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Looking Good, Billy Ray!
85

Looking Good, Billy Ray!

by The MoleMay 14, 2018

Despite my best intentions and perfect spring weather I ended up stuck in my evil lair all weekend attending to coding duties and various chores. Suffice to say I am not in the best of mood this morning and putting up a post wasn’t exactly high on my list. But since we’ve got movement I didn’t want to leave you guys hanging, so let’s get to it:

The E-Mini is now officially in short squeeze mode and this may be a great opportunity to reflect on your bearish sentiment a little over a week ago. You know who you are! 😉

However if you were a sub and followed me into the abyss on this and perhaps even the previous long campaign then I suggest you advance your ISL a little, but to leave it enough space for an extended run higher.

Looking good Billy Ray!! Feeling good, Lewis!

Gold is a stop out after it hit my 1R trail near the 1318 mark. It apparently continues to be a major PITA so I guess I really shouldn’t complain as I at least got out with some ill-gotten gain.

As expected last Friday wheat proceeded straight to the woodshed and then didn’t stop as it’s now heading into Hades. Great volatility play this one if you manage to grab it near a turning point.

The one that irks me this morning however is the EUR which I had on my setup list last Friday but as feared didn’t return for a another dip-and-go. If some of my subs managed to grab an entry then advancing your stop to break/even may be good medicine.

I would give this one plenty of space to run however as it’s increasingly looking like a counter squeeze. Much to my chagrin the EUR vs. USD ping-pong game continues unabated.

 

 


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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  • Ronebadger

    So far, VIX is up with this morning’s initial pop

  • ridingwaves

    IBB and XBI could get hot here….I like XBI better as its not weighted down by some big bio stocks that are lagging…

  • ridingwaves

    speaking of Wheat, I’m about ready to add 1/3 back in, getting close to multiple support layers…little room to move further down….but shorting from here would be a gambling…

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I’m watching that in fact.

  • BKXtoZERO

    me too!

  • BKXtoZERO

    L TVIX 5.12 for the day 1R

  • ridingwaves

    ID playing out as its sitting on long term support line

  • BobbyLow

    I shorted /XW at 516.75 last Monday. Current print this AM was 491.75. Don’t know how much further it’ll drop but I’ll hang in short until it after begins to turn around.

  • ridingwaves

    485 if they can push thru 490….its going to be tough sledding from here….
    490 looks solid…but a stop run below makes a lot of cents…

  • BKXtoZERO
  • BobbyLow

    Either way is OK. Believe it or not, because Wheat Futures trade during wierd hours, 9:30 AM to 2:20 PM and then reopen again at 8 PM until 7:30 AM to 8:30 AM Eastern Time, I found that I can do just as good if not better by making my decisions based on charting WEAT (3 Hour Charts ) Purests might say I’m full of shit but in this case, charting WEAT has a smoothing effect and works good for me. I’m using a very wide stop on the Futures and am able to make my trades during regular day time trading hours based on what’s happening with WEAT. Also when it comes time to go long, I’ll buy both /XW Futures and WEAT.

    On other fronts, I’m still long Crude via UCO and am in the process of forward testing /QM AGAIN. I don’t give up easily. 🙂 Also as Mole said Gold has been a PITA . I’m currently up about 6 Points on /MGC and up a little on UGLD but this trade looks shaky at best.

  • ridingwaves

    the dollar is the variable of all variables for commodities now…seems we are the only country not punting right now, the rest of the g-7 still in .0% hell…
    keeps going up and SHTF moment is not that far in the distance…

    good trading BL…

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    As Ronebadger pointed out below Perhaps a little apprehension with the $VIX

  • BKXtoZERO

    VIX back to the low of the candle that started it all back in January, 12.85 https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/a35254223064ed457dd627a3606ec299c5283b1c71f61c00bff029dbf814c585.jpg

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG Checkout GILD Yup !
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    Well they also took out that little divergence with a lower low. GG posted some VIX charts to Julie/RB re VIX over the weekend. That VIX low from 2011 didn’t scream bottom. The tails were toppy looking, not bottoming type, no hammer, yet that was the low.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Nice trade. just looked.

  • ridingwaves

    your wanting it to be the low per your description above….the recent flash crash crazy candle low was 10.92…that might be where you want to play it….

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    that’s better.
    however, you may be facing some overhead resistance.
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/db0077ec5b27618e9789d6e13a2d4bbe5f9151497446353e3f80baed41aa7a5d.png .

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    BAC A strong resistance 31.08 Next resistance 31.46 matching lower gap window and upper Keltner Channel JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/e1db658857f7dfc481d43f156e6737a31a6f5f49a83ebd0dc88124abb02a2847.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    I have 1/4 position long GDX Holding support and it’s daily 5 ema JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/94ae2941bbddd206f1bf48a6c5c40f83b504a2e5e04496c615b8143c0f912b17.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    USO Resistance 14.46 Support 14.23 Observe the https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/905a14f0d884dc087ab80e26b9e4e38556f294fb4eb7c9e261a66d226ee6f650.png bounces and support off the 21 ema and the importance of the 5 ema. Guys the rising wedge will play out esp with the volume pattern. A bearish close below the 5 ema will initiate selling JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG Target 69
    JULIE

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Like an idiot I kept posting in the previous thread – LOL :-))

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    … and wondering why nobody responds!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Blame on Monday…or your old head injury.
    😉

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/72e99a0d50838ada5119ad09f84b68619adc8fd38d8c6ab31f2065c08f1587c8.png Going to get interesting NOW Exactly at a 61.8% retracement and Fib Arc I posted a 2750 target previous posts JULIE

  • Trouzzer_Snake

    The current 8hr chart is looking rather bearish in my opinion. The fact that it breached the high, has retraced, and is below VWAP makes me skeptic. I’m short at 2736.50 with a 10 handle stop.

  • BKXtoZERO

    you are too much. You said you had a hard weekend/no rest….. that’l do it.

  • Mark Shinnick

    All this action is since the last volatility paradigm since February.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX Is the wild ride about to resume ? SPX 61.8% retracement ; upper channel and upper band Keltner Channel Overbought JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/469f1c8cb27240ded39d7f9038c9d3c1e2c4842d13a257106f5c145d757a122f.png

  • Ronebadger

    BIG BEAR flag?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    the red keltner is a good approximation. However, in January, it under performed in containing price.

    ps. I like to set the ATR equal to the ema. (21,2.0,21)

  • mSquare

    Why target just a $69? Why not fill the gap and touch your next trendline from under in high-$71s/low-$72?

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    RW I may short EXAS If a bearish close below it’s daily 5 ema approx. 51.66 JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/3edffb43ad210a4a8903718f2a1e2245e081a976d2a00f429c1b94d98cc05e01.png

  • BKXtoZERO

    I see how you earned your reputation LOL

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    (two months down, two months up..)

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX Just 8 pts below my 2750 target …. Love it Getting ready to short
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    may not get there……

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Love those U.S. Drillers adding more oil rigs . Keep those pipelines full Boys ! The Iranian oil will find the Black Market. China ; Japan and Asia gonna buy it

    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG IBB right up to our 108 target from posts on previous thread and Poof ! Love it !
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Here’s is one for ya guys XHB The Homebuilders Weekly Chart A bullish falling wedge pattern down to (1) support (2) 89 ema (3) 50% retracement Oversold JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/a3e7f361d6d5bf44859732d9febc271935ae07927ee7edd14c6949c534d4eb7f.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    EDIT 50% retracement not 38.2% retracement
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Yup Getting ready to short BKX
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Thanks GG Good one Bro !
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    XHB 40 RSI on the weekly too
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG CSCO Possible breakout point failure setting up as discussed on previous thread Love it GG! JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/0dc0f2414821ceb25314f91081135539c793ca02bcf8dab117dd31b6871f7524.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    it’s the strongest bull in the corral. it’s a trap!
    the 21 will prevail.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG TSLA discussed on previous thread Love it GG The 311 resistance weekly confluence 21 and 55 ema’s and said watch for the dump below the daily 21 ema. there ya have it Bro ! Love it GG ! JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/08f667201260128441ee7dd387f33ff7060bdcbf6b5cf78b0ac27f8529015ebb.png

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Slow Monday – if it wasn’t for Julie it’d be tumbleweeds here. Where’s everyone?

  • Trouzzer_Snake

    First area of possible oversold bounce approaching. Watching my short closely!

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG CSCO https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/81ac3b6b43e70cff1728dd29c58b3a8be90446b381512ac58f2cf115e142c697.png The 21 ema will match a lower trend line Also watch the 38.2% retracement matching another lower trend line As Always watch the 55 ema. Also if corrective pulling back watch the 5,3,3 Stochs JULIE

  • BobbyLow

    Not much to say except that I too got stopped on Long Gold for about +.5R. I’m still Short Wheat and it has saved the day. My Long in Crude is begining to look tired but not ready to flip it yet. It is appearing to have amazing resilience.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Everyone How do I cure the disqus problem Must refresh continually to read posts ? Never had the problem before
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    Trying to listen more than talk. One learns more that way. I could post charts of Triangles if you want?

  • BobbyLow

    What Browser are you using? I used to have problems with disgus until I switched over to Chrome and it’s been working good ever since.

  • BKXtoZERO

    I tried telling everyone last week!

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    BL I am still short USO (small position) Not going to be run off — No Way
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Thanks BL Will do
    JULIE

  • BobbyLow

    I think we’re looking at Crude through two different lenses Julie and that’s OK. I’m looking at it from the strength of an ongoing trend based on my time frame. My trend should eventually stop and reverse. However, I won’t go short until it does.

    I’m currently forward testing a much faster chart on /QM Futures and once and if I go live with it it will be possible for me to be short intra day and long on a swing. We’ll see what happens.

    Again we have different views on this. I don’t work perceived resistence/support levels. I buy strength and sell weakness instead. There are times that we’ll be on the same side of a trade and other times when we will not.

    In a way, it’s all subjective dependent upon time frame and what the viewer deems as the most important things. Nothing and I mean nothing is absolute.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    USO OBV beginning to rollover on daily chart
    JULIE

  • HD

    Afternoon all, looking left the 2732 area is muey importante.

    OPEX week.

  • HD

    Yes! 61.8%. Good eyes Julie

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    BAC Watching the close 31.12 support
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    TNX hanging right at 3% and threatening….. in other news TSLA heading down.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    BKX I read an interesting article explaining how TNX 2 pts above it’s low has spelled trouble. Two points above it’s 1.4 low is 3.4
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36
  • BKXtoZERO

    VIX closed positive….

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Shorting BAC small position Declining volume Failure at the 61.8% retracement and 31.12 resistance. Overbought
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    And top of it;s Bollinger band $one:$vix
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GDX Bouncing off conversion line (8) and baseline (21) holding a support https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c3a52df6c3db87c9019412dbdb7f914c0a3c0a0bc723c8c7e398df231a09e0b5.png JULIE

  • Ronebadger
  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Correct. Now we need one higher close to confirm the signal.

  • Ronebadger

    Worked the last time for a few days…but, never closed over the BB mid-line. Staying in the top half of the BBs is key in my book to sustained downdraft in equities.

  • BKXtoZERO

    TVIX diverged and did not, but who cares about that POS…..

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    There I am, surfing through a small set of my favorite Tumblr locations
    and this, *THIS* fly’s across my screen.

    Wasn’t somebody talking about the wonderful, timeless design just a few days ago?

    Wasn’t somebody else, talking about how much they love the Winter snow?

    I swear, the Matrix is Real, and it has a freaky no, perverse sense of humor.

    Life is a comedy, and unfortunately, I’m the punch line.
    I need a drink.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/d7a982dcf9349039bd4e3bc0bab4d254d2ed748b9043799523e4c22027536f1c.png
    -GG

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG Love driving in the winter snow ……. VROOOOOMMM !
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36