Jason13

    Got 2 short positions now….want 4…is there more up to go?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    If floats, flys, or flirts….

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    INsolence! the Market will humble you.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Time Check

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I’m a Professional. well, some day.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pm3rDbXbZRI

  • Ted

    Powell speaks somewhere tomorrow. Perhaps he puts a foot in his mouth. I think he really wants to continue raising rates. Last time he read from carefully scripted speech. Maybe not tomorrow.

  • Jason13

    KILL IT, JULIE. KILL IT. KILL THE BULL, JULIE. LOL

  • evilasevildoes

    typette

  • Ted

    GG – you owe Julie an apology for posting that Sting song before you sign off.

  • Sp00nman

    I don’t know.. from what the Fed has said since the rate hike, they have been bending over backwards to support the markets. Yes they hiked rates, but there’s been lots of jawwing from them to try and support the markets.. I think someone mentioned even the possibility of a cut today..

    Sure smells like 2008, with that said gotta be very careful fighting the fed and CBs..

  • evilasevildoes

    diggin it

  • Sp00nman

    ROFL..

  • HD

    This will be my first IPA and donut close this year. Still feel balanced. Buyers doing well and sellers doing well. Stay objective.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    who said I signed off?
    I’m a 20hr online bot!

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Jason The Bull is “DEAD” LOL!
    JULIEl

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys Adding a small amount to short probe
    JULIE

  • Ted

    Not the point. LOL

  • HD

    Special gift if anyone can name the BOT signature seen in today’s price action.

  • BKXtoZERO

    2 moves near 17 points

  • Ted

    Leading into the drop it smells more like the dot.com bubble. If so the bear will be with us for better than two years with many counter rallies.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    In 2015, I had a position, that took a 25% draw down.

    I don’t intend for it to happen AGAIN.
    πŸ™‚ https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/43731fe9b455ddf26ce3d71b65e4fa193e10722e22a2792cd3cd9816eb9716f5.png

  • Sp00nman

    Anyone care to translate this, someone sent it to me, I’m retarded..

    https://twitter.com/paststat/status/1083014341878673408

  • Ted

    Dang! They managed to save the 8ema.

  • Jason13

    I should save some powder for the overthrow…

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Ignore it. Make your own rules. Finding a piped piper is detrimental.

  • Jason13

    GGBOT?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    that’s right, never go full retard.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    They? come on ted.
    πŸ˜‰

  • Sp00nman

    To a degree yes GG, I don’t blindly follow others, but I still find some stats interesting.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • HD

    Nice. I missed that so bonus. There’s 2 other BOT signatures too.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    They did Ted But indicators rolling over and a trend line break to the downside with the final two 60 min candles with lower highs and lower lows
    JULIE

  • Ted

    Market participants – not the PPT.

  • Ted

    It would make me happy to see a nice gap down tomorrow.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    oh, I remember.
    If you have 1 out of 10 winners, but the-win pays for 10 and then 10 more?
    it’s worth it.
    πŸ˜‰

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SP In a bear market small advances lasting 3 – 5 days is common. Prehaps that is what the tweet is about
    JULIE

  • Sp00nman

    If someone runs some stats and if they come up with a 99% chance of a certain outcome with a large sample size I’d be dumb to at least not let it swirl around a little in my head. :p

  • BKXtoZERO

    How about a guru?

  • Wave_surfer

    It seems confusing to me as well, but it seems his point is simply “5 up days in a row, without a single dip day are very unusual, especially when indexes are below their 200 DMA.”
    That makes sense. But, I wonder if it is unusual for the market to go up for 4 days, then go down 0.2% or something else weak and then do another 4 days up.
    Also, there are times where, after the market has went down strongly 2009, 2011, 2016, 2018, where it then bounces strongly. I wonder if some of those strong bounces after a fall account for some of the 7% he lists.

  • Wave_surfer

    Na, just find a Gerbil made of Gold and follow that!

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    If RSI(2) goes to 98 with his scenario … He is on to something IMO

  • Sp00nman

    Gotcha thx for taking a stab at it. Ya I think he’s saying low odds on 5th day for an up day after 4 straight up days with the SPX under the 200dma. I was trying to figure out the table and actual stats.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Its more economic to get him as big and fat as possible.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Boy you guys are chatty today!

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    He’s got a sample set of 5? Is that it?

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    You keep saying on the way up πŸ˜‰

  • BKXtoZERO

    Less work at work. Things back to normal…..

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    If this was an impulse off the 2346 low The dip on January 3 would be a wave 2 and now a third wave breaking above a baseline.with increasing volume and candles the size of the Sears Tower. This is not the case
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    The Bezos are divorcing ? Hi Mr. Bezos .. I’m Mrs Gerb ! LOL! ! !
    JULIE

  • Wave_surfer

    93% of the time it goes down the next day?
    It really does seem like it could be more clear.
    Also, it looks like he might be tracking his trading??? not the market?? ya.. confusing.

  • Wave_surfer

    I read it as a sample set of 54 and the T+ is referring to how many days in a row the market ended up.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    From the shower in the rain!

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • HD

    Oh no worries. I asked a few days ago when the rally started.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    It’s called Divorce rape.
    poor guy.
    πŸ˜‰

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    into.
    you *do* need an editor.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    must. NOT. post. GRAPHIC.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    USO The 5 ema has crossed above a rising 21 ema which is bullish.Three close above a rising 21 ema is bullish. Volume has been increasing. Perhaps up to the 55 ema and a consolidation between the 21 and 55 ema’s … An In https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/162b4e09fdf6c42058512abd5395caf6d467403fd86c4cf5e20277ade4a500e7.png verted Head and Shoulder Pattern JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    for you, special guy. Dennis Gartman.
    really good. Shhhh. secret.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Wave_surfer

    As I understand it, a couple days ago, it SPX was going to fall several hundred points and now that it has climbed, the chart says it will go up over 100?
    I guess that makes sense in the “when the facts change, my opinions changes” because not changing your opinion when the facts change probably points to a couple of cognitive dissonances.

    Back to my original question.
    Am I correct when I understand that the PnF chart changed from a huge fall to predicting more of a climb because $SPX has climbed enough that the previous bear call has been invalidated?

  • Wave_surfer

    If we are chatty when the market is flat to up, does that mean we are growing up and we are not just perma-bears looking for bear porn?

  • TimeToPanic

    Did someone request bear porn?

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DwgTxWhVsAAoDQU.jpg

  • TimeToPanic

    NQ 50 day MA is just 60 points higher now, plus the downtrend of the falling channel (drawn off the lowest dips to date).

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/uUS7RiL7/

    New moon just passed, it can stretch a while and still hit a full moon low. I still have that Bradley date in my mind, 17th January, I guess it could be a high, would be a bummer, when compared to a crashy low. We will see.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Oooh….grrrrrr

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Bow chicka wow wow

    http://i.imgur.com/OEdvSIx.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX Breaking down from a rising wedge the selling is usually fast and furious. Like I stated in a post yesterday when the institutions bail in a bear market it’s all at once thru the trap door leaving the late bulls and the uninformed O ROAKING ! O ROAK ! As I type the futures are down
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys Wait till SPX breaks down thru the confluence of the 5 and 21 ema’s and lower trend line of the rising wedge OO RROOAAKK! ! Julie positioned nicely opening a short probe on Tuesday’s close and adding to it at today’s close (Wednesday)
    JULIE

  • Ted

    Today’s gain is nearly gone (small caps).

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hi Ted .. The $VIX today showed a little fear Again $VIX at a level below it’s 10 ema where reversals have occurred. $VIX does not have to go to lower Bollinger Band JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/18c54ab0d60163c9e246f3f85231c13ea64d40b30f7b7115372714b75ad60721.png

  • Ted

    IWM made it to the top of the Keltner Channel today. A pullback at the least is in order. I’ll be paying attention at the bottom of the up channel. 1390 or so depending how long it takes.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Good man Ted trend lines are primo. Glad you draw them as I do — GG and other great traders here. Important SPX as referenced earlier broke down thru a very important lower uptrend line this afternoon near the close
    JULIE

  • Ted

    I use both Keltner and BB’s on all my charts regardless of time frame. Once price gets between the two it can really run. Using an hourly chart helps reduce the noise and keep one in the trade.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    $CPCE The equity only P/C Ratio at a level where declines have occurred in this Bear Market i.e. 3 sma and 10 sma of the $CPCE JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/975bb4641e3af8051b7ecc4cd53495dc273451478e4a87056ff07245a073d30b.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Yes Ted The 60 min chart is the most important chart with the weekly and daily I use the 60 min chart exclusively as everyone here knows Art Hill of stockcharts states the 60 min chart is the most important chart of all the charts Bear Market when daily and 60 min charts overbought EXTREME CAUTION as now
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    Air leaking out

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hi BK Glad you had a nice respite in the N Cascades The Oregon Cascades are beautiful too
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Great Trader? who me?
    I just emulate Captain, best I can.
    πŸ˜‰

    Watching the futures gives you an edge, I swear.
    MuwahaHAHA.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/56024fa99b53d02ab4568161c23842643a5421335838144813d5f1197b6bba7b.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Come to EvilSpec, Be a SURVIVOR.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VcSBO8YAnTQ

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    something for you late night rats.

    The SPX follows the 40/80 cycle fairly well.
    so does the NYAD.
    not exactly a Swiss watch. but a nice road map.
    This is the counter trend I was looking for.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/420baf9b259982f431e024f0d12ef06e211c976ecb52cdc0e1f2ba04b19b72ab.png

  • Ted

    LMAO

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    BAC Tomorrow Julie going to blast BAC south .. strong support @ 25.13 matching the daily 21 ema
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    $NYUD (NYSE advance – declining net volume ) has declined with the SPX advancing creating a negative divergence since January 4th Same with $NYAD Rallies are not made with this scenario esp. with declining volume SPY presented in charts earlier https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/15a9b20241b97c29327a4ac4323d6e8f0b978f35c0d54526680e39d5b6ac7fe2.png JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    are you sure?
    the weekly *is* at 50%.
    but next candle should be a doji,
    *then* a reverse down.
    πŸ˜‰

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    fair enough.
    what are the two weakest ones?
    remember? stalk the frail & vulnerable.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    WFC and DB GG
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    ok.

    couldn’t find a sucky bank list. LOL.

    BAC is a big boy.
    https://www.mx.com/moneysummit/biggest-banks-by-asset-size-united-states

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG Boeing (BA) Setting up for a great short in lieu of charts EV and myself shown on previous thread. EV and myself are going to short BA on a reversal candle daily chart. That is all that is required short the next reversal candle probably tomorrow
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    We’ll like I said, you may have missed it.
    I’m going to cut back on single stock comments.

    IMHO, a lot of these Major individual stocks are all tied together into
    the Indexes.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BA&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p5644707204c

    Night.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    You have a great evening too GG
    JULIE

  • Ivan Hrusovsky
  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    That’s one way to describe it, yes. A dip back inside would produce quite some fireworks. BTW, I suggest you use direct image links that disqus is capable of displaying.

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho
  • Wave_surfer

    Follow up: @Sp00nman
    According to our understanding of these (not the most clear) stats, it was almost impossible for the next day to close up.
    As I read it, 93% chance that the next day (today) would close down.
    It closed Up well (.45%)

  • Sp00nman

    Yep, sure did..