So Bloody Bored

It’s been a typical post-squeeze sideways day – and I know how much you all love those. Just kidding – I’m actually glad I had a bunch of errands to run today as I would have been bored out of my mind. Surprisingly however, if you look deeper there are pretty nice setups to be had. Since you all have been suffering I’ll make this a Friday Freebie to cheer you up – so leeches everywhere – rejoice! 😉

Let’s cover the obligatory stuff first. NO, we are not having a VIX buy signal – it died today as we won’t be finishing above yesterday’s close (unless all hell breaks loose in the next hour or so).

Now I know the tape has been tantamount to watching paint dry but we are actually painting a very nice setup here. First up we’ve got an inside day – yes, Mole – tell us something we don’t know. Okay, how about an NR4 to sweeten the deal? You all love those – don’t you? So if you look at my chart you’ll the long entry (1) and the short entry (2) of the inside day. But we also have a NLSL (4) which was breached yesterday and that has been reversed today. I think that gives additional odds to a long break out at (1). And finally we have new low at (3) which is only a few ticks away from our ID short entry (2).

I very much like this setup – but bear in mind that we could be getting a Retest Variation Buy signal here. If you are unsure about the rules then please check the cheat sheet.

Ole’ bucky has been retesting that NLBL we sliced through yesterday. I think that’s a decent long if you missed that ID we played the day before. Just put your stop below the NLBL and be done with it. And yes, if we close back below this may turn into a short trade. Don’t have directional opinions – just trade the tape.

Someone asked me about the inverse H&S on soybean futures yesterday. The short answer is – yes, it’s very much still in play and we are in ‘taking entry zone’ here. Let’s however zoom in a little for more details…

As you can see we have been testing that NLBL and the fact that it’s been holding is in general bullish and may support the possibility of a break out here – at some point. See, the tape has a thing for faking you out – it may dance on that NLBL and then suddenly paint a quick shake out to the downside after which it reverses and takes off. Take the current configuration as a positive sign but be prepared for a shake out attempt – they do happen quite a lot with head & shoulder patterns. Hope this makes sense. In essence – this trade may take some TLC – so if you get in now then be ready to sit through a bit of churn. Which also means you should not take on too much risk here or you will most likely get emotional and head for the hills if things look iffy. However, even then you need to decide on your max pain threshold and that depends on your exposure and your capital commitment guidelines. If that doesn’t mean anything to you then spend the weekend getting up to speed. Google is your friend.

Let’s wrap things up with the USD/CHF – almost the exact inverse situation as we saw on the greenback. It’s easy to be short here with a stop above today’s highs. And flipt that sucker to a long play if we continue higher.

That’s it – enjoy your weekend! I’m getting my A/C installed tomorrow so perhaps I may just do the same.

Cheers,